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2022 Penn Relays Preview: Favorites, Sleepers & Wild Cards
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Apr 27, 2022
- 25 min read
Updated: Apr 27, 2022
The Penn Relays are one of the most historic track and field meets in the United States -- even the entire world. The Philadelphia-based Franklin Field annually acts as the mid-season checkpoint for some of the most elite high school, college and professional athletes in the country, with a few overseas talents also making the trek to the city known for it's cheesesteaks (go to Jim's on South Street).
There are a TON of collegiate entries this weekend at the Penn Relays, including relays, making this preview especially long. Because of that, I'm going to offer a unique twist to this article. While I could certainly type out every event, I thought it may be better to segment a few of these fields into who the favorites are, who the sleeper picks could be and who the wild cards are.
A favorite is someone who is expected to win the race, or at least place very highly.
A sleeper pick is someone who is maybe not initially favored for the win or a top finish, but is better than some people realize or could surprise with a good performance.
A wild card is someone who we're not entirely sure what to think of. They could finish anywhere in the results, leaving us uncertain as to what we should expect from them this week/weekend.
So with that, let's get started...
Men's 1500 Meters
Favorite(s)
Admittedly, there isn't anyone who is the overwhelming clear-cut favorite in this field. There isn't one guy who you can point to and say "Oh, this guy will win and it's fairly obvious."
However, if you forced me to pick a few names, I would probably say that Providence's AJ Ernst is in the discussion to win this race. He's incredibly experienced, being one of the older guys in this field and he's probably the most consistent miler in this field as well.
The former Virginia runner, who is now a graduate transfer at Providence, has run 3:39 for 1500 meters and has run 3:59 in the mile as well. He's steady and consistent and is probably the least likely to have a poor race.
Stony Brooks' Robert Becker is also a good option. He ran 3:58 in the mile this past winter and is building recent momentum with personal best marks of 3:42 (1500) and 1:52 (800). Those aren't Earth-shattering marks, but they do signal that Becker is near his all-time best fitness.
I also really like Brendan Hebert in this race. Yes, there are a few names who have better recent performances or are arguably better milers than Hebert, but let's not forget that this Texas ace has run 3:59 in the mile and 1:49 for 800 meters.
Hebert has all of the tools to be successful and his speed is amongst the best in the country. He's plateaued a bit in the 800 meters this spring, so I think a move up to the 1500 meters will benefit him.
Sleeper(s)
It's hard to put a 3:59 miler in the sleeper section, but I think it's appropriate. Liam Murphy was one of Villanova's multiple sub-four milers this past winter and he's delivering on the exciting potential that we saw from him in high school.
Despite that, Murphy is still very young and that's reflected in his most recent performance. The Wildcat youngster faltered to 6th place in the mile at the BIG East Indoor Championships this past winter and recently ran 3:46 for 1500 meters at the Larry Ellis Invitational, placing 20th overall.
With Murphy is at his best, he can be really dangerous. That's why he's in this sleeper group. Still, his youth and recent performances remove him from that "Favorites" category for now.
Tennessee's Tim Thacker (4:01 mile, 3:43 for 1500 meters), Boston University's Foster Malleck (3:42 for 1500 meters) and NC State's Brett Gardner (3:43 for 1500 meters) all have promising performances on their resume which suggest that they can be factors in this race.
One of these men is due for a breakout result, but who will that be? Malleck is progressing nicely and Thacker is piecing together a handful of sold mile/1500 marks. One of those two men could run something very fast if the pace is right.
Wild Card(s)
I'm a big fan of Pittsburgh's Evan Addison, but he does have a history of inconsistency, specifically in the mile. If you look at his resume, he's either very on or very off, but that inconsistency rarely drifts far from the mile distance.
There's more to like about Addison now than ever before. He recently ran an 8:44 steeplechase PR and has run back-to-back 3:47 marks for 1500 meters. That may not seem super quick, but based on his personal bests, past mile performances and recent steeplechase success, he's due for a massive breakout in this race.
The only question is...will we see that breakout race happen this weekend?
I also have zero clue what to think about Tennessee's Conner Hawkins. This is a guy who has run 3:44 for 1500 meters before, so we know he's super talented! However, in his four 1500 meter attempts so far this spring, he's hasn't been great.
