Five Things to Watch: Indiana Coaching Tree Invite

TSR Collaboration
Sep 15, 2022
11 min read

Ladies and gentlemen, we've got our first meet preview of the 2022 cross country season!

Indiana University will be hosting the "Coaching Tree Invite" on Friday morning. The meet will be headlined by numerous programs, almost all of which have some underlying connection to the Hooisers' head coach, Ron Helmer, who will be retiring at the end of this academic year.

With a handful of highly-ranked programs set to toe the line in Bloomington, Indiana tomorrow morning, some with lineups that feature more projected varsity runners than others, The Stride Report and fans around the country will get our first legitimate glimpse of these teams in a competitive setting.

Below, our writers offered, "Five Things to Watch" for tomorrow's races...

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Can Veteran Sarah Schmitt Be Indiana's Next True Low-Stick? And Can The Hoosiers Improve Behind Her?

Written by Scott Loughlin

In their second cross country season of the post-Bailey Hertenstein era, the Indiana women will seek to build a solid scoring foundation from a young core of runners. And the Coaching Tree Invitational in Bloomington, Indiana will likely set the table to forecast what trajectory the Hoosiers could be on this season.

Sarah Schmitt was the class of the Hoosiers' roster last fall and has been even better in prior seasons, finishing as high as 58th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships. All signs point to Schmitt improving yet again this season after securing personal bests of 4:19 (1500), 9:14 (3k) on the track while breaking the elusive 16-minute barrier in the 5k with a mark of 15:59.

The most commendable quality of Schmitt’s cross country career has been consistency, even on championship stages. She has finished in the top-15 of the BIG 10 XC Championships three times and the top-60 of the Nuttycombe Invitational twice.

But the question is, can that attribute of consistency manifest itself into top-tier firepower when tested against the NCAA’s most elite distance talents?

Last year's Indiana team admittedly struggled with Bailey Hertenstein sidelined. And now, their superstar All-American racing for the Colorado Buffaloes, the Hoosiers are left with a significant lack of scoring once again.

Luckily, Schmitt will have a golden opportunity to challenge herself on Friday against some of the nation’s best on her home course as she contends for a top individual finish against Georgetown’s Sami Corman and Maggie Donahue, North Carolina’s Sasha Neglia and Brynn Brown and Villanova’s Lydia Olivere.

If Schmitt defeats one (or more) of these heavy-hitters, then the Indiana women can go into the weekend knowing that their ace is a legitimate All-American-caliber front-runner who can hold her own alongside some of the best low-sticks in the country.

And while racing on their home course may not inherently give the Hoosiers an advantage, it’s certainly better than going into a new course completely blind this early in the season – especially for a team as young as this one.

According to TFRRS, the Indiana women return six of their top-seven varsity runners from the 2021 cross country season.

Six!

And while many of those women have a combination of redshirt and pandemic-extended eligibility, it's clear that there is still some untapped upside in a squad that is sneaky-deep.

But this race will be no walk in the park for the still-developing Hoosiers. They’ll be matched up with the high-ceiling core of North Carolina, a proven veteran squad from Georgetown and an up-and-coming Villanova lineup.

Backend support behind Sarah Schmitt will be crucial in this race. Mariah Wehrle enters her sophomore season as the most likely sidekick to Schmitt based on her encouraging results from while Mikaela Ramirez could potentially complete Indiana’s front-three.

This field of over 100 runners will be large enough to provide a high-level overlook into where Indiana’s stock is headed in 2022, but it will largely hinge on where Wehrle and Ramirez finish in comparison to the competition.

If those women fade outside the top-20 during tomorrow's race, all will not be lost for the Hoosiers in a year where the BIG 10 is largely wide-open outside its top-two or three teams.

But if Wehrle and Ramirez (or another Hoosier runner) can finish ahead of (or near) even the fourth or fifth scorers from Georgetown and North Carolina (presumably within the top-15 of this field), then this Indiana team could be primed to repeat (or exceed) their 5th place finish from last year’s BIG 10 XC Championships.

A little home cooking can go a long way, and even if this lineup doesn’t materialize into something nationally competitive this fall, then we may look back at this Coaching Tree Invitational in 2023 or 2024 as the starting point of an upward trend for the Hoosiers' lineup.

This Is A Huge Opportunity For The Georgetown Men + Parker Stokes vs UNC vs Theo Quax

Written by Gavin Struve

While most teams in this field are testing the waters of this early-season race, the Georgetown men are attacking it like few teams approach a mid-September race.

The Hoyas, who were listed in the “Just Missed” category of our TSR top-25 preseason team rankings, are fielding what is expected to be their current varsity lineup plus a few others. All that’s missing is the trio of superstar true freshmen — Jackson Barna, Charlie North and Caleb Lakeman.

This early all-in effort that we could see from the Hoyas on Friday may prove to be a brilliant idea. The UNC men are fielding a lineup that isn't completely stacked, but it's almost surely going to be an "A" squad by the end of the season as far as Kolas scoring is concerned.

The Tar Heels will likely be favored to win this race, but they are capable of being defeated with neither Parker Wolfe nor Patrick Anderson in this lineup.

That, in turn, could lead to the Hoyas (or even an underrated NAU squad) to securing an overall win over a UNC roster.

However, the biggest storyline for tomorrow's race will be following how star steeplechaser Parker Stokes looks on the grass. He'll be toeing the line against a few promising UNC talents as well as Theo Quax, a former NAU varsity scorer who ran 13:41 for 5000 meters this past spring.

Stokes, a breakout distance talent from the most recent outdoor track season, has been a solid fringe low-stick on the grass before, but emerged as a superstar on the track this past spring with a bronze-medal finish at the NCAA Outdoor Championships, posting a new personal best of 8:18.

That type of result suggests that, when he's at his best, he could be a top-20 talent on the grass.

However, Stokes has rarely shown that type of megastar potential over 8000 meters and 10,000 meters, although he did win the Mid-Atlantic regional title last fall. We have him in the “Just Missed” section of our TSR individual preseason rankings, but if he wins this race as an individual, and he very well could, then that preseason designation may make us look foolish.

Of course, it's not like Stokes is necessarily going to breeze past this field. The North Carolina men have numerous guys who could have a breakout performance and Theo Quax looks like he's firing on all cylinders again after a great year on the track.

Stokes will be favored, but if Quax takes home the victory, then that wouldn't necessarily be an upset, either.

But what about the middle portion of the Hoyas' lineup?

Georgetown's finishing order from this meet will hardly be static throughout the season, but tomorrow's race could provide an early indicator of who may be ready for a leap.

Mateo Althouse is a second-year athlete who was a blue-chip recruit and state champion at the highest level in Oregon, running borderline competitive Division One times as a prep star. He should, at the very least, be in the varsity lineup this fall. Classmate Lucas Guerra and fellow youngster Abel Teffra, both sub-four minute milers, have similar potential after a phenomenal year on the track.

As for the more proven commodities, Shea Weilbaker, Jantz Tostenson, Quinn Nicholson and Camden Gilmore are a few names who have raced in at least one NCAA Championship meet in the past. Could any of these more seasoned runners spark a breakout campaign on Friday?

By virtue of having their full lineup on Friday, Georgetown is also the most interesting. We shouldn’t put too much stock into middling results in what could be an effective rust-buster race, but a big performance shouldn’t be ignored, either.

The Villanova Women Won't Have Their Full Lineup, But That's Not The Point Of Tomorrow's Race

Written by Garrett Zatlin

Last year, the Villanova women flexed one of the better scoring trios in the country. The combination of Lydia Olivere, Maggie Smith and Sadie Sigfstead all finished in the top-100 of the 2021 NCAA XC Championships and all three women return in 2022.

However, of those three women, only Olivere is set to toe the line tomorrow.

Expecting this Villanova team to defeat Georgetown or North Carolina tomorrow morning would be ill-advised. However, that's likely not what the Wildcats are looking to accomplish. Instead, they probably want to see who can fill the backend of their scoring lineup to make up for the deficiencies that this team experienced last year.

Anna Helwigh was not a major contributor for this team last fall, but she had a breakout year in the steeplechase this past spring. With a new PR of 9:58 in the event, it's clear that she has enough talent to close the massive middle-lineup gap that Villanova had last fall.

Well, that's at least what we think she's capable of doing.

Luckily, Friday's race will give us an exciting glimpse into what her true potential could be in 2022. Helwigh won't have to face an overwhelmingly large or elite field, but her fitness will be tested by teams like Georgetown and North Carolina, each of whom will give Helwigh plenty of women to chase.

It's a very similar story for former Penn runner, Ariana Gardizy, who is now with Villanova.

The Ivy League graduate transfer isn't someone who we have reported (yet) this fall, but she could be the crucial fifth scorer that this team needs to thrive come November.

On the track, Gardizy has run 9:37 (3k) and 16:29 (5k). Last fall, she placed 15th at the Ivy League XC Championships and then 22nd at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships.

On paper, this former Penn runner isn't necessarily a superstar or someone expected to hold the same scoring potential that Helwigh likely has. Of course, Gardizy doesn't necessarily need to have that kind of scoring prowess. As long as she replicates her best cross country results on a consistent basis in 2022, then concerns about Villanova's scoring depth suddenly become negligible.

Gardizy doesn't need to blow her competition out of the water tomorrow morning, but a top-20 finish could go a long way in terms of the Wildcats' postseason hopes.

