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PREDICTIONS: 2024 WIAC Outdoor Championships

  • Conor Daly
  • May 2, 2024
  • 9 min read

Predictions & analysis by Conor Daly

Additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin & Gavin Struve

With the Division Three and Division Two conference championships officially beginning last weekend and finishing next weekend, we opted to focus on a handful of meets taking place later this week (at least for the ones that we were able to acquire performance lists for).


The Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (WIAC) is one of Division Three's most competitive distance running conferences despite all of its member institutions and athletes residing in one state. Here's how D3 writer Conor Daly foresees the distance races playing out at the WIAC Outdoor Championships in Platteville, Wisconsin this weekend.

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).


Men's 800 Meters

  1. Cael Schoemann (UW-La Crosse) - 1:50

  2. Sam Verkerke (UW-Eau Claire) - 1:50

  3. Braedon Gilles (UW-Stevens Point) - 1:51

  4. Steven Potter (UW-Oshkosh)* - 1:52

  5. Michael Madoch (UW-La Crosse)* - 1:52


Analysis: This one is going to be a treat as this race features a rematch between the indoor national champion and indoor national runner-up finisher in Cael Schoemann and Sam Verkerke, respectively. And let’s not forget that the man who was in 6th place in that postseason showdown, Braedon Gilles, is set to race here as well. Schoemann has run considerably faster than the others so far on the outdoor oval, but every time these guys race, it’s been stunningly close.


The rest of the field is no slouch either thanks to a pair of 1500-meter specialists. Steven Potter did not race this past winter due to being out of eligibility, but he’s a name who has flown under the radar so far this outdoor track season. Potter is a 3:46 (1500) runner at his best and finished just over a second behind Gilles in an 800-meter race just a few weeks back.


Michael Madoch looks as sharp as ever over 1500 meters which should only mean good things for him for the two-lapper. Other men with a good chance at cracking the top-five include Parker Heintz and Dwight Hosni who both did so at the 2024 indoor edition of this meet.


Women’s 800 Meters

  1. Cyna Madigan (UW-Oshkosh) - 2:10

  2. Maddie Hannan (UW-La Crosse) - 2:11

  3. Greta Koehler (UW-La Crosse)* - 2:11

  4. Libby Geisness (UW-Oshkosh) - 2:14

  5. Anna Schueth (UW-Eau Claire) - 2:15


Analysis: Cyna Madigan and Maddie Hannan are no strangers to battling each other at the conference meet. However, Madigan has gotten the better of Hannan in this event at the last two conference championships on the track. The UW-Oshkosh talent has run 2:11 in her last three attempts at the half-mile distance.


Greta Koehler will be looking to join that front duo. She’s usually a better runner on the outdoor oval than during the indoor track season and is ahead of where she was at this point last year which culminated in a 2:09 (800) personal best.


The hunt for bronze also includes Libby Geisness who’s arguably the most underrated name in the field. She’s a national qualifier over 800 meters and is coming off of personal bests in the 400 meters and the metric mile. We can’t forget about UW-Eau Claire talent Anna Schueth who is a very consistent name hoping to crack the top-five.


Men’s 1500 Meters

  1. Christian Patzka (UW-Whitewater)* - 3:49

  2. Justin Krause (UW-Whitewater)* - 3:50

  3. Derek Penzkover (UW-Stevens Point) - 3:50

  4. Michael Madoch (UW-La Crosse)* - 3:51

  5. Steven Potter (UW-Oshkosh)* - 3:51


Analysis: While several different men are in the hunt for the win, Christian Patzka seems to have a resume that is just a bit more impressive than the rest of this field. The UW-Whitewater ace was the mile champion at the 2024 WIAC Indoor Championships and holds the fastest 1500-meter personal best in the field. His teammate, Justin Krause, has not been his 3:46 (1500) self in 2024, but has been looking closer to that form in the spring. Although Derek Penzkover is a lesser-known name, he’s been having a breakout outdoor track campaign so far this spring.


This race also features national-caliber names like Michael Madoch and Steven Potter who are veterans on the WIAC scene. Madoch won the mile title at the indoor conference meet in 2022. And between the 1500 meters and the mile, Potter has won three WIAC titles. Realistically, they are just as likely as any to come out on top as anyone else.


We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention that the 9th-place mile finisher from the 2024 NCAA Indoor Championships, Aidan Manning, will be running this event fresh. He’s struggled so far on the outdoor oval, but he has the upside to be (almost) as good as anyone in this field.


