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First Thoughts: 2023 Nuttycombe Invitational (Part Two)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Oct 14, 2023
- 18 min read
Updated: Oct 14, 2023
Welcome back to Part Two of our Nuttycombe Invitational analysis! We already covered the top-17 teams in the men's and women's fields from yesterday and now we're all set to break down the latter-half.
For some teams, we're going to offer just as much analysis as we did for the teams that we discussed on Friday. For others, we're going to keep things slightly shorter and a bit more brief. That's because, a) I would like to get this out at a reasonable time, and b) not every team that faded to the second-half of these results really needs an in-depth evaluation.
Women's Analysis
18. Furman Paladins (438 points)
Going into this weekend, many of us at The Stride Report were fairly high on the Furman women, especially after their win at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. But in order to truly validate that result, I was looking for something close to a top-15 finish on Friday.
That obviously didn't happen, but I would still say that their effort in Madison, Wisconsin was fairly successful! In fact, it was probably spot-on with my expectations. Allow me to explain...
The Paladins were led by Carly Wilkes (37th) who was wildly impressive. That is a huge breakout race for someone who has been decent, but never as impactful as she just was. That was an incredibly clutch run for her.
The rest of this team -- Kaylie Armitage, Abigail Robertson and Sierra Bower -- were plenty strong as well, going 71-82-84, respectively. That was a very underrated middle-lineup trio which offered stability to a team that needed it. I say that because the Paladins didn't have anyone else in the top-160 which is why they fell back a bit from expectations.
But it's important to also recognize that this team didn't have Bethany Graham! She's a two-time All-American and, generally speaking, their best scorer. If she was in this field and placed 40th overall (which is a conservative prediction), then Furman would have finished 7th overall in this field.
SEVENTH. PLACE.
In fact, even if Graham had placed 100th overall, then the Paladins still snag an 11th place finish during Friday's very muddy cross country battle.
And yes, I double checked my math on that.
In reality, this was actually an outstanding performance for the Furman women and they should be thrilled. Not only that, but we also have reason to believe that Graham will, in fact, return to this lineup later in the season.
No, this team isn't perfect, and they have to fix certain aspects of their lineup. Depth after their top-five, as we clearly saw, needs to be addressed. But all things considered, this is probably the most impressive 18th place finish I've ever seen at the Nuttycombe Invitational.
19. Harvard Crimson (454 points)
A really strong day for the Harvard women. I thought it would be a great race for them if they cracked the top-25, but they went one step further and emerged as a top-20 team.
Maia Ramsden's 6th place finish was huge, but unsurprising. Instead, it was Ella Gilson (49th) and Penelope Salmon (57th) who easily had the best races of their careers! We knew that those two women would act as great support scorers, but they cleared expectations by significant margins.
No other runner cracked the top-170 for this team and that's ultimately why those scoring efforts were diluted a bit. Even so, the Crimson took down a handful of teams that could potentially yield a handful of Kolas points.
Of course, as long as Harvard is able to crack the top-two in their region, an at-large bid to the NCAA XC Championships may not be necessary.
20. Syracuse Orange (480 points)
This was maybe a slight step back from how they performed at the Virginia Invitational, but I don't feel like this was a poor race for Syracuse. Their scoring structure was fairly unexciting, but they did enough to get by.
Savannah Roark (63rd) has been respectable this season, but has yet to be the low-stick that she was in 2022. Sophia Jacobs-Townsley (87th) had one of her better races, especially with certain women falling back just a touch.
The Orange still had all five scorers in the top-120 and there remain avenues for this team to improve moving forward. I don't know if we really learned anything new about Syracuse since their last effort, but they're at least staying in the national qualifying conversation.
21. Duke Blue Devils (508 points)
Going into Friday, I highlighted the Duke women as a team that needed to have a strong race in order to score some Kolas points. They had a very respectable effort at the Virginia Invitational, but despite the promise that they showed in Charlottesville, the Kolas scoring opportunities seemed limited.
