The Group Chat: D2 Outdoor Entry Evaluations

Entries for the NCAA D2 Outdoor Championships are now out! After a few interesting and surprising entry decisions, our TSR team decided to take a look at the declarations and give their reactions to the event choices that we saw from a handful of top athletes.

Let's begin...

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Luke Julian is the first big name not to be found declared in an event that we have primarily seen him entered in. Julian has opted to race solely the 5k at the NCAA Championships and forgo the 1500 entirely. Is this the right move for him?

Eric: I’d say this is the right call for Julian. Despite having one of the top mile seed time at the NCAA indoor meet, he really wasn’t ever in it, finishing 4th. Having run 13:52 at sea level for the 5000 meters puts him in the mix of contenders. Assuming some of the top names take on the 5k/10k double, I like his chances of going into this race fresh.

Nate: I don’t know if "right" is the word I’d opt for here, but at the very least, I do think it’s a good choice. Just looking back at Julian’s performance at Indoor Nationals, I think he had bitten off more than he could chew. Opting to focus on one event this time around comes off as a better decision to me.

Not that there should be any doubt about Julian’s ability in the 5k, but I can’t help but wonder why he opted for the longer event. The only thing I can think of is along the lines of what Eric said -- that Julian is hoping to pick off the runners coming in with tired legs while he’s fresh. His resume in the middle distances proves that he has more than enough leg speed to do so and his mark puts him in the thick of things, so it’s definitely possible.

John: I think this is the best choice for Julian as he heads into the NCAA weekend. There are plenty of athletes who are opting to finish the meet with a 5k after a big workload and it’s worth noting that Julian might actually be better at the 5k distance than he was at the 1500/mile over the course of the last few years. Running 13:52 straight up is impressive in and of itself, but what makes him a threat is his closing speed. Having run 3:42 for 1500, if the race comes down to a sprint, there’s a real chance that Julian will find himself in the mix.

The Flangan sisters did the same thing as Julian on the women’s side. Eilish has opted for the 3k steeple and 5000 while her Roisin has entered in just the 5000. Are you at all surprised by this move?

Eric: No, Eilish should run away with the steeple while the sisters will look to go 1-2 in the 5k. They both own the top time in either event (Eilish in the steeple and Roisin in the 5k) so having Eilish double back in the 5k to push her sister makes a lot of sense in my mind. What a fairy tale ending that would be if they both win a national title...

Nate: This isn’t much of a surprise. Eilish owns the 3k steeple as far as anyone should be concerned, and both sisters hold the top-two spots in the 5k, so it makes sense for Roisin to focus her efforts there. There's no harm in Eilish joining her as it’d allow them to work off of one another.

John: I am actually surprised by this. I thought that Roisin was going to opt for the 1500/5000 route in an effort to help her team's scoring title chances. Part of me wonders if this is an attempt to let Stephanie Cotter have a clean run at the 1500 title which would be her fourth title in as many attempts over the 1500/mile discipline. That being said, there was likely a conversation about all of this beforehand and it is likely going to work out exactly as they intend to.

There are currently seven men (Laguera, Ko, Harding, Chada, Woldemichael, Jones, Stimpfel) inside the top-17 of the 5000 who have opted for the 10k/5k double. Who made the smartest decision, who made the worst decision?

Eric: Well, Marcelo Laguera has waited a long time for this moment. Another crack at the same two events he ran in 2019 at the NCAA Outdoor Championships where he finished as an All-American in both events has me thinking that he made the right move. Fitness wise I think he’s in about the same shape that he was in two years ago...it’s more the lack of races since then that could lead to his downfall. However, he’s made the smart move.

I really do think CarLee Stimpfel would’ve been better off doing just one event. He ran both the 3k and 5k at the NCAA Indoor Championships and walked away without an All-American honor. If he’d have run just one, I think he could’ve done it. With him never having raced at an outdoor national meet before, he should’ve made the smart choice and just concentrate on one event.

Nate: I’ll start with the worst decision in my opinion and for me that’s Blake Jones. Don’t get me wrong, Jones has had a tremendous year going all the way back to the fall cross country season. He’s been maintaining that momentum and riding the lightning ever since, but by opting for the double, he’s hurting his odds at a title he has a legitimate chance at one in the 5k.