Women’s 1500 Meters

  1. Amelia Lehman (UW-Oshkosh)* - 4:37

  2. Mikayla Hady (UW-Eau Claire)* - 4:38

  3. Ari De La Cerda (UW-Whitewater)* - 4:38

  4. Greta Koehler (UW-La Crosse)* - 4:40

  5. Sierra Rabe (UW-La Crosse)* - 4:40


Analysis: Amelia Lehman should take the win here pretty easily, presumably. The 7th-place mile finisher from the 2024 indoor national meet could conceivably find success by either running hard from the gun or waiting for a kick. 


One name who is due for a big performance thanks to her recent momentum is Mikayla Hady of UW-Eau Claire. She’s a speed-based miler which makes her dangerous in a tactical affair. Another woman to look out for in a potential kick finish is Greta Koehler who has run as fast as 2:09 for 800 meters.


Ari De La Cerda of UW-Whitewater was a recent national qualifier in the mile and could be in contention for silver if she is able to rebound from racing the steeplechase a day before this final. Let’s not forget about UW-La Crosse teammates Sierra Rabe and Gwen Hinz who will both look to be in the lead pack.


Men’s 5000 Meters

  1. Joey Sullivan (UW-La Crosse) - 14:26

  2. Adam Loenser (UW-La Crosse)* - 14:29

  3. Mason Shea (UW-Eau Claire)* - 14:31

  4. Aidan Matthai (UW-La Crosse)* - 14:37

  5. Matthew Thomas (UW-Stout)* - 14:37


Analysis: It’s going to be a race of tired legs by the time the last distance event comes around. With a steeplechase or 10k in the books for many of these competitors, Joey Sullivan’s fresh legs could prove enough to give him the edge. He is, after all, a 14:14 (5k) man at his best. Adam Loenser and Mason Shea are a pair of steeplechasers who should be present at the front of this race, each capable of winning on a good day.


Aidan Matthai hasn’t looked all that much like himself this outdoor track season which leaves us a bit concerned about how capably he will be able to score for his team. Even still, throughout the academic year, he’s shown us that he’s so aerobically strong that he shouldn’t be counted out. Fresh off of significant 5k and 10k personal bests, UW-Stout junior Matthew Thomas is a name who's new to the scene as of this month.


Women’s 5000 Meters

  1. Amelia Lehman (UW-Oshkosh)* - 17:28

  2. Madelynn McIntyre (UW-La Crosse)* - 17:58

  3. Morgan Dahl (UW-Eau Claire)* - 18:06

  4. Ari De La Cerda (UW-Whitewater)* - 18:08

  5. Olivia Donohue (UW-Stout)* - 18:14


Analysis: As we discussed with Amelia Lehman in our 1500-meter analysis, she’s just significantly better than the rest of the field. She should have no problem claiming her second WIAC title on the day. Behind her, it’s anyone’s race.


Madelynn McIntyre is destined to thrive considering that she doubled to a pair of top-five finishes at the 2024 WIAC Indoor Championships. Another runner who is accustomed to doubling is UW-Eau Claire veteran Morgan Dahl who is fresh off of 5k and 10k personal bests.


Ari De La Cerda will likely be in her third event of the weekend here, but is talented enough to remain in the mix. Olivia Donohue is another strong name, although she is scheduled to attempt her first-ever 10k the previous night. 


Men’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Gunner Schlender (UW-Whitewater)* - 30:39

  2. Corey Fairchild (UW-La Crosse)* - 30:41

  3. Isaac Wegner (UW-La Crosse)* - 30:41

  4. Matthew Thomas (UW-Stout)* - 30:45

  5. Dan Anderson (UW-Whitewater)* - 30:50


Analysis: While most conference 10k races are tactical affairs, this one may not be since 29:05 (10k) man Gunner Schlender sits outside of a national qualifying position. Even so, I don't feel that it’s likely enough that Schlender (and potentially his teammates) will make this race fast to predict times befitting of a time-trial-style race.


Schlender is the class of the field, particularly after he showed us during the winter that he has more speed than ever. Of course, that’s not to say that UW-La Crosse teammates Corey Fairchild and Isaac Wegner won’t give him a handful to deal with. That duo went comfortably under the 30:00 barrier for this event just two weeks back. It will be exciting to see all three national-level talents facing off in their main event.


As we mentioned in the 5k analysis, Matthew Thomas has had a huge month which makes him one of the more exciting, but variable, racers in the field. There’s also underclassman Dan Anderson, who has run a PR in his last four races and could be due to match or improve upon his 4th-place finish in this event from the 2023 WIAC Outdoor Championships.