Well, the same thing can be said about the Nuttycombe Invitational.
Amina Maatoug (11th) was the top-tier low-stick that we knew she could be. Charlotte Tomkinson (98th) and Emily Cole (107th) had respectable days while their backend scoring did enough to keep this team somewhat competitive.
A 21st place team finish is roughly on par with how they ran back in September, although this performance continues to leave the Blue Devils in the "Do they have enough Kolas points?" conversation.
22. North Carolina Tar Heels (510 points)
When the North Carolina women faded to 11th place at the Virginia Invitational, I preached patience. The Tar Heels didn't run Brynn Brown or Sasha Neglia. One of their top low-sticks, Kelsey Harrington, also had an "off" day.
Luckily, Fatima Alanis and Eva Klingbeil ran fairly well a few weeks ago. And in a scenario where everyone comes back and races at their best, this team was likely going to remain in the podium conversation.
Unfortunately, the Tar Heels were without Brynn Brown yet again on Friday. It was nice to see Alanis (41st) and Klingbeil (73rd) produce solid results, but a lot of other women on this team simply didn't run well.
That said, I struggle to believe that UNC is the 22nd-best team in this field. In fact, I refuse to believe that. They are way too talented and in many cases, too proven. After all, the absence of Brown hurts quite a bit. Even so, the Tar Heels need to pick up some positive momentum very, very soon before they head into the Southeast Regional XC Championships.
23. Portland Pilots (528 points)
This is a bit on the better side of what we expected from Portland, mainly because they found a bit more scoring support at the second spot in their lineup.
Laura Pellicoro (25th) was pretty much on par with expectations while Fleur Templier (95th) and Courtney Klatt (108th) produced decent value. The rest of this lineup fell off a bit, but for a team that wasn't on my radar, I thought they ran very well. In fact, they may have even scored a few Kolas points!
24. Providence Friars (536 points)
Welp, that wasn't great.
Kimberly May (19th) validated her breakout race from the Virginia Invitational while Shannon Flockhart (45th) was very strong yet again, emerging as a steady secondary scorer. But after that duo, every other Friar simply struggled.
Oh, and it didn't help that Jane Buckley, the team's top ace, never raced.
The Providence women are very clearly better than what they showed. That's not speculation, either. We saw them have a strong race at the Virginia Invitational without Buckley! However, things won't get any easier as they head into the postseason where they'll have to face a loaded Georgetown squad at the BIG East XC Championships.
25. New Mexico (580 points)
I loved that Nicola Jansen (21st) validated her performance from the Griak Invitational. She has truly emerged as an awesome low-stick while Klara Dess (86th) had a quietly great race as well. And sure, no one else on this team cracked the top-140, but this isn't the best version of the Lobos' lineup.
New Mexico was without Emma Heckel (an All-American) and Peyton Schieppe (a top-10 finisher at the Griak Invitational) on Friday. If those women were added to this lineup, and they're racing at just 80%, then the Lobos are definitely a better team than what they showed at Nuttycombe.
By how much? Truthfully, I don't know, but the Mountain West XC Championships should/could be a good measuring point for that.
26. Columbia Lions (606 points)
Not too many surprises here. It has been great to see Phoebe Anderson (17th) race like she has so far this fall. She has provided highly lethal scoring potency to a team that lost their true ace in Victoria Patterson earlier this year.
That said, Jordan Mathis didn't race. If she did (hopefully close to top form), then this Ivy League team likely cuts off a significant amount of points -- potentially enough to beat Duke! Don't sleep on Columbia. They're better than you think and could benefit from racing in smaller, less deep fields in the postseason.
27. Penn State Nittany Lions (608 points)
All things considered, Penn State held their own. It was encouraging to see Madaline Ullom (77th) and Kileigh Kane (83rd) both crack the top-100. By comparison, those are definitely better performances than what we saw from them at Paul Short.
