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D1 Outdoor Entry Evals
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- May 20, 2021
- 8 min read
There's no time to waste. The scratches and accepted entries for the NCAA regional meets are now out and there is a lot to talk about. Below, I briefly cover the notable developments and give my thoughts on certain event choices. Let's dive right into it...
NOTE: Coaches will review these entries to validate or note any discrepancies. Having an "A" next to someone's name denotes that they will be considered for the national meet and essentially indicates that an athlete intends to run that event. Having an "S" next to someone's name means that the athlete is expected to be scratched out of that event.
Cooper Teare: Scratching 1500 For 5k
Cole Hocker: Scratching 800 For 1500/5k Double
Let's just get this one out of the way -- Cooper Teare scratching the 1500 for the 5k seems to make the most sense. Not only is he more of a longer distance runner, but he still has the speed to win if everything comes down to a finishing kick. Not only that, but a lot of top names like Kurgat and Mantz scratched out of the event, leaving a less title challengers for Teare to battle. On top of that, guys like Kiptoo, Brandt and a few others will be doubling back from the 10,000 meters, so Teare will be one of the few fresh athletes in the title chase when it comes to Nationals.
On paper, this was a great move.
There was a lot of speculation that Cole Hocker could potentially double, but I didn't see that happening. Why? Because the Olympic Trials are a week after the NCAA Championships. That fact alone made it tricky to predict this, but the double still wasn't unreasonable. With Oregon trying to maximize team points and Hocker having already accomplished the mile/3k double at the indoor national meet, this opportunity does make sense.
Athing Mu: Scratching 800 For 400
Sage Hurta: Scratching 800 For 1500
I think we were optimistic that Mu would run the 800, and I think there was a much stronger chance of her actually running it compared to the indoor track season, but this is the right move when it comes to scoring points and maximizing rest.
As for Hurta, she'll likely run the 800 at the Olympic Trials, but the 1500 was her best chance at a national title, even with Mu scratching from the 800. I do, however, wonder if the possible threat of Mu entering the 800 meters played a role in Hurta scratching the 800 and going all-in for the 1500. That said, I'd imagine that that was probably not the case considering that she's the indoor mile champion from this past winter.
The 1500 is Hurta's event, although Krissy Gear will now be just as fresh for her rematch against Hurta in this year's 1500, so that's something to keep in mind.
Edwin Kurgat, Conner Mantz, Abdi Nur, Blaise Ferro & Adriaan Wildschutt: Scratching 5k For 10k
I've always been someone who thinks that scratching the 5k and going all-in on the 10k didn't make much sense. However, the more I think about it, I like this move for all of these guys. Doing the 10k/5k double means they'd have to do that twice: once at the regional meets and once at the national meet. With the Olympic Trials a week after the national meet, that amount of high-level racing could completely wipe out the reserves for the Americans of this group.
That said, I am surprised that Wildschutt scratched out of the 5k. He's someone who has largely been on cruise control for most of his races and he's going to run fast no matter what race he toes the line for or how often he's competing.
A similar argument could be made for Kurgat who held his own against Kiptoo and the Oregon Ducks a few weeks back in the 5k. In a year where the 10k is so insanely deep, I would've thought that Kurgat would pursue the event that (I think) is his best distance, the 5000 meters.
Lauren Ellsworth: Scratching 800 For 1500
This one surprised me quite a bit. I understand that the women's 800 is incredibly stacked and super top-heavy, but Ellsworth was ranked much higher in the West region 800 meters compared to the West region 1500 meters (where she owns a seasonal best time of 4:16).
Don't get me wrong, Ellsworth is still an accomplished 1500 meter runner and 4:16 isn't a bad time by any means. However, you would think that a seasonal best of 2:03 and a personal best of 2:02 would be enough of an incentive for the BYU runner to go after the half-mile distance.
That said, her 800 speed could be super useful in a tactical setting -- something that is more likely to happen in the regional meets than not.
Cade Bethmann: Scratching 800 For 1500
This was an interesting decision. The Ole Miss ace was ranked at East Region #22 in the 800 meters and East Region #27 in the 1500 meters. The 1500 is simply deeper and more top-heavy, both in the East region and throughout the entire NCAA. The 800, however, isn't quite as strong and I thought Bethmann would have had a greater chance of success at the half-mile distance compared to the metric mile.
Now, that said, his times of 1:48 and 3:41 are fairly similar and one mark isn't dramatically better than the other. Still, I'd be curious to know why Bethmann chose the 1500 over the 800 despite a few signs suggesting that the alternative may have been better.
At the same time, I like the fact that the Ole Miss ace has been super consistent at the 1500 distance this year and his progression has been encouraging. I think he can hold his own and make it to the national meet -- something that I'm sure he and Coach Van Hoy saw as well.