This season, Hawkins has run 4:05, 3:54, 4:03 and 3:59 all for 1500 meters.
I am a firm believer that talent doesn't just disappear and when you look at his indoor track season, it's not like he was horrible.
Hawkins can be a factor in this race if he's at his best, but there's no guarantee that we'll see that version of him at Franklin Field. For now, he slots in as a "Wild Card" in this race.
Final Predictions:
AJ Ernset (Providence) -- 3:42
Brenden Hebert (Texas) -- 3:43
Tim Thacker (Tennessee) -- 3:43
Women's 1500 Meters
Favorite(s)
This field is going to be fantastic as numerous top-level talents will toe the line next to each other in Philadelphia for a 1500 meter race that could become much faster than some people realize.
Much like the men, I'm not totally under the belief that there is one marquee name who is head and shoulders above the rest of this field. There are, however, numerous women who I could realistically see winning this race.
How many women?
I think there are four realistic challengers for the win in this race, maybe even more depending on how much you weigh past performances
In no particular order, I'll say that my group of four potential winners could be Isabel Van Camp (Arkansas), Kate Hunter (BYU), Sarah Hendrick (Kennesaw State) and Valery Tobias (Texas).
And truthfully, that number could double if you argued hard enough for certain names. However, I think we'll save those women for the "Sleeper" section.
Van Camp is super experienced, consistent and can do a little bit of everything. She's coming off of some really encouraging performances both on the indoor oval and the outdoor oval. Momentum is very clearly in her favor and on paper, this field isn't so top-heavy that Van Camp will be overwhelmed with her recent 4:16 personal best.
If I had to choose, I would say that she's the overall favorite, but in a field as deep as this, I'm not entirely confident about that selection, either.
I really like BYU's Kate Hunter in this race. She's more of a mile/1500 meter specialist than Tobias or Hendrick is and her recent success at this distance (or equivalent distance) is super encouraging.
Hunter is someone who has already run 4:15 for 1500 meters this season and she recently built up her consistency with a 4:18 mark the other week. The BYU veteran owns a 1500 meter personal best of 4:13 which she ran at the tail-end of last spring and was able to dip back under the 4:40 barrier this winter with a 4:39 mark.
She may not be a lock to win, but Hunter is probably the safest pick in this field. It's unlikely that she run poorly.
Other women like Valery Tobias and Sarah Hendrick have been phenomenal 800 meter talents and in theory, should be able to translate their middle distance prowess to the metric mile.
Tobias just ran 4:17 for 1500 meters the other week while Hendrick already opened up her season with a 4:18 mark for the same distance...and then ran 4:15 as part of a weekend double at Georgia Tech (where she also ran 2:03 for 800 meters).
Hendrick is probably the safer option of these two 800 meter specialists, mainly because of her proven "grind-it-out" racing style which exhibits a lot of strength. If you don't believe me, just take a look at her recent 2:00.98 mark for 800 meters which she completely soloed.
Sleeper(s)
For years, I have been on the Nevada Mareno bandwagon. The NC State ace has had a few up-and-downs throughout her career, but I will continue to maintain that when she's at 100%, she's one of the most underrated distance runners on the east coast.
Mareno recently ran 4:15 for 1500 meters which is very encouraging, especially since a time like that could theoretically win this race.
Truthfully, I want to see her build a bit more consistency this season before I say that she is or isn't going to be beat certain women, but it wouldn't be unrealistic for her to contend for the win in this field.
BYU's Heather Hanson may also be due for a big race. She's run 4:36 in the mile before and just ran an encouraging new PR of 4:18 in the 1500 meters.
Admittedly, Hanson's indoor track season wasn't anything like her 2021 indoor track season which is ultimately why she sits in the "Sleeper" section. Still, her recent personal best at this distance is encouraging and knowing how good she has been in the past should make her a factor in this race.
Wild Card(s)
Arkansas' Kennedy Thomson is an interesting name. It feels like we're forgetting how good she is after a relatively quieter indoor track season. The Razorback ace holds a 4:33 mile PR and has also run 4:12 for 1500 meters.
When she's at her best, she's extremely challenging to take down.
The 2021 indoor mile bronze medalist has proven that she could be favored in this field, but she hasn't quite matched her fitness from last year.
