top of page
Search

PREDICTIONS: 2024 Mountain West Outdoor Championships

  • Writer: Maura Beattie
    Maura Beattie
  • May 8, 2024
  • 6 min read

Predictions & analysis via Maura Beattie, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin

The Mountain West is one of the more underrated conferences in the NCAA, boasting numerous teams that have been able to reach the national stage in cross country over the last few years. These programs have also produced some of the best individuals in the entire NCAA and in 2024, there are plenty of those athletes still around.


Below, TSR veteran Maura Beattie gave her top-five picks for each distance event (with times) followed by some brief analysis. Let's get into it, shall we?

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).


Men’s 800 Meters

  1. Ryan Birkmeier (Colorado State) - 1:47

  2. Dylan Burrows (New Mexico) - 1:47

  3. Matthew Larkin (New Mexico) - 1:48

  4. Landon Bott (Utah State) - 1:49

  5. Brandon Bate (Colorado State) - 1:50


Analysis: As the reigning 800-meter indoor Mountain West champion, it’s only fair that Colorado State’s Ryan Birkmeier remains as the favorite on the outdoor oval. However, this is going to be a tight race as New Mexico’s Dylan Burrows and Matthew Larkin could employ team tactics to counter what Birkmeier’s strategy is. 


Burrows has been one of the more underrated middle distance runners out west this season and Larkin is a strong veteran. Expect this to be a fairly quick race.


Women’s 800 Meters

  1. Salma Elbadra (Wyoming)* - 2:04

  2. Quinn McConnell (Colorado State)* - 2:05

  3. Ava Gilliana (Air Force) - 2:06

  4. Mattalyn Geddes (Utah State) - 2:08

  5. Alex Lomeli (San Diego State) - 2:08


Analysis: Freshman talent Salma Elbadra has been flying under the radar throughout this outdoor track season. The Wyoming athlete has found success by running times of 2:05 (800) and 4:16 (1500), further extending her great momentum from the winter months.


Of course, Elbadra will have her hands full with established veterans such as Quinn McConnell (Colorado State) and Ava Gilliana (Air Force) in the field. But after finding grand success at the Mountain West Indoor Championships with a gold medal and a silver medal, there's not much reason to doubt this rising rookie.


Men’s 1500 Meters

  1. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)* - 3:40

  2. Ollie Newman (Boise State)* - 3:43

  3. Sean Maison (Air Force)* - 3:43

  4. Cal Banta (Colorado State)* - 3:44

  5. Samuel Field (New Mexico)* - 3:45


Analysis: Even though he’s a long distance specialist, New Mexico’s Habtom Samuel can still throw down a killer 1500-meter performance if necessary. Samuel showed during the winter that he has plenty of race savvy and frankly, given how much raw talent he has, it shouldn’t be surprising to see him outdistance this field in the latter-half of this race.


With this race largely being a battle for 2nd place, expect to see a close contest between Ollie Newman (Boise State) and Sean Maison (Air Force), the latter being the reigning champion. The former has been building some sneaky-good momentum as of late while the latter is an accomplished veteran who should be able to handle most race scenarios.


Women’s 1500 Meters

  1. Jessica Kain (San Diego State)* - 4:13

  2. Klara Dess (New Mexico)* - 4:15

  3. Salma Elbadra (Wyoming)* - 4:15

  4. Sarah Eckel (New Mexico)* - 4:17

  5. Anna Petr (Colorado State)* - 4:19


Analysis: As much as I wanted to choose reigning Mountain West indoor mile champion Salma Elbadra for the win, I’ve opted for San Diego State veteran Jessica Kain instead. The senior is coming off of recent personal bests of 4:14 (1500) and 15:57 (5k), indicating that she has capitalized on her endurance this season and has never been more fit.


To win this race, Kain is going to need to rely on her strength rather than her speed as she attempts to outrun a field that has plenty of high-turnover women. The New Mexico women could also find themselves in the mix for the win if enough things break in their favor.


Men’s 5000 Meters

  1. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)* - 13:34

  2. Evans Kiplagat (New Mexico) - 13:35

  3. Vincent Chirchir (New Mexico)* - 13:35

  4. Eli Bennett (Air Force) - 13:46

  5. Tom Graham-Marr (Colorado State)* - 13:49


Analysis: The New Mexico Lobos have the potential to sweep the podium (which we're saying is top-three). Between Habtom Samuel, Evans Kiplagat and Vincent Chirchir, team tactics will take over and these three men will likely separate themselves from the chase pack and cross the line somewhat close together. On paper, they're just more fit than most of this field.


