PREDICTIONS: 2024 Ohio Athletic Conference Outdoor Championships (Delayed)

Gavin Struve
May 2, 2024
6 min read

Predictions & analysis by Gavin Struve, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

NOTE: The Stride Report is aware that the OAC Outdoor Championships have already kicked-off. However, we were able to post these predictions just before the first distance events began. Please note that some of these results (mainly the steeplechase and 10k) will have already been finalized by the time you read them.

With the Division Three and Division Two conference championships officially beginning last weekend and finishing next weekend, we opted to focus on a handful of meets taking place later this week (at least for the ones that we were able to acquire performance lists for).

The Ohio Athletic Conference (OAC) Championships -- with distance events running from Thursday, May 2nd evening through Friday, May 3rd -- look quietly competitive and feature a small handful of national-caliber stars. Here's how our D2/D3 editor Gavin Struve envisions the distance races playing out in Tiffin, Ohio.

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*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Men's 800 Meters

1. Caleb Correia (John Carroll) - 1:51

2. Trey Myers (Ohio Northern) - 1:52

3. Curtis Joppeck (Mount Union) - 1:52

4. Ian Paul (John Carroll)* - 1:53

5. Vova Herdman (Heidelberg) - 1:54

Analysis: Caleb Correia is the only 800-meter All-American listed in this field, but he also didn't seem far from that form before he slipped to a 5th-place finish in last year's OAC Outdoor Championship half-mile race. Defending outdoor conference champion Trey Myers is back and could push Correia as a 1:51 man, but he hasn't quite exhibited that level of fitness in 2024.

Curtis Joppeck took silver behind Correia at the 2024 OAC Indoor Championships and ran 1:52 (800) twice in the month of April. However, John Carroll's Ian Paul ran even faster last week with a 1:52.39 mark.

Women’s 800 Meters

1. Hope Murphy (Baldwin Wallace)* - 2:13

2. Mary Mason (Mount Union) - 2:13

3. Ellie Kitsmiller (John Carroll) - 2:14

4. Claire Eberhardt (John Carroll)* - 2:15

5. Kenadee Wayt (Mount Union)* - 2:16

Analysis: Like Correia on the men's side, Hope Murphy is the class of the OAC women's 800-meter scene, but to an even larger extent. She's won the past six OAC Championship half-mile races that she has contested and was the indoor national meet runner-up over that distance this past winter.

Mount Union's Mary Mason joined Murphy at the 2024 indoor national meet after finishing as the OAC indoor half-mile runner-up. Ellie Kitsmiller held that status last May before settling for OAC bronze back in March. This particular race, with a top heat comprised of all juniors, has quite a bit of carryover of the top 800-meter finishers from the past couple of conference meets.

Men’s 1500 Meters

1. Vincent Giumenti (Mount Union)* - 3:51

2. Mason Kutz (Mount Union)* - 3:53

3. Jack Root (John Carroll) - 3:55

4. Gehrig Stanley (Baldwin Wallace) - 3:55

5. Ian Paul (John Carroll)* - 3:55

Analysis: Vincent Giumenti is an experienced veteran, the top returner from this race in 2023 and the OAC indoor mile champion from this past March. He also has a level of range that should allow him to win his first OAC 1500-meter title in a variety of different race scenarios.

The Mount Union runner could be in line to near his 3:49 PR, but it's unclear who will push him to that. Mason Kutz, Giumenti's teammate, may be capable of that push given he has run as fast as 3:51 in the metric mile and was the bronze medalist at the 2024 OAC indoor mile final. John Carroll and Baldwin Wallace each have a couple of men capable of running 3:55 or faster and nabbing the bronze medal or a top-five finish.

Women’s 1500 Meters

1. Hope Murphy (Baldwin Wallace)* - 4:34

2. Gianini Venuto (Mount Union)* - 4:41

3. Claire Eberhardt (John Carroll)* - 4:42

4. Abby Matthews (Ohio Northern)* - 4:48

5. Erin Smith (Mount Union)* - 4:49

Analysis: Believe it or not, Hope Murphy is arguably an even bigger favorite for the metric mile title than she is for the half-mile crown. The Baldwin Wallace ace has 4:26 (1500) chops and will dictate how she wins this race. With Faith Duncan focusing on the longer distances, Gianini Venuto is the top returner (beyond Murphy) from both the 2023 OAC Outdoor Championships 1500 (4th) and the 2024 OAC indoor mile (3rd).

However, Claire Eberhardt has the second-fastest PR in this field after running 4:36 to win on this very track a few weeks ago. Abby Matthews, Annie Higgins and Erin Smith, all equipped with experience, seem poised to battle for the final top-five spots.

