2022 Payton Jordan Preview & Predictions

Ah, yes. Payton Jordan week. The week that annually redefines our understanding of collegiates distance running greatness. With elite NCAA stars set to toe the line in Palo Alto on Friday night, we thought it was only necessary that many of these men and women were highlighted in a meet preview.

Below, myself and TSR veteran Maura Beattie answered some prompts regarding the entries and broke down who you need to watch on the west coast this weekend.

NOTE: Many of these prompts (and some of these answers) were put together before the start lists came out. It may be possible that certain names who were initially found in the entries lists are no longer found on the start list after switching events or dropping out of the meet.

Men’s 1500 Meters

Between Akers, Power, McEvoy, which of these Tulsa men will emerge with the fastest 1500 meter time at Payton Jordan?

Maura: Michael Power is my pick here. Now, yes, Power may only have a 3:51 personal best for 1500 meters, but it’s his recent 13:29 (5k) that catches my eye. The recent breakout star ran 4:01 in the mile during the indoor season, a time that clearly translates to well under 3:50 for the metric mile on Friday.

Power’s endurance is there and if he grinds from the beginning, there’s no saying that he can’t compete with established middle distance runners. His 5k personal best suggests that he can run 3:39 and if he's able to maintain momentum from that last race, then I don't see why he can't be the top name in this field.

Garrett: I have to agree with Maura, it's really hard to dislike Power in this race. His results are just as strong as some of his other teammates.

I truthfully don't think there is a good answer here. Beattie is a bit more established and his times of 3:59 (mile) and 13:32 (5k) are super encouraging. However, Power's 13:29 mark for 5000 meters is sincerely phenomenal.

If you look at his resume, it's clear that he's been maintaining postseason momentum since the indoor track season which is arguably more important than overall personal bests for this race.

I also see Power running somewhere in the 3:39 range, but Akers and McEvoy are plenty proven in their own right. I don't feel like there's one convincing choice amongst these three.

How fast does Nate Osterstock need to run to convince you that the 1500 meters / mile is his ideal event?

Maura: The Southern Utah Thunderbird may have run an altitude converted mile of 3:56 during the indoor season, but I’m more sold on him being a 5k runner. Osterstock will need to drop a 3:38 mark or faster this weekend to really convince me.

He has a modest 3:45 personal best at this distance (which was run at altitude), but nowadays, it's going to take a sub-3:40 result to be able to hang with the nation’s best. Yes, Osterstock has a few mile and 1500 meter altitude conversions that put him well under 4:00 or 3:40, but his altitude strength hasn't always converted to the necessary speed in postseason races.

Garrett: Maura took the words right out of my mouth. Osterstock is an excellent talent who doesn't get enough credit for how good he is. However, his 1500 meter and mile success in the postseason hasn't been ideal.

Osterstock has always struck me as more of a 5k runner and when you consider that he has run under 13:50 twice this season (en route to a 13:40 personal best), I'm inclined to say that he should pursue the event in the postseason.

So yes, I do think that the 5k is his ideal event.

However, much like Maura, I could potentially be convinced otherwise if he runs 3:38 or faster on Friday. This is a fantastic opportunity for Osterstock to show off his mile/1500 prowess while dropping down from altitude, but anything at 3:40 or above should prompt him to move up in distance a move from now, especially since he has more momentum in the 5k right now.

Which men could realistically emerge as the top collegiates in this field?

Maura: Finishing in this order for collegiates in the field -- Zach Stallings (Washington State), Casey Clinger (BYU), Michael Power (Tulsa), Nate Osterstock (Southern Utah) and Devin Pancake (Utah State).

Stallings is a 3:57 miler who has also run 3:39 for 1500 meters. He's super consistent and fairly reliable when it comes to producing top times. Casey Clinger actually ran a 3:36 mark for 1500 meters last spring (altitude converted and run in a full mile) and while he has run 3:38 before, I think he's more a long distance guy dropping down in distance.

Power is great as we already mentioned and Osterstock could have a major statement race. As for Devin Pancake, people may be overlooking him, but he ran 4:00 in the mile this past winter and ran an altitude converted mile of 3:59. He's due for a big performance.

Garrett: I actually think I like Clinger the most in this race. I'm a big Stallings fan and I think he'll probably run 3:38. However, Clinger is running a lot better right now than some people realize. His 5k and 10k marks have been incredible and I would argue that Clinger is having the best season of his career right now. We've already seen him have mile and 1500 meter success in the past, meaning that there is very little to dislike his potential in this race.

