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PREDICTIONS: 2024 Mountain West XC Championships
- Rachel Hickey
- Oct 31, 2024
- 6 min read
Written by Rachel Hickey, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
The Mountain West has quietly become one of the better cross country conferences in the nation. While overall talent in the league isn't quite as plentiful as it is in the major powers, there are often multiple teams in this conference who are able to make it to the national meet.
In fact, in certain years, Mountain West teams have fought for top-10 finishes on that stage and even podium spots.
However, the Mountain West will look very different two years from now when Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Utah State and San Diego State all depart for the soon-to-be revamped PAC-12.
But until then, we'll enjoy the fireworks that this conference has in store for us on Friday...
Women’s Individual Race (6k)
Pamela Kosgei (New Mexico)
Kaiya Robertson (Boise State)
Natalie Bitetti (New Mexico)
Mercy Kirarei (New Mexico)
Yasmin Marghini (Boise State)
Emma Thornley (Utah State)
Quinn McConnell (Colorado State)
Anna Petr (Colorado State)
Klara Dess (New Mexico)
Emily Jobes (Boise State)
Ally Peterson (Air Force)
Sophia McDonnell (New Mexico)
Shelby Jensen (Utah State)
Kensey May (Colorado State)
Autumn Ost (Boise State)
Chiara Pedol (Fresno State)
Annalee Weaver (Utah State)
Tilly Simpson (New Mexico)
Halle Hamilton (Air Force)
Hanna Bruckmeyer (New Mexico)
Analysis: It is Pamela Kosgei’s world and the rest of the conference is just living in it.
Kosgei, Our current TSR #2 individual, has wowed us in her first NCAA appearances, entering the Mountain West with an undefeated record after winning the Cowboy Jamboree, and more impressively, Pre-Nationals.
There is (almost) no way we see Kosgei losing this race.
Behind her, the battle for silver will likely be between Lobo teammates Natalie Bitetti and Mercy Kirarei as well as Bosie State's Kaiya Robertson.
Robertson made the “Honorable Mentions” portion of our individual rankings after an impressive 6th-place performance at the Arturo Barrios Invite against some national-caliber names. She was also quietly excellent at the Joe Piane Invite. The rising Bronco standout will likely lead the chase behind Kosgei along with her teammates who have been subtly clutch so far this fall.
Of course, this is also assuming Lobo All-American Nicola Jansen, who is listed in the original declarations, will not toe the line, as we have yet to see her race this fall. However, if she does end up debuting and is at least near top form, then Jansen would also be in the conversation behind Kosgei for a runner-up result (or at least a top-five finish).
Other names such as Yasmin Marghini of Boise State, Emma Thornley of Utah State and Quinn McConnell of Colorado State will also find themselves within the chase pack and should be on the watchlist ahead of the weekend.
Men’s Individual Race (8k)
Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)
Camren Todd (Utah State)
Vincent Chirchir (New Mexico)
Collins Kiprotich (New Mexico)
Jacob White (Wyoming)
Spencer Nelson (Utah State)
Mason Norman (Wyoming)
Evans Kiplagat (New Mexico)
Max Sannes (Air Force)
Lars Mitchel (Colorado State)
Rikus Van Niekerk (New Mexico)
Joe Hudson (Boise State)
Ryker Holtzen (Wyoming)
Tom Graham-Mar (Boise State)
Michael Mooney (Colorado State)
LJ Floyd (Utah State)
Tom Patrick (Boise State)
Joshua McKee (Utah State)
Zach Ayers (Air Force)
Gus McIntyre (Wyoming)
Analysis: Can anyone beat Habtom Samuel?
In this race, it’s highly unlikely that anyone will upset our TSR #1 name for the Mountain West title. Samuel did, after all, run away from the biggest field of the regular season to reign victorious at Pre-Nationals.
So, with this race truly being a battle for silver, we turn our attention to Vincent Chirchir of New Mexico (TSR #36) and Camren Todd of Utah State (TSR #44).
