First Thoughts: Payton Jordan Fireworks

The Penn Relays, Drake Relays and Payton Jordan have already given us a tsunami of results to sift and sort through...and Saturday isn't even over yet! However, for the sake of simplicity, we thought we would evaluate some of the results from Palo Alto (i.e. Payton Jordan) first.

And, as always, if you don't see a key result in this update, it will most likely appear during our Sunday analysis. Let's jump into it...

Julia Heymach Runs 4:11 at Payton Jordan, Teammate Christina Aragon Runs 4:12

The Stanford veterans had quite the day on their home track, posting some outstanding times that very much put both women in the All-American conversation -- something that we admittedly shouldn't be surprised about for either woman.

Heymach is a star in this event. She ran a jaw-dropping 4:04 mark for 1500 meters during the Olympic Trials last year, forcing her way into the national title conversation both this past winter and this spring.

A newly posted 4:11 mark is wildly impressive, but it's hardly surprising given her past success. The real value in her resume is the fact that she's highly experienced, super versatile and still has a tremendously high ceiling that has come out in a championship race before.

Heymach's 4:04 personal best is easy to forget about since it came outside of the collegiate season, but that should leave us even more encouraged for the next month ahead.

If she's running 4:11 with a month to go until the NCAA postseason begins and she still has additional room to improve, then even a 4:07 mark at the NCAA Championships, which is plenty realistic for someone like her, would likely win her title.

As for Aragon, she has dealt with numerous ups and downs throughout her collegiate career with injuries playing a role. But when she's at her best and firing on all cylinders, she can be scary good.

Aragon has run 4:09 for 1500 meters before, so her recent 4:12, much like Heymach, leaves her in a perfect position to peak in the postseason and inch closer to her 4:09 fitness which, in theory, would do more than just put her in the All-American conversation.

But even then, that is asking quite a bit.

Despite the top-heaviness of last year's field, Aragon still produced an 8th place All-American finish. With the women's 1500 meters appearing to be less firepower-centric this spring and certain women potentially dropping down in distance to the 800 meters, we might be looking at Aragon being a top-five finisher in this event come June.

Ahmed Muhumed Validates Breakout Indoor Track Season With 13:26 Mark, Barry Keane (13:26) & Acer Iverson (13:28) Also Go Sub-13:30

I'll admit, I didn't at all see Muhumed running 13:26 for 5000 meters at Boston University this past winter. The Florida State veteran had been a solid and fairly competitive long distance talent for a while now, but his 13:26 mark took me by surprise. Prior to that race, he hadn't shown anything to suggest that he was in that fitness.

And admittedly, I was still skeptical of Muhumed even after that performance. I wasn't entirely confident in his ability to consistently race at that level or to execute on certain race tactics. For the most part, my assumption was proven correct at the indoor national meet when he finished second-to-last.

However, after running 3:42 for 1500 meters and now blasting yet another 13:26 mark, Muhumed has shown that his fitness is certainly no fluke. He really is that fast and the best part is that he can do it on more than one occasion.

Yes, it's true, I still have some reservations about his postseason potential. I still question if his fitness will be fully reflected during the various changes of pace that usually come at the national meet. I also can't help but notice that Muhumed's two best performances have come in settings that were designed to be all-out, time-trial efforts.

Still, the fact that Muhumed can run this fast more than once is encouraging. When you consider that the national meet will likely be fast, that setting will likely favor his strengths as a runner.

As for Keane, I want to be more excited for him, I really do, but this is exactly what we expected. Both Maura and myself actually expected Keane to run a bit faster, but we've seen the Butler star do this before. He posts ridiculously fast times in the longer distances during the regular season and thrives in the 10k/5k distances.

Keane will likely get to the national meet, but once he's there, that will be the venue where we really learn if anything has changed. He is absolutely an All-American-caliber distance runner, even in a year like this, but executing at the NCAA Championships has been a struggle for him at times.

In his four attempts at the national meet across all three seasons of competition, Keane has yet to earn a top All-American result.

