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PREDICTIONS: 2024 American Athletic Conference (AAC) XC Championships
- Donald Speas
- Oct 31, 2024
- 5 min read
Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
Although the last couple of years of conference realignment have dramatically affected the NCAA landscape, the American Athletic Conference (AAC) has continued to produce consistently respectable results, especially when it comes to top-end individuals.
This year is no different with multiple AAC individuals appearing in and out of our top-50 individual rankings while a few distance programs have made appearances in the "Just Missed" and "Honorable Mentions" sections of our team rankings.
Without further ado, let's jump right into our predictions!
Women's Individual Race (6k)
Caroline Jeptanui (Tulane)
Blezzin Kimutai (Tulane)
Daphne Mayer (Rice)
Ximena Lopez (North Texas)
Oliwia Kopec (Rice)
Paula Vaquera (Tulane)
Alex Gobran (Rice)
Chloe Hershenow (Tulsa)
Robyn Kowalski (Tulsa)
Betty Bajika (North Texas)
Danna Diaz (Tulane)
Taigen Hunter-Galvan (Rice)
Amelie Attenborough (Rice)
Alicen Ashley (Tulsa)
London Culbreath (North Texas)
Heidi Nielson (Rice)
Alex Sharp (Tulane)
Cali Coffin (Charlotte)
Sarah Bertry (Wichita State)
Ella White (Charlotte)
Analysis: I don't want to oversimplify, but this is Caroline Jeptanui's race to lose. The Tulane freshman has far and away the best resume of any athlete in this field.
Jeptanui has only raced twice in a Green Wave singlet and both performances have been nothing short of phenomenal. One effort ended with a runner-up finish at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational and the other was a monster 3rd place finish at Pre-Nationals!
Tulane's other star freshman, Blezzin Kimuati has already made a statement in her short time in the NCAA. She has picked up an 8th place at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational, followed by a slightly less impressive, but still very strong, 44th place finish at Pre-Nationals.
Truthfully, it wouldn't be a surprise if Tulane goes 1-2 on Friday afternoon. In fact, I would be more of a surprise if these Green Wave athletes didn't occupy the top-two spots when the dust settles.
As for the top non-Tulane athlete, my money is on either Rice's Daphne Mayer or North Texas's Ximena Lopez. Luckily, we got to see a head-to-head matchup between those two women at the Arturo Barrios Invitational. There, Lopez took down Mayer by seven seconds.
However, Mayer has had a more consistent fall season overall and to me, that matters a lot. As such, I'm ultimately giving her the nod for bronze in my predictions.
Men's Individual Race (8k)
Bernard Cheruiyot (Tulane)
Jack Jennings (Tulane)
Gus Gannon (Rice)
Chris McLeod (Tulsa)
Jaden Forester (Tulsa)
Charlie Krasnoff (Tulsa)
Victor Neiva (North Texas)
Illia Kunin (Tulane)
Ben Brown (Tulsa)
Elliot Metcalf (Rice)
Yared Kidane (Wichita State)
Wondu Summa (Tulane)
James Knockton (Tulsa)
Connor Bartek (North Texas)
Alex Sawyer (East Carolina)
Iain Salter (North Texas)
Ben Tijerina (Rice)
Juan Giron (Tulane)
Matthew Norton (North Texas)
David Kalwahali (North Texas)
Analysis: The coaching staff at Tulane (and the fine folks over at Scholarbook) have done a wonderful job recruiting over the course of the past year. In both individual races, there is a Tulane freshman as a favorite (admittedly, more so on the women's side than the men's side).
On the men's side, it's Bernard Cheruiyot who has already made his presence known in the NCAA via an excellent 5th-place finish at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational (in addition to a meet record at the Texas A&M Invitational).
One runner who has a very realistic shot of upsetting Cheruiyot is his teammate, senior Jack Jennings. The Villanova transfer had the best race of his fall campaign at Pre-Nationals, taking home a quietly great 41st place finish, eight spots in front of his teammate.
While I'm fairly certain that a Tulane athlete will break the tape on Saturday morning, one athlete who could play spoiler is Gus Gannon. The Rice standout has put up some consistently underrated performances this season, including a pair of top-30 finishes at both the Arturo Barrios Invitational and the Gans Creek Classic. He has built up some sneaky-good momentum in 2024.
Shay McEvoy is also listed in the entries. However, the 2022 cross country All-American has yet to race this season and truthfully, it would surprise us if he toed the line on Friday. That said, if does race and he's in top form, then it's very possible that he could secure gold on Friday.
Women's Team Race
Tulane Green Wave
Rice Owls
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
North Texas Mean Green
Charlotte 49ers
Analysis: It's going to be a very tall task for any team to combat Tulane's lethal 1-2 punch...but it's certainly not impossible. I'd argue that the team title race should come down to the aforementioned Tulane Green Wave and the Rice women.
While Tulane definitely has the best firepower in this field and may very well score less than eight points through three runners, they have virtually no room for error. Admittedly, they have a significant drop-off after their top scoring trio.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Rice Owls who have plenty of depth. In fact, it shouldn't come as a shock to anyone if they put seven athletes inside the top-20 of this field. However, they don't seem to have a marquee low-stick to counter at least some of the firepower that Tulane boasts.
However, in a smaller field such as this one, Rice's lack of firepower may not matter nearly as much. I won't be surprised if both Oliwia Kopec and Daphne Mayer find themselves finishing inside the top-five when everything is said and done.
Men's Team Race
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Tulane Green Wave
North Texas Mean Green
Rice Owls
Charlotte 49ers
Analysis: Another race, and another close showdown between the impressive low-sticks of Tulane and the depth a conference rival, Tulsa.
Depending on who you ask, some may argue that Tulane is the slight favorite to take home the win on Friday. Don't get me wrong, I think the trio of Chris McLeod, Jaden Forester and Charlie Krasnoff are all wonderful athletes. However, I just don't think that they can take down either of Tulane's top-two scorers when they're operating at 100%.
Even so, that may not matter a whole lot given the significant gaps spread throughout Tulane's lineup. Tulsa, meanwhile, has a far more complete team and as long as their top scorers aren't too far back in the standings, the math should favor the Golden Hurricanes.
It's also worth bringing up that the Tulsa men have a head-to-head win over the Green Wave from Pre-Nationals. There, those two teams finished in 19th place and 20th place, respectively.
Needless to say, this team battle looks incredibly close and, in my opinion, is the most compelling matchup of any of the four races that I've covered in this article.