It’s not that he can’t handle the double, but more the opposition is too high-caliber to effectively double and win the national title in the 5000 meters. He’s top-five in the 5k, but sits outside of the top-10 for the 10k. Why not take a chance on yourself with fresh legs?

As for who made the best decision? Isaac Harding. A double runner-up finish to Noble at Indoor Nationals has to have Harding hungry for a title. He’s proven that he can handle doubling up in championship settings, although the distance he’ll have to go is a lot further this time around the oval.

Even then, he still top seed in the 5k, and won’t have to deal with Noble more than once. That’s not to ignore the 10k field, but with his proverbial kryptonite out of the way, Harding should be able to work around this field a bit better. He has the third-best raw time for the event, too.

John: I personally think Enael Woldemichael has made one of the better decisions entering both of these events. Given his success on the grass in the 10k and his immediate success on the track in that same discipline, I don’t think he’s going to have much issue coming back for the 5k two days later. In 2019, if you had told me that Woldemichael would be an underdog in either of these races, I don’t think I’d have believed you. But that seems to be the case right now for the Laker athlete. I’ll be extremely interested to see how he races the 10k with the 5k being his better event.

With the 5000 meters at the end of the meet, it’s hard to say who made the "worst" decision by entering both, but I think both CarLee Stimpfel and Blake Jones have a better shot at being an All-American in the 5k than in the 10k. Sure, this comes on the heels of Stimpfel finishing 10th and Jones finishing 12th in the 5000 meters during indoors, so it might make more sense for them to pursue the 10k.

Still, they both own top-five marks in the 5k while being outside of the top-16 in the 10k. Their most recent 5k marks suggests that they could be faster in the 10k, but to what extent is yet to be seen...especially if they are racing for 2nd place when the gun goes off.

It’s a star studded affair in the women’s 5k with the Flanagan sisters both opting for the race, Jennifer Sandoval, and Celine Ritter also have times under 16:00 this season. Ida Narbuvoll has run 16:03 and then there’s a 12-second gap. Give me a name (outside of these five) who’s most poised to finish in the top-five.

Eric: Stephanie Parsons' name is one that comes to mind. She will look to go out in a big way as she’s headed to New Mexico in the fall. She turned in a solid performance in the 1500 last week taking the win at the Toledo Rocket Invite in a time of 4:17.

I know, I know -- this question is about the 5k, but the result shows that she’s fit and ready to roll. She did run a 16:18 (5k) earlier in the season and really competed well in that race, so with the momentum she has, I don’t see why she can’t be up with the big dogs in the 5k.

Nate: Florence Uwajaneza. Are we just going to forget the 16:10 she dropped in a runner-up finish at the indoor national meet? She may be entered to do the 5k/10k double, but with a full day in between to rest, I’m certain that she can handle it, or at least enough to come back from the 10k and crack the top-five in the 5k.

John: I’d love to talk more about Parsons and how well she’s running right now, but for the sake of this article I’ll bring up PJ English. I think she’s got a legitimate shot at cracking the top-five. She scratched the 1500 after running a personal best of 4:26 at the NSIC Championships where she finished 2nd. She has run 16:20 this season for 5k after picking the event up just this season. The decision to have fresh legs has me guessing that she’ll be looking to run with the lead pack from the get-go and a top-five finish likely comes with that.

Taylor Stack and Christian Noble are the only two entered in the steeple and 5k. In two extremely loaded fields, did they both make the right call?

Eric: Yes, even though the fields are loaded, these guys want to compete and that’s a quality that you can’t teach. With a day in between events and a wealth of racing experience, it's clear that these guys can handle it. The steeple race between these two should be one of the highlights on the men’s side in my opinion.

Nate: I hate to come off as a broken record, but I have to echo Eric’s point of view here. At this point, I don’t think we can question any decision Noble makes as he’s proven time and time again that if he puts himself out there, he’s going to make something happen. As for Taylor Stack, he’s an established veteran in his own right. Like Eric said, they’re both amongst the most competitive runners in both fields and arguably the NCAA, and they’re both getting a full day of rest in between. They’re likely going to be more than fine.

John: Yeah, we are all pretty much agreeing in unison here. This double is something that I think both athletes can handle, and will handle relatively well. Noble has already won two races in a 48-hour span, and there’s no reason to believe that he can’t do it again. I also think Stack has improved his stock quite a bit after running 13:48 in California recently.