There were a few women who could've been a bit better, but I don't think the Nittany Lions are walking away too disappointed by this race. For a program that is often viewed as a middle distance powerhouse, there were a few promising results from their women over 6000 meters on the grass.
28. Boise State Broncos (645 points)
Just a tough day for the Broncos. Kaiya Robertson (81st) was about as good as we expected her to be, but everyone else was just a little bit off.
Women like Autumn Ost and Yasmin Marghini are better than what they showed and I feel confident that they'll make noticeable improvements at the Mountain West XC Championships. After seeing how they ran at the Griak Invitational, I don't expect the Broncos to go away quietly in the postseason.
29. Elon Phoenix (686 points)
From a scoring structure perspective, the Elon women weren't all that different compared to what we saw from them at the Virginia Invitational. However, the mass size and overwhelming amount of talent in this field simply pushed the Phoenix back too far in the overall results. The need for more firepower was obvious.
Even so, I wouldn't totally dismiss Elon from the national qualifying conversation just yet. Yes, they are significant underdogs, but the Southeast Regional XC Championship is a meet that this team should be better in. If they can take down certain teams, then maybe the Phoenix are able to get a "push" scenario in their favor.
30. Florida State Seminoles (725 points)
Alyson Churchill's 31st place finish was a fine result, but she is definitely capable of being a far more potent talent against top individuals. She did, after all, take Kelsey Chmiel to the line at the Joe Piane Invitational and Chmiel just finished 3rd at Nuttycombe!
As for the rest of this Florida State team, they were missing a few women and their performance in South Bend from a couple of weeks ago suggested that this was about right for the 'Noles.
31. Air Force Falcons (827 points)
There was only so much that the Air Force women could do in this field. I think Halle Hamilton will have a more impactful scoring presence at the Mountain West XC Championships, but other than that, I don't have too much more to analyze.
32. Utah State Aggies (833 points)
Without Ana Weaver, the team's top low-stick, Friday was always going to be an uphill battle for this Utah State team. That said, the Aggies would have moved up a few spots, and maybe jumped into the top-30, if Weaver was racing and in top form.
33. Texas Longhorns (893 points)
Much like Utah State, the Longhorns didn't have their projected top scorer in Olivia Howell and she likely changes the final results for Texas a decent bit. We should also give credit to Beth Ramos (66th) who had a nice race, but it's going to take time for Coach Sarah Haveman to revamp this program in the same way that she did with Illinois.
Men's Analysis
18. Boise State Broncos (483 points)
Excellent race for the Boise State men! This was a much better performance than what I had in mind for them. And yes, I mentioned in our preview that they were better than some people thought, but heck, they were even better than I thought!
For a team that doesn't appear to have any focal low-stick stars, having Joe Hudson (61st), Tom Graham-Marr (75th) and Tom Patrick (78th) all finish close together in the top-80 was excellent. That's how a team should perform if there is no true ace headlining your team.
With a stable top-three, the Broncos kept things in check at the backend as Josh Dickinson (125th) and Christian Graham (148th) closed out the scoring. And while an 18th place finish isn't going to set any headlines, the Boise State men should take plenty of pride in knowing that they (likely) scored a handful of Kolas points.
Part of that is because the Broncos ran well, but the other part is because top-tier teams simply struggled, but will likely rebound at their regional meets.
19. Air Force Falcons (487 points)
I'm not quite sure what happened here.
The Air Force men were awesome at the Virginia Invitational and completely blew us away (based on our preseason expectations). Unfortunately, nearly everyone in this lineup underwhelmed on Friday with the exception of Max Sannes who earned a very solid 53rd place finish.
Make no mistake, we still got to see some respectable scoring value from Sean Maison (49th) and Eli Bennett (83rd), but with no one else in the top-130, this was a surprising "off" day for the Air Force men.
The good news is that this team, a) likely still scored a few Kolas points, and b) proved at the Virginia Invitational how dangerous they can be when they're firing on all cylinders.