Admittedly, that is a big ask of anyone, but given his personal bests of 13:25 (5k) and his recent 28:15 (10k), this is someone who should have an All-American honor on his resume. And if there was any year for him to do it, this would be the year, especially given how he's in peak fitness right now.

As for Iverson's 13:28 mark, this is a huge validating result that, frankly, everyone kind of expected. I said that Iverson would be the second-best collegiate in this field and run 13:27. Maura said Iverson would be the third-best collegiate in this field and run 13:28.

Maura, as you can tell, was the winner for that prediction.

But at the very least, this result is simply a building block of momentum for the up-and-coming Harvard star. He ran 13:32 for 5000 meters this past winter and has already run 28:24 for 10,000 meters this spring.

Iverson doesn't have bad races and his 40th place All-American finish at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall, despite being the final All-American spot, showed us that Iverson could at least deliver when it matters the most.

However, that 40th place finish isn't at all reflective of Iverson's peak fitness. Instead, his latest result at Payton Jordan is a better suggestion of where his overall talent sits within the NCAA.

There's still a few unknowns surrounding Iverson, mainly because we've never seen him at this level of fitness before, but this is also something that we fully expected to happen.

What does that mean for the next month ahead? Well, your guess is as good as mine.

As for a few other results...

Tulsa' Scott Beattie ran 13:31, Southern Utah's Nate Osterstock ran 13:33, Iona's Ehab El-Sandali ran 13:35, Montana State's Ben Perrin ran 13:36, BYU's Brandon Garnica ran 13:37, Adam State's Awet Beraki ran 13:38 and Weber State's Christina Allen ran 13:40.

A few quick notes and then we'll move on...

• Beattie is much better than some people realize.

• In my opinion, Osterstock is a better 5k runner than a 1500 meter runner.

• This was an uncharacteristic "off" day from El-Sandali and it still wasn't bad at all!

• Ben Perrin's performance is validation for how great Montana State as a whole has been this year.

• I thought a field like this favored Garnica, so I'm a little surprised that he faltered.

• Solid runs for Beraki and Allen, but they didn't really surprise me.

Adva Cohen Runs 15:26, Emerges as Top Collegiate Over Ryan (15:30), Herberg (15:31) and Schadler (15:31)

Wow, there is a lot to unpack here.

New Mexico's Adva Cohen is an experienced veteran who has a history of running super fast times. She's been historically great in the 5k, but for the most part, she is predominately known as a steeplechaser.

In fact, I was super surprised that Cohen didn't opt to pursue the steeplechase at Payton Jordan on Friday night. This is a meet known for its incredible steeplechase fields and we've seen Cohen contest the steeplechase at Payton Jordan before.

Not only that, but Cohen had already run a super fast 5k before this weekend! The Lobo star ran 15:29 at Bryan Clay just two weeks ago, so it seemed unlikely that she would go after another all-out 5k at Payton Jordan.

But hey, what do I know?

Cohen did, in fact, race the 5k at Payton Jordan and the decision turned out to be a fairly good one. Cohen improved her 5k personal best to 15:26 on Friday night, giving her top collegiate honors in a field that featured Florida State superstar Lauren Ryan as well as the Washington duo of Herberg and Schadler.

This result is super encouraging for Cohen.

Why? Well, she admittedly has a history of inconsistency.

In fact, just look at her most recent indoor track season. She started the indoor season off with a strong 15:33 mark for 5000 meters back in December, but then struggled to be competitive during the regular season and then faltered on the national stage.

Her 15:29 from earlier this spring was encouraging, but in my mind, it largely didn't matter until I saw more consistency to validate that result.

And maybe that's what Friday's race was all about. Cohen was able to not only post another elite result and build consistency, but she was also able to contend with, and take down, a handful of the best distance runners in the country.

This is an overwhelmingly positive result for Cohen, but now I have to ask...is she going to pursue the 5k in the postseason? Will she go all-in for the event? Will she also contest the steeplechase this spring? If so, will that be her primary event and effectively ignore the 5k?