I do think that the steeple final will be a really tough effort, but the 5k won’t be anything that these two haven’t seen before. They’ll be ready to rip 12.5 laps in their final collegiate race.

Of the top-17 women in the 1500, five are opting for a double at the NCAA Championships (Parsons, Novak, Ritter, O’Malley, Cusick). Whether it’s the 800 or the 5000, who is primed for the most success next weekend?

Eric: I like Celine Ritter. She opted to only run the 3k at the indoor national meet which proved to be the smart move as she won her first national title. This time around, she’s prepared for a double given the fact that these should be her last two races in a Flames singlet. I think this past weekend served as a wake up call as she finished 3rd in the 1500 meters. With her experience, she’ll make the necessary adjustment and be ready for Nats.

Nate: I almost feel like I’m copping out of this by picking Parsons, but hear me out. First, there’s the most glaring point of Parsons being the top seed in the 1500. Then there’s the matter of her being within the top-10 of the 5k already. Sure, there’s a sizable-looking gap between her and the top-five, but I don’t think that gap is as big as it seems.

My reasoning for that is because Parsons doesn’t just run fast but also she also scores. Every race she’s been in this year has ended with a win other than only one exception, and that was a 5k that ended with a runner-up finish for the Edinboro veteran. If anyone can make the most of their double, it’s Parsons in my eyes.

John: I’m picking O’Malley here. A big reason why is because she’s also attempting the 1500/5k double. It’s a safe double as the 5k is the last event of the weekend for distance athletes and if the legs don’t have it, they just don’t have it. That being said, I don’t think that will apply to O’Malley. The sophomore has shown off her range this season and after a successful mile/3k double at the NCAA Indoor Championships, I think there’s another successful double coming her way in Michigan.

Give us your biggest sleeper picks heading into the NCAA Championships...

Eric: For the men, I’ll take Blake Jones from Illinois-Springfield. He was an indoor national qualifier, but had an off day where he finished in 12th. Even so, he has used that momentum to have a breakthrough outdoor season where he finally broke 14:00 in the 5k and eventually ran 29:15 in the 10k, not to mention claiming two GLVC title in the 1500 and 5k on the first weekend of May. I think he’s one who is finally ready for the spotlight and isn’t currently getting the attention he deserves.

On the women’s side, I’ll take Elysia Burgos from Southwest Baptist. She has shot up the rankings due to her most recent performance in the 1500 where she took down reigning indoor 3k national champ in Celine Ritter and GVSU’s Hannah Roeske. The Liberty Invite proved to be exactly what she needed as she now sits at NCAA #3 in the 1500 due to this last minute performance.

Nate: On the men’s side of things, I really like Afewerki Zeru as a sleeper pick. Zeru managed to get into the indoor national meet where he hit what seemed to be a bit of a learning curve, but I imagine that’s over and done with. Zeru has been rapidly improving and finally earned a shot on the national stage during outdoors, so I think he could shake things up in the upper echelons of the field.

For the women, I’m keeping an eye on Hailey Streff. She has really come into her own this calendar year, starting during indoors and carrying that rhythm into this outdoor season. She’s notched PR’s across the board and most recently has taken a hiatus from her primary event in the 1500, opting to run the 800 more often at recent meets, including the RMAC Championships where she won the conference crown over top-tier names.

Streff is moving back up to her primary event for the national meet and I think she’ll do well. I feel like the time away from the 1500 distance and the improvements she made outside of it will translate over better than expected. Even if she is ranked at NCAA #10, I think that says a lot considering that that mark was from March.

John: I’ll take Ryan Riddle for the men. I’m not sure how much of a sleeper he might be, but like Luke Julian, he’s only entered in the 5000 for the NCAA Championships. He was one of the best milers during the indoor season and moving up to the 5k has not decreased his chances of being an All-American. Expect an all-out effort for the title from this man when the race starts, and if it’s down to a kick, then Riddle’s chances only improve.

On the women’s side, I really like Fatima Alanis of Queens (N.C.). The freshman has only gotten better every time she’s toed the line and now holds personal bests of 16:20 (5k) and 35:17 (10k). She’s opted for the double with the 10k and the 5k and I think she outperforms her seed time in both races. Ultimately, I think she can walk away with an All-American honor, if not two of them.