And frankly, it's not like a 19th place finish is horrendous. However, I think most people probably had Air Force closer to the top-10 in their predictions than 19th.
20. Stanford Cardinal (489 points)
Outside of Ky Robinson (4th), pretty much everyone on this team struggled on Friday. And yes, you could point to Cole Sprout (84th) and say that he needs to be better (which is true), but a result like this goes far beyond one individual. It would be completely unfair to pin this entire performance on him.
It's true, Stanford didn't have Leo Young or Thomas Boyden, but the Cardinal have so much raw talent and their recruiting has always been among the most elite. In my eyes, those omissions shouldn't have been as devastating as they feel.
I'm sure there are fair and good reasons why certain men on this team just aren't running at their best. Even so, this is a long-time powerhouse. It's one thing to have an "off" day, but having four of your eight men fail to crack the top-200 spots leaves me scratching my head.
21. Iona Gaels (512 points)
Wow! Great run!
I was encouraged by what we saw from Iona at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational, but this result definitely surpasses what I thought they could do. However, what really excited me about the Gaels is the fact that they had two men in the top-40! They're developing some legitimate scoring potency.
Damien Dilcher (28th) and Joshua DeSouza (38th) had the best races of their careers, producing valuable low-stick results. Lachlan Wellington (119th) held his own while Matthew Rankin (153rd) and Nick Soldevere (173rd) closed out the scoring.
Yes, this team very clearly leaned on their two lead scorers during yesterday's race and they will now face the question of, "Can they do it again?" Regardless, the rest of this squad simply did enough to stay somewhat competitive and that's all that matters.
Iona still has to improve their depth, but the Gaels may now have a shot of getting out of the Northeast region (via at-large bid) despite Syracuse and Harvard being heavily favored as the top-two teams in the region.
22. Wisconsin Badgers (548 points)
You might look at this result and think, "Gosh, Wisconsin ran poorly." And to some extent, that would be true. However, it's important to note that the Badgers were without Bob Liking, one of the top cross country runners in the entire NCAA.
If Liking had toed the line for Friday's race and finished 10th overall, then after displacement, the Wisconsin men would have finished 8th place overall in the team race with 344 points. That would have put them ahead of Villanova.
Yes, an 8th place finish in this field still wouldn't have met expectations, but it would have been much better than the 22nd place finish that the Badgers produced.
But wait, there's more!
We also didn't see Micah Wilson race, a guy who finished 14th at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. Even if he finishes in 100th place and Liking also runs up to expectations, then this team scores around 253 points and beats Syracuse (narrowly) after factoring in displacement.
When you look at the Badgers' core scoring pieces who did run -- Jackson Sharp (5th), Rowan Ellenberg (55th) and Evan Bishop (82nd) -- it's hard to be critical of those performances. Sure, maybe Ellenberg and Bishop could have run a bit better, but I wouldn't be too upset with those results if I was a Wisconsin fan.
Having your final two scorers finish 189th and 232nd is obviously not great. Even so, this is a team that didn't run two of their top-five men and also left out a few other key names such as Matan Ivri and Adam Spencer.
Some of you may be thinking, "Hold on, couldn't you have said the same thing about Stanford who also left out two men? Why aren't they getting more grace?" Well, Stanford's absentees couldn't have made as much of an impact as Wisconsin's sidelined men could have. It's also fair to note that the core scorers for the Badgers met expectations while the same can't be said for most of Stanford's group.
In other words, put away the panic button for Wisconsin, we don't need it...yet.
23. Georgetown Hoyas (572 points)
I imagine there are some mixed feelings for Georgetown when it comes to this result.
On most occasions, a 23rd place finish at the Nuttycombe Invitational isn't anything to celebrate about. However, this was one of the most competitive years that we've ever seen from this meet as far as field size is concerned. And after such a poor outing at the Virginia Invitational, the Hoyas have to be feeling some level of renewed confidence.
