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First Thoughts (Part Two): BYU's BIG 12 Debut, UVU + Butler Pull Off Upsets & Lobos Defeat Air Force
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Oct 28, 2023
- 13 min read
See? We told you that we would would have more conference meet coverage!
And yes, we'll (probably) have EVEN MORE analysis tomorrow!
Again, we won't be able to analyze every conference and every result, but we did want to highlight all of the major performances from Friday and Saturday that had some kind of impact on the national landscape. Let's not waste any time, we've got a lot to talk about!
BIG 12 XC Championships
Women's Race
1. BYU Cougars (35 points)
TSR's Gavin Struve outlined this race perfectly in our BIG 12 meet preview. He said that the Cougars were favored over the Cowgirls, but only by a little. He highlighted how BYU's depth would likely be the key difference maker against an Oklahoma State team that had a drop-off at the backend of their scoring group.
Sure enough, that's exactly what happened.
The Cougars didn't have a top-three finisher, individually, but Lexy Halladay-Lowry, Jenna Hutchins, Carmen Alder, Aubrey Frentheway and Riley Chamberlain crowded the top-10 with respective finishes of 4-6-7-8-10. Sadie Sargent (13th) and Carlee Hansen (14th) offered nice scoring support as well.
We didn't learn anything new about BYU, but it was great to see them go against a top-heavy, firepower-laden program and come away with a win, even if it was by four points.
2. Oklahoma State Cowgirls (39 points)
They may have finished runner-up, but the Oklahoma State women should still be fairly happy with how they ran.
Taylor Roe (1st) has finally returned to action and she still looks fantastic. The same could be said for Billah Jepkirui who has yet to fully showcase her talent on the grass. However, maybe the biggest development was seeing Molly Born snag a 4th place finish, further valdiating her successful spring campaign. She may realistically give the Cowgirls a third All-American.
Just as we expected, the 'Pokes had some challenges with their depth, although Gabija Galvydyte (15th) and Payton Hinkle (16th) were still serviceable backend options. And if one of those women was a few spots higher, then we could be looking at a tie-breaking scenario or even a reversal as to who wins this race.
It should also be noted that Oklahoma State didn't field Gabby Hentemann, Victoria Lagat or Stephanie Moss on Saturday. If any of those women ran, then you're looking at the Cowgirls cutting off a handful of points and snagging gold over BYU.
Keep that last part in mind as we dive deeper into the postseason...
3. Iowa State Cyclones (70 points)
I'd like to offer some in-depth and impactful analysis about Iowa State, but this was exactly what we thought that they would do.
The quintet of Madelynn Hill, Maelle Porcher, Janette Schraft, Dana Feyen and Sheridan Wheeler went 9-11-12-17-24, respectively, in the overall results. That was enough to comfortably place 3rd, but the Cyclones were simply not going to have enough firepower to contend with the podium threats that are BYU and Oklahoma State.
Sure, maybe their depth could've been a little better, but I thought this was fine showing and the women from Ames, Iowa should at least be happy that they're building consistency.
Individual Race
All that we needed to see from Taylor Roe and Billah Jepkirui on Saturday was that they were healthy and firing on all cylinders. That's exactly what happened as those two women went straight to the front early-on.
The Cowgirl duo did let Cherubet (briefly) work with the lead, but she was eventually reeled in before Roe and Jepkirui took over. Roe would eventually break away and dominate the individual race. Even so, it was great to see Texas Tech's Juliet Cherubet (3rd) validate some of her early-season promise as well.
Men's Race
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys (25 points)
Alright, we've got a lot to talk about with this team.
The Cowboys handled a loaded, top-heavy field on Saturday which featured two top-10 teams, one of which is a podium favorite (BYU). The performances that we saw from Alex Maier (2nd) and Fouad Messaoudi (5th) weren't too surprising. We figured that they would be top-five finishers in this field.
However, the names who we were most closely monitoring were Brian Masau and Denis Kipngetich, two rookies from Kenya who stunned us earlier this season with great performances at the Cowboy Jamboree.
Saturday was the first real test that either of those men had this season. Masau responded incredibly well, taking home the individual title in what felt like a statement race. Kipngetich, however, faltered a bit to 14th place, failing to look like the top-20 runner that we have him listed as in our rankings.
Teammate Victor Shitsama, who has proven to be one of the more reliable postseason runners in the country (specifically on the national stage), struggled quite a bit, falling back to 45th place. The good news, however, is that Will Muirhead (8th) and Jonas Price (9th) look like they have evolved into more than just support pieces. It's hard to know how they'll translate those results to the national stage, but that was encouraging to see.