This past winter, she ran no faster than 4:46 in the mile. So far this spring, she has not broken 4:20 for 1500 meters or 2:10 for 800 meters. That's admittedly surprising to see for someone who was once so dominant in 2021.
Even so, we can't rule her out. If she's at 100%, then Thomson is the overwhelming favorite in this field. And honestly, even if she's at 90% fitness, she may still have a shot to win.
The only question, however, is if that rebound performance will come this weekend or later in the future...
And how about Ella Baran? The D3 superstar from Johns Hopkins hasn't been inconsistent, but trying to know what we should expect from her in this field is a challenge. She just ran an all-time 5k mark of 15:49 earlier this month, so how will that translate to the 1500 meters? How will Baran fare against top-tier D1 competition?
It's unlikely that Baran runs poorly, but what is her ceiling in this field?
Other names like Marlee Starliper (NC State) and Camren Alder (BYU) are proven talents -- Alder a bit more than Starliper who is coming back from an extensive injury -- but their youth makes them question marks in this race.
Also, is anyone else surprised to see UConn's Mia Nahom in the second section despite owning a 4:36 mile PR from this past winter? I have the same question about Boston University's Andrea Claeson who has run 4:39 (mile) and 4:18 (1500) before.
Those two women are "wild card" picks because if they both have their best races and the first heat turns out to be slower than expected, than Nahom or Claeson could win this race from section two.
Final Predictions:
Isabel Van Camp (Arkansas) -- 4:15
Kate Hunter (BYU) -- 4:16
Nevada Mareno (NC State) -- 4:16
Men's 5000 Meters
Favorite(s)
This one is pretty easy (I think). Texas' Yaseen Abdalla should win this race and when looking at this field, I think most people would agree with me. This is the guy who ran 7:46 (3k converted) this past winter and also beat Wesley Kiptoo in the 5k at the BIG 12 Indoor Championships with a time of 13:33.
With a recent 28:33 (10k) mark on his resume, momentum is very clearly on Abdalla's side. He's on fire right now and his value is probably the highest of anyone in this field...right?
While Abdalla may be the fairly clear favorite, I could very easily see Georgetown's Matt Young getting the win here. This Hoya standout is a true long distance star, running 13:39 for 5000 meters and back in late March, running 28:54 for 10,000 meters.
Young is a very consistent distance talent. He's probably the least likely to have a poor race this weekend. He thrives in fast settings and simply has a lot to like about him.
Young doesn't have the same versatility or momentum that Abdalla has, but Young is debatably more of a pure 5k runner than Abdalla is and he's also more experienced.
So this now begs the question...who comes out on top?
Sleeper(s)
I am a big fan of the Wisconsin men right now. I really like their youngsters and I think a lot of people are overlooking Olin Hacker in terms of his national contender status right now...but he's not in this race.
One of the other overlooked Wisconsin names is Rowan Ellenberg who fits into the "Darn, he's one of the last guys I wanted to race this weekend." category. This Wisconsin ace has proven himself in cross country (admittedly, some instances being better than others) and is fresh off of a 13:46 personal best for 5000 meters.
Ellenberg also holds a decent 1500 meter speed of 3:44 and that could play a role if this race gets off pace a but.
I do think that this Wisconsin talent could contend with the leaders, but he'll truthfully need the best race of his career for that to happen. Still, everything on his resume suggests that that is a possibility.
Brandon Olden (Siena), Derek Holmes (UMass Lowell), Ezra Mutai (American International) and David Vorbach (Columbia) are all names who, with a big personal best, could surprise a lot of people in this race. They have proven 5k marks that would make them somewhat competitive against most regional qualifiers.
However, the one name who needs to be mentioned is Alex Phillip. The John Carroll superstar, who is already an all-time name in the D3 ranks, could realistically threaten Abdalla and Young for the win if he has a monster race.
After running a huge statement 10k time of 28:48, it's clear that Phillip is at the peak of his powers. If he's able to translate that 10k fitness to the 5k, then I think we have to question how much he can improve upon his current 13:58 personal best.
A PR is absolutely due for Phillip, but by how much? If he cracks the 13:40 barrier, which is seems very doable in an optimal field such as this, then he may be able to contend for the win.
Wild Card(s)
Is there truly a wild card in this race? Honestly, I'm not sure that there is.
I think you could make the argument that the "wild cards" are going to be the youngsters (sophomores and freshmen) from Princeton, North Carolina and Georgetown. Someone is due for a huge breakout race that really cements their status as a nationally competitive name in the East region.
The problem is that I have no idea who that will be. Most of these young guys were superstar high schoolers and on paper, all have inherently great talent.
I think I would say that Georgetown's Lucas Guerra is a wild card in this race. He's more of a miler and didn't have a great result at the Raleigh Relays in this event earlier this season. However, i'm a big fan of his and I think he's due for something special.
Also, American International's Callum Elson, the D2 indoor mile champion from this past winter, is also toeing the line for this race. He's run no faster than 14:11 for the distance, but given his versatility and the fact that he's run 3:59 in the mile, it seems fair to suggest that he could surprise a few people with a major performance.
Final Predictions:
Yaseen Abdalla (Texas) -- 13:35
Matt Young (Georgetown) --13:38
Alex Phillip (John Carroll) -- 13:43
Women's 5000 Meters
Favorite(s)
I cannot wait for this race. We're going to see a handful of NCAA standouts duke it out in what should be a thrilling battle.
In terms of favorites, I think there are three women who could realistically win this race. In my mind, one of the heaviest favorites is Georgia Tech's Nicole Fegans. She's an established veteran and fairly consistent, often producing some of the NCAA's faster times.
She owns personal bests of 4:16 (1500), 4:36 (mile), 9:01 (3k), 15:37 (5k) and 32:45 (10k). Fegans has an incredible well-rounded resume and has all of the necessary tool to take home the win in this race.
Her season so far has also been excellent, running her aforementioned 1500 meter PR of 4:16 and winning the Raleigh Relays 10k with a 33:00 mark.
However, Auburn's Joyce Kimeli is arguably just as much of a favorite as Fegans is. The Tiger ace may not have qualified for the indoor national meet this past winter, but this is still someone who ran 15:43, 15:43 and the 15:53 for 5000 meters this past winter.
After running under 4:20 for 1500 meters multiple times and posting a strong 9:41 steeplechase mark, momentum is very clearly on Kimeli's side. She is putting some of the better performances of her collegiate career and she's building some really impressive consistency.
If Kimeli doesn't win, it won't be because she had a poor race. It will likely be because someone else just had an incredible performance.
The final contender who could I see winning is Tennessee's Sydney Seymour who is on the transfer portal as a graduate transfer right now. This Volunteer star has been on fire this year, posting outstanding cross country finishes, running multiple 5k times in the 15:40s and improving her overall range.
One could argue that Seymour has the most momentum of anyone in this field. That could lead to her producing a sub-15:40 result, something that may be necessary if she wants to take home this win.
As big of an ask as that may be, it also sounds realistic.
Sleeper(s)
I'll admit, I don't really see a ton of sleeper picks in this field. I this this field is pretty clear-cut. The three women who I mentioned above should be able to take the top-three spots in this and that is hardly a hot take...depending on what you think about my "wild card" name.
However, Providence's Lily Tuck and NC State's Mariah Howell could be two names to keep an eye on this weekend. Tuck has been SUPER consistent this year, running between 9:26 and 9:27 for 3000 meters three separate times during both this winter and spring.
Tuck also earned a seven-second PR from 16:09 to 16:02 earlier this season, so it's clear that she's near (or at) the peak of her fitness right now. That, in turn, could produce a new personal best this weekend.
It's a similar story for Howlett who is on fire right now.
The NC State veteran has run back-to-back personal bests, one in the 1500 meters (4:24) and one in the 5000 meters (16:06). When you consider how incredible NC State has been at developing many of their runners, it may be safe to say that Howlett is going to be a legitimate factor in this race.
Wild Card(s)
I think NC State's Dominique Clairmonte is a good option to have in this section. On paper, she's one of the more talented distance talents in this field. She has run 4:18 (1500), 4:38 (mile), 9:19 (3k), 15:47 (5k) and 32:50 (10k), giving her all of the necessary tools to be a major name in this field.
However, Clairmonte has had a few inconsistencies throughout her career, most of which weren't necessarily her fault (such as recovering from mono right before the NCAA Winter XC Championships).
And if you look at Clairmonte's current resume, you'll see that she recorded two DNF results at Boston University back in December and then recorded three DNF results at the Raleigh Relays before running 4:22 for 1500 meters in her first true collegiate race in roughly five months.
Those DNF results were likely pacing duties, but for the most part, we really don't have a good idea of what we should expect from her in this race. Is she near her top fitness? How heavily should we look at her recent 1500 meter race? Will she even toe the line this weekend?
I think Clairmonte is an incredibly talented name, but I'm not sure I ever really hd a good gauge of her fitness.
Final Predictions:
Sydney Seymour (Tennessee) -- 15:39
Joyce Kimeli (Auburn) -- 15:41
Nicole Fegans (Georgia Tech) -- 15:42
Men's 10,000 Meters
Favorite(s)
Admittedly, this field isn't super loaded, but I do feel extremely confident in saying that Georgetown's Andrew Jordan will win this race. Barring an unknown injury that he's recovering from that I don't know about, this Hoya veteran should win this race fairly comfortably.
Jordan ran 13:28 for 5000 meters this past winter, indicating that he's due for a much bigger personal best than his current 10k mark of 28:43. Truthfully, this is a guy who should be running under 28:00 this season.
The problem with that, however, is that this field is likely not going to push Jordan to a time as fast as that. I could certainly see him running in the 28:20s or the 28:30s, but when looking at the performance list, it's hard to know who would really push Jordan to that next level (unless teammates Owen Ritz and Jack Van Scoter are pacing him).
Sleeper(s)
On the off chance that Jordan isn't at 100%, I could see teammate Jack Van Scoter sneaking into the mix and potentially coming away with the win. That would potentially require a new PR, but Van Scoter's current personal best sits at 28:53 which he just ran at the Virginia Challenge.
The fact that Van Scoter just ran that 10k PR last week tells me that he's going to be pacing Jordan in this race. It just makes sense. It would be really challenging for Jordan to run a super competitive time all by himself. It would also be asking a lot for Van Scoter to run two competitive 10k races less than a week apart.
So unless Van Scoter really goes all-in for this race, I don't know if there is a true sleeper pick in this field...
Wild Card(s)
I'll be honest, I'm not super familiar with some of these names. For the ones I did look up, I didn't see many standout distance talents who could really make a crazy difference.
Villanova's Ryan Cutter, the former U. Chicago talent and D3 ace, probably fits this "wild card" theory the best in this field. He was fairly consistent during cross country, but on the track, his times have been a little all over the place.
This spring, in the 5000 meters, Cutter has run 14:48, 14:02 and 14:20.
I have no idea which version of Cutter we'll see in this 10k field, but I'll be curious to see how he does.
Final Predictions:
Andrew Jordan (Georgetown) -- 28:28
Jack Van Scoter (Georgetown)* -- 29:02
Owen Ritz (Georgetown) -- 29:03
Women's 10,000 Meters
Favorite(s)
This women's 10k field, on paper, looks incredibly entertaining.
If you look at the entries, you may notice a familiar name. It's Rice superstar Grace Forbes! After a phenomenal cross country season (which ended with Forbes just five spots out from All-American honors), the Rice Owl did not race during the indoor track season.
But now, she has finally returned.
Forbes is one of the most dynamic and talented distance runners in the NCAA. She's been exceptional ever since the winter of 2020 and has ultimately put together personal bests of 4:14 (1500), 8:56 (3k), 15:50 (5k) and 32:24 (10k).
That 10k personal best should make her a fairly clear favorite in this race. However, after such a long hiatus and a fairly unexciting season opener, running 4:22 for 1500 meters, it's hard to know what we should really expect from Forbes.
That uncertainty would maybe push her towards the "sleeper" section, but it's hard to be considered a sleeper when you're as accomplished as Forbes is.
Sleeper(s)
If Forbes isn't at the top of her game, then I could see two people taking her down. Those women would be Providence's Laura Mooney and Texas' Monica Hebner. Both of these women are proven longer distance runners and have past results that favor them for a potential upset bid.
Mooney just ran 16:09 for 5000 meters, an eyebrow-raising PR that forces us to ponder, "If she can do that, then what can she do in the 10k?" And that's a good question to ask. Mooney is arguably at her best in the longer distances, running her fastest cross country 6k at the NCAA XC Championships this past fall where she finished 60th overall.