Parker Stokes (41st) and Matthew Rizzo (53rd) were great, giving their team a few lead scoring sparks to rally around. Lucas Guerra (122nd) had a decent-ish day, but the rest of Georgetown's top-five placed 152nd and 213th.
It may not have been the prettiest race ever, but it was way better than what the Hoyas produced a few weeks ago. Plus, Peter Herold didn't have his best day and is likely capable of more, at least in my eyes.
24. Butler Bulldogs (582 points)
It just wasn't Butler's best day.
Florian Le Pallec (47th) had a respectable race while Matthew Forrester (101st) and William Zegarski (105th) were fairly decent as well. However, with the final two scorers placing 149th and 186th, it's clear that the Bulldogs were only going to get so far in these results.
Jesse Hamlin had a rough outing, failing to emerge as a scorer. If he's at his best, then Butler is able to boast another high-impact scorer and the complexion their final team result looks a whole lot different.
25. Michigan State Spartans (585 points)
I'll admit, I did think we were going to see more out of Michigan State on Friday.
I was a big fan of the Spartan's depth. And in a field as overwhelming as the Nuttycombe Invitational, I felt like that would help this team avoid falling back in the results.
Well, that wasn't necessarily the case.
Andrew Nolan (32nd) was a very pleasant surprise. For a team that needed some firepower this fall, his rise into a low-stick role was great to see. And truthfully, the rest of this scoring group wasn't terrible, going 123-141-143-150. Even so, outside of Nolan, there just wasn't a lot of scoring to rally around.
We should, yet again, note that Riley Hough and CarLee Stimpfel didn't race. The former actually finished runner-up in the "B" race (unattached), but Stimpfel remains absent as far as we could tell.
In other words, this team could have been as good as we thought if they had all of their top names running this past Friday.
26. Gonzaga Bulldogs (592 points)
The only team-related aspect that we need to highlight with Gonzaga is that they didn't have Kyle Radosevich in their lineup. He finished 7th at the Griak Invitational and could have been a highly impactful name. In fact, if he finished 80th overall, then after displacement, the Bulldogs would have defeated Stanford and placed 20th overall.
In other words, I'm not ready to give up on Gonzaga, although my conviction behind that statement hinges heavily on Radosevich's availability throughout the rest of this season.
Individually, seeing Wil Smith post a HUGE 9th place finish was awesome. This Gonzaga ace has been someone on the fringes of an All-American honor for the last few years, but he has now elevated his fitness to an entirely new level. I am very much hoping that he can translate this success to the national stage.
27. Washington Huskies (612 points)
Alright, I'll apologize to Luke Houser. He's really good on the grass. More specifically, he's a lot better than I thought he would be and roughly as good as Ben thought he would be.
A 16th place finish makes this Husky veteran a true low-stick. I'll be interested to see how he fares when the distance moves up to 10k, but for now, I can only nod my head and applaud.
Beyond Houser, we saw Leo Daschbach (93rd) emerge as the team's second scorer. That was one of his better races. But with Tyrone Gorze's inexperience catching up to him, and a handful of men just not running super well, Washington faded to 27th place in the final results.
It's still possible that we'll see names like Joe Waskom, Nathan Green and/or Thomas Diamond enter this lineup at the PAC-12 XC Championships. I don't know how much of a difference they'll actually make, but if the Huskies want to salvage this season, they may want to mix things up.
28. Florida State Seminoles (621 points)
David Mullarkey (14th) was outstanding. I knew he was good, even in the All-American conversation, but that result was well past what I thought he was capable of.
Going into this race, I said that Florida State flexed a complete top-five at the Joe Piane Invitational which was balanced with great firepower and respectable scoring support. However, I also noted that if just one person had an "off" day, then things could collapse fairly quickly.
Well, that piece of analysis didn't matter as pretty everyone except Mullarkey had a tough day.
That being said, the 'Noles didn't have their second low-stick, Abdirizak Ibrahim, during Friday's race. If he had run, then you're looking at the Seminoles making a massive jump that would have very likely put them in the top-20.