To put it simply, some men on this team were better than we expected (or matched expectations) while other men weren't as sharp as we thought they'd be.
In my opinion, Shitsama and Kipngetich will need to be better and in All-American form if Oklahoma State is going to win the national title over Northern Arizona. Muirhead and Price could certainly emerge as All-American candidates as well, but the Cowboys will likely need all five men in the top-30 at the national meet to win NCAA gold.
2. BYU Cougars (55 points)
There's not much to talk about when it comes to BYU. Creed Thompson (3rd) and Joey Nokes (6th) were excellent, James Corrigan (13th) had a decent day and three other Cougars went 16-17-18 in the overall results.
This is a solid team that will compete for a podium spot in November, but without Davin Thompson and Casey Clinger, the Cougars can only go so far. Regardless, they fared well against a top-heavy Texas team that could've given them way more trouble.
3. Texas Longhorns (70 points)
Despite having a slew of low-sticks on their roster, the Longhorns' firepower was diluted in this BIG 12 field by the upfront presence of Oklahoma State as well as BYU's Creed Thompson and Joey Nokes. Top ace Devin Hart (4th) was excellent and wasn't easily shaken. His teammate, Rodger Rivera (10th), also had one of the best races of his career.
However, with Haftu Knight, Isaac Alonzo and Emmanuel Sgouros fading to spots 15-20-21, respectively, the aggressive front-running of Oklahoma State led to Texas having some gaps.
Even so, the men from Austin, Texas shouldn't be too upset. Having two runners in the top-10 is fairly impressive when you consider who was in this race. They kept things somewhat competitive with BYU and they took down a strong Iowa State team.
4. Iowa State Cyclones (114 points)
Said Mechaal (7th) continues to be a great storyline for the Cyclones this fall. However, after him, no other Iowa State runner would the line until 19 spots later. In fact, the next six Iowa State men finished between 26th place and 32nd place.
On paper, the results make it seem like it was intentional for the Cyclones to hold back and run as a group (other than Mechaal). But on the live stream, specifically when they were crossing the finish line, I couldn't tell if that was the case.
I did think Iowa State would keep things a bit closer with Texas than they did. And truthfully, scoring 114 points with the roster that they have isn't the greatest development. Even so, I don't feel like I can really pull any significant insight about this team after Saturday.
That said, in a larger, more spread-out field, I do think that the Cyclones will fare better.
Individual Race
Brian Masau took control in the second-half of this race and looked downright dominant. However, you have to give credit to Alex Maier for not relenting. He closed the gap, but didn't have another gear to get gold.
Also, tough day for Chandler Gibbens who faded to 11th. The Kansas star is definitely better than what he showed us on Saturday, but at least he has a better idea of what the top of the national meet field will probably look like.
WAC XC Championships
Women's Race
1. Utah Valley Wolverines (30 points)
2. California Baptist Lancers (36 points)
You can't talk about one team without discussing the other.
The California Baptist women came into the WAC XC Championships as the heavy favorites to win the conference title. They had thrived at the Nuttycombe Invitational and were listed at TSR #9 in our rankings. And while Utah Valley was certainly a solid (and somewhat underrated) team, the Lancers were still expected to handle this field with ease.
However, an aggressive front-running approach by a couple of CBU women, paired with an "off" day from one or two of their scorers, led to a stunning upset. Utah Valley took home the win with 30 points, defeating their juggernaught rival by six points.
Greta Karinauskaite (1st) and Grace McLaughlin (3rd) continue to be excellent low-sticks for the Lancers, but Marina Trave (8th) was the only other CBU runner in the top-10.
Meanwhile, Utah Valley had Ari Trimble (2nd) break up the Karinauskaite-McLaughlin duo before the rest of her teammates -- Morgan Nokes (5th), Anna Martin (6th), Lydia Beus (7th) and Abbie Fuhriman (10th) -- capitalized on California Baptist's lineup gaps.
What an unbelievably impressive job by Utah Valley coach, Scott Houle. Despite losing many high-octane scorers from last year's national qualifying squad, he has reloaded his roster and has ultimately avoided a rebuild. Transfers such as Nokes and Martin have been critical scoring pieces while the other three scorers are seemingly ahead of schedule in their fitness despite being underclassmen (by eligibility).
As for California Baptist, this loss definitely has to sting, but I wouldn't necessarily hit the panic button with them. They've been outstanding this year and one bad day in a small field shouldn't dramatically hurt them in our rankings.
That being said, Friday's race further highlights some of CBU's limited depth after their first few scorers, something that we mentioned after the Nuttycombe Invite.
Individual Race
Despite the crushing team loss, it was nice to see Greta Karinauskaite rebound from a tough Nuttycombe performance with a solid win. She was heavily favored and sure enough, she dominated, further proving that her last effort was a fluke.
BIG East XC Championships
Women's Race
1. Georgetown Hoyas (28 points)
I'll admit, I thought that the Providence women would give Georgetown more of a challenge. That, however, didn't happen as the Hoyas dominated this field.
Chloe Scrimgeour (1st) is inching closer to that "elite" tier, Melissa Riggins (3rd) has evolved into one of the best secondary scorers in the country and the veteran trio of Chloe Gonzalez (6th), Kelsey Swenson (8th) and Maggie Donahue (10th) offer tremendous stability.
If Donahue is able to return to her top form from past years, then Georgetown may go from being a "podium contender" to a "podium favorite". And yet, even if she replicates her current performances on the national stage, I'm beginning to feel more and more comfortable with the idea of the Georgetown women being a top-four team at the national meet.
2. Providence Friars (56 points)
The ongoing absence of Jane Buckley from Providence's lineup has been tough to manage. The Friars wouldn't have beat Georgetown if she did race, but they would have been much more competitive.
Kimberley May (2nd) continues to be flat-out incredible this fall and Shannon Flockhart (9th) has helped the Friars get by with strong secondary scoring. But with no other women finishing in the top-10 on Saturday and their fifth scorer falling to 19th, it was hard to be too excited about Providence's overall performance.
Individual Race
Chloe Scrimgeour (Georgetown) comfortably getting the win and Kimberley May (Providence) comfortably grabbing a runner-up finish is probably the least surprising top-two individual results that we've seen this weekend.
Men's Race
1. Butler Bulldogs (36 points)
2. Villanova Wildcats (42 points)
This is another one of those races where you can't mention one team without the other.
I knew that the Butler men were talented and better than some people realized, but man, I don't think I expected them to take down Villanova! Not in this field!
The Bulldogs were fantastic on Saturday at the BIG East XC Championships. With Florian LePallec, William Zegarski and Matthew Forrester going 3-4-5, much of Villanova's firepower (headlined by Liam Murphy and Haftu Strintzos going 1-2) was negated.
Villanova had Marco Langon place 7th, but Will Minnette was Butler's fourth runner in 10th place. The Wildcats had their own fourth scorer, Ryan Kredell, finish 15th, but that was only after Butler's Jesse Hamlin closed out the Bulldogs' scoring with a 14th place finish.
And with the Wildcats' final scorer (Xian Shively) placing 17th, there just wasn't enough backend support for Villanova to match their Indianapolis-based counterparts.
This race validates the concerns that we've highlighted with Villanova this year and the upside that I've detailed with Butler. The Wildcats' depth is limited this fall and one slight "off" day from someone could create some issues.
As for the Bulldogs, when they field a complete lineup, they shouldn't have too many weak points. Plus, the return of Jesse Hamlin as a scorer this fall helps a ton, although Butler still would've won without them.
I still view Villanova as one of the best teams in the country, but I'm glad that we now have good reason to give Butler a somewhat hearty boost in our next rankings update.
3. Georgetown Hoyas (71 points)
It wasn't perfect, but this was still a very solid effort for the Georgetown men.
Parker Stokes (6th) is slowly rounding back into top low-stick form. It's also been great to see teammates Abel Teffra (12th) and Matthew Rizzo (13th) emerge as valuable support scorers. Rizzo, in particular, has been a quietly great piece for the Hoyas this fall.
The final two Georgetown scorers finished 19th and 21st. That wasn't totally ideal, but this team has come a long way since their rough showing at the Virginia Invitational.
4. Providence Friars (75 points)
I don't think we learned anything new about the scoring structure of Providence, but I like that they kept things competitive with Georgetown. Liam Back (8th), Abdel Laadjel (9th) and Michael Morgan (11th) have been an underrated trio this fall, although the Friars' depth continues to be a major point of emphasis.
Individual Race
While he probably cares more about the final team result, seeing Liam Murphy (Villanova) comfortably take home a conference title should only build his confidence.
Mountain West XC Championships
Women's Race
1. Colorado State Rams (39 points)
I can totally understand if the Colorado State women were frustrated with me after saying that they'd lose to New Mexico and that the Lobos' star low-stick, Nicola Jansen, would beat the Rams' top ace, Sarah Carter.
Well, neither of those things happened on Friday.
Colorado State dominated this race and Carter was the one who took home individual gold while Jansen settled for silver.
