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PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG East XC Championships
- Rachel Hickey
- Oct 30, 2024
- 6 min read
Written by Rachel Hickey, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: We are acting under the assumption that the athletes shown in the above live results link are also the entries for Friday's BIG East XC Championships.
The BIG East has quietly been one of the NCAA's more competitive distance running conferences, at least in recent memory. While it may not match up to the powers of the SEC, ACC, BIG 10 or BIG 12, it does seem to be in the tier of conferences that are next-best.
This year, the BIG East will have plenty fireworks, especially on the women's side. Individually, the women's race should be one of the best in conference history while the men's race features three teams that, to varying extents, are capable of securing the conference gold.
Here's how we are expecting the BIG East XC Championships to unfold...
Women’s Individual Race (6k)
Chloe Thomas (UConn)
Kimberley May (Providence)
Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown)
Melissa Riggins (Georgetown)
Sadie Sigfstead (Villanova)
Lucy Jenks (Georgetown)
Alex Millard (Providence)
Shannon Flockhart (Providence)
Jenna Zydanowicz (UConn)
Nicole Vanasse (Villanova)
Wiktoria Klebowska (Butler)
Charlotte Tomkinson (Georgetown)
Almi Nerurkar (Georgetown)
Niamh O’Mahony (Providence)
Emma McGil (Villanova)
Barrett Justema (Georgetown)
Caroline Towle (UConn)
Laura Mooney (Providence)
Margaret Carroll (Villanova)
Fiona Max (Georgetown)
Analysis: Providence’s Kimberley May and Georgetown’s Chloe Scrimgeour, two legitimate distance stars, have already battled once this season. In that lone matchup, May emerged victorious at the Princeton Fall Classic.
May has looked as good as she ever has on the grass, but we know that the best version of Scrimgeour is still capable of overtaking the Providence ace.
However, what if I told you there is a third woman who is more than capable of securing the win on Friday? That, of course, would be UConn senior Chloe Thomas. The rising distance star has slowly risen to be a top-tier name in the NCAA with an impressive top-five performance at Pre-Nationals (as well as a win at Paul Short).
Thomas, May and Scrimgeour all have the right combination of speed and aerobic strength to run away with this title. However, Thomas has some of the best momentum in the country right now. Defeating All-American standouts such as May and Scrimgeour would further solidify her place among the best in the NCAA this fall and potentially make her a top-five runner in the country.
The race behind those three ladies will be a brutal battle of familiar faces as many BIG East teams competed against each other at the Princeton Fall Classic a couple of weeks back.
We can’t totally count out Nuttycombe champion Sadie Sigfstead (Villanova) from the individual title conversation. The best version of her is frighteningly good, but she'll also need to bounce back from an underwhelming performance at the Princeton Fall Classic where she settled for 9th place.
The Georgetown duo of Melissa Riggins and Lucy Jenks have also shown enough promise this season to vie for a top-five finish or maybe even a top-three finish on a good day. The same could be said for Providence's Alex Millard and maybe even teammate Shannon Flockhart.
However, given the mass amount of elite talent in this field, it feels highly unlikely that any of those latter four women will realistically contend for gold on Friday.
Men’s Individual Race (8k)
Liam Murphy (Villanova)
Will Zegarski (Butler)
Marco Langon (Villanova)
Abel Teffra (Georgetown)
Bailey Habler (Villanova)
Lucas Guerra (Georgetown)
James Dunne (Georgetown)
Jesse Hamlin (Butler)
Luke Ondracek (Georgetown)
Austin Gabay (Butler)
Florian Le Pallec (Butler)
CJ Sullivan (Villanova)
Sean Donoghue (Villanova)
Michael Morgan (Providence)
David Slapak (Butler)
Charlie North (Georgetown)
Trevor Nolan (Xavier)
Cormac Dixon (Providence)
Travis Martin (UConn)
Damien Rodriguez (DePaul)
Analysis: Truthfully, this race should be a runaway victory for Liam Murphy (TSR #9) of Villanova. He has demonstrated a much higher ceiling than virtually everyone else in this field.