What Will We Learn About The North Carolina Men? How Competitive Can A Limited NAU Squad Be?

Written by Garrett Zatlin

There are a ton of exciting developments that we could see from the North Carolina men during Friday's race. They will be toeing the line against a loaded Georgetown squad that could prove to be fairly dangerous if the Tar Heels aren't careful.

They'll also be facing a VERY underrated Northern Arizona lineup. Despite the Lumberjacks not fielding most of their top men, they'll still have names like Theo Quax, Caleb Easton, Corey Gorgas, Santiago Prosser, Jack Scherer and Kang Nyoak in this race.

That is not a group of men who you can just tempo away from.

With star low-stick Parker Wolfe (TSR #21) and Patrick Anderson not in North Carolina's lineup this weekend, could we say that the Georgetown men are actually the favorite in this race? And could the Lumberjack men legitimately take down the Tar Heels?

Personally, I wouldn't go that far, but there are a ton of questions surrounding this Chapel Hill-based team that could get answered (in some capacity) following tomorrow's race.

How good can 13:42 (5k) runner Connor Lane be after remaining absent from competition over the years and recently transferring from Stanford?

Which version of John Tatter will we see in this race? The guy who started out strong last fall or the guy who was left off of this team's national meet roster in 2021?

Someone on this team is due for a breakout race, but who will that be? Could it be Marshall Williamson? Colton Sands? Sully Shelton? Crawford Hope?

Like we've been saying all summer long, the Tar Heel men have a TON of potential firepower and almost unlimited upside. It would actually be a surprise if one of the men I just mentioned wasn't in the top-three of tomorrow's results.

The only problem is that we don't know who that guy will be.

We know that the North Carolina men have a standout front-runners in Parker Wolfe and Patrick Anderson, but the rest of this lineup is where the most uncertainty lies. This race could end up determining what (some of) this varsity seven looks like throughout the rest of the season.

But as we mentioned in an earlier section, this race will likely produce a Kolas point for either the Georgetown men or the UNC men, depending on whoever wins, although that point would likely be more important for the former.

The Tar Heels are by no means in an easy region, but they should be favored for a top-two automatic qualifying spot when the postseason rolls around. The Hoyas, however, are in a region where Villanova and Princeton could realistically take the top-two spots, forcing the Georgetown men into a scenario where they need to rely on Kolas points.

If Georgetown beats North Carolina tomorrow, and UNC ends up running most of these men in their postseason varsity lineup, then the Hoyas could garner a valuable point that may be needed to advance to the national meet.

That, in turn, will leave UNC to run away from a very motivated Georgetown squad on Friday morning. And with the Northern Arizona men also in the mix, fielding multiple men who could crack the top-10, this may be one of the more challenging early-season meets that any team in the NCAA has to face this year.

The Best Battle Of The Weekend: Georgetown Women vs North Carolina Women

Written by Garrett Zatlin

With the Villanova women and the Northern Arizona women opting to hold out some of their best scorers from this race, tomorrow's 6k race will likely come down to Georgetown and North Carolina.

And on paper, that could be the best race of the entire weekend, nationally.

In our eyes, the Tar Heels are clear favorites. The combination of Brynn Brown, Sasha Neglia, Kelsey Harrington and Fatima Alanis is a deep scoring contingent that will be difficult for most teams to handle.

That is, after all, why the UNC women are listed at TSR #9 in our preseason team rankings.

And with the Georgetown women fielding a lineup that doesn't include two of their three newest transfers, Katy-Ann McDonald and Andrea Claeson, the scoring depth of the Hoyas will have even more challenges trying to match the Tar Heels.

But let's not forget that Georgetown arguably has the top-two women in this entire field. The combination of Maggie Donahue and Sami Corman could realistically go 1-2 in these overall results. And while that is far from a guarantee, that scoring potency could allow the Georgetown women to keep things competitive with the ladies from Chapel Hill.

Not only that, but newest graduate transfer Grace Jensen could put herself in the top-10 of this race. If that happens, then it would be hard to envision the Tar Heels simply running away with the win on Friday morning.

Of course, trying to figure out who the latter two scorers in Georgetown's lineup will be is admittedly more an unknown than it is for UNC. While neither team has a ton of clarity about who precisely those backend contributors will be, the Tar Heels do have more options and more proven names to choose from.

That's not to say that Georgetown doesn't have options, Cate Joaquin and Chloe Scrimgeour are two very exciting distance talents, but there seems to be a broader safety net for UNC.

Are we saying that North Carolina can't lose on Friday? No, certainly not. They'll need to put in a strong effort to take down Georgetown. If the Hoyas have a perfect race, a potential upset isn't entirely out of the question...although it is hard to envision.