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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 BIG 12 XC Championships
- Gavin Struve
- Oct 27, 2023
- 9 min read
Questions by Garrett Zatlin, answers by Gavin Struve, edits via Garrett Zatlin
Many of the biggest and best conference meets have already kicked-off today (or eventually will). Luckily, distance running fans like ourselves will be treated to an entirely new day of racing tomorrow (Saturday) where we will see the BIG 12 XC Championships unfold.
The recent addition of BYU to the conference has made the men's and women's BIG 12 cross country races far more interesting than they have been in recent years. And with teams like Colorado and Utah soon joining the conference in 2024, things aren't going to get any easier for the teams that were already members.
Instead of a classic, "lets just write a lot and ramble" kind of preview, I decided to employ the services of TSR's D2 and D3 editor (and former D1 contributor), Gavin Struve. We had Gavin answer a few questions regarding the focal points of the BIG 12 XC Championships while offering some analysis along the way.
Let's see what Gavin had to say...
Women's Analysis
Let's get straight to the point: Who, in your opinion, is favored to win the women's BIG 12 team title on Saturday? Oklahoma State or BYU?
In short, BYU is the favorite to win the BIG 12 team title on the women’s side.
I’m really tempted to choose Oklahoma State to win their third-consecutive conference title, particularly with low-stick ace Taylor Roe listed in the entries and slated to return to this lineup. And while it’s more likely than not that the six-time All-American will look as if she hasn’t missed a beat in her season debut, we haven’t seen Roe run like her best self in over six months.
But that’s not the main reason why I’m picking against the Cowgirls.
Both of these teams have enviable firepower, depth and lineup options to varying degrees, but I feel just a bit better about the latter two elements when it comes to the Cougars' roster. The number of realistic top-10 finishers that BYU has seems to be more than what the Cowgirls may be able to sport, something that is reflected in my predictions.
And while it’s highly possible that OSU puts two women ahead of the line before any BYU runner, the complete nature of the Cougars’ varsity lineup should give them their first BIG 12 title in their first year in the conference.
Finish these sentences: If BYU wins the BIG 12 title, then it's because of ____. If Oklahoma State wins the BIG 12 title, then it's because of ____.
If BYU wins the BIG 12 title, then it’s because they overwhelmed Oklahoma State with scoring options. The Cougars enter this meet with (slightly) less firepower, but have raced more often than the Cowgirls this season. In doing so, they have showcased their depth and interchangeable lineup, making them the safer pick to win the BIG 12 title in my mind.
I mean, let's think about. The combination of Carmen Alder, Aubrey Frentheway, Lexy Halladay-Lowry, Jenna Hutchins and Riley Chamberlain could all finish in a variety of different orders if this race was run 10 different times. And if the Cowgirls had their fourth and fifth scorers break up that group in any significant way, then that would be a surprise.
Simply put, BYU seemingly has a much higher floor.
If Oklahoma State wins the BIG 12 title, then it’s because Taylor Roe hasn’t lost a step and someone steps up at the backend of the Cowgirls' lineup. That, or Molly Born fully returns to her 2019 form and looks like one of the top cross country runners in the NCAA yet again.
None of those suggested outcomes are far-fetched despite the non-existent data that we have on this team for their 2023 fall campaign. From a depth perspective, Gabija Galvydyte proved to be a highly effective scorer on the grass last year while other women such as Sivan Auerbach, Heidi Demeo and/or Cayden Dawson could be due for big races.
Admittedly, it does feel like Oklahoma State needs a little more to go right to succeed than BYU does, especially with Gabby Hentemann, Victoria Lagat and Stephanie Moss absent from the entries. For that reason, the Cougars are the safer pick to win.
Within how many points can the Iowa State women realistically come to the runner-up team on Saturday?
Iowa State is far and away the third-best team in this still-expanding conference. And in a setting like this where two powerhouse programs figure to flood the top-10 spots, the Cyclones will likely be a distant third wheel.