Julia Heymach: Scratching 800 For 1500/5k Double
Ella Donaghu: Scratching 800 For 1500/5k Double
I absolutely love this move for both Heymach and Donaghu. Despite running 2:02 for 800 meters, Heymach looked incredible in the final moments of the 5000 meters of the PAC-12 Championships. If she is able to replicate that kind of performance, I could see her finishing as an All-American.
At the same time, Heymach is more of a middle distance specialist and just like Ellsworth, her speed could be useful in a sit-and-kick affair. That seems like a space where she could really dominate in the postseason. And if even she doesn't, Heymach still has the 5k that she can lean back on.
The exact same mindset can be said for Donaghu. Despite some suggestions that she should go all-in for the 5000 meters, it's important to remember that she was an All-American in the 1500 meters back in 2019. Even if she can't replicate that success, she'll still have the 5k to fall back on where she's a top seed and her 1500 prowess should allow her to hold her own in a tactical setting.
Overall, I see fairly minimal downside for both of these Stanford women.
Ben Veatch & Ian Shanklin: Scratching 10k For 5k
This one surprised me a bit for Shanklin. Both Veatch and Shanklin seem to be better over the longer distances and they both just won conference titles in the 10k, beating out respectable and underrated fields. However, Veatch is the one who has had more success in the postseason over the 5000 meters.
Shanklin has been great during cross country and has had solid, but relatively modest success in the 5000 meters. Veatch, meanwhile, is coming off of an indoor track season where he ran 13:33 (5k) to finish 8th at the NCAA Indoor Championships. That was his second All-American honor in the 5k.
For Veatch, everything in his history says that he should go for the 5k. But for Shanklin? Well, this left me scratching my head just a little bit. His time of 29:11 may not be quite as fast as a few others in the East region 10k field, but he's a solid runner and super consistent. He knows how to position himself in championship field and I think he would've done well in a regional setting for the 10,000 meters.
His 5k time of 13:48 is respectable, but even if Shanklin does run a personal best, there's no guarantee that he would even make it to the national meet. Of course, the same could be said about the 10,000 meters...so maybe I just talked myself into a corner here. But hey, what do I know?
For Shanklin, this might be a tricky balance of gauging his chances of qualifying for the national meet vs his chances of realistically becoming an All-American. I'm not sure which option he chose, but if I had to guess, it was the former.
Krissy Gear: Scratching Steeplechase For 1500
I think this is a great move for Gear. The steeplechase is going to feature all of the top seeds except for her, meaning that the steeplechase is going to be just as deep and just as top-heavy as the national rankings suggested it would be.
Gear could have placed anywhere from 2nd to 8th place in the steeplechase, but her decision to go for the 1500 meters makes me think that she can finish anywhere from 2nd to 4th place. She has a much higher floor in the 1500 compared to the steeplechase and I think the fact that she won't have to run the DMR the day before the 1500 final (unlike the indoor national meet) could allow her to be more competitive with Hurta.
Not only that, but we already saw Gear take down Orton in a tight battle earlier this season. And as we all know, Orton is at an elite level of fitness right now.
If Gear was able to take down Orton, then could she take down the Colorado veteran in the 1500 meters? It certainly seems possible, and that's why I like her decision to scratch out of the steeplechase for her primary event.
Michaela Meyer: Scratching 1500 For 800
This was an impossible decision that didn't have a right choice, although I think the 1500 would have been the better choice for Meyer. She's run 4:09 in the event, is ranked near the top of the NCAA for the distance and has shown some consistency in this race.
That said, running 2:01 four separate times this spring has been beyond impressive. That kind of consistency makes me feel confident that she'll be an All-American in the 800 meters this year. It's nice to run that fast once or twice in a season, but posting that kind of mark FOUR times is what justifies this decision. Meyer can handle multiple rounds with ease and that makes me feel better about her chances in the 800 meters.
Would I have liked to see her in the 1500? Yes, but she couldn't exactly go wrong by picking the 800 meters.
Katie Wasserman: Scratching 1500 For 5k
This is another one of those instances where the athlete couldn't go wrong with whichever event they chose. This season, Wasserman has been equally as good in the 1500 meters as she has been in the 5000 meters. Whichever event she chose wasn't going to make a dramatic difference on her postseason success, although I think the scratches in the 1500 would have left her with a better chance of an All-American finish compared to the 5k.
Even so, I'd actually like to think that the 1500/5k double would have been the best option for her. What does she have to lose? She's equally strong in both events (time-wise) and if the 1500 didn't work out then she'd have the 5k to fall back on.
Admittedly, that's a lot of racing, but with the incredible endurance-based strength that Wasserman has developed over the year, paired with her underrated consistency, I think the double would have been a good option for her now that I think back on it.
