The Group Chat: Regional Declaration Predictions (Men)

The NCAA Regional Championships are fast approaching, meaning that many of the nation's best collegiates will have a few interesting conundrums in terms of which events they should want to pursue in the postseason.

Below, our TSR crew analyzed a few tough decisions and gave their predictions as to which events these athletes should and will attempt at the regional and national meets. This time, we're talking about the men...

Cole Hocker + Cooper Teare (Oregon): 1500 or 5k

Ben: Garrett and I talked about this a few weeks ago, and I’ll stick with my original answer. Teare in the 5k and Hocker in the 1500, although I could see Hocker trying to double.

Hocker proved during the indoor season that he is more than capable of winning in a variety of ways in the mile while Teare has been on fire this year, only losing to Hocker. While Teare has run quicker in the 1500, I like Hocker’s ability to close better than Teare’s and in a championship race, that often comes down to who has the best kick, so I trust the youngster a bit more.

As for the 5k, Teare’s ability to hang with a quick pace and still kick is much more advantageous. He has proven that he can beat Kiptoo and Kurgat already and those will be his main two challengers in the 5k. While you can make a solid argument that Hocker could do the same in the 5k, I like Hocker’s chances better in the 1500 than Teare.

Not only that, but with Oregon trying to score as many points as possible, it makes sense to split these two up to maximize the potential of the Ducks' team score.

Maura: Ben’s analysis of this is very detailed and he has won me over to Teare in the 5k and Hocker in the 1500. Both races are deep from top to bottom with experienced guys and certain names who are on the rise. Teare has proven himself numerous times over the longer distances during his career as a Duck and Hocker is making a name for himself in the middle distance events.

However, both could shock us and contest the 1500/5k double. The NCAA Championships will be held on their home track and they have shown that they have the talent to run a lot of miles in a short amount of time.

Plus, I would love to see a rematch between Yared Nuguse, Teare and Hocker in the 1500.

Wesley Kiptoo (Iowa State): 5k, 10k and/or Steeplechase

Ben: Even after his impressive triple at the BIG 12 Championships, Kiptoo is best served doing the traditional 5k/10k double. He remains the title favorite (or at least a title favorite) in the 10k despite Mantz running 27:41. While he might be the title favorite in the steeplechase if he does enter, running the steeple complicates doubling in either the 5k or the 10k. There is a reason we saw plenty of athletes choose the 5k/10k double, and I predict that we will see Kiptoo follow that same road even if it doesn’t necessarily produce the most amount of points possible for Iowa State.

Maura: There’s no way Kiptoo will run the steeplechase/5k/10k triple in the next two meets as that would be way too much across across a few weeks. The Iowa State distance ace has the potential to be crowned a double champion if he contests the 5k and 10k, a very doable double for the indoor 5k champion and cross country bronze medalist.

With the way Kiptoo likes to run, out front and in charge, if he can just hold on when facing the likes of men from BYU, NAU, Oregon, and Stanford, then two outdoor titles could be his to claim.

Casey Clinger (BYU): 1500 or 5k

Ben: This is a pretty easy answer for me, 5k. While Clinger has run some impressive 1500/mile times, there are so many runners across the country who have run under 3:40 this year. This Cougar star clearly has the strength and the speed to be very competitive in the 5k at the national stage, and I anticipate the BYU coaching staff scratching him from the 1500 because of his potential in the 12.5 lap race.

Maura: Clinger is a much better distance runner than middle distance runner. Don’t get me wrong, two sub-3:40 1500’s in back-to-back weekends is great. However, given his 13:24 (5k) PR from early April, there’s more chances for Clinger to stand higher on the podium in the longer event. That said, his 1500 speed will surely come in handy as he will probably need it if the race results in an all-out sprint over the final few laps.