But if Clinger doesn't emerge as the top collegiate, then it will likely be Stallings who is simply for established in this event. His 3:57/3:39 personal bests are pretty solid.

I could also see Akers, Power and Osterstock potentially coming out with top collegiate honors, but they would need jaw-dropping monumental races for that to happen.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Zach Stallings (Washington State) -- 3:38

2. Casey Clinger (BYU) -- 3:39

3. Michael Power (Tulsa) -- 3:39

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Casey Clinger (BYU) -- 3:37

2. Zach Stallings (Washington State) -- 3:39

3. Michael Power (Tulsa) -- 3:39

Men’s 5000 Meters

Which underclassmen from Northern Arizona and Stanford are due for a breakout performance?*

NOTE: Robert DiDonato is no longer entered in the 5k and is instead entered in the 10k.

Maura: Robert DiDonato of Stanford, a true freshman, won his heat of the 5k at Bryan Clay a few weeks ago in a time of 13:50, a nine-second improvement.

DiDonato could benefit from a fast race with men who he can chase throughout all 12.5 laps. He’s gotten his feet wet, has picked up some great experience recently and will be racing on his home track.

With the time that he has already dropped -- 19 seconds in two weeks -- big things could continue for DiDonato who is adding to Stanford's young core.

Northern Arizona's Cael Grotenhuis is the underclassman who I’m keeping an eye on this weekend. In his first go-around in a collegiate 5k, Grotenhuis opened up with a 14:02 mark at Stanford.

Two weeks later, he knocked five seconds off that time at Bryan Clay. He might not be the winner of this race, or even crack the top seven, but a sub-13:50 could be in the works for him which would be huge for NAU's future.

Garrett: I'm the biggest Robert DiDonato fan. I sincerely think he's going to be the next man to join the Sprout/Robinson/Hicks contingent. If he turns into the NCAA standout that his high school results suggested that he could be, then the Cardinal will eventually win a national title in cross country.

DiDonato's 13:50 mark was huge and incredibly encouraging as it validated suspicions that he could one day be an elite talent. I think everything in terms of his personal best, youth-driven upside and recent progress suggests that he's going to run in the 13:40s.

As for Northern Arizona, I also like Grotenhuis quite a bit, but I think I'll instead go with Tristian Merchant. The Alaska native has fallen a bit under the radar, likely because his times on the track have been a bit quieter.

But I sincerely do believe that Merchant is due for a big performance. He was too talented in high school to not be a key piece for this NAU team in the future. Remember, he finished 18th at the Cowboy Jamboree this past fall, so the potential is clearly there.

A sub-14 result, in my mind, would be a major win for Merchant on Friday.

Which names could validate their recent success with a big-time result at Payton Jordan? Are there any names in this field who you see as All-American this year?

Maura: The Harvard duo of Graham Blanks and Acer Iverson have 13:27 and 13:32 personal bests, respectively, in the 5000 meters. Blanks hasn’t competed since the cross country national meet where he finished 23rd, but by racing alongside teammate Acer Iverson, he could be carried to a quick time.

As for Iverson, the Harvard runner has already run 3:49 (1500) and 28:24 (10k) this outdoor season. His 1500 time is modest, but his 10k time indicates that he's on the cusp of a big 5k performance.

Butler’s Barry Keane is always lurking in the shadows. He’s got a 13:25 (5k) mark on his resume and a recent runner-up 10k finish of 28:15 at the Raleigh Relays. Both performances show his strength in the longer events. If Keane can continue on this upwards trajectory, then he might be on his way to his first All-American honor.

Weber State’s Christian Allen and Tulsa’s Scott Beattie are in the same boat this weekend. Allen is strong in the 5k and 10k, having perosnal bests of 13:36 and 28:26, respectively, but he can’t seem to put everything together on the track by the time the NCAA Championships rolls around. He’s been an All-American in cross country, but is still searching for the same honor on the track.

Beattie just dropped a 28:19 (10k) at Stanford in the beginning of April, a 24-second PR. The Tulsa standout has a respectable 13:40 personal best for this distance, but that time could see a change this weekend if Beattie places himself well when moves are made.

Garrett: Alright, so here's the thing. I think Keane and Iverson could both realistically be All-Americans this year, specifically in the 10k. That seems like a reasonable take.