If this race plays out as expected, BYU and Oklahoma State will be within a few points of each other, roughly in the mid-30s range. Given that Madelyn Hill is the only Cyclone who I have projected to finish in the top-10, the Cyclones’ middle-lineup and backend scorers will need to close things out in relatively short order to stay reasonably close.
It feels like there’s a larger drop-off than usual after the top-two teams this year, so a realistic best-case margin between 2nd place and 3rd is probably around 25 points, although it’s plenty possible that the Cyclones come closer than that.
Which women in this field can realistically win the individual BIG 12 title this weekend? What percent chance would you assign to those women when it comes to winning gold on Saturday?
Up to six different women can win this race if everything falls into place for them on Saturday. The prime candidates are Oklahoma State’s Billah Jepkirui and Taylor Roe. I’d assign each of them a 25% chance to win, and whichever name you feel more confident in depends on which factors you value the most.
Lexy Halladay-Lowry and Aubrey Frentheway are similar in that it’s hard to choose one teammate over the other, and I’d give each of them a 15% chance. Both have arguably less upside than the aforementioned Cowgirls tandem, but probably a stronger baseline.
Their teammate, Carmen Alder, has looked sharper this fall after a stunning win at Pre-Nationals, but is a bit more unproven and less accomplished. For that reason, which is no fault of her own, I’d give her a 10% chance. That said, she looks to have one of the higher floors in this field and should be comfortably in the top-10.
Lastly, I’d give Madelyn Hill a 5% chance to win if she can parlay a solid showing at last year’s BIG 12 XC Championships (7th) with her recent Nuttycombe result (36th). I’ll give the rest of the field a 5% chance as well, leaving the door open for a total unknown runner in a race without a clear-cut favorite.
It should also be noted that West Virginia star, Ceili McCabe, is not listed in the entries.
Who is the most underrated individual in the women's field?
I’m not sure that she’ll factor into the individual race in any substantial way, but Beth Ramos is the lead scorer for a Texas program that, for quite awhile, has been a top-four team (or better) in this league. In fact, Ramos was with the Longhorns for back-to-back conference runner-up finishes in 2019 and 2020.
She’s still looking to kick-start her progressional momentum once again, but this is someone who has finished no worse than 22nd place in four appearances on this stage. Ramos should play a role in keeping the ‘Horns in the top-five in their final year in the BIG 12.
Women's Predictions
Teams
BYU Cougars
Oklahoma State Cowgirls
Iowa State Cyclones
West Virginia Mountaineers
Texas Longhorns
Individuals
Billah Jepkirui (Oklahoma State)
Taylor Roe (Oklahoma State)
Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)
Aubrey Frentheway (BYU)
Carmen Alder (BYU)
Madelynn Hill (Iowa State)
Juliet Cherubet (Texas Tech)
Molly Born (Oklahoma State)
Jenna Hutchins (BYU)
Gabija Galvydyte (Oklahoma State)
Men's Analysis
The Oklahoma State men are likely viewed as the favorites to win the BIG 12 team title. Within how many points will the BYU men and Texas men be of the Cowboys? Which squad is more capable of pulling off an upset?
In a world in which all things are equal and everyone runs at their best, Oklahoma State wins the upcoming BIG 12 men’s team title by a comfortable margin over BYU by at least 20 points.
That’s in large part because the Cowboys have the kind of elite firepower that’s unmatched by any other team in the country depending on how you view Northern Arizona. Without any singular low-stick of that magnitude, or the elite depth that BYU has, the Texas men will likely be further back, probably by over 30 points.
In an absolutely percent, near-miracle scenario, either of these squads could take down the men from Stillwater, Oklahoma. The reality is, for as talented as the Cowboys are, we haven’t seen a couple of their names yet this fall and others have raced just once in the NCAA ever.