Zach Facioni (Wake Forest): 1500 or 5k

Thomas Ratcliffe (North Carolina): 1500 or 5k

Ben: Facioni will absolutely be in the 5k. He has beaten Robert Brandt over this distance and took Adriaan Wildschutt to the line at the ACC Championships. The Demon Deacon has been sensational this year in the 5k and that is what he will compete in at regionals.

As for Ratcliffe, he has a much more difficult decision. I was leaning towards the 1500 despite how deep the field is until ACC’s where he finished 6th. I still think the 1500 might be his best event, but with the overwhelming quality that we have seen in that event this season, I think his best bet will be in the 5k.

Remember, he was 3rd at the NCAA Outdoor Championships in this event back in 2019 behind only Morgan McDonald and Grant Fisher. He will be facing stiff competition either way, but the 5k might be his best path to an All-American finish.

Maura: Facioni and Ratcliffe should both contest the 5k given their resumes and recent results.

Facioni’s 13:30 puts him in a better spot than his 3:39 given the depth in the 1500. Now, yes, the 5k is just as top-heavy, but there’s more potential for the Wake Forest sophomore to squeeze into the top-eight. He did just finish one second behind Adriaan Wildschutt at the ACC Championships in the 5k and is coming off of some great results from cross country meets from this past winter and some regular season track meets from this spring.

Ratcliffe always seems to put everything together right at the very end when it comes to running a full and healthy season. As Ben mentioned, Ratcliffe was 3rd in the 5k at the 2019 NCAA Outdoor Championships and obviously has the talent to replicate that, even with the star-studded field that he will face. He’s run 13:36 this season, only four seconds off of his PR from 2019.

Duncan Hamilton (Montana State): 1500 or Steeplechase

Ben: I might sound like a broken record at this point, but I think Hamilton should skip the 1500 for the steeplechase. As mentioned before, the 1500 is insanely deep, and I think the Montana State runner’s 1500 speed will come in handy in the steeplechase. His converted 3:37 that he just ran is a great sign for his 1500 hopes, but his loss to Grijalva makes me think he would not be able to compete with the top middle-distance runners in the country.

Hamilton has won both of his steeplechases this year and has run 8:41 (converted) which leads me to believe that he has a great chance of scoring in the steeple. And with his quick 1500 time, he should be able to close better than almost anyone in the country.

Maura: I agree with Ben on this one. Hamilton clearly has seen success as of late in the mile and 1500, but it probably won’t be enough to take on the likes of men from Oregon, Alabama, Ole Miss and Villanova. It’s also tough to make a case in the 1500 for someone who didn’t make it out of the mile prelims at the indoor national meet.

Now, as for Hamilton’s chances in the steeplechase, I think that’s where he will find himself seeing the most success. With an altitude-converted 8:41 from the BIG Sky Championships, Hamilton is certainly capable of running fast and has excellent closing speed if it becomes a kicker’s race.

Colton Johnsen (Washington State): 1500, 5k and/or Steeple

Ben: Boy, this is a tough one. Johnsen has run strong times in each of these events and would be a strong candidate to qualify for NCAA’s in all of them. I’ll stick to my guns and rule out the 1500 despite his 3:40 time.

The Washington State runner just ran 13:39 to finish 5th at the PAC-12 Championships, bettering his 6th place run in the steeplechase. While Johnsen does own an 8:42 PR in the steeplechase, I’ll go with the 5k because of his superior finish at last weekend’s conference championship.

With fast times in all of these events, the deciding factor has to be the ability to finish and place well in a strong field. Clearly, Johnsen is able to do that in the 5k where he only lost to Hocker, Teare, Hicks, and Herrera all of whom are nearly locks to be an All-American in whatever event(s) they choose.

Maura: I really like the momentum Johnsen has going into the championship portion of the season. Based on his development since the indoor season and the notable names that he has taken down recently, I think Johnsen’s best case for All-American honors would be the steeplechase/5k double. Even though he might not be a favorite to win either event, his 8:42 (steeple) and 13:39 (5k) personal best puts him alongside his top competitors. Who knows? Anything could happen on race day...