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PREDICTIONS: 2024 Sun Belt XC Conference Championships
- Donald Speas
- Oct 31, 2024
- 5 min read
Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
While the Sun Belt isn't typically a conference that we associate with top-tier distance runners, it has produced a handful of individual talents who have gone on to have success on the national stage (think Kirami Yego, Pauline Meyer, Annie Bothma and the Wildschutt twins).
This year, the Sun Belt has a handful of individuals who have been flying under the national radar, but are certainly capable of surprising a lot of folks at their respective regionals meets and the national meet later this fall.
DISCLAIMER: Donny Speas, the author of this article, currently competes for Marshall University. He will be racing in the men's field at this meet. He was responsible for a significant portion of the preview and predictions of this article.
Women's Individual Race (5k)
Molly Jones (Coastal Carolina)
Kylee Mastin (Marshall)
Katherine Lawson (James Madison)
Nyomi Garcia (Texas State)
Maja Dzialoszewska (Arkansas State)
Jasmine Donohue (Appalachian State)
Olivia Walter (Appalachian State)
Abigail Parra (Texas State)
Isabelle Russell (Louisiana)
Maria Kaylor (Southern Miss)
Ella Segura (Louisiana)
Charleen Elizondo (South Alabama)
Emma Russum (Appalachian State)
Lauren Johnston (Appalachian State)
Hannah Wyler (Marshall)
Taylor Houston (Appalachian State)
Brooke Spalitta (Louisiana)
Kristen Torres (Texas State)
Delaney Mulick (Arkansas State)
Destiny Berryman (Marshall)
Analysis: One reason why I'm so excited that I get to write about the Sun Belt is that most of these races are seemingly wide-open without a massive favorite. No race exemplifies that better than the women's individual battle which, by my count, has three legitimate contenders for the win.
First up is defending champion, Coastal Carolina senior, Molly Jones.
Jones easily has the best upside of any athlete in this field. Over the course of the last year, she has gone on to pick up an indoor conference title over 3000 meters and run a sneaky-fast 33:25 PR for 10,000 meters.
Unfortunately, she has only raced once this year (a 7th place finish at Panorama Farms) after suffering an injury that hampered the majority of her build-up. If Jones is racing at 100%, then she quickly becomes a big favorite.
My pick for runner-up honors is Marshall senior, Kylee Mastin. The Thundering Herd veteran is typically known as a miler/1500-meter runner, winning the last two conference titles in that area. However, Mastin has also greatly improved her range this fall, picking up a solid 15th-place finish at the Louisville XC Classic and then a 3rd-place finish at the Firetower Project (where she beat the entirety of Appalachian State's roster).
And what about James Madison junior, Katherine Lawson? The Virginia-based distance runner has quietly strung together an impressive resume during her fall campaign. She secured a great victory in the "Brown" section at Paul Short and later validated that effort with a 17th place finish in the "B" section at Pre-Nationals.
All three of these women are capable of winning on any given day. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me at all if those women occupied the top-three spots on Friday morning.
Men's Individual Race (8k)
Jacob Pyeatt (Arkansas State)
Ethan Lipham (Appalachian State)
Ethan Turner (Appalachian State)
Natnael Enright (Arkansas State)
Dawson Mayberry (Arkansas State)
Peyton Chiasson (Louisiana)
Chase Burrell (Appalachian State)
Calbert Guest (Appalachian State)
Henok Hagos (Texas State)
Evan Stevens (Arkansas State)
Joseph Patterson (Louisiana)
Koket Jimata (Texas State)
Avinash Patel (Arkansas State)
Aaron Kidd (Appalachian State)
Justin Lipscomb (Marshall)
Rowan Gwin (Appalachian State)
Benjamin Brenneman (Arkansas State)
Louden Boudreaux (Louisiana)
Garrett Ferguson (Marshall)
Adam Groves (Coastal Carolina)
Analysis: I would argue that Jacob Pyeatt is one of the more underrated athletes in the NCAA this fall.
The Arkansas State senior looks to be far and away the best individual who the Sun Belt has to offer. He has collected top finishes at competitive invitationals this past fall such as the Louisville XC Classic (2nd) and the Arturo Barrios Invitational (9th).
Barring catastrophe, Pyeatt should be your 2024 Sun Belt individual champion.
After Pyeatt, there is a huge cluster of athletes who could reasonably contend for runner-up honors. Out of that group, Appalachian State junior Ethan Lipham has the best upside, especially after a 15th-place finish at this year's Panorama Farms Invite.
Unfortunately, Lipham hasn't been the most consistent this fall. However, if the version of Lipham that we saw at Panorama Farms shows up, then this Mountaineer should be a fairly comfortable pick for silver.
Both Ethan Turner (Appalachian State) and Natnael Enright (Arkansas State) have produced solid finishes at some of this fall's fastest invitationals. Enright earned a 40th place finish at the Arturo Barrios Invite while Turner placed 69th at the Joe Piane Invite.
Turner has been more consistent this year, so I'll give him the nod for 3rd place in our predictions.
Women's Team Race
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Marshall Thundering Herd
Texas State Bobcats
Louisiana Rajin' Cajuns
Analysis: This year's Sun Belt team title race will more than likely come down to the Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Both programs have soundly defeated other conference opponents this season and both have proven that they can at least hold their own in nationally competitive fields.
While we don't have a head-to-head matchup of these teams to review, we do have the next best thing -- a common opponent.
At the Firetower Project back in mid-September, the Mountaineers beat the Marshall Thundering Herd by about 50 points in a mid-sized field. Then, three weeks later at the Louisville Classic, the Red Wolves beat the Thundering Herd by roughly 30 points.
Admittedly, trying to draw that kind of comparison from two very different fields isn't necessarily fool-proof. Even so, it does partially explain why I have the Mountaineers taking home the win.
Men's Team Race
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Texas State Bobcats
Louisiana Rajin' Cajuns
Marshall Thundering Herd
Analysis: Once again, it's the Appalachian State Mountaineers versus the Arkansas State Red Wolves, this time for the men's team title. In fact, all five teams that are represented in our men's predictions are also represented in our women's predictions.
Coincidence? Probably not.
And just like our women’s predictions, I’m giving Appalachian State the edge over Arkansas State. However, I can’t emphasize enough how close this race should/could be. When making these predictions, I went back and forth on who the winning team would be on at least five different occasions.
The Red Wolves have performed admirably throughout their 2024 fall campaign, taking 9th at the Arturo Barrios invitational and 10th at the Louisville XC Classic. The Red Wolves also have the individual title favorite, Jacob Pyeatt, who should give them a massive advantage up front.
For all the aforementioned reasons, I had Arkansas State winning this meet...up until maybe 24 hours ago.
That was when I saw that Appalachian State senior, Calbert Guest, listed in the entries. Guest hasn’t raced since the Firetower Project in mid-September where he was the Mountaineers' lead scorer. His potential return on Friday is a massive development.
If Guest is anywhere close to his peak level of fitness, then he will be a contender for a top-10 individual finish in this field. That, in theory, should be enough to give Appalachian State just enough to push them into the top spot on Friday morning.