Cohen's postseason plans just got a little more complicated, but for the most part, I think it's safe to say that she is a steeplechaser first and a 5k runner second...I think.

As for Lauren Ryan, I thought her 15:30 result was a very solid, although there was a part of me that thought that she would run faster. This is someone who ran 8:47 for 3000 meters during the indoor track season and who thrived in an elite field when she ran that mark.

This Payton Jordan 5k offered a similar high-caliber field and with the 3k out of the picture this spring, I thought this would be a race where Ryan went under 15:25 as she focuses entirely on the 5k.

Ultimately, she ran 15:30, which is still an excellent and nationally competitive, but there is a part of me that believes that Ryan is more of a 3k runner following this result. She could drop down in distance to the 1500 meters this spring and focus on that, but I think she's better suited for the 5k rather than the metric mile.

Truthfully, either option would be great for Ryan, but we have to remember that she ran 15:22 for 5000 meters back in Portland during May of 2021 unattached. The potential and upside is certainly there for her to be a nationally competitive factor at this distance.

As for Herberg and Schadler, I love these results for both of these women, especially Schadler.

Herberg is a long distance star and historically thrives in the 10k and the 5k. I was a little surprised that she didn't do the 10k, but an aggressively paced 5k and a history of success in the event from this past winter ultimately yielded a 15:31 result which, for as impressive as that was, is not all that surprising.

Herberg will likely play more of a role in the 10k than the 5k, but it will be interesting to see if her race tactics and pacing approach varies on the national stage.

As for Schadler, this was a huge race. Both Maura and myself said that this Washington star needed a good performance on Friday night and sure enough, Schadler delivered.

The Husky veteran ran 15:31 to give her resume a spark after a very solid, but somewhat unexciting indoor track season. And make no mistake, Schadler was far from bad this past winter, but it was clear that she wasn't quite at 100%.

However, her 15:31 result is very telling. This is the Allie Schadler that we've grown accustomed to seeing. I'll admittedly need to see a bit more consistency from her before I put her back in the All-American conversation, but this result was awfully encouraging.

Wildschutt Blasts 27:38 Mark For 10,000 Meters, Stanford Trio of Hicks (27:40), Sprout (27:42) and Robinson (27:47) All Run Sub-28, As Does Harvard's Matthew Pereira (27:45)

If you had told me coming into 2022 that Florida State's Adriaan Wildschutt would run 13:09 during indoors and finish just one second off of the NCAA indoor 5k record and then go to the outdoor oval where he would run the NCAA #12 all-time 10k mark of 27:38 to beat Stanford's elite trio of stars...I probably wouldn't have believed you.

And yet, at the same time, it makes total sense that he's flexing this dominace.

Wildschutt has been a long distance star for years now. Dating back to his Coastal Carolina days, this is someone who thrived the longer the distance became. The 10k has historically been his sweet spot.

Not only that, but Wildschutt also had a tendency to be aggressive with pacing. He will absolutely go out and solo top marks and he thrives in time-trial settings. That early-race aggression has sometimes cost him tactically (mainly from his days at Coastal Carolina), but ever since transferring to Florida State, Wildschutt's race tactics have become significantly more refined...and he's just flat-out better.

If anyone was going to be running some of the fastest 10k and 5k marks in NCAA history, it makes sense that it would be Wildschutt...well, at least on paper it does.

Still, this is a different level of fitness that I admittedly wasn't expecting to see from him. Wildschutt's 27:38 mark is monstrous and it shows us that he has an overwhelming level of fitness that will allow him to compete with (and often defeat) some of the best men in the NCAA.

Admittedly, my thoughts on Wildschutt's recent 10k are similar to the thoughts I had about his 13:09 mark for 5000 meters this past winter. This is an unreal display of raw fitness and it shows that he can stick with fast times....but!

