TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #1 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Shocker, right?

Anyone familiar with the Northern Arizona men almost certainly knew that this ranking was coming. The Lumberjacks are currently in the midst of a dynasty, boasting the all-around best team in nearly every aspect of cross country.

Trying to properly express how good this program has been over the last seven-ish years is hard to put into words. What we're witnessing from NAU right now is equivalent to the success that we've seen from the Golden State Warriors, Alabama football or the New England Patriots.

Now, in 2022, the Lumberjacks will prove to be a problem for their opponents once more.

The only question is...can anyone take down the men from Flagstaff, Arizona?

* * *

The Lumberjacks ventured into the 2021 cross country season as the fairly clear favorites for the national title. They had just put together one of the most impressive national meet efforts in NCAA history during the winter months and most of their top men had returned in the fall.

At the Cowboy Jamboree, the NAU men wasted no time when it came to battling elite competition. Oklahoma State, Colorado, Texas and Tulsa, all of which were some of the best squads in the nation, would be the Lumberjacks' first true challenge.

Of course, I'm using the word "challenge" loosely.

The combination of Abdi Nur, Nico Young and Drew Bosley turned out to be the elite scoring trio that we all knew that they could be. With finishes 3-4-5, neither Colorado nor Oklahoma State came anywhere close to matching Northern Arizona's firepower.

Admittedly, we would see a small-ish drop-off after those three men, but Nebraska graduate transfer George Kusche and veteran Ryan Raff were more than capable of closing out the scoring with 13th and 16th place finishes, respectively.

With a score of 40 points, NAU handled their elite-level competition almost like it was nothing, taking down both Oklahoma State and Colorado by 22 points, a fairly significant margin in a field that was so top-heavy.

But the Cowboy Jamboree was only an appetizer before the larger and more competitive meets began. That, of course, didn't really slow down NAU...at all.

At Pre-Nationals, the Lumberjacks were somehow even better than they were a few weeks prior. The same elite scoring trio of Nur, Bosley and Young (this time in a slightly different order) went 4-6-9, putting three men in the top-10 overall results.

Only one other team, BYU, was able to put just two runners in the top-10.

With Kusche delivering an outstanding 20th place finish of his own and Theo Quax beginning a comeback campaign with a 24th place result, Northern Arizona had tallied just 64 points in an absolutely loaded field.

Not only did the NAU men beat Colorado, Arkansas and BYU, but they actually beat both Colorado and Arkansas by exactly HALF of their own points.

That wasn't just a win for Northern Arizona, that was a statement.

At the BIG Sky XC Championships and the Mountain Regional XC Championships, NAU took care of business. Those meets, however, were far from their primary focus. The national meet, of course, took priority.

There's no sense in dancing around the final result: In Tallahassee, NAU took home gold in what had to be the least surprising development of the entire 2021 fall cross country season.

The Nur-Young-Bosley trio ran exactly how we thought they would, posting finishes of 7-11-13 in the overall standings. Only Arkansas was able to keep things remotely interesting through the first three scorers at the national meet.

However, with Kusche (37th) and Hasty (39th) securing All-American honors of their own, it was hard to see a scenario where any other program was going to challenge NAU in the slightest.

With a score of 92 points, the Flagstaff-based men took home gold by 45 points.

* * *

At this point in their dynasty, I'm not asking anyone to be shocked by NAU's performances or to profusely (and excessively) express how amazing they are -- we've already done that. A lot.

And all of that will still be true three months from now.

However, what I am asking you to do is to at least appreciate what you've been seeing, and what you will continue to see, out of the Lumberjacks. Dynasties of this nature are rare and we just happen to be spoiled.

In 2022, that ongoing dominance will likely continue for NAU, although it will need to be done without their single-most important runner from last fall.

I am, of course, talking about Abdi Nur.

We could go in-depth and talk about Nur's incredible achievements on the track this past winter and spring. That, however, would ultimately not make a difference, collegiately. That's because the former NAU megastar has turned pro, signing a Nike contract this past summer.

Nur may not have won a single cross country race last fall, but he also never finished outside of the top-seven in any meet that he toed the line for.

Losing Nur is obviously a concerning development. Not necessarily because of the scoring that he brought to the table last fall, but because we don't 100% know how his loss will impact the latter-half of NAU's scoring lineup.

Last fall, the Lumberjacks had the best top-five in the country (and it wasn't close). However, in most of their meets, there was a significant drop-off after their fifth runner. In fact, if you remove Nur from the national meet results, then NAU loses the title.

Although, in fairness, even if you were to remove Nur from the Pre-National results, the Lumberjacks would have still won fairly comfortably thanks to a 56th place finish from veteran Ryan Raff.

But the point still stands. NAU was perfect through five runners last fall, but they were somewhat vulnerable after their fifth scorer -- well, at least as vulnerable as a team like NAU can be.

Regardless, the top-four NAU returners from last year's national meet may, depending on how you view Oklahoma State and Stanford, be the best four scorers that a single team has this fall.

We could go in-depth about Nico Young and Drew Bosley, but everyone already knows how elite those guys are. They were both top-10 finishers at Pre-Nationals and top-15 finishers at the national meet.

Even if that duo took the top-two spots at last year's NCAA XC Championships, they would have only improved their team score by a collective total of 17 points -- and that's the best-case scenario.

But just because their scoring improvements will be limited doesn't mean that they aren't important. NAU will thrive as long as Young and Bosley run to (or near) their full potential. The good news is that these two men were extremely reliable last fall -- and that's not something that can be said about all low-sticks on other top-ranked teams.

And then there are the other two All-American returners.

As long as George Kusche and Brodey Hasty replicate their best results from last fall, then there shouldn't be any reason why NAU loses the national title in November. As far as third and fourth scorers go, Kusche and Hasty are amongst the best in the country.

One could say, "But Hasty was inconsistent last fall! He didn't even make the Lumberjacks' varsity lineup at Pre-Nationals!" And you would be right. For the most part, Hasty wasn't amazing leading up to the national meet. It was a very similar story for his winter cross country campaign.

But here's a fun fact: Hasty has earned national meet finishes of 39th (2021 fall), 44th (2021 winter) and 46th (2019 fall). When it has mattered the most, he steps up and delivers a top-50 finish at the national meet.

Does his regular season inconsistency linger in the back of our heads a bit?

Yes, admittedly, it does.

But should that really matter if Hasty performs at his best in the only meet that truly counts for NAU's national title hopes?

Well, no, I guess that inconsistency doesn't matter in that case.

Kusche, meanwhile, is a little bit of a different story. Despite some past postseason woes, the former Nebraska star delivered an All-American result in his first season as a Lumberjack. And when you look at the rest of his regular season, he was really solid!

However, Kusche would then venture to the track. And after running a phenomenal time of 13:28 for 5000 meters in December of 2021, the newest Lumberjack ace faltered during the winter months before rallying a bit in the spring.

Much like Hasty, there is some uncertainty as to how Kusche will perform throughout the entirety of this season. The good news is that he gave us zero reason to doubt him last fall and his outdoor track season was promising as well.

Through four runners, we feel extremely confident about NAU's chances of repeating as national title winners in the fall of 2022. Of course, it takes five men to win gold.

And in the case that one of NAU's top-four runners falters on the most important stage of the season, their supporting cast will need to step up and fill-in their respective gaps.

Luckily for the Lumberjacks, they have one of the deepest distance rosters in the country.

* * *

The final, but maybe not fifth, piece of this Northern Arizona lineup will almost certainly be Colin Sahlman, the superstar rookie from Newbury Park High School.

The California native is one of the best prep-level distance talents to ever step foot on a track or cross country course, owning times of 1:48 (800), 3:56 (mile), 8:33 (3200), 14:03 (5k XC) and 14:27 (5k track). The 2021 Garmin RunningLane XC National Championship winner is beyond elite, owning marks that (in our eyes) put him amongst the top-30 in the NCAA this fall.

The Stride Report has Sahlman listed at TSR #29 in our preseason individual rankings, a spot that may be considered underwhelming when it comes to his true potential.

Suggesting that a true freshman is a guaranteed lock to be an All-American in his first season of cross country eligibility is admittedly a bold statement...and yet, for Colin Sahlman, it's not just a realistic expectation, it's extremely probable, as well.

