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PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG Sky Outdoor Championships

  • Writer: Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
    Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
  • May 8, 2024
  • 4 min read

When people think of the BIG Sky Conference, they usually think of Northern Arizona (and understandably so). However, as the Lumberjacks have risen in the all-time ranks, some of their conference opponents have found great success as well.


Montana State has evolved into a steeplechase powerhouse and the Bobcats have also become legitimate, national-caliber threats on the grass as well. Weber State has produced a handful of excellent individuals and the conference in general has been very strong in the steeplechase.


Below, we gave you our predictions and brief thoughts on what the BIG Sky Outdoor Championships may hold this weekend.

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back). Times that are listed below are NOT converted from altitude.


Men’s 800 Meters

  1. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)* - 1:49

  2. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)* - 1:49

  3. Zac Bright (Idaho) - 1:50

  4. Jesse Hayward (Northern Colorado) - 1:50

  5. Lorenz Herrmann (Idaho) - 1:51


Analysis: Colin Sahlman and Nico Young are favored in this race simply because they are the most fit men in this field (by a large margin). However, both Zac Bright and Jesse Hayward have been very consistent this season and have given us way more things to like about them than not. Also, if Lorenz Herrmann is firing on all cylinders, then he's capable of capturing bronze.


Women’s 800 Meters

  1. Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona)* - 2:06

  2. Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado)* - 2:08

  3. Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)* - 2:09

  4. Nikita Moore (Northern Arizona)* - 2:10

  5. Keira Moore (Northern Arizona)* - 2:10


Analysis: Maggi Congdon is the best middle distance runner in this field, specifically over 800 meters. Regina Mpigachai is no pushover, but outside of her, the raw fitness of the NAU women should allow them to glide through this field.


Men’s 1500 Meters

  1. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)* - 3:46

  2. Colin Sahlman (Northern Arizona)* - 3:46

  3. Harvey Cramb (Montana State)* - 3:48

  4. Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)* - 3:50

  5. Sam Ells (Montana State)* - 3:51


Analysis: I really like Harvey Cramb over 1500 meters. No, I don't see him beating Nico Young or Colin Sahlman, but he's had a quietly great season. Don't expect him to falter too much when NAU's top duo makes their move.


But truthfully, after the top-three, this order seems to be pretty up in the air. There are a somewhat large handful of names who could very realistically crack the top-five of the 1500-meter finals.


Women’s 1500 Meters

  1. Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)* - 4:21

  2. Maggi Congdon (Northern Arizona)* - 4:21

  3. Karrie Baloga (Northern Arizona)* - 4:23

  4. Regina Mpigachai (Northern Colorado)* - 4:23

  5. Kyla Christopher-Moody (Montana State)* - 4:24


Analysis: I really like Regina Mpigachai and Kyla Christopher-Moody going into this weekend. They are two of the few women who I think are capable of breaking up NAU's dominance. But on paper, Reiss, Congdon and Baloga are just flat-out better right now.


Men’s 5000 Meters

  1. Nico Young (Northern Arizona)* - 14:03

  2. Aaron Las Heras (Northern Arizona)* - 14:07

  3. Ben Perrin (Montana State)* - 14:09

  4. Brodey Hasty (Northern Arizona)* - 14:11

  5. Matthew Richtman (Montana State)* - 14:17


Analysis: I have no idea how fast this race is going to be. It's certainly not going to be an all-out affair, but at what point do the NAU men begin to ramp up the pace? How does the altitude play into this 5k final? And will Nico Young even contest this event after the 1500-meter finals and 800-meter finals? This group is entirely aerobic-centric, so I imagine that it will remain somewhat honest as their endurance-based strength is put to the test.


Women’s 5000 Meters

  1. Gracelyn Larkin (Northern Arizona)* - 16:18

  2. Ali Upshaw (Northern Arizona) - 16:20

  3. Annika Reiss (Northern Arizona)* - 16:20

  4. Bryn Morley (Northern Arizona)* - 16:22

  5. Kyla Christopher-Moody (Montana State) - 16:25


Analysis: There is a very, very, very real possibility that Northern Arizona sweeps the top-five spots in this race. In fact, their sweep could go potential six or seven women deep! Kyla Christopher-Moody is probably too good to miss the top-eight entirely, but the Lumberjacks seemingly brought out the full arsenal for this event.


Men’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Ben Perrin (Montana State)* - 29:53

  2. Matthew Richtman (Montana State)* - 29:54

  3. Cael Grotenhuis (Northern Arizona)* - 29:59

  4. Owen Smith (Montana State)* - 30:11

  5. Erik Le Roux (Northern Arizona)* - 30:17


Analysis: Ben Perrin and Matthew Richtman will probably go 1-2 in this race. They are both experienced veterans, have thrived over the longer distances, easily hold the fastest personal bests in this field and are always great at altitude. However, NAU's Cael Grotenhuis ran 13:38 (5k) earlier this spring and has a 28:45 (10k) PR from last year. If he's at the top of his game, then the Lumberjack junior is capable of pulling off a fairly decent upset.


Women’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Ruby Smee (Northern Arizona)* - 34:54

  2. Anna Fenske (Northern Arizona)* - 34:59

  3. Alex Moore (Montana State)* - 35:25

  4. Hannah Perrin (Montana State)* - 35:48

  5. Cassandra Vasquez (Idaho State)* - 36:00


Analysis: I would be VERY surprised if Ruby Smee doesn't win this race. She is the most accomplished runner in this field...and it's not even close. Anna Fenske also deserves a lot of respect in this race -- I could see the 10k being a big breakthrough opportunity for her.


Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Rob McManus (Montana State)* - 8:43

  2. Levi Taylor (Montana State)* - 8:44

  3. Bronson Winter (Weber State)* - 8:48

  4. Peter Visser (Weber State)* - 8:55

  5. Owen Smith (Montana State)* - 8:57


Analysis: I sincerely believe that this could be the best race of the entire conference weekend, at least on the men's side. Both Montana State and Weber State have small armies of top-tier steeplechasers, many of whom are on absolute fire right now. Someone in the field is going to make this race fast and given how well these guys have run at altitude, I think you're going to see massive conversions that headline the national leaderboard.


Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Karrie Baloga (Northern Arizona)* - 10:33

  2. Katja Pattis (Idaho)* - 10:38

  3. Sage Hagelin (Weber State)* - 10:40

  4. Hannah Perrin (Montana State)* - 10:44

  5. Grace Gilbreth (Montana State)* - 10:44


Analysis: Karrie Baloga is simply the better overall runner and Katja Pattis has shown us that her peak level of fitness can make her a contender in this field. Other than that, this isn't a race that is going to garner major headlines.

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