PREDICTIONS: 2024 AAC Outdoor Championships

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
May 7, 2024
7 min read

Ladies and gentlemen, it's conference championship week! While some conference meets already took place last weekend, nearly all of the nation's biggest and best leagues will be competing this week/weekend.

Unfortunately, some conference meets don't release their entries/heat sheets until the last second, leaving us at The Stride Report unable to make predictions. Thankfully, the American Athletic Conference is not one of those institutions. In fact, they may be the conference who has released their entries the earliest!

Here is one of what will likely be many conference meet predictions throughout this week...

Click Below File for Entries

*Denotes that a collegian is also entered in another individual event. In these predictions, TSR is assuming that each runner is contesting an event fresh (i.e. not doubling back).

Men's 800 Meters

Zander Dunbar (Tulane) - 1:50
Andrew Mallo (Charlotte) - 1:51
Sukeil Foucha (Tulane)* - 1:51
Maddon Muhammad (Charlotte)* - 1:52
Karim Belmahdi (South Florida)* - 1:52

Analysis: The men's 800 meters at the AAC Championships could go a variety of ways, but I think Zander Dunbar is best option for these predictions. Yes, he is the only guy in the field who has a seed time that goes under 1:50 for 800 meters, but his consistency has been great this season and he isn't doubling back from a longer distance event.

Andrew Mallo has also been super reliable this spring and I think he gets rewarded for that. I also opted to put Sukeil Foucha, Maddon Muhammad and Karim Belmahdi behind those two men given that they'll be doubling back from the 1500-meter finals which are just one hour before the 800-meter finals on Sunday.

Women’s 800 Meters

Taigen Hunter-Galvan (Rice)* - 2:06
Jessica Lambert (Florida Atlantic) - 2:06
Farrah Miller (Wichita State) - 2:07
Rosa Ten Berg (Florida Atlantic) - 2:09
Sarah Hosey (Tulsa) - 2:11

Analysis: Even if she's doubling back from the 1500-meter finals, I still think Taigen Hunter-Galvan is the somewhat clear favorite in this race. She's run the fastest marks in the conference between 800 meters (2:05) and the 1500 meters (4:23) this season. The Rice veteran is also the defending conference champion in this event and has a 2:04 PR from that same race.

Yes, Farah Miller does have a blistering 2:04 (800) mark from her narrow runner-up effort at the AAC Indoor Championships. However, she hasn't run under 2:07 at any other point in her career which makes me a little more cautious with her in our predictions. Jessica Lambert, meanwhile, has been super reliable and has metronomically run under 2:10 throughout the season. I could see her giving Hunt-Galvan a serious challenge come Sunday.

Men’s 1500 Meters

Maddon Muhammad (Charlotte)* - 3:44
Alec Esposito (Charlotte)* - 3:44
Shay McEvoy (Tulsa)* - 3:44
Illia Kunin (Tulane)* - 3:45
Karim Belmahdi (South Florida)* - 3:47

Analysis: If I could pick all of the Charlotte men, I would. But among the 49ers, veterans Maddon Muhammad and Alec Esposito stand out the most. That duo has been super consistent this season and their range is pretty decent, too. Pair that with great experience and you can see why I'm predicting them to go 1-2.

However, you could argue that Shay McEvoy is the most naturally talented of this group. He is undeniably at his best in the longer distances, but two big 5k and 10k PRs should allow this cross country All-American to stay competitive. Also worth noting, Illia Kunin is building great momentum and I like the speed that Karim Belmahdi boasts.

Women’s 1500 Meters

Taigen Hunter-Galvan (Rice)* - 4:19
Lauren Johnston (Charlotte)* - 4:20
Danna Diaz (Tulane)* - 4:24
Aislynn Reagle (Charlotte)* - 4:27
Macey Hilton (Southern Methodist)* - 4:27

Analysis: With a 4:23 (1500) seed time, Rice's Taigen Hunter-Galvan is certainly favored to win this title. However, Lauren Johnston has had a handful of really great moments over the last year and isn't far off from her Rice counterpart with a 4:24 PR of her own. Don't be surprised if both of these women run new personal bests this weekend.

Meanwhile, both Danna Diaz and Aislynn Reagle have showcased great endurance-centric stamina while posting recent personal bests over the metric mile distance. Those are great signs for what could end up being a fairly quick race.

I do like Macey Hilton, but she has a heavy workload coming up for her this weekend and she has yet to truly replicate the impressiveness of her 4:24 PR from March.

Men’s 5000 Meters

Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte)* - 13:46
Chris McLeod (Tulsa) - 13:56
Shay McEvoy (Tulsa)* - 13:57
Malte Propp (Tulsa) - 13:57
Christian Baker (Tulsa)* - 14:01

Analysis: Yes, Nickolas Scudder has to race the 10k on Friday, but after that, he doesn't have to race again until Sunday which isn't something that many other contenders in this field can say. And with a resume that is flat-out faster than his counterparts, he'll be heavily favored to take the win as long as Shay McEvoy doubles like he's scheduled to.

The Tulsa men should dominate this event. Charlotte has a ton of great guys as well, but nearly all of their top names are doubling back from the 1500 meters or the steeplechase from the night before. And with the Golden Hurricanes having both Chris McLeod and Malte Propp completely fresh for this race, I think it's going to be very hard to get around this group at the end of a long weekend.