As we saw in March, the national meet is almost never as linear as Payton Jordan when it comes to pacing. Come June, athletes won't necessarily be racing for time, but rather the win.

Wildschutt still held his own quite well at the indoor national meet, but it was clear that his front-running tactics weren't necessarily favorable to winning a national title on the indoor oval.

Now, all that being said, I believe that Wildschutt is better in the 10k than the 5k and I believe that the tactics we saw on the indoor oval back in March won't be as necessary as the tactics he'll need for the 10k come June (but still somewhat necessary).

I admittedly didn't believe that Wildschutt was a 5k title favorite this past winter after his crazy fast time, but I don't know if I would be willing to say the same thing after this 10k. I think the field he would face in the 10k this spring would be far more favorable than the 5k field that he faced during the indoor national meet.

Moving to the Stanford trio, can we really even be surprised anymore?

This group of three has just been incredible. I think a lot of people were high on Ky Robinson coming into this race, and rightfully so, but I made it clear in our meet preview that Hicks is better at the 10k and is more experienced at the same distance. He's also built up some promising momentum since the tail-end of the indoor track season.

For that reason, I had him at the Stanford runner in this race...and I was right!

Admittedly, I didn't think the collegiates in this race would so fast that they were ALL dipping under 27:50, but I did think that this entire Stanford trio would run under 28:00 and I did think that Hicks would be the top Cardinal runner.

I like Hicks. A lot. Ever since his surprisingly great kick at the indoor national meet to finish 3rd in the 3000 meters this past winter, I have found very few reasons to dislike what he brings to the table. He has built up key experience over the last few years, he clearly excels at the longer distances (specifically the 10k), he has national meet experience/success and now just ran a jaw-dropping mark of 27:40.

I think most people are under the assumption that Abdi Nur will be the national title favorite in the 10k later this spring, but Hicks is at his best in the 10k and he's proven to be an elite star. One day, he'll win a 10k national title. Whether that be in June or in the future, I don't know.

As for Sprout, he is so. darn. good. Despite his youth, he's been incredibly consistent and the fact that he just dropped a 27:42 mark as a sophomore is incredible.

Sprout has rapidly become one of the most reliable distance runners in the NCAA this year. He is always running fast times and earned two All-American honors at the indoor national meet this past winter.

I can't say a bad thing about him. He's awesome. He'll eventually win a national title one day, but in what event? Honestly, I'm not sure.

Then there is Ky Robinson, the one name who everyone has been super high on after his incredible string of 5k results from the indoor track season up and through the Stanford Invite from earlier this month.

I think a lot of people were thinking that Robinson would be the top Stanford runner in this 10k race, and while that isn't necessarily a bad take, I do think that there were more signs for guys like Hicks to emerge with that honor.

Robinson had never run a 10k before, so the fact that he still posted a 27:47 mark is wildly impressive. However, we now have an entirely question...

What event(s) does Robinson pursue at the national meet?

Robinson in the 5k feels like a given. He has made that his marquee event in 2022 and has had plenty of success in that race despite facing super strong fields. The 5k is also after the steeplechase at the national meet, making the steeple/5k double, while certainly very challenging, somewhat doable.

The steeplechase is also the event that Robinson has had the most historical success in. Last spring, he ran 8:32 in the event which gave him a 6th place All-American finish.

But will the steeplechase even be on tap for Robinson this spring? He has yet to contest the race and has instead focused on the 5k and the 10k. After running incredible times in both events, is the Stanford runner switching his focus to the longer distances?

Finally, let's chat about Harvard's Matthew Pereira who actually finished ahead of Robinson with a time of 27:45.

Pereira is unquestionably a long distance specialist who gets better the longer the distance becomes. That fact should hardly be surprising when looking at his resume. Since beginning to breakout as a standout runner in 2019, Pereira has gone on to be a cross country All-American and he ran 13:45 for 5000 meters this past winter.

Honestly, I want to say that there was a notably fast 5k or 10k time on his resume that he ran unattached, but I can't seem to find that, so do with that possible info what you will.