Quinn McConnell (5th) and Yasmin Austridge (7th) offered great support for Colorado State while Kensey May (11th) and Emily Chaston (15th) did their jobs (quite well, I may add). McConnell deserves some credit for making quietly-great improvements this year. She has become such a great scorer for this team in 2023.
Now, in my defense, my reason for picking New Mexico (a team that struggled and placed 4th) was based on the idea that Emma Heckel was running (she did not). But even Heckel had won this race, the Lobos still wouldn't have finished among the top-two.
Individual Race
In my eyes, the Mountain West individual title was a toss-up between Colorado State's Sarah Carter and New Mexico's Nicola Jansen. Jansen got the better of Carter at Griak, but then Carter got Jansen by a single spot at Nuttycombe.
In my eyes, I felt like the Mountain West XC Championships, at least from a size and competition perspective, more closely emulated the Griak Invitational than the Nuttcombe Invitational. So if you're wondering why I made the predictions that I did, then that hopefully gives you some clarity.
Men's Race
1. New Mexico Lobos (34 points)
2. Air Force Falcons (36 points)
Going into Friday, we knew that we were going to see an incredibly tight battle in the men's team race at the Mountain West XC Championships. The two scoring structures of New Mexico and Air Force couldn't have been more different, but on paper, they were (seemingly) equally as competitive.
The Lobos' lethal scoring trio -- Habtom Samuel Keleta, Evans Kiplagat and Lukas Kiprop -- unsurprisingly went 1-2-3 in the overall results. However, we then saw the Air Force men put Max Sannes (4th), Sean Maison (6th) and Jason Renze (7th) in front of the Lobos' fourth scorer.
However, that fourth scorer, Jonathan Carmin (8th), ended up being the difference maker.
Carmin had struggled earlier this season, fading out of the Lobos' scoring group. But given his talent on the track (holding a 13:52 PR for 5k), we knew that he could be an impact name for his team. And thankfully for New Mexico, he came through in the clutch.
The Falcons did put their final two scorers, Eli Bennett (9th) and Luke Combs (10th), in the top-10, but with Samuel Field finishing 20th for New Mexico, the Lobos had just enough support to win the Mountain West title.
Honestly, I can't fault Air Force for this loss. The return of Carmin as an impact scorer makes a massive difference in how strong New Mexico's lineup can be in these kinds of fields. Not only that, but there was only so much room for improvement if you're the Falcons. Putting five men in the top-10, with the first three spots already taken, left Air Force with very little upside.
As for New Mexico...they had my attention, but now they have my curiosity. This team is basically the same as Alabama if they had a stronger fourth scorer. I don't feel comfortable saying that they're a top-10 team (yet), but we may need to start having that conversation.
Individual Race
There's not much to talk about here. There was no chance that Habtom Samuel Keleta was going to lose this race.
Ivy League XC Championships
Men's Race
1. Princeton Tigers (40 points)
2. Harvard Crimson (43 points)
We can say that Princeton winning is an upset (and yes, based on the rankings, it is), but if you observed the lineup structures of both Princeton and Harvard closely enough, then you probably knew that it was going to be a coin toss.
And sure enough, that was more or less the case.
Harvard went into this race leaning on their firepower while Princeton was going to leverage their depth. Graham Blanks (1st) unsurprisingly won the title while teammate Ben Rosa (3rd) was a pleasant surprise at the bronze medal position. Acer Iverson (5th) would end up giving the Crimson three men in the top-five.
But then Princeton took over.
Nicholas Bendtsen (4th) continued his quietly great cross country season while teammates Jarrett Kirk, Connor Nisbet, Anthony Monte and Daniel O'Brien packed in behind him, going 7-8-10-11, respectively, in the overall results. And with Harvard's last two scorers finishing 14th and 20th, there wasn't nearly enough support for the Crimson to fend off the Tigers.
In full transparency, the Harvard men will likely remain above Princeton in our next rankings update. In larger fields, this final result likely looks a bit different -- and Nuttycombe is a good example of what I'm talking about. Plus, Princeton beat Harvard in the exact same way last year and yet, the Crimson still ended up as the better team on the national stage.
That being said, Princeton is undoubtedly better than they were last year. Their lineup is way more complete, arguably even deeper, they've been fairly consistent and they're only getting better with each passing race.
Individual Race
Graham Blanks is really good at running, but that shouldn't be a surprise. However, I really like what Dylan Throop has been doing. This Penn ace was 7th at Pre-Nationals and is now the runner-up finisher at the Ivy League XC Championships. Keep an eye on him as we advance deeper into the postseason. Momentum is very clearly building in his favor.