Todd is a true veteran who has looked the best that he ever has this season with an impressive 17th place finish at Pre-Nationals. Not only that, but he secured a win at Paul Short beforehand, giving us reason to believe that his recent success is no fluke.
Admittedly, New Mexico's Vincent Chirchir finished ahead of him two weeks prior. However, Todd’s experience could give him the upper-hand in a championship-style race.
On the other hand, of course, one could argue that Chirchir’s advantage will be that his teammate, Habtom Samuel, will ultimately be in control of this race and he has more familiarity with his training partner. Either way, this will be an exciting race unfolding behind Samuel.
Fellow Lobo ace Collins Kiprop and Wyoming low-stick Jacob White have what it take to round out the top-five in this field and should be within the spread out chase pack behind the leaders. Don't sleep on Max Sannes of Air Force, either. On his best day, he can absolutely crack the top-five.
Women’s Team Race
New Mexico Lobos
Boise State Broncos
Utah State Aggies
Colorado State Rams
Air Force Falcons
Analysis: This should be two-for-two on New Mexico titles this weekend as the women enter the Mountain West XC Championships far ahead of any other program in this field.
With Kosgei likely set to win the individual title, the Lobos will pack Natalie Bitetti, Mercy Kirarei and Klara Dess into the top-10. On paper, that should be enough overwhelming scoring to fend off pretty much any other team in this field.
Sophia McDonnell will likely round out scoring for New Mexico. And relative to a large field like Pre-Nationals, she should be much closer to the pack of her teammates. Nicola Jansen is also listed in the entries for New Mexico, but we would be shocked to see her race since she has yet to do so this fall. Of course, her return would only add more firepower to this already-loaded team.
The battle behind New Mexico should be tight for runner-up honors, but Boise State looks to have had the best track record so far this fall and should have enough overall scoring value in their top-five to pull off a 2nd-place finish.
Kaiya Robertson and the best version of Yasmin Marghini add great firepower to the front of the Broncos' lineup. However, maybe more importantly, women such as Emily Jobes and Autumn Ost have been great middle-lineup scorers who has offered underrated stability.
You could probably flip a coin between the Utah State Aggies and the Colorado State Rams for 3rd place in this field as both teams offer similar lineup structures. This should make for a great battle behind the first two teams in the MWC.
Men’s Team Race
New Mexico Lobos
Wyoming Cowboys
Utah State Aggies
Boise State Broncos
Air Force Falcons
Analysis: The New Mexico men are by far the heavy favorite to win this year’s Mountain West team title.
Honestly, we wouldn’t be surprised to see four, or possibly even their entire top-five, finish in the top-10 of this race. That’s how dominant we expect this win to be for the Lobos.
Habtom Samuel will probably win the individual race, securing the singular point for the Lobos. Vincent Chirchir has also looked great this season and should be within the top-five to bolster New Mexico’s firepower at the front. Collins Kiprop, Evans Kiplagat and Rikus Van Niekerk all have the ability to be within the top-10 in this kind of field, meaning that we could see a very low point total for this title.
The Wyoming men are the next-best team as they are the most battle-tested of the other competitors. Jacob White has led the Cowboys all season long and should be a great low-stick for the team if he continues his hot streak. Mason Norman, Ryker Holtzen and Gus McInytre were all crucial in this team’s 12th place Pre-Nationals finish. They provide similar potency for the Cowboys to come out ahead of the Aggies of Utah State.
Of course, it's also very possible for Utah State to upend Wyoming. They did, after all, take down the Cowboys recently at Pre-Nationals. And on paper, their lineup is relatively similar (talent-wise) to Wyoming.
Boise State is a sneaky-good team and you could argue that they haven't had their best race yet. We like Joe Hudson a good bit and there are some very respectable support scorers spread throughout this lineup.
Air Force, meanwhile, has proven that they can be competitive this year after a decent enough outing at the Nuttycombe Invite. The issue, however, is that they struggled quite a bit at Pre-Nationals and didn't have low-stick Max Sannes for that race.