Men’s 5000 Meters

1. Simon Heys (Wilmington (OH))* - 14:15

2. Ethan Domitrovich (John Carroll) - 14:26

3. Tommy Naiman (John Carroll)* - 14:37

4. Dominic Delmoro (John Carroll)* - 14:39

5. John Nice (Otterbein)* - 14:42

Analysis: Beyondthe expected winner Simon Heys of Wilmington (OH), this could wind up looking like an OAC cross country meet with John Carroll dominating the front of the race. The most accomplished of those Blue Streaks runners, Ethan Domitrovich, is more proven over the middle distances, but is placing his sole focus on the 5k this week and thus could be rewarded with an improvement on his 14:35 PR.

Women’s 5000 Meters

1. Faith Duncan (Wilmington (OH))* - 17:12

2. Kennedy Rader (Ohio Northern)* - 17:41

3. AnnaSophia Gower (Ohio Northern)* - 17:43

4. Gianini Venuto (Mount Union)* - 18:01

5. Samantha Roth (Ohio Northern) - 18:03

Analysis: This race is less wide-open than one might expect given the top-four finishers from last year's OAC Outdoor Championships 5k are all gone. In a departure from the norm in other OAC distance races, Ohio Northern has the top duo in the women's 5000 meters. Unfortunately for those Polar Bears, they'll likely be relegated to 2nd and 3rd place because Faith Duncan (Wilmington (OH)) is the heavy favorite just as her teammate Simon Heys is on the men's side.

The recent 3k All-American holds the NCAA #9 mark over 5000 meters this spring and should run away from Ohio Northern's Kennedy Rader and AnnaSophia Gower. The aforementioned Gianini Venuto's speed should put her in the podium mix here, too.

Men’s 10,000 Meters

1. Simon Heys (Wilmington (OH))* - 30:03

2. Ryan Champa (John Carroll)* - 30:14

3. John Nice (Otterbein)* - 30:41

4. Dominic Delmoro (John Carroll)* - 31:31

5. Tommy Naiman (John Carroll)* - 31:39

Analysis: This race should be the first half of Simon Heys' double-gold medal week and will feature some other usual suspects already detailed in the above 5k analysis. Ryan Champa is my expected runner-up after a strong fall 2023 campaign in which he took bronze at the OAC XC Championships and finished as an individual All-American. He gets better as the distance increases and could improve upon his 30:18 (10k) PR if Heys keeps this pace somewhat honest.

Women’s 10,000 Meters

1. Faith Duncan (Wilmington (OH))* - 35:58

2. Kennedy Rader (Ohio Northern)* - 36:23

3. Ashley Hockstok (Ohio Northern)* - 36:24

4. Sarah Weldon (John Carroll)* - 37:58

5. Megan Vapenik (Ohio Northern)* - 38:49

Analysis: Similar to the women's 5k, the top-three finishers from the 2023 OAC Outdoor Championships 10k have departed. That leaves Ashley Hockstok as the top returner. Her teammate, Kennedy Rader, was one spot behind her in that race last yea, but ran faster than Hockstok this season in a 10k race. However, Faith Duncan is entered to make her 10k debut this weekend and is thus the presumptive favorite. Exactly half of the 10k entrants don't have a seed time.

Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

1. Cormac Peppard-Kramer (John Carroll) - 9:14

2. Braden Schaser (Ohio Northern)* - 9:23

3. Jeff Joseph (Mount Union)* - 9:29

4. Donovan Slattery (Capital) - 9:32

5. Garrett Miller (Otterbein)* - 9:33

Analysis: This looks like the most wide-open distance race at this year's OAC Outdoor Championships. Mount Union's Jeff Joseph is one of the most accomplished individuals in this field as well as the top returner from last year. However, he has raced the 3000-meter steeplechase just once this spring and was over 30 seconds off of his best mark in the event.

Cormac Peppard-Kramer is not quite two years removed from earning a bronze medal in this event at the NCAA Outdoor Championships and has posted respectable, but modest, results this spring after racing just once in the past two academic years leading up to this season. Braden Schaser of Ohio Northern holds the field's fastest seasonal best with a 9:29 mark.

Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

1. Natalie Armbruster (Ohio Northern) - 11:36

2. Grace McKoon (John Carroll) - 11:43

3. Elizabeth Mak (Capital) - 11:56

4. Kelsey Sheridan (John Carroll) - 12:08

5. Sydney Wingler (John Carroll) - 12:19

Analysis: This is another event without the top few finishers returning from the 2023 OAC Outdoor Championships. John Carroll's Sydney Wingler, a freshman last year, is the top returnee, but hasn't come close to her personal best in two steeplechase races in 2024.

Natalie Armbruster enters this meet as the favorite given she has the fastest seed time as the only OAC woman to dip under 12 minutes this spring which she did en route to winning the D3 All-Ohio Championships. John Carroll freshman Grace McKoon holds the second-fastest mark.