Not only that, but Mooney has earned a new PR in three of her last five races if you include cross country. In fact, that number is actually four since her 16:19 effort earlier this season was, at the time, a new PR.
To put it simply, Mooney is far more dangerous than some people may realize.
As for Hebner, she looks comfortable at Texas. After going from the Duke Blue Devils, to the UCLA Bruins to now the Longhorns, this long distance specialist seems to have found the perfect spot for her.
Let's remember that Hebner ran 33:52 for 10,000 meters during her time at Duke. She qualified for the outdoor national meet in the 10k with that personal best.
Hebner has yet to replicate that success from a few years ago, but we do know that she's exceptionally talented when she's at her best. I don't think her recent 10k efforts are representative of how good she actually is and I think she will prove that in Philadelphia later this week.
Wild Card(s)
There are two women who could be wild cards in this race. One of them is Miami (OH)'s Ava Nuttall who has a bit of a perplexing resume. The distance specialist has run every single one of her personal bests in her last four races...which is a bit misleading.
You see, Nuttall ran 2:35 (800) and 4:52 (1500) earlier this season which seems to be an intentional effort to run slow. Why do I think that? Well, that's because she also has run promising personal bests of 16:29 (5k) and 33:38 (10k).
Regardless of those middle distance performances, it seems fair to say that Nuttall's recent 10k PR is substantial. Sure, her 5k personal best is respectable, but that 10k PR is far better than anything that she has on her resume.
So...what version of Nuttall will we see this week?
I also think that Penn State's Alison Willingmyre fits into this category. People forget how good she was during the fall of 2019 which is why I think she could be a factor in this race. The only issue, however, is that she has never raced a 10k before which is admittedly a bit surprising.
Even so, if she can channel her 2019 fitness and prove that she works best in the longer distances, then Willingmyre could end up surprising a lot of people.
Final Predictions:
Grace Forbes (Rice) -- 33:21
Laura Mooney (Providence) -- 33:40
Alison Willingmyre (Penn State) -- 33:47
Men's 3000 Meter Steeplechase
Favorite(s)
A big part of me really wanted to say that there wasn't a favorite in this field. I'm not sure that there are any names who really jump off the page as undeniable contenders for the win.
However, I then thought, "Ok, if I was forced to choose, who would I pick for the win?"
And that question ultimately led me to picking Tennessee's Alex Crigger. The Volunteer veteran has run 8:47 in this event and is super experienced. This is also a fairly manageable field for him, meaning that I don't think he's going to be overwhelmed by the talent he's facing.
I would admittedly still put Crigger in the same tier as the men below when it comes to general win probability, but if you need a favorite, then he should be your pick.
If I'm giving one more, than Stony Brook's Carlos Santos deserves recognition. He recently ran a huge personal best of 8:48 in the steeplechase the other week, meaning that there are two ways of looking at this.
We can either a) be a little cautious and ask Santos to produce a similar performance before we set any grand expectations on his shoulders, or b) we can say that he's beginning to gain momentum and expect him to build upon his old result en route to a new PR at Franklin Field.
If we go with the latter mentality, then Santos likely wins this race.
Sleeper(s)
Wow, this is a tough field to figure out. There are a lot of different names who could have a substantial impact in this field, but some of them also lack experience in this event.
I think one of the names who fits this section nicely is Arkansas' Andrew Kibet. We've grown to love his versatility and high-impact times in a variety of events. He's a sub-four miler with 7:55 (3k) endurance who has also run 8:50 in the 3k steeplechase.
For the most part, Kibet offers good value in this race. He seems like a safe bet to run well and his range allows him to theoretically play a strong role in numerous race scenarios.
You could also argue the same thing about his teammate, Emmanuel Cheboson. He's run 13:41 (5k) and 28:38 (10k), emerging as one of the better true long distance runners in the NCAA.
His steeple effort, however, sits at 8:55, leaving me a bit unsure if his best performances will translate to the steeplechase this weekend.
I think Pitt's Jack Miller can also be a major player in this race. Admittedly, I'm not sure he'd be one of my very first picks to win, but when you pair of his 4:05 (mile) and 7:57 (3k) personal bests with his 8:51 steeple PR, you begin to realize that Miller isn't that far off from Kibet.
Other guys like Penn State's Connor McMenamin and Penn's William Hare are mainly steeplechase specialists and, for the most part, have been fairly reliable and consistent in this event...but what will they do to get an edge over a fairly deep field?