Murphy most recently placed 2nd at the Princeton Fall Classic behind another national-caliber star in Ethan Strand. With a 2023 BIG East title already under his belt and a bronze medal performance at the Nuttycombe Invite from earlier this fall, it’s hard to imagine anyone outpacing the potential back-to-back champion this weekend.
Behind Murphy, Will Zegarski (TSR #40) of Butler and Murphy’s teammate, Margo Langon (TSR #50), will battle for the runner-up spot as the only other ranked athletes in this field. Either of these men could get the best of each other on any given day. However, with Murphy likely being the one to dictate how this race plays out, it will be Langon who has the advantage of potentially knowing what Murphy will do at certain points.
Women’s Team Race
Georgetown Hoyas
Providence Friars
Connecticut Huskies
Villanova Wildcats
Butler Bulldogs
Analysis: The battle for BIG East glory will be between the Georgetown Hoyas and the Providence Friars on the women's side -- and what a battle it is set to be!
Both teams currently rank within the top-10 section of our team rankings at TSR #6 and TSR #10, respectively. In their last head-to-head matchup, it was the Hoyas who emerged on top by just six points over the Friars. In a similarly-sized field this weekend, we would expect a very similar result.
Georgetown’s firepower looks to be a touch stronger and than Providence’s right now as the low-stick trio of Chloe Scrimgeour, Melissa Riggins and Lucy Jenks provides incredible scoring potency.
The Friars do have Kimberley May who looks to be in phenomenal form right now. However, for as good as Alex Millard and Shannon Flockhart have been this fall, they do not seem to match the level that the Hoyas’ trio is at currently.
But in the grand scheme of things, it will likely be the backend portion of both of these lineups that will be the difference maker. The Hoyas are arguably deeper in that area of their top-seven and they'll seemingly be returning Charlotte Tomkinson for this race as well! She was 32nd at the Nuttycombe Invite earlier this year.
The catch, however, is that the Friars are listing Jane Buckley in their entries for Friday. She was the team's top low-stick during the fall of 2022, but has barely raced since the spring of 2023. Her return could be huge, although a recent 3k race on the grass produced an unexciting 4th place finish, leaving us to temper our expectations for this Friday.
That all being said, expect this to be a very tight race which could come down to a matter of just a couple of points. Truthfully, this will be one of the most exciting ranked team matchups of the conference weekend, and one that we are anxious to watch it unfold!
Men’s Team Race
Villanova Wildcats
Georgetown Hoyas
Butler Bulldogs
Providence Friars
Creighton Bluejays
Analysis: The Villanova men looked great in their win over Georgetown at the Princeton Fall Classic. But while they are favored to secure the victory yet again, the Hoyas won't make their lives any easier.
Villanova will rely on the low-stick firepower provided by individual favorite Liam Murphy and fellow low-stick Margo Langon, the latter of whom who has looked great so far this season. Australian newcomer Bailey Habler adds sneaky-good scoring value. He has been able to stabilize this lineup despite his youth.
The depth behind that trio of Wildcats is admittedly not great, but they have been slowly improving. Even so, the gap behind Habler is where the Hoyas could sneak a win. That's because Georgetown seemingly has a complete scoring group through four runners.
Abel Teffra looks to be a great potential low-stick for the team following his 7th place finish two weeks ago. Lucas Guerra, Luke Ondracek and James Dunne can pack up well behind Teffra to break up the Wildcats' roster. If the Hoyas can spread them out just enough, then Georgetown could turn more heads in their direction.
As for the Butler men, it is certainly possible that they could win the BIG East title on Friday. Of course, they'll be heavy underdogs to do so.
Florian Le Pallec has admittedly struggled this fall and we have yet to see fellow low-stick Jesse Hamlin (although he is listed in the entries). We also haven't seen Matthew Forrester this season, either.
We like William Zegarski a lot and Austin Gabay has been a nice addition to this team. Even so, the Bulldogs would need everything to go perfectly for them on Friday if they want to defend their team title from 2023.