And sure, that still wouldn't have matched expectations, but it would have been far more indicative of the actual talent on this roster than what they showed us in Madison, Wisconsin.
29. Loyola (Ill.) Ramblers (645 points)
I truthfully don't have much to say here other than Chris Devaney (22nd) is the real deal. The Loyola men have yet another standout individual on their roster and he has looked great so far this season. He validated his performance from a few weeks ago and then some.
30. Portland Pilots (661 points)
I didn't mind giving Portland a pass at the Griak Invitational. They were without numerous men from their projected "A" lineup and Matt Strangio had an "off" day. But on Friday, Bradley Peloquin seemed to be the only glaring omission from the Pilots' top-seven, making it a bit tricky to figure out how this team faded to 30th place overall.
Daniel Abdala (95th) and Jona Bodirsky (99th) were decent, but no other Portland runner cracked the top-130 and their top ace, Matt Strangio, wasn't at his best, either.
Despite how they ended their 2022 cross country season, the Portland men are historically pretty good about peaking in the postseason. However, it's going to take a huge race (and a potential "push" scenario) that surpasses expectations at the West Regional XC Championships if this team is going to sneak into the national meet.
31. NC State Wolfpack (677 points)
Toby Gualter (51st) and Dan McGoey (65th) ran fairly well and I will definitely commend them for that. If you had told me that those two men finished where they did and you didn't tell me anything else, then I would have thought that NC State was in the top-15 of the team standings (at the very least).
However, no other Wolfpack runner finished in the top-150.
Brett Gardner (151st) had an "off" day, Ian Harrison recorded a DNF and veteran Hannes Burger wasn't in the results. If those three men who I just mentioned all ran at their best on Friday, then we are talking about an outstanding team effort from NC State.
That, of course, was not the case.
And now, after a second underwhelming performance (more so this time than at Joe Piane), the pressure is going to be on NC State to produce a big-time result at the ACC XC Championships.
32. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (706 points)
I can't help but wonder if Shay McEvoy is being redshirted this fall. I have no idea if that's actually the case, but if it is, then that would make perfect sense for a Tulsa team that is try to rebuild and develop.
When the Golden Hurricanes have reloaded their roster, they'll likely be able to introduce a top low-stick back into the fold -- and if my assessment of this scenario is accurate (it may not be), then I think that's brilliant.
33. Utah State Aggies (710 points)
Camren Todd (56th) continues to be a fairly underrated name who could be sneaky-good at the Mountain West XC Championships. Spencer Nelson (102nd) had a decent day as well. However, with no one else cracking the top-160, it was hard for the Aggies to cut down on points.
That said, Yonas Mogos didn't have his best race. He's definitely capable of more and I like to think that he would have made a fairly significant dent in this team's scoring if he was firing on all cylinders.
34. Providence Friars (755 points)
Liam Back (63rd) was very solid and Michael Morgan (97th) had one of the better races of his career so far. But with the Friars' final two scorers unable to crack the top-260, there was only so much that Providence could do. That said, Abdel Laadjel has the potential to be better and I would say the same thing about Shane Coffey.
I don't know if I would predict them to beat Georgetown or Butler at the BIG East XC Championships (and definitely not Villanova), but I do think Providence could keep things somewhat interesting in a smaller, less-deep field.
35. Ole Miss Rebels (848 points)
When it comes to Ole Miss, depth has been a challenge and something that we have mentioned repeatedly. However, Toby Gillen had a clear "off" day, Cole Bullock wasn't in the lineup and Cruz Gomez was a DNF. In other words, the entire identity of this lineup was basically gone. No, I'm not exactly excusing all of that, but I don't know how we could properly analyze this team without seeing all of their pieces together.
36. Colorado State Rams (964 points)
It happens to the best of us. Look for Mason Brown to rebound at the Mountain West XC Championships where I think he can be a fairly competitive individual despite his tough outing on Friday.