Even so, I don't think any of us saw Pereira running 27:45. That's a monumental result and it completely changes how we view him as a competitive. Not just because he ran fast, but because he also outran Ky Robinson.

I was expecting this Harvard star to run somewhere under 28:20, but seeing him convincingly dip into the 27:40s is unbelievable. I am super impressed.

That said, I think we need to see how Pereira is going to fare on the national stage. His 35th place All-American cross country this past fall was nice, but that result isn't indicative of how far Pereira's fitness has come since then.

Pereira's inexperience and lack of championship race tactics on the track certainly needs to be considered. However, at the very least, we now know that he's capable of sticking with a super hot pace should someone get aggressive at the front of the national meet 10k.

If that happens, then at least the leaders, in theory, won't just run away from him in that scenario.

New Mexico's Elise Thorner Runs Big 9:32 Steeple PR

Elise Thorner is a name who needed to be on your radar prior to this Friday. Because if she wasn't, then this result may have caught you off guard.

And I'll admit, I was plenty familiar with her accomplishments, but I did not at all believe that she would run 9:32 in the steeplechase last night. Maura, of course, said she would run 9:34 which just goes to show you why she's doing the women's rankings.

Thorner has been outstanding this spring. She was a very talented steeplechaser last year, running a then-PR of 9:52, but her other performances, while certainly very solid, weren't amongst the best in the NCAA.

That, however, all changed when Thorner shifted her attention to the outdoor oval. The New Mexico star began her season with a strong 4:17 mark for 1500 meters before putting together a fantastic 9:40/4:15 weekend double in the steeplechase and the 1500 meters at Bryan Clay earlier this month.

After recently posting such a strong steeplechase time, I was a little surprised that Thorner would go after the event two weeks later. However, it does make sense that she would choose, historically, the best meet in the NCAA for steeplechasers to give the event another go.

Right now, Thorner is on a massive hot streak. She's run two significant personal bests in the steeplechase which, by the way, currently sits at NCAA #9 all-time after Friday. That's a historic performance that some of us aren't fully recognizing or appreciating.

We could talk about Thorner's relative youth or the fact that she has very little championship experience. Yet, all of that seems like it's negated by the fact that Thorner attends New Mexico, historically the best steeplechase program in the NCAA.

It's rare to see Lobo standouts in the steeplechase falter in the postseason and given her current string of results, it's hard to see any downside with Thorner right now. When you tack on the improvements that she has made in the speed-based 1500 meters, I think she has an all-around resume that deserves more respect than it's getting right now.

Ahmed Jaziri Runs 8:24, Duncan Hamilton Runs 8:26 While Zach Litoff Runs 8:32, Clement Duigou Runs NCAA #2 All-Time (D2) Steeple Mark of 8:29

If you're a normal listener of the Blue Oval Podcast, you can probably guess what I'm going to say here.

I was right.

I was 100% right.

I have been saying for months now -- even for a year if you date back to last spring -- that Eastern Kentucky's Ahmed Jaziri was a national title contender, and even a national title favorite, in the steeplechase.

Did my fellow co-host Ben Weisel agree with me?

Nope.

Did our guest analyst Maura Beattie agree with me?

Not quite.

But now, with a monster 8:24 personal best under Ahmed Jaziri's belt, we now have to factor in the idea that Jaziri can, and maybe will, win a steeplechase national title in this event come June.

Jaziri, who originally hails from Tunisia, came to Eastern Kentucky in the summer of 2020 with an 8:35 steeplechase personal best. Since then, he has run 7:47 for 3000 meters, a flat-track converted 3:59 in the mile and now, 8:24 in the steeplechase.

Jaziri has been a standout talent for a while now, earning All-American honors in the 3000 meters during the 2021 indoor track season and finishing 10th in the steeplechase at the national meet last spring despite falling.