However, I don't think Keane would really need to validate his fitness with a big-time performance on Friday. We've seen him throw down countless elite-level regular season marks before. If he does that again, it honestly won't be a total shock.

It wouldn't necessarily be a shock for Iverson either, but this would be a huge stage for him to truly make a statement and assert himself as an All-American contender. His early success has led to a lot of "this guy is going to be a problem one day" speculation, but have we ever considered the idea that he's a problem right now?

Friday will likely affirm that suspicion.

Washington State's Colton Johnsen kind of falls into the same category as Keane. We already know how good he is, although postseason success he'll need to address.

I think men like Adams State's Awet Beraki, Iona's Ehab El-Sandali, BYU's Brandon Garnica and Stanford's Devin Hart all have outstanding opportunities to validate their talent at Payton Jordan in a field like this.

Beraki is a D2 standout who just ran a killer 10k time, so a quick 5k mark would really cement his status as a long distance favorite for All-American honors.

El-Sandali is a solid and reliable distance runner. He also just had a great indoor track season, but a big-time result here would validate a lot of the suspicions we had that he can be an All-American name.

Garnica is still one step away from truly being an All-American contender, but this will be a great opportunity for him to show that he can take down elite stars.

As for Devin Hart, he got unlucky this past winter after not qualifying for the national meet with his 7:51 (3k) mark which, in any other year, would qualify him for the postseason. I think he can be a really special talent, but this would be the stage for him to truly make his mark.

So to recap, Keane, Iverson, El-Sandali, Garnica, Beraki (D2), Johnsen and maybe Beattie are all realistic contenders for an All-American honor this season, either in the 5k or maybe elsewhere.

As for those could validate their talent on Friday, I would say Iverson, El-Sandali, Garnica, Beraki, Hart, Dario De Caro and Ahmed Muhumed.

I have no idea if that made any sense, but hey, I gave it my best shot.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Barry Keane (Butler) -- 13:22

2. Ahmed Muhumud (Florida State) -- 13:25

3. Acer Iverson (Harvard) -- 13:28

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Barry Keane (Butler) -- 13:22

2. Acer Iverson (Harvard) -- 13:27

3. Ehab El-Sandali (Iona) -- 13:29

Men’s 10,000 Meters

Stanford's Charles Hicks has a 10k personal best of 27:47. Teammates Ky Robinson and Cole Sprout have never run a collegiate 10k on the track. Which of these Stanford men will come out on top in this race?

Maura: Robinson has grit. The Stanford Cardinal has been trending in the right direction as of late, running times that give us reason to believe that his 10k debut will be something to watch.

Robinson ended his indoor track season with a 13:20 mark for 5000 meters a runner-up finish at the NCAA Indoor Championships. Then, he nearly matched that PR when he won the 5k at the Stanford Invitational in a time of 13:23.

Robinson rides the pace train and always finds that extra gear right when it matters most at the end of a race. Robinson is very similar to Hicks in my opinion and I anticipate a 27:35 performance out of Robinson with Hicks and Sprout close behind.

Garrett: I think Maura makes a good argument. Of this trio, Robinson has the most momentum right now and his times are incredible. I don't necessarily think that he's a similar runner when compared to Hicks, but I do think that they are of the same caliber.

The only thing is that the 10k is Hicks' best event while Robinson predominately flirts with the 5k and the steeplechase. That doesn't mean that he can't run fast in the 10k, but I think Hicks is simply better at the longer distance and I think people may be forgetting about how incredible he has been since the very end of the indoor track season.

I'll take Hicks, but I don't feel super confident saying that.

After running 13:09 (3k) on the indoor oval and owning a 10k personal best 27:48, what is your time prediction for Adriaan Wildschutt?

Maura: 27:38 is not off the table for Wildschutt. With the chance to race against the Stanford trio of Charles Hicks, Ky Robinson and Cole Sprout, it wouldn’t be surprising to see these four grind out the 10k from the very beginning.

Wildschutt didn’t have the greatest opener last week, relatively speaking, when he ran 13:39 to finish 9th at the Virginia Challenge. However, now that the cobwebs have been shaken off of his legs, I would expect a real barn burner.

Garrett: I think everything that Maura said is perfect. Wildschutt already has a relatively decent 5k rust-buster under his legs (by his standards), but this is someone who thrives in elite fields, fast paces and the longer distances. The Payton Jordan 10k might as well have been build for this Florida State superstar.