Tulane's Jack Jennings is also a really interesting name. He owns a 28:28 (10k) PR from earlier this season and has run 13:52 (5k) over this distance as well. However, his fastest 5k time this spring has been 14:03 and admittedly, his consistency has room for improvement. He'll also be racing the 10k which is something to consider when he doubles back for this event.

Women’s 5000 Meters

Lucy Ndungu (Wichita State)* - 16:10
Lauren Johnston (Charlotte)* - 16:17
Kaitlyn Gearin (SMU)* - 16:24
Chloe Hershenow (Tulsa)* - 16:25
Paula Vaquera (Tulane)* - 16:32

Analysis: This is such a tricky race to figure out. Lauren Johnston has the best seed time of anyone in this field, boasting a 16:02 (5k) PR. The next-best seed time belongs to Paula Vaquera who has run 16:20.

However, Johnston will be doubling back from a 1500-meter battle that we're assuming will be quick. Plus, Tulsa's Chloe Hershenow has a 16:05 (5k) PR and was the conference champion in this event during the winter. The only catch is that Hershenow hasn't looked quite as sharp this spring as she did a few months back.

But lost in the craziness of the 5k entrants is Lucy Ndungu, a Wichita State runner from the JUCO ranks who has run 33:41 for 10,000 meters. On paper, she is much better than her 5k PR of 16:20 would suggest and I think we'll see that on Sunday.

Men’s 10,000 Meters

Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte)* - 28:53
Jack Jennings (Tulane)* - 29:17
Charlie Krasnoff (Tulsa)* - 29:29
Ryan Adkins (Tulane)* - 29:35
Zander Cobb (Wichita State)* - 29:36

Analysis: On paper, Tulane's Jack Jennings is probably viewed as the favorite. He ran 28:28 in this event back in March and showed on the grass that he gets better when the distance gets longer. The only issue, however, is that Jennings' 28:28 (10k) PR came back in late March and his latest 5k effort, while certainly not bad, could have been a bit better.

Nickolas Scudder, meanwhile, has been very consistent in the longer distances this season and his overall 10k PR is exactly 28:28 as well. For that reason, I'm picking the Charlotte veteran given that this is his best event.

After those two, there is a fairly noticeable drop-off to the next tier of runners. Guys like Zander Cobb (Wichita State) and Ryan Adkins (Tulane) are sub-30:00 (10k) talents, but the other top 10k runners in the conference are mostly racing the 5k. Tulsa's Charlie Krasnoff doesn't have a 10k mark on his resume, but a 14:04 (5k) PR and a season full of new personal bests suggests that he'll be competitive in this field.

Women’s 10,000 Meters

Lucy Ndungu (Wichita State)* - 34:04
Chloe Hershenow (Tulsa)* - 34:07
Lauren Johnston (Charlotte)* - 34:11
Tamara Reeves (Tulsa)* - 34:29
Alyssa Zack (East Carolina)* - 34:36

Analysis: Lucy Ndungu has the fastest seed time in this 10k field at 33:41. In fact, she's the only one who has run under 34 minutes this season. Lauren Johnston doesn't have a 10k seed time, but she does have the fastest 5k mark of any woman this spring at 16:02 and has proven to be great over the longer distances. Chloe Hershenow's 34:16 mark is solid, but it's her experience and established placed at the top of the AAC that makes her a threat.

Any of those three women could challenge for gold in my mind. But truthfully, predicting who you think wins this race largely reflects what you value the most in runners: Fast times, momentum or established talent.

Men’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

Christian Baker (Tulsa)* - 8:49
Hunter White (Charlotte)* - 8:53
Braden Lange (Charlotte)* - 8:58
Gus Gannon (Rice)* - 9:03
Gunner Hogston (Charlotte)* - 9:05

Analysis: Tulsa's Christian Baker and Rice's Gus Gannon are the only two men who have run under 8:50 in the steeplechase this spring. The former has run 8:46 while the latter has run 8:47.

However, I simply trust the experience of Baker more rather than the underclassman upside of Gannon. Baker's resume is very well-rounded and his personal best is actually eight seconds faster than his seed time.

That said, the Charlotte men could give Baker and Gannon a lot of problems. Braden Lange, Hunter White and Gunner Hogston have all run in the low 8:50s in this event and they are all experienced veterans. White has proven that he can run faster than his 8:51 seed time while both Lange and Hogston have had seasons littered with new personal bests.

Women’s 3000-Meter Steeplechase

Katharina Pesendorfer (Tulsa)* - 10:31
Alicen Ashley (Tulsa)* - 10:33
Anabell Reumann (Florida Atlantic)* - 10:38
Elsa Chan (Temple)* - 10:43
Nikoleta Rafailaki (Southern Methodist)* - 10:49

Analysis: This admittedly isn't the most exciting field as the conference's top steeplechaser, Lauren Johnston, is entered in a variety of events that aren't the steeplechase. In fact, her fellow sub-10:30 teammate, Karoline Daland, isn't entered, either! And among those who are in this race, none of them have seed times under 10:20.

The Tulsa duo of Katharina Pesendorfer and Alicen Ashley should handle this field with relative ease and on a really good day, Florida Atlantic's Anabell Reumann is probably the only other woman who can challenge them.