In my eyes, BYU is more capable of the upset. They can offer comparable firepower through more than just one runner, they have tons of depth and there is still some untapped potential within some of their men, specifically Kenneth Rooks.
Texas has a lethal quartet of low-sticks between Devin Hart, Haftu Knight, Rodger Rivera and Isaac Alonzo. However, each of those men would need to have the best days of their career and their fifth runner would need to make big improvements for an upset to happen.
I’d still take the Cowboys over the field, but there are now two teams in the BIG 12 (perhaps just for one fleeting season) that are at least capable (by whatever margin that may be) of knocking off the Oklahoma State men. And believe it or not, neither of them is Iowa State.
What do you need to see from Oklahoma State on Saturday for them to be your national title favorites? Or are they already at that point for you?
While I think Oklahoma State has even greater upside than the dynasty out west, I still value Northern Arizona’s history of success more. Oh, and their current combination of stars is pretty elite, too.
The Cowboys’ scorers essentially need to individually live up to their expectations — which are high, as suggested by our race predictions — in order for them to become the national title favorites over the Lumberjacks in my eyes.
That’s a high bar to clear by design as NAU has shown no chinks in their armor. However, the fact that this is even a conversation speaks to the tangible talent that the program in Stillwater has collected, something that was evidenced by a tie with Northern Arizona to end their 2022 season on their home course last year.
The Iowa State men are currently listed at TSR #22 in our team rankings. After this weekend, how much better could you see the Cyclones being ranked in our top-25?
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but there’s not a whole lot of room for upward mobility in the BIG 12. That’s not to say that it’s impossible, but save for a catastrophic day from Oklahoma State or BYU, the Cyclones’ only real chance at moving up in our top-25 rankings is upsetting our TSR #7 team, Texas.
It’s somewhat possible, but mostly implausible, that things could blow up for the Cowboys or Cougars, but that’s something that the ISU men know that they can’t rely on, having consistently finished behind their rivals over the past few years.
The Longhorns, meanwhile, have plenty of firepower of their own, but they aren't as complete or as proven as their podium-contending adversaries. That, in turn, could leave a (fairly slim) chance for Iowa State to upset Texas.
That being said, I could see Iowa State’s group of men running better, both individually and collectively, than they have this fall. They could move up a couple of spots even if they finish 4th place tomorrow so long as they’re competitive with their peers.
How would an individual title from Chandler Gibbens (Kansas) on Saturday change your opinion of him once he reaches the national stage?
Earning gold would further validate this Kansas ace as a truly elite individual talent, a status that he flirted with last spring, but is looking to firmly solidify this fall.
Gibbens already looks like a top-half All-American after hinting at that ability over 5000 meters on the track and by winning the Joe Piane Invitational earlier this fall. But winning a conference title against a field that features numerous top-20 talents, nationally, would be his most impressive feat yet.
Would it be ludicrous to say that the winner of this race, including Chandler Gibbens, will become a fringe national title contender? I don't think that's a crazy suggestion...
Who is the most underrated individual in the men's field?
How about Texas veteran Haftu Knight? I don’t know if it’s fair to call a cross country All-American and 13:32 (5k) runner "underrated," but it feels like Texas’ longest-tenured star is flying under the radar.
He has yet to finish higher than 8th place (or lower than 13th place) in three appearances on this stage. Plus, Knight also has familiarity with this meet and his peers which could set up for a more successful send-off than many might expect (and perhaps a better performance than higher-ranked teammate, Devin Hart).
Knight’s performance could also hold massive team implications as the Longhorns attempt to upset either Oklahoma State or BYU on their way out of the league.
Men's Predictions
Teams
Oklahoma State Cowboys
BYU Cougars
Texas Longhorns
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
Individuals
Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State)
Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)
Joey Nokes (BYU)
Chandler Gibbens (Kansas)
Alex Maier (Oklahoma State)
Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)
Creed Thompson (BYU)
Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State)
Devin Hart (Texas)
Kenneth Rooks (BYU)