Also keep an eye on Indiana's Jake Gebhardt, North Carolina's Marshall Williamson, Ohio State's Nick Regas, Providence's Patrick Thygesen, Indiana's Austin Haskett and pretty much any name who has ever gone under 9:00.
This field lacks so much disparity that it's really hard to say who is favored and who isn't.
Wild Card(s)
The younger guys in this field, much like the 5k, are major wild cards.
I don't feel like North Carolina's Sully Shelton has really been able to translate his high school success to the track yet. I think this could be a great opportunity for him to do so, but you really just don't have any clue what he could do in this field.
It's a somewhat similar story for Ole Miss rookie Charlie Rose who is fresh off of a weekend double where he earned personal bests in the 800 meters (1:50) and the 1500 meters (3:47). Moving up to the steeplechase this week seems ambitious for a middle distance guy, but I like the decision to capitalize on his current momentum in an effort to try something new.
Final Predictions:
Alex Crigger (Tennessee) -- 8:49
Andrew Kibet (Arkansas) -- 8:51
Jack Miller (Pittsburg) -- 8:51
Women's 3000 Meter Steeplechase
Favorite(s)
Unlike the men's steeple field, this race feels like it has two somewhat obvious favorites.
One of those favorites being BYU's Lexy Halladay.
After running 9:55 earlier this month in her steeple debut, Halladay now has an opportunity to build upon her previous mark and gain further confidence going over the barriers.
Inexperience would be the only thing holding Halladay back from the win in this race. However, even that would be a stretch after she handled such a competitive field at the Mt. SAC Relays and held her own incredibly well during the indoor track season.
The other favorite, Miami (OH)'s Carmen Riano, holds a steeplechase personal best under 10:00 with a mark of 9:57, making her a contender for the win in this race.
Now, some of you may be thinking, "Yeah, but what else has she done?" To which I would say that she has run 16:00 for 5000 meters, one of the faster non-steeple personal bests in this field.
The fact that Riano has validated her fitness is super encouraging. She doesn't really have anything for us to dislike on her resume and while it would be nice for her to have more steeplechase experience, isn't that what this race is all about?
Sleeper(s)
Someone who I put in this section is going to have a breakout race and run under 10:00. The only problem is that a) I don't know who it's going to be, and b) I don't know if it will be enough to beat Riano or Halladay.
The North Carolina duo of Sasha Neglia and Sarah Trainor are interesting names. They are both are fairly young, but they have had plenty of recent success and both women flex steeplechase experience.
Trainor has more momentum, but Neglia has the faster PR in this event. Given their youth, I have a feeling that one of these two women is going to thrive in this field and run somewhere along the lines of 9:58 to 9:59.
This field is talented, but it's not so overwhelmingly talented that this UNC duo can't thrive in it.
Tennessee's Kate Thronson and Ole Miss' Kristel van den Berg each own personal bests under the 10:10 barrier, but does either woman have the necessary edge to contend for the win?
Both of these women are plenty accomplished in other distance events, but Thronson is the one who has run sub-16 (5k) and sub-9:10 (3k) before. If that fitness fully translates to the steeplechase, then is it safe to say that Thronson could win this race?
Wild Card(s)
I went through every single name in this field and truthfully, I couldn't find anyone who I would classify as a "wild card". However, if I was forced to choose, then I think Harvard's Isabella Goldstein is the name who best fits into this category.
Goldstein, who is the sister of current New Mexico Lobo standout Abbe Goldstein, is primarily a miler, owning times of 4:26 (1500) and 4:45 (mile). Those aren't standout marks, but at the very least, their competitive.
In the steeplechase, Goldstein holds a modest personal best of 10:25, a 25-second personal best that she ran last weekend. Given how good her sister is and the amount of progress that we've seen from her in this event this season, I think we could see a big performance from Goldstein that puts her under the 10:10 barrier.
Final Predictions:
Lexy Halladay (BYU) -- 9:54
Carmen Riano (Miami (OH)) -- 9:58
Sarah Trainor (North Carolina) -- 9:59
Relays Analysis & Predictions
Admittedly, the distance relays portion of the Penn Relays, while certainly fun, doesn't have the same impact on the NCAA that the open events do. Not only that, but the entries do not show who is in what relay. For the sake of time, we'll only be offering brief analysis for each race and then giving our predictions.
NOTE: Predictions assume that all relays are optimal "A" lineups.
Men's 4x800 Meter Relay
There is no chance that Ole Miss loses this race. They don't even need to run an "A" lineup, although I imagine that they will. That said, they can't get too comfortable. Georgetown is a lot better in the 800 meters this year than some people may realize. The same can be said for Penn State who will likely have a 1:47 and a 1:48 guy on their relay.
Final Predictions:
Ole Miss Rebels (7:13)
Penn State Nittany Lions (7:16)
Georgetown Hoyas (7:17)
Women's 4x800 Meter Relay
BYU will win this race if they want to. They the two best women in this field in Seymour and Ellsworth and they are deep enough to take home the win. However, Penn State may have the best overall group of half-milers. I could very easily see the Nittany Lions taking down BYU, but it won't be easy.
Other teams like Indiana, Ohio State and Virginia have plenty of great pieces, but they don't have the combination of depth and firepower that the BYU and Penn State women do.
Final Predictions:
BYU Cougars (8:19)
Penn State Nittany Lions (8:20)
Virginia Cavaliers (8:24)
Men's Distance Medley Relay
It largely depends on which relay combinations we're going to see, but I would think that Wisconsin and Ole Miss are the two favorites here. Hacker, Hassan and Spencer were incredible this past winter, but Ole Miss will now have Garcia Romo available on their DMR.
Indiana didn't have a great national meet, but they have also proven that they are able to play spoiler when racing against a few top-tier teams. Arkansas has also proven that they can put together a nationally competitive lineup, but is Schreml going to be their home run-hitting anchor? Or will that be Kemboi?
Final Predictions:
Wisconsin Badgers (9:21)
Ole Miss Rebels (9:21)
Indiana Hoosiers (9:24)
Women's Distance Medley Relay
If Courtney Wayment runs on the anchor for this relay, then BYU won't lose, especially if Seymour and Ellsworth are involved. And frankly, even if they aren't, there is still a small army of sub-4:40 milers on this roster who could have an impact. Maybe this is because I don't like this field as much as I do the other relays fields.
Given their indoor track success, we've got to think that the Virginia women will earn a runner-up finish. I'm also very high on Georgetown. I think they have some really underrated pieces and a handful of middle distance specialists who the Hoyas can utilize for this race.
I also like Vissa on the anchor leg of Ole Miss' DMR, but how will the rest of her team fare?
Final Predictions:
BYU Cougars (10:50)
Virginia Cavaliers (10:56)
Georgetown Hoyas (10:58)
Men's 4xMile Relay
Texas undeniably has the best group of milers in this field. Last I checked, they had seven men who own sub-four mile personal bests, many of which are well under the 4:00 barrier. The explosiveness and raw talent on each leg should give Texas the win.
But while the Longhorns have the most complete lineup, it's the Wisconsin men who may have the best 1-2 punch, the Virginia men who may have the most underrated depth, the Georgetown men who may have the most experience and the Villanova men who may have the most upside.
Penn State and Indiana are both pretty underrated as well.
Of course, as fast as I want this race to be, it never seems to be the all-out effort that everyone hopes for. For that reason, I don't expect this group to break 16:00.
Final Predictions:
Texas Longhorns (16:01)
Wisconsin Badgers (16:04)
Georgetown Hoyas (16:07)
Women's 4x1500 Meter Relay
This is going to be a crazy loaded race. BYU could be a major factor, but what lineup will we see from them? Even if they try to put together an optimal lineup, there are so many talented women on their roster that it's hard to know who is truly the best option and at what leg.
As for Arkansas, they may be the clear pick to win depending on who you ask, but it will also depend on what version of Krissy Gear we see. Still, she's been running fairly well as of late, meaning that the Razorbacks feel like the safest bet depending on who you ask.
The NC State women entering this race -- and only this race -- feels like a statement. They clearly want to win this. They have tons of depth and Tuohy is probably capable of running around 4:10 on the split. However, some of these women may be longer distance specialists who are coming down in distance, leaving some uncertainty.
Final Predictions:
Arkansas Razorbacks (17:06)
NC State Wolfpack (17:07)
BYU Cougars (17:08)