The potential has always been there for Jaziri to blast a monster time -- it's just taken a bit longer than I expected. But a sub-8:25 mark certainly felt like it was within reason (I thought) for someone like Jaziri. I also love the fact that he has extensive experience in this event as well as familiarity with NCAA competition.

The stars are aligning for Jaziri to be a national title winner. No, I don't think he's unbeatable and yes, his early-season performances, while not bad, didn't do much to excite me, but this is the home run mark that I've been waiting.

And when you look at all of his other marks, it's hard not to be encouraged.

As for Duncan Hamilton, this Montana State star is awesome. He's so darn good. In terms of value, he's one of the best in the NCAA when you consider his range from the mile up to the 5k along with the inclusion of the steeplechase.

In fact, as I really think about it, there haven't been a ton of steeplechase specialists who have been as nationally competitive (or as fast) in so many events as Hamilton. I'm not saying that there haven't been any but...there's not a lot of them.

After all, so far in his career, Hamilton has run 3:39 (1500), 3:56 (mile altitude converted), 7:45 (3k), 13:30 (5k) and now 8:26 (3k steeplechase). Not only that, but Hamilton is generally pretty consistent and can handle most race scenarios thrown at him (but not all).

The Montana State star hasn't amazing at past national meets in non-steeple scenarios, but let's not forget that this is a guy who ran 8:31 (twice) in the steeplechase last spring en route to a 5th place All-American finish -- so the potential for a special postseason is there.

I'll just go ahead and say it: I think Hamilton is a lock for an All-American honor in the steeplechase barring a trip/fall at the national meet or during qualifying. He's had national meet success in this event before, his momentum is at an all-time high, his 8:26 mark puts him in the national title conversation and he probably has the best all-around resume in the NCAA amongst steeplechasers.

Honestly, I could talk myself into Hamilton being my pick over Jaziri for the national title come June. But that's an article for a different day...

As for Zach Litoff, the Santa Clara standout who ran 8:32 in the steeplechase, you have to commend him for his recent progress. He came into this season with an 8:42 personal best, ran 8:37 earlier this season and has now run 8:32.

Litoff is gaining some serious momentum right now and when you consider how much experience he has, it's hard to think that this guy isn't going to the finals come June.

However, I do have one question: How far will this momentum take Litoff? If he continues on this path and carries this progression into the national meet, then he'll be a top-eight finisher without a doubt. But what if he plateaus here? Will that really even matter given his 8:32?

There's a lot more to like about Litoff than to dislike and frankly, that should make most people comfortable about his postseason chances when making your predictions.

Washington State's Colton Johnsen held his own and ran well by posting a time of 8:39. That's a fine result, but given his success during the indoor track season and the fact that he's run 8:32 before, this was probably not the time he wanted.

We also need to take some time to talk about Adams State's Clement Duigou.

WOW is this guy something else. His sudden and recent rise, stemming from the tail-end of the indoor track season, has been incredible. However, I don't think we were expecting him to win the first section of the steeplechase in a time of 8:29.

Duigou has to be, without question, the top favorite to win the steeplechase title this spring in the Division Two realm. That's a pretty crazy thought when you consider how fast the top of the steeplechase has been in D2 this year.

Here's another thought: What does Christian Noble run at the national meet? Noble, despite his success in a variety of distance events, has made the steeplechase a key part of his outdoor track identity -- but has yet to contest the event this spring, at least not at the time of publication.

Noble could certainly shift his attention away from the steeplechase and still find success at the national meet come May, but the steeple was an event that we thought he would seriously pursue this season...and he still could!

8:29, while certainly incredible, isn't out of reach for Noble.

But would Noble really want to go after an event that is so variable and open to mishaps while also dealing with one of the greatest steeplechasers in D2 history? That seems like a far more challenging task compared to the 1500 meters or the 5000 meters.

Finally, we have to give credit to Estanis Ruiz. The Loyola Marymount star and future Portland transfer didn't run a new PR, but he ran 8:38, one second off of his personal best while validating his breakout 8:37 from earlier in the season.