However, one key name to watch in this race is Eli Bennett (Air Force). The Falcon veteran owns a 5k PR of 13:39, but hasn’t been able to match that this season. Of course, with the right race this weekend, Bennett could break up that Lobo trio. 


Women’s 5000 Meters

  1. Sarah Carter (Colorado State)* - 15:44

  2. Nicola Jansen (New Mexico)* - 15:46

  3. Mercy Kirarei (New Mexico) - 15:46

  4. Emily Jobes (Boise State)* - 15:53

  5. Halle Hamilton (Air Force) - 15:55


Analysis: It’s a three-woman race between Sarah Carter (Colorado State), Nicola Jansen (New Mexico) and Mercy Kirarei (New Mexico). We already know what Carter and Jansen can do on the track, so let’s focus on Kirarei.


The New Mexico talent arrived in Albuquerque in early January and is already proving to be a legitimately competitive name. Her 15:49 (5k) PR sets her up nicely to have a strong end to her 2024 spring campaign and her full fitness will be tested (and maybe further displayed) against two women who have been relentless at the conference level.


Men’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Vincent Chirchir (New Mexico)* - 28:36

  2. Luke Combs (Air Force)* - 28:39

  3. Mason Brown (Colorado State)* - 28:45

  4. Brian Kiprotich (Boise State)* - 28:47

  5. Mason Norman (Wyoming)* - 28:52


Analysis: Without Habtom Samuel (New Mexico) in this race, teammate Vincent Chirchir is probably the favorite in this 10-person field. The freshman’s PRs of 13:34 (5k) and 28:19 (10k) are stronger than the next closest athlete, Air Force’s Luke Combs, although Chirchir's relative inexperience is something to consider.


Combs is a veteran when it comes to competing at the Mountain West Championships, but can that lead him to victory? He has had multiple moments of excellence throughout his career and he's capable of winning this race, but there are a lot of sneaky-good runners who will challenge both him and Chirchir.


Women’s 10,000 Meters

  1. Nicola Jansen (New Mexico)* - 33:19

  2. Sarah Carter (Colorado State)* - 33:21

  3. India Jones (Air Force)* - 33:32

  4. Eowyn Dalbec (Wyoming)* - 33:37

  5. Emma Thornley (Utah State)* - 33:38


Analysis: Nicola Jansen (New Mexico) and Sarah Carter (Colorado State) are expected to separate themselves from this 10k field. These two women are long distance aces and, on a good day, they are capable of earning All-American honors later this spring.


Don’t expect a head-turning time from either Jansen and Carter as they will likely be doing just enough to win. They do, after all, have to double back for the 5000 meters later in the weekend.


Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Max Wehrli (Utah State)* - 8:41

  2. Ryker Holtzen (Wyoming)* - 8:42

  3. Jason Renze (Air Force)* - 8:46

  4. Logan Garnica (Utah State)* - 8:49

  5. Mark Crandall (Utah State)* - 8:52


Analysis: It’s Utah State vs the field in the men’s steeplechase. Max Wehril has been very solid over the barriers this spring and is gunning for the conference title after finishing 3rd at this meet last season.


Teammates Logan Garnica and Mark Crandall will be there to add more points on the board for the Aggies, but they will still need to face-off against Wyoming’s Ryker Holtzen and Air Force’s Jason Renze. The former name is arguably Wehril’s biggest threat for the title while Renze is viewed as a dark horse in my eyes. 


Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

  1. Yasmin Austridge (Colorado State) - 10:04

  2. Shelby Jensen (Utah State) - 10:09

  3. Sophia McDonnell (New Mexico)* - 10:10

  4. Hanna Ackermann (Boise State)* - 10:19

  5. Rachel Crytser (Air Force)* - 10:21


Analysis: Last year, Yasmin Austridge was on fire in the steeplechase, recording a PR of 9:52. However, we haven’t seen the Colorado State transfer at full strength in her main event this spring, leaving us a little uncertain about what she'll show us this weekend.


Of course, that could all change against a field where she'll be pushed, but also favored for the win. Austridge will be challenged by Shelby Jensen (Utah State) and Sophia McDonnell (New Mexico). The former has been plenty consistent throughout last winter and this spring while the latter has built nice momentum as of late.

bottom of page