I do think a sub-27:40 result is possible, but after a modest opener, which can sometimes be misleading, I think it's more likely that Wildschutt ends up finishing in the low 27:50s which would still be an exceptional time.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Ky Robinson (Stanford) -- 27:35

2. Adriaan Wildschutt (Florida State) -- 27:38

3. Charles Hicks (Stanford) -- 27:39

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Charles Hicks (Stanford) -- 27:49

2. Ky Robinson (Stanford) -- 27:51

3. Adriaan Wildschutt (Florida State) -- 27:54

Men’s 3k Steeplechase

Between Clement Duigou, Levi Taylor, Estanis Ruiz and Adam Bunker, which recent breakout steeple star has the best chance of validating their recent success?

Maura: Levi Taylor of Montana State was a surprising 2nd place at the Mt. SAC Relays two weeks ago in the steeplechase. Taylor chopped 17 seconds off of his PR en route to an excellent 8:38 finishing time. This performance came the same weekend that Taylor ran 3:44 in the 1500 meters, another solid PR.

Taylor is in contention for a top-five finish this weekend if he sticks onto the leaders and lets them carry him to the finish. If he can ride the momentum of his recent success into this meet, then he'll be a much better name than some people realize.

Garrett: I think it's gotta be Adams State's Clement Duigou. He has been fantastic since the tail-end of the indoor track season and has really shattered expectations every time he has toed the line. There's enough on his resume to validate his 8:36 mark and it helps that he had promising steeplechase experience before this season.

On paper, he's due for a big performance or at the very least, another sub-8:40 proving that he's really as good as his recent surge suggests.

Who is the one name in this field who no one is talking about, but should be?

Maura: Zach Litoff of Santa Clara seems to fall through the cracks occasionally. The senior began this season with an 8:42 steeplechase PR, and with only one steeplechase contested so far this season at the Stanford Invitational, Litoff has already dropped significant time.

The Santa Clara standout has run two other personal bests this season already, one in the 1500 meters and one in the 5k -- 3:47 and 13:53, respectively. He’s been building on solid performances, gaining more experience and shouldn’t be counted out on Friday.

Garrett: I'll say Adam Bunker. The Utah Valley runner is from a lesser known school, so it's understandable why he may be flying under people's radars. However, this is someone who has run 8:49 and 8:44 in the steeplechase this year...and those are the only two steeplechase races of his career!

The fact that Bunker has produced two sub-8:50 steeple marks in his first two races ever contesting a certain event is impressive. In a field as loaded as this, he could make a major splash and truly breakout in a significant way.

If you were doing a fantasy draft, which of these collegiate steeplechasers would you pick first?

Maura: Duncan Hamilton of Montana State has really taken off since finishing 5th last spring in the steeplechase at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in a personal best time of 8:31. Since then, the Bobcat ace has consistently been a name near the top of the results in most nationally competitive fields.

His recent 3:39/13:30 weekend double at Bryan Clay only shows that he is in a better starting place than before. That clear display of athletic dominance should be reflected when he is contesting his second steeplechase of the season at Payton Jordan.

In terms of steeple success, range and recent improvements, he has it all.

Garrett: Duncan Hamilton is an excellent choice, but I would probably go with Colton Johnsen. He's just as experienced as Hamilton and arguably more versatile. Johnsen has run 3:55 (mile), 7:45 (3k), 13:34 (5k) and 8:32 (3k steeple), giving him all-star-caliber marks in a variety of distance events. He hasn't been great on the national stage, but he's an all-around ace who, in theory, may have the capability of running sub-8:30 in the steeple given his onslaught high-level personal bests.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State) -- 8:37

2. Zach Litoff (Santa Clara) -- 8:40

3. Ahmed Jaziri (Eastern Kentucky) -- 8:41

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Ahmed Jaziri (Eastern Kentucky) -- 8:30

2. Duncan Hamilton (Montana State) -- 8:31

3. Colton Johnsen (Washington State) -- 8:34

Women’s 1500 Meters

After running 15:28 for 5000 meters earlier this month, how fast will Roisin Flanagan run when she drops down in distance to the 1500 meters?

Maura: A 4:10 mark for 1500 meters isn’t out of the picture for Flanagan. This time would be a five-second improvement off of her current PR, but the Adams State senior has shown that she is capable of this.