Aidan Matthai’s cross country resume suggests he could be in contention, but his last two 10k outings were a 30:30 mark and a "DNF" result which leaves some concern.


Women’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Madelynn McIntyre (UW-La Crosse)* - 36:10

  2. Ava Matejcek (UW-Eau Claire)* - 36:29

  3. Mallory Reiser (UW-La Crosse)* - 36:34

  4. Morgan Dahl (UW-Eau Claire)* - 36:41

  5. Arely Jaime Luevano (UW-Stout)* - 36:42


Analysis: It’s not all that often that the top-nine seeds in a race all go head-to-head over the same distance twice in a few weeks. That, however, is exactly the case in the WIAC women’s 10k thanks to UW-La Crosse's Phil Esten Challenge. There was a clear top-five in that race, but the 2nd place through 5th place finishers were all very close.


The top WIAC finisher in that setting was Madelyn McIntyre by a good margin. With a runner-up conference meet finish in this event a year ago (behind now-graduated Rachel Krouse), she enters as the title favorite.


Mallory Reiser and Ava Matejcek are two runners who have had prolonged absences, but are back and seemingly in form to score. The former has raced twice since the cross country season and the latter has only raced once this spring. That leaves a lot of upside for both, but they also hold some risk since they've produced fewer data points to be analyzed.


Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Christian Patzka (UW-Whitewater)* - 8:48

  2. Adam Loenser (UW-La Crosse)* - 8:50

  3. Mason Shea (UW-Eau Claire)* - 8:58

  4. Mason Brown (UW-La Crosse)* - 8:58

  5. Jayden Zywicki (UW-La Crosse)* - 9:02


Analysis: Featuring six men who hold personal bests under 9:00, the WIAC men’s steeplechase is arguably the most competitive event at this meet. At the front, we’ll keep an eye on the battle between arguably the two best steeplechasers in Division Three right now. We’re talking about defending national champion Christian Patzka and Adam Loenser, the latter of whom recently posted a breakthrough 8:44 mark.


Behind that duo, there’s a long list of men fighting for the bronze medal. Mason Shea has been a national-level steeplechaser in the past, although he didn’t look overly sharp in his one attempt at the event this season. But if his indoor track season indicates anything, it’s that he’s as fit as ever. It’s the same story with Jake Krause who hasn’t looked to be in peak form in his two steeplechase races this outdoor track season.


Conversely, in just his first collegiate outdoor track season and second-ever attempt at the event, Mason Brown ran a huge 8:56 mark two weeks ago. His teammate, Jayden Zywicki, also had a very impressive recent race in which he eclipsed the 9:00 barrier at that same meet.


Also, keep an eye on Elias Ritzke and Luke Chaffin, a pair of men who ran under 9:10 last year. Caden Schneider is another interesting name who ran 9:16 in his first-ever attempt at the steeplechase a few weeks ago and could be full of upside when he gets used to the event.


Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Katelyn Chadwick (UW-La Crosse) - 10:40

  2. Brekkyn Lammert (UW-Stout)* - 11:05

  3. Mckayla Felton (UW-Stout) - 11:07

  4. Gracie Buchinger (UW-Oshkosh)* - 11:07

  5. Ari De La Cerda (UW-Whitewater)* - 11:12


Analysis: It’s no secret that Katelyn Chadwick (UW-La Crosse) is the clear favorite in the field. Truthfully, it would take a heroic effort to upset her. Both of her steeplechase races this spring are well ahead of anything the rest of the field has posted this year. 


Mckayla Felton (UW-Stout) has only contested the steeplechase three times before, but with sub-4:40 (1500) and sub-17:00 (5k) credentials, she is presumably racing at her ideal distance. The fact that she hasn't tackled the barriers and water pits this year certainly concerns us a bit, but she employed the same strategy at last year's WIAC meet to place 5th in this event.


Similar to Felton, Ari De La Cerda has not run the 3000-meter steeplechase this year, but looks to improve upon a 4th-place finish from the 2023 WIAC Outdoor Championships. National finalist Maddy Vantassel is another name with a rich history in this event, but has not been close to matching that level of performance since.


Brekkyn Lammert is a wildcard of sorts, having contested her first steeplechase two weeks ago when she beat most of the field that she will face this weekend. Will she be able to replicate that performance in a championship setting? Will she improve drastically?

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