History says that Sahlman not being an All-American this fall would be a shock. His high school times are amongst the best ever and it was clear that he was the nation's most dominant runner on the grass as well.

With former high school teammate and current college teammate Nico Young having national-caliber success during his rookie year, everything that we've seen from Young suggests that Sahlman is going to be a megastar in his first year in the NCAA.

If he delivers an All-American result like we think he will, then any consistency concerns about Northern Arizona's lineup may as well be a moot point. Sahlman is just that good.

We also need to highlight long-time veteran Ryan Raff, someone who has been fantastic on the track and occasionally great on the grass.

With times of 7:59 (3k), 13:34 (5k converted) and 28:56 (10k), this Lumberjack standout is someone who could absolutely play a role in NAU's varsity lineup like he did last fall. He was, after all, the team's fifth scorer at both the Cowboy Jamboree (16th) and Pre-Nationals (56th).

There's a very good chance that Raff not only emerges as a varsity contributor for NAU this fall, but maybe even a scorer as well. However, his consistency will be monitored closely. If he can replicate his best regular seasons on the national stage, then the Lumberjacks might as well be given the national title before the race is over.

That, however, isn't a guarantee to happen.

In terms of returning veterans, Theo Quax may end up being the biggest x-factor on this team. The Kiwi distance standout was phenomenal as a rookie and as a redshirt freshman. However, injuries slowed down Quax up until the 2021-22 academic calendar.

Quax was 24th at Pre-Nationals and 114th at the NCAA XC Championships last fall. Those are solid marks that would help most nationally ranked cross country teams. But let's not forget, this is someone who was 4th at the John McNichols Invite and then 16th at Nuttycombe during the 2019 cross country season.

We don't just think that Quax can be an All-American-caliber scorer, we know he can. And after running 13:41 for 5000 meters this past spring, the 3:58 miler has given us even more confidence in his abilities.

Quax is certainly trending upwards, but his national meet and Cowboy Jamboree performances from last fall weren't amazing. But at this point in our article, all that the Lumberjacks truly need are backend runners to fill out the rest of their lineup.

Raff and Quax aren't even expected to be scorers this fall, but in the instance that someone in NAU's projected top-five has a poor day, then just one of those men will need to step up and contribute meaningful points.

Luckily, there is a large handful of men who could be due for a special season if called upon.

Current freshman Aidan Puffer was a superstar high schooler whose aerobic dominance perfectly meshes with this endurance-centric program. If he's not redshirted, then he could be a name to watch.

Aidan Barnhill, another youngster, is a sneaky-good name as well. He was an underrated recruit out of high school despite holding a great resume. Watch out for him.

Australia distance runner Kang Nyoak is due for a breakout season. He does, after all, own a personal best of 13:47 for 5000 meters.

Caleb Easton, Corey Gorgas, Santiago Prosser and Cael Grotenhuis are all names to watch as well. In theory, one of those men could eventually move into a varsity spot depending on how they're running.

And honestly, I'm not sure if we even covered every key name to watch this fall.

This NAU roster is just that good.

* * *

I'll admit, I don't know if this is even one of NAU's three-best cross country lineups that they've had since the start of their dynasty. This projected lineup, on paper, isn't completely void of vulnerabilities. Certain runners have been a bit inconsistent and those same men will likely be relied upon heavily this fall.

And yet, despite all of that, I just don't know how the Lumberjacks lose a race this season. The Oklahoma State men do have a complete lineup that can theoretically go toe-to-toe with NAU, but no matter what way you slice it, the Lumberjacks are just better.

Stanford, meanwhile, has the best firepower in the country, but we have no idea what the backend of the Cardinal's lineup is going to look like.

But what NAU does better than any other team in the country is employ a "next man up" mentality. And what Coach Mike Smith has done in terms of year-over-year development is so unbelievably impressive.

In fact, I would bet that NAU could put together two varsity lineups that would be ranked in our XC Top 25 -- they're simply that deep.

NAU's dominance has reached the point where fans, in an effort to be edgy or different, may try to suggest that Oklahoma State and Stanford are going to be the better teams this fall -- and I'm not even saying that they'll be wrong.

But at this moment in time, there is almost no argument that is good enough to suggest that the NAU men won't be the top-ranked team in the country this fall.

And I imagine that they would agree with me.