Flanagan is an experienced athlete and even though she competes in Division Two, at the end of the season, her times across the board put her in contention to win any event she toes the line for.

Garrett: I could get behind Flanagan running 4:10 for 1500 meters, but that would probably be on the faster end of my expectations. Her 15:28 mark for 5000 meters was elite and it also came recently, meaning that Flanagan is currently at the peak of her powers and is due for a new PR (I think).

Flanagan is historically a long distance ace, and while she has fared well in the 1500 meters, I don't think her caliber of performances in the 5k always translate over the the metric mile. For that reason, I'll say she runs 4:13...which is still very fast.

Is there a clear-cut favorite amongst the collegiates in this field? If so, who?

Maura: Julia Heymach of Stanford is an experienced athlete who has been on fire since finishing 6th place in the 5000 meters at the 2021 outdoor national meet.

Fast forward to the indoor track season and Heymach dropped an impressive 4:31 mile time. Although she made some tactical missteps at the NCAA Indoor Championships, she’s still one of the best in the game, both tactically and all-out aerobically.

Heymach will be making her season debut in an event that she has run 4:09 in. Her resume as of late speaks for itself and even if she doesn’t run sub-4:10, her dominant mix of speed and endurance catapults her to the front in our predictions.

Garrett: It's very clearly Heymach unless Christina Aragon has one of the best races of her career which isn't totally off the table, I suppose. I'm surprised Flanagan, Ramsden and Juul are in separate heats, but I don't know if that would've changed my answer all that much.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Julia Heymach (Stanford) -- 4:10

2. Roisin Flanagan (Adams State) -- 4:10

3. Christina Aragon (Stanford) -- 4:13

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Julia Heymach (Stanford) -- 4:11

2. Roisin Flanagan (Adams State) -- 4:13

3. Christina Aragon (Stanford) -- 4:14

Women’s 5000 Meters

Which collegiate has the most to gain with a good performance in this race?

Maura: Allie Schadler of Washington stands out for me. I was expecting more from Schadler during the indoor season, but her performances were just never head-turning (although not bad, either). She definitely has the talent to compete for the win this weekend in the 5k amongst collegiates -- just look at her 15:33 for evidence.

The Washington Husky began her season with a 4:20 mark for 1500 meters at the WSU-UW Dual, a time that is well off of her 4:14 personal best. To be in the conversation for qualifying out of the regional meet, Schadler will need a big performance to show us that she is still one of the nation’s best.

Garrett: Honestly, you could argue in favor of a lot of athletes in this field. Jessica Lawson hasn't been the same since the winter of 2021, Schadler seemed to be missing an edge this past winter and Adva Cohen has a history of running elite times while also working through some inconsistency.

Like Maura, I also see this being a big race for Schadler. She still had a respectable and strong indoor track season, but she clearly wasn't at her best. Luckily, Schadler has still displayed enough fitness to keep up interested. It's what she does with this lingering fitness that will really determine what we think she can do in the postseason come May and June.

From that perspective, this one race probably means the most compared to every other collegiate in this field.

Which of these entrants were better suited for the 10k rather than this 5k race?

Maura: Ruby Smee of San Francisco has a 5k PR of 15:36 and even though she has only run 16:01 this outdoor season, that time should safely qualify Smee for the regional meet. With that in mind, she should’ve jumped up in distance this weekend.

Smee has run 33:07 for 10k on the roads in 2021. A time like that would shoot the San Francisco Don up the leaderboard, especially given her perceived improvements following a very successful indoor track season.

Garrett: This answer is 100% Washington's Haley Herberg. The Husky veteran has built her reputation in the longer distances, emerging as an aggressive front-runner during cross country and favoring the longer distances on the track.

She qualified for the NCAA Indoor Championships in the 5k this past winter and also qualified for the NCAA Outdoor Championships in the 10k and 5k last spring. She owns an excellent 32:35 personal best in the 10k and has also dipped under 32 minutes in the 10k once before.

Herberg already contested the 10k once this year at the Raleigh Relays, but it didn't go so well. In a meet known for it's high-octane 10k races, it made sense for Herberg to go up to her ideal distance rather than stay in the 5k on Friday.

Is it safe to say that Lauren Ryan is the collegiate favorite in this race? If so, then who is her biggest threat? If not, then who is the collegiate favorite?

