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First Thoughts: Jacobs Defeats Wildschutt, Miller's Big Rebound & Nichols Thrills in 10k (Part Two)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- May 16, 2022
- 14 min read
Aaliyah Miller Returns to Peak Form, Runs Converted 2:01
Baylor's Aaliyah Miller just hasn't been the same this year.
Or at least, she hadn't been the same this year...up until this weekend.
The 2021 indoor national champion in the 800 meters -- who tied the previous indoor 800 meter record set by Jazmine Fray before Athing Mu stepped onto the scene -- was given high expectations coming into 2022.
However, Miller's once-incredible explosiveness has been lacking this year (when looking at her times) ever since she surprisingly didn't qualify for the 800 meter finals at the outdoor national meet last spring.
Miller ran one 800 meter race this past winter in a time of 2:05 and then started the spring season with a 2:06 mark and a 2:05 mark.
To be clear, Miller hasn't necessarily been "bad" this year. However, for someone who has a 2:00.69 personal best and a slew of marks that sit well under the 2:03 barrier, we expected to see so much more from Miller...
And then she ran 2:03.
It was that result that prompted both myself and fellow podcast co-host Ben Weisel to say, "Are we witnessing a comeback campaign from Aaliyah Miller?" Our theory was that her latest 2:03 result could be used as a stepping stone back into the elite territory that she had one put herself in throughout 2021.
And sure enough, our suspicions were correct.
This past weekend, Miller blasted a 2:02 mark for 800 meters at the BIG 12 Championships, giving her the title and a minor altitude conversion of 2:01. In the process, she took down a rising star in Oklahoma State's Gabija Galvydyte who settled for a time of 2:03 (unconverted).
So...is Miller back?
I don't think there is any answer other than "yes". She has clearly built momentum and has improved her 800 meter marks throughout the entirety of this season. Given her raw talent, we said that her 2:03 mark could lead to bigger and better results and that was exactly the case.
Miller might be the last woman who you want to face on the national stage in the 800 meters this year...depending on how you feel about our next name.
Carley Thomas Extends Comeback Campaign, Runs 2:02
In the early portion of 2020, Washington's Carley Thomas was a clear superstar. Despite Penn's Nia Akins looking like the dominant name around the NCAA, Thomas clearly posed as a legitimate title threat to the Ivy League superstar.
Unfortunately, the sudden rise of the pandemic never allowed us to see that matchup on the national stage.
Akins would eventually turn pro and a few months later, Thomas would break her femur in a tubing accident, sidelining her for a significant amount of time and reeling backwards in her fitness.
The latest indoor track season was a respectable one for Thomas, but she was clearly not the same runner that she once was in 2020.
But then she ran 2:04 at Fresno State.
And then 2:03 at the Sound Running Track Meet.
Followed by another 2:03 mark in the PAC-12 prelims.
And finally, in the PAC-12 finals, Thomas ripped off a huge 2:02 mark, giving her the win over Stanford superstar Julia Heymach.
Thomas' time was just 0.18 seconds off of her personal best, essentially signaling that she is back in top form and peaking better than almost anyone in the country.
Yes, maybe even Aaliyah Miller.
If the pandemic never happened and if Thomas never broke her femur, I'm convinced that she wouldn't be in the NCAA anymore. Instead, I would have expected her to be a pro right now. That's how good this Washington star was in 2020.
Given her history of threatening top-tier stars and her crazy strong momentum right now, I think I have to ask this question...could Thomas win a national title this spring? That may be a stretch, especially in a year where everyone is running 2:01 and 2:02.
Still, when it comes to the nuances of racing, Thomas is a massive threat to almost anyone.
Jacobs Runs 13:23 to Defeat Wildschutt in ACC 5k
This was a matchup that we were excited to see. Jacobs and Wildschutt went head-to-head at the ACC Indoor Championships in the 3k this past winter with Jacobs ultimately getting the win thanks to some brilliant tactical execution.
Wildschutt, however, got the better of Jacobs at the indoor national meet in the 5k.
This ACC 5k race was essentially going to act as a gauge of the overall fitness and the tactical understanding of these two runners. In the end, I picked Jacobs for the win, a prediction that ultimately came true.
Despite Wildschutt holding the faster 5k and 10k marks this year, Jacobs' understanding of positioning and surging is simply better than that of Wildschutt. We saw exactly that in the 3k during the ACC Indoor Championships and we saw it again this past weekend.
Jacobs tailed for Wildschutt for almost the entirety of the race before breaking away over the final two laps and simply outrunning the Florida State star for an ACC title in a time of 13:23.
Now, in defense of Florida State and Wildschutt, I really liked their approach. Wildschutt thrives in super fast and aggressively paced races. Having two pace setters take the lead early-on was a very smart move from the Seminoles as it (theoretically) put Wildschutt in a better scenario than a sit-and-kick situation.
Still, Jacobs is simply better suited for races where positioning and placement is the priority.
Of course, the NCAA Indoor Championships, where Jacobs fell out of All-American position and Wildschutt placed 4th overall, would suggest otherwise.
Either way, I don't think this result is super surprising, although Jacobs likely carries with him a lot more confidence now given how he cruised to a 13:23 mark.
Also, shoutout to Wake Forest's Aaron Las Heras who ran 13:38 (3rd) and NC State's Nathan Kawalec who ran 13:39 (4th). Both men are having great seasons and Kawalec is a name who we should be monitoring in the future, specifically for cross country.
Chelangat Wins SEC 5k Title, Valby Makes Promising Return
Alabama's Mercy Chelangat ran 15:22 for 5000 meters to win the SEC title...and that's all I really have to say about that. Don't get me wrong, that's an impressive win, but Chelangat was favored to take home the victory and seeing her run crazy fast times isn't unusual.
However, the bigger development is Florida's Parker Valby returning for the postseason! This Gator superstar was phenomenal during the indoor track season, running a jaw-dropping PR of 8:53 for 3000 meters...and then disappearing.
A presumed injury (which is only speculation) took Valby out of competition for months and we weren't sure if we would see her this spring. That, of course, is no longer the case as the Florida youngster ran 15:32 for 5000 meters to settle for silver at the SEC Championships.
Valby is one of the most dangerous underclassmen in the country. She has proven on numerous occasions that she can thrive in highly competitive fields and that she can run multiple top-tier marks in a variety of distance events.
This Gator standout may be young, but her ceiling and potential upside far outweighs the inexperience that she carries. She did, after all, beat Arkansas' Lauren Gregory (who was doubling back from the 1500 meters) who ran 15:39 in that same race.
Colorado & Stanford Impress in PAC-12 5k, Herrera Wins
The Buffaloes and the Cardinal were awfully impressive at the PAC-12 Championships in the 5k this past weekend. Colorado's Eduardo Herrera took home the win in an excellent time of 13:33 while Stanford's Cole Sprout and Ky Robinson settled for a pair of 13:36 marks.
For the most part, that trio of performances isn't surprising. Herrera was plenty capable of winning that race and when he did, the Stanford men were almost certainly going to be right behind him.
However, the athletes who finished outside of that top-three are who I really want to talk about.
Colorado's Andrew Kent has been sneaky-good this year. He was a quietly great name at Georgia Tech, but he has refined his fitness enough to the point where he now owns a 13:28 personal best and is finishing 4th in a LOADED conference.
Running 13:37 to edge Thomas Boyden (who we'll talk about in a moment), as well as 13:21 man Aaron Bienenfeld, is very encouraging for Kent. He doesn't need to be Eduardo Herrera to have success in the postseason, he just needs to be able to take down that next tier of low-stick men -- and it looks like he's doing exactly that.
As for Boyden, this is a huge development for Stanford. Seeing this Cardinal youngster run 28:44 for 10,000 meters earlier this spring and now run 13:37 for 5000 meters is extremely encouraging.
Everyone knows how incredible Stanford's top three (Robinson, Hicks and Sprout) is. In fact, that may be the best distance trio in the country with the possible exception of the men at Northern Arizona.
But from a cross country perspective, Stanford needs to fill out the backend of their lineup. They just need two more All-American candidates in the final two scoring spots of their lineup to win a national team title.
And right now, I don't think it's ridiculous to suggest that Boyden can be a top-40 runner in November given his ongoing rise and recent progression. With teammate Evan Burke running 13:38 earlier this spring, and a handful of other teammates showing plenty of promise, is it possible that the Cardinal could win a national title in November?
I'm sure the Lumberjacks have something to say about that, but I guess we'll see...
Nichols Runs NCAA-Lead of 32:27 to Win 10k Title, Doubles Back to Win 5k Title Ahead of Covert
In a recent episode of the Blue Oval Podcast, I explained to co-host Ben Weisel that Colorado's Abby Nichols was one of my national title favorite in the women's 10k.
The only problem is that Nichols had not yet contested a 10k when that episode aired.
Even so, the 10k has been Nichols' marquee event and it would have been criminal if the Buffalo superstar had not toed the line for that distance this spring.
Well, sure enough, she did toe the line for a 10k race and the results met all of our expectations -- and then some.
Nichols threw down a monster time of 32:27 this past weekend, taking home the PAC-12 title and securing the top 10k time in the country. And while this mark was a may be tad faster than I was expecting, it also wasn't out of the realm of possibility, either.
