The Group Chat: Regional Declaration Predictions (Women)

The NCAA Regional Championships are fast approaching, meaning that many of the nation's best collegiates will have a few interesting conundrums in terms of which events they should want to pursue in the postseason.

Below, our TSR crew analyzed a few tough decisions and gave their predictions as to which events these athletes should and will attempt at the regional and national meets. Today, we're talking about the women...

Michaela Meyer (Virginia): 800 or 1500

Garrett: This is one of those situations where I think Meyer SHOULD pursue the 1500 meters, but will instead pursue the 800 meters. The 1500 is much less crowded compared to the 800 meters and equally as deep. However, the 1500 could see a ton of scratches and even without those scratches, Meyer’s speed still makes her a threat in a tactical 1500. The problem, however, is that her unreal consistency in the 800 this season will likely influence her to pursue the half-mile event despite that national field being the deepest and the most top-heavy in the entire NCAA.

Sam: Look, if your name isn’t “Mu” or “Hurta” then you should opt for an event that’s not the 800 if you can. Meyer has certainly shown plenty of ability over two laps, but unless something beyond absurd happened, she’s not coming away with a title. While that argument is still fairly applicable in the 1500, it’s slightly less true. NCAA finals are known for their sometimes strange tactics and if I’m Meyer, I see myself with better odds in the 1500. Plus, I like her closing speed in a race that tends to be more tactical where we could see a slow start turn into a fast final lap or two.

Maura: I’m going to piggy-back off of what Garrett and Sam have already pointed out about Meyer’s chances in the 1500. I like the consistency Meyer has had since transferring to Virginia from Delaware at the beginning of the 2020-2021 academic year. The 800 has the potential to see Athing Mu run away with the title while Sage Hurta and Aalyiah Miller will likely duke it out for 2nd place (if Hurta run the 800). Meyer’s 4:09 immediately puts her into the conversation to win the individual title and with her 2:01 closing speed, she could rise to the top in her first national meet experience.

Krissy Gear (Arkansas): 1500 or Steeplechase

Garrett: For me, this is fairly easy. The steeplechase is going to have women like Wayment, Rainsberger, Kimeli, Konieczek, Steelman and maybe Jennings in the field and truthfully, I don’t see many of those women scratching. However, the 1500 could have so many more scratches. Women like Meyer and/or Hurta could go for the 800 (unlikely, but possible) while women like Orton, Henes and Wasserman will/could move up to the 5k. On paper, it makes more sense for Gear to go all-in for the 1500 meters...although her success in the steeple is relatively more impressive, so I think she’ll end up choosing that event.

Sam: Like Garrett said, this is an easy call. The 1500 is going to see a lot more potential scratches from women opting for the 800 or steeple (or only the 5k), which makes Gear potentially the top-ranked runner in the field. Sure, she’s also sitting at NCAA #4 in the steeplechase, but Wayment looks like she's at aa level above the rest. There’s also an added bonus that Gear could come away with an Olympic Trials qualifying mark in the 1500 if the racing gets fast, similar to what happened in 2019.

Maura: Garrett and Sam took the words right out of my mouth, so I’ll keep this brief. Gear has been on a tear since the indoor season, running a stellar 4:31 mile. She has since backed up that performance with a 4:09 effort in the 1500. Even after earning a 9:38 steeplechase PR in a race where she bided her time and passed Joyce Kiemli in the last lap, Gear’s best chance of standing atop the podium comes in the 1500. The steeplechase is a more focused event than the 1500 given the technicality and won’t see nearly as many scratches. As the indoor mile runner-up, Gear should go for middle distance redemption.

Ella Donaghu (Stanford): 1500 or 5k

Maura: This is a hard one for Donaghu because both the 1500 and 5k fields are top-heavy. Even though Donaghu has been an All-American before in the 1500, finishing 6th in 2019, and owns a PR of 4:11, the fact that numerous ladies have run 4:11 or faster this season doesn’t bode well for Donaghu who has only gone 4:14. The 5k might be her best bet given her recent successes across longer distances -- see cross country performances for evidence. Even though she has only contested the 5k twice in her career, both of which have come this season, she has the racing tactics to vie for a podium finish.

Garrett: I may have said the 1500 in the past, but Donaghu has enough raw fitness and endurance to find major success in the 5000 meters, a race which may be aggressively paced from the gun at the NCAA Championships. After all, she has run 15:29 this spring. Luckily for her, she is tactically savvy and her 1500 prowess makes her a threat if the 5k at the national meet turns into a sit-and-kick affair. That’s why I have the Stanford star choosing the 5k and leaving behind the distance that gave her first rise to prominence.

Sam: Another no brainer. There are 20 women ahead of Donaghu in the 1500 and only 4 in the 5k. Let’s look at those four. Orton might run the 1500. Wayment will almost certainly contest the steeple. Chelangat will likely run the 10k before the 5k. Henes is highly ranked in the 1500, but could just focus on the 5k. There is a great chance that Donaghu will be either the first or second-ranked woman entering this race completely fresh. As much as I’d love to see her replicate that 6th place finish in the 1500 from 2019, I don’t see a reason why she would in 2021.

Athing Mu (Texas A&M): 400 or 800

Maura: I’m really hoping to see Mu contest the 800. After she opted to focus on the 400 during the indoor season due to optimizing rest before the 4x400, I want to see how Mu does against the best of the NCAA. Yes, she is clearly on a different level given her 1:57, but how will the rest of the field fare with her in the race? Will they go with her? Will they sit back and let her do her thing up-front?