Maura: New Mexico’s Amelia Mazza-Downie is one step ahead of Ryan. Although Ryan has the faster PR -- 15:27 to Mazza-Donnie’s 15:37 -- the New Mexico Lobo has one race under her belt this season, an impressive 32:55 (10k) mark, and has more experience in the longer distances.

Ryan hasn’t competed since the World Indoor Championships, so it is a little harder to determine where she is compared to the field. I’m not saying that Ryan will be out of the race -- she does have ridiculous speed with a 4:12 mark for 1500 meters -- but I see her finishing just an arms length behind Mazza-Downie.

Garrett: I am becoming an increasingly bigger fan of Mazza-Downie. Her momentum is better than most women right now and she does have more long distance experience than Ryan.

Even so, Ryan is just too darn good. Ryan has the faster personal best and fared well at the indoor national meet in the 3000 meters -- an event that she owns an 8:47 personal best in. Ryan has thrived in highly accomplished fields such as this before and for the most part, she does well in these large-scale invitationals.

Mazza-Downie is still a year behind Lauren Ryan and for that reason, I'll say the Florida State is still the collegiate favorite in this field...but Mazza-Downie is her biggest threat.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico) -- 15:32

2. Lauren Ryan (Florida State) -- 15:33

3. Ruby Smee (San Francisco) -- 15:36

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Lauren Ryan (Florida State) -- 15:20

2. Amelia Mazza-Downie (New Mexico) -- 15:26

3. Haley Herberg (Washington) -- 15:33

Women’s 10,000 Meters

Who has the best chance of being the top collegiate in this race: Someone from Utah Valley? Or Camila Noe?

Maura: Utah Valley has entered four women in the 10k this weekend: Hannah Branch, Everlyn Kemboi, Caila Odekirk and Maggie Zwahlen. The three UVU women to watch are as follows: Kemboi with her 33:12 mark, Branch with her 33:17 mark and Odekirk with her 34:03 mark.

Kemboi and Odekirk’s times were both achieved in event debuts while Branch has continued to improve in the event over the course of her career.

Of those Utah Valley leaders, Kemboi is the favorite over Montana State’s Camila Noe.

Noe may have the faster 5k time -- a 15:52 mark compared to Kemboi’s 16:04 PR -- but the tables are turned in the 10k as Noe has only run 35:01, a surprising factoid given her past cross country success.

I like the strength in numbers for Utah Valley heading into Payton Jordan.

Garrett: I agree with Maura, so I'll try not to repeat what she said. The numbers simply favor Utah Valley. I do think Noe is much, much better than some people realize and I also think that her 10k personal best is very misleading. Her cross country accolades suggests that she can post a faster time.

But for the most part, this collective group of Utah Valley women have substantial progression, experience, upside, depth and nationally competitive marks. What's not to like?

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Everyln Kemboi (Utah Valley) -- 33:01

2. Hannah Branch (Utah Valley) -- 33:15

3. Camila Noe (Montana State) -- 33:29

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Everyln Kemboi (Utah Valley) -- 32:59

2. Camila Noe (Montana State) -- 33:07

3. Hannah Branch (Utah Valley) -- 33:20

Women’s 3k Steeplechase

How fast will recent steeple standout Elise Thorner run in her Payton Jordan debut?

Maura: Thorner came out guns blazing when she ran 9:40 for the win at Bryan Clay. The 12-second improvement was remarkable for someone who had only run two steeplechase races prior to this weekend.

This is going to be a fairly strong field, although collegiately, Thorner is clearly the top dog. This field will bring her to a fast time and given New Mexico's history of success in this event, I could realistically see her running sub-9:35. Given her recent momentum and proven fitness in other events, I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility.

Garrett: A 9:34 mark would be a big deal for Thorner. She already made a huge improvement this season and while I do see her chopping off a few seconds from her PR, I doubt another 5+ second jump is coming. I think a 9:38 or 9:39 is within reach for her, but I don't know if I would go much lower than that.

Maura's Final Predictions:

1. Elise Thorner (New Mexico) -- 9:34

2. Haley Tanne (Southern Utah) -- 10:13

3. Jenna McCaffrey (Northern Arizona) -- 10:19

Garrett's Final Predictions:

1. Elise Thorner (New Mexico) 9:39

2. Haley Tanne (Southern Utah) 10:07

3. Jenna McCaffrey (Northern Arizona) -- 10:12