After all, Nichols has been on fire this spring, running 15:27 for 5000 meters at the start of the season before dropping a mind-boggling mark of 15:15 en route to a finish over Chelangat. To see her run such a monster time in her ideal event makes sense given her recent rise.
But as strong as Nichols was, plenty of credit has to be given to Washington's Haley Herberg who, unsurprisingly, opted to take control of the pace for a bit and keep things honest before she was later overtaken by Oregon's Alessia Zarbo who had the race of her life.
Nichols mirrored the moves of the leaders beautifully and was able to quickly react to certain surges, but Zarbo really added a sense or urgency to this race and looked really strong throughout.
Make no mistake, Zarbo has been a talented name who has shown plenty of promise throughout her time with the Ducks. Even so, running 32:28 is next-level stuff and given how she handled this field, I think I like her to be an All-American this spring...which is not something that I usually say about recent breakout stars.
And yes, I know that she has run 15:50 for 5000 meters before, but this 10k result is far and away the best mark that Zarbo has ever posted.
Coming back to Colorado, what made this race so special for the Buffaloes is that Emily Covert ran 32:30 for 3rd place, giving the Buffaloes a whopping 16 points with just two runners. Tack on India Johnson's 6th place finish (33:01) and Hannah Miniutti's 8th place finish (33:49), and you get a whopping 20 points for the Buffaloes in just one race.
Wow.
The 10k was always going to be Covert's best event. She has always been at her best in the longer distances, so this was hardly a surprise. But for her to run 32:30 and now emerge as a real All-American candidate, maybe even an All-American favorite, is super exciting.
Covert has a chance to be a highly ranked name in our Top 25 rankings, but she needed to find her sweet spot in terms of racing. Well, after this weekend, I think she found it.
Finally, shoutout to Haley Herberg who took over pacing duties for a while. She probably wasn't going to win this race, especially if her intention was to outrun this field, but this is her best event and it would not at all surprise me if she was a top-eight finisher on the national stage.
Teammate Allie Schadler also deserves some attention. She's been great in every distance, but she handled this 10k race incredibly well. Is she someone who's going to try to the 10k/5k double in a few weeks?
It sure seems possible...
Oh, and before we go, Nichols and Covert also doubled back for the 5000 meters, going 1-2 and running 15:47 and 15:48, respectively. Altogether, they scored 34 points for Colorado this past weekend...that's just flat-out incredible.
Fay Runs 8:32 to Defeat Robinson (8:33) & Johnsen (8:34)
Everyone who doesn't read The Stride Report is going to look at this result and think, "Wow, 8:32 is a great time for someone making their steeplechase debut."
That, however, would be an incorrect assumption.
Fay actually owns a lethal steeplechase mark of 8:29 from last summer just before he came to Washington. While he has sharpened his mile speed and has built upon his 5k prowess, it's the steeplechase that has a chance to be his best event.
Running 8:32 is one thing, but taking down a megastar talent in Ky Robinson who ran 8:33 in the same race is what really captures your attention. Fay has suddenly shifted the conversation of what his postseason will now look like.
The Husky superstar thrives in the 5k, owning the NCAA leading time of 13:16, but does he really want to go all-in for a 5k race which will almost certainly feature Abdi Nur and numerous other stars?
Meanwhile, the steeplechase doesn't necessarily have one overwhelming favorite at the very top, but the number of men who could realistically won gold in that event seem to be far greater than the 5k.
So what does Fay do? What is his best event? Which race gives him the best chance to win gold?
I don't have the answers to any of those questions, but I don't think there is a wrong answer.
As for Robinson, it's a very similar story. Sure, he didn't get the win over Fay, but he wasn't far off and this has historically been his event.
The difference, however, is that Robinson is also a top name in the 10k this spring. This, in turn, opens up a very realistic 10k/steeple double at his regional meet...but makes a steeple/10k double at the national meet fairly difficult and unlikely.
There's always a chance that Robinson tries the classic 10k/5k double. Given his success in those events this year, that wouldn't really surprise me. Still, not seeing him in the steeplechase would feel a little odd -- but not necessarily bad!
As for Johnsen, his 8:34 mark was a solid result that he should be happy about. It's a step in the right direction and it's good to see that he's making progress as we near the latter portion of the postseason.
Still, it's hard to get a good gauge of Johnsen until we reach the national meet. He is one of the more versatile and dynamic distance runners in the NCAA, but trying to earn an All-American finish has been a challenge for someone who is certainly capable of doing so.
Boreman Earns Huge Steeple Victory, Runs 9:42
This PAC-12 women's steeplechase field was loaded.
Oregon's Aneta Konieczek is an established star in this event and has run 9:25 during the summer months.
Oregon State's Grace Fetherstonhaugh has been excellent as of late and nearly took down Konieczek earlier this season, running 9:44. Fellow Beaver Kaylee Mitchell is also a top-tier talent and has a great history of steeple success.
But then there is Colorado's Madison Boreman, the 2nd place steeplechase finisher at the 2017 NCAA Outdoor Championships. She ran 9:46 back then, but after battling injuries in 2018 and 2019, followed by the pandemic in 2020, Boreman's comeback has been outstanding.
This past weekend, the Colorado veteran dropped an outstanding time and a noticeable PR of 9:42 en route to a PAC-12 title win over this highly talented field.
Boreman feels like one of the safest picks in the NCAA when it comes to All-American contenders this spring. She was an All-American in the mile this past winter, but the steeplechase has historically been her best event, theoretically giving her a higher ceiling.
Boreman already has tons of experience, has had success on the national stage before and should have all of the confidence in the world after taking down a strong field.
What's not to like?
As for the rest of this field, Mitchell placed 2nd overall in a time of 9:48. That's a great result and it's super encouraging, but she's run 9:48 before and if you look at her last three PAC-12 meets, that's typically when she records a PR.
To put it simply, we should've seen this coming.
Admittedly, it was a bit surprising to see Konieczek finishing 3rd in 9:50 and Fetherstonhaugh finishing 4th in 9:57. I thought Konieczek would begin her classic postseason peak now and I thought Fetherstonhaugh would be more of a contender after her great steeple race earlier in the season.
I'm not necessarily worried about either woman, I think they'll be great at the regional and national meets, but I did think that they would finish higher up.
Carson Williams Runs 8:37 Steeple at Lee
With the Southland Conference Championships happening much earlier than many of these other conference meets, Furman's Carson Williams opted to take his talents to Lee University for a "last chance" meet.
Williams took advantage of this opportunity in a major way, throwing down an 8:37 mark to comfortably defeat his competition and solidify himself as not only a national qualifying favorite, but potentially an outside All-American contender as well.
The progress has been there for Williams all year long and he has been showing a handful of subtle signs that he's in the best shape of his life. He ran 8:46 in the steeple last year and before this weekend, had already run a then-PR of 8:42.
Tack on personal bests in the 800 meters, the 1500 meters, the 3000 meters and the 5000 meters, and it's clear that Williams has elevated his fitness to an entirely new level this year.
Quick Hits
- Taylor Roe ran a converted 4:13 mark to win the BIG 12 title in the 1500 meters. This is a strong result, but it's hardly surprising for someone of her caliber. She's just working on her speed and turnover before she attacks the 5k at the regional and national meets.
- NC State's Samantha Bush (15:46) and Katelyn Tuohy (15:50) went 1-2 in the 5000 meters at the ACC Championships, each doubling back from middle distance events. I'm not sure if their times were really that big of a concern just as long as they scored enough team points. Luckily, they did just that.
- Seeing Stanford's Charles Hicks win the 10k title in the PAC-12 is hardly surprising. However, Washington's Kieran Lumb nearly getting this win was encouraging for how we view him heading into the postseason.
- New Mexico's Adva Cohen finally made her steeplechase debut at the Mountain West Championships. She ran 9:49 and earned the win, but now we have a new series of questions for her. Cohen has been very good in the 5k this season, so will she scratch the steeplechase to go all-in for that event? Or will she try the somewhat common steeplechase/5k double? Does she scratch the 5k altogether? I don't really have a feel as to which is the better decision, but the safest bet, in my mind, would be the steeple.
- California Baptist's Ivo Balabanov ran 8:39 in the steeplechase to win the WAC title this past weekend. People may not be familiar with Balabanov, but he's a quietly strong distance talent. He's run 28:43 unattached for 10,000 meters, has been hitting numerous personal bests across a variety of distances this year and has a long history of steeplechase improvement. According to World Athletics, Balabanov hadn't competed in the steeplechase since 2019, but this look like it's his best event. And all things considered, I think he still has plenty of room to improve.
- Air Force freshman Bryce Lentz ran 8:40 to win the Mountain West steeplechase. He's been fairly consistent all year, posting a pair of 8:49 marks before dropping a nine-second PR this past weekend. He also ran his 5k PR at the same meet. Lentz is still super young and I admittedly don't have too much history on him to analyze, but there is a lot more good on his resume than bad.
- Minnesota's duo of Alec Basten and Matthew Wilkinson ran 8:45 and 8:46, respectively, to take the top two spots in the BIG 10 steeplechase. When you include their top finishes in the 5k, they scored a collective total of 31 points. That is SUPER encouraging to see going into the postseason.