Sam: Mu is going to run the 400. Why? Well, she originally opted for the 400 meters during indoors based on her coach’s guidance, knowing that the 2021 season was going to be a long one. That’s not going to change at the NCAA Championships. Sure, she could probably win a national title, but she could also do that in the 400 (and 4x400). Furthermore, think about what’s taking place the weekend after the national meet -- the Olympic Trials. If you asked any Olympian if they’d rather win a NCAA title or make the Olympics, they’d probably just laugh. The Olympic Trials are potentially three rounds of highly competitive, tactical racing that Mu needs to be fresh for in order to make the team. It’s not worth potentially hindering those chances if she wants to be in Japan this summer.

Garrett: I honestly have no idea. The logical move is the 400, but Coach Pat Henry has been talking about putting Mu in the best position for major success and I think that means putting her in the 800 meters. She will be an overwhelming favorite to win a national title in that event and I don’t think anyone is even close to challenging her. After having her go after the 400 and 4x400 during the NCAA Indoor Championships, I have to think that the Texas A&M coaching staff will switch things up and give Mu a chance at winning NCAA gold in her best event.

Sage Hurta (Colorado) 800 or 1500

Garrett: I just don’t see why Hurta would pursue the 800 over the 1500. There’s a chance that Mu runs the 800 meters this spring at the national meet and even if she doesn’t, then there is still plenty of competition for Hurta in the half-mile distance. Barton has also run 2:00 this spring and Miller already did that in the winter (and this season). Meanwhile, the 1500 may see scratches from Orton and Gear, two women who could end up being the biggest competition for Hurta. Based on scratches and national leads, I just don’t see why this Colorado veteran wouldn’t run the 1500 meters, especially if she’s already going to run the 800 meters at the Olympic Trials.

Sam: I feel pretty confident that Hurta will run the 1500 at the NCAA Championships. When she was on The Beer Mile podcast a couple weeks back, she noted that she’d likely run the 800 at the Olympic Trials and that her decision for that meet might not be the same as the national meet. That seems like a pretty clear indication that Hurta will opt for the 1500, although her recent PAC-12 title may have her on the fence.

Maura: After winning the mile at the NCAA Indoor Championships, Hurta should go after the 1500 to continue proving her dominance. With the fastest PR in the field -- a 4:08 earned against racing professionals at the Oregon Relays -- Hurta has what it takes to once again take down a strong NCAA field. With her 2:00 half-mile speed and an ability to race from the front or wait until the halfway mark, this Colorado Buffaloes' chances at winning a second title are very likely.

Whittni Orton (BYU) 1500 or 5k

Maura: Orton may be an All-American in the 1500 and may hold a PR of 4:09, but I think her best shot at an NCAA title will be in the 5k. The BYU Cougar just dropped a stunning 15:12 in a field full of professionals at the American Track League. This performance catapulted her to the top of the national leaderboard. With her mix of endurance and strong finishing kick, Orton could easily take down the field if it came down to the last kilometer.

Garrett: There’s less competition that can beat Orton in the 5k compared to the 1500 meters. Not only that, but her 15:12 mark is arguably more impressive than her 4:09. She could very easily go after the double and I think there’s a 10% chance that happens. However, everything that we know about Orton this season suggests that the 5k is her best event. She can handle an aggressive pace and has the 4:09 speed to compete with a fast finish. If she chooses the 1500, I’ll be shocked.

Sam: She’s not going to run ONLY the 1500, but she might still contest it. Orton could contest the double, which doesn’t seem that wild to consider. If I had to make a call, I’d lean towards the 5k just because she has the NCAA lead. That said, if Hurta goes for the 800 over the 1500, Orton would arguably be the favorite in the 1500 and the 5k.

Gabrielle Jennings (Furman) 1500, Steeplechase and/or 5k

Garrett: I think the steeplechase/5k double is on the table for Jennings. Her 4:12 mark is super strong and I would argue that the 1500 meters is her best chance at success, but the steeplechase/5k double gives her a realistic chance at All-American success whereas the 1500 is a bit more variable. Who knows? Maybe she tries to go for the 1500/5k double...gosh, this is becoming a much tricker situation than I thought. Still, at the end of the day, I think the steeplechase is Jennings’ preferred event and that will ultimately influence her decision.

Sam: As good as Jennings has been in the 1500, this was always going to be the steeple/5k double. The 5k is just a bonus given that it's the final (distance) race, but the steeplechase has been Jennings' marquee event for the past two outdoor seasons. The #GirlGang star will be a contender in the steeple, especially with her 1500 speed, and should bounce back for a chance at All-American honors in the 5k.

Maura: Give me the steeplechase/5k double for Jennings. The Furman senior has experience racing the steeplechase at the NCAA Championships before, finishing 9th in 2019, and since then she has only improved her fitness across a wide range of distances from the 800 all the way up to the 5k. An added advantage for Jennings is that she has been racing professional fields quite a few times this season and has been able to fine-tune her racing tactics amongst those women. These newfound tactics could come in handy in the steeplechase against the likes of Courtney Wayment, Joyce Kimeli, Aneta Konieczek, potentially Krissy Gear and Hannah Steelman. As for the 5k, earning All-American honors would highlight a strong weekend for Jennings.

Katie Wasserman (Notre Dame): 1500 or 5k

Garrett: This is probably the most difficult question to answer. Should a 4:10 1500 meter runner (NCAA #7) discard the event for the 5k where she has run 15:33 (NCAA #8)? Or vice versa? Well, it all depends on who scratches what event. It’s not clear who will be scratching the 1500, but the 5k will likely see a fresh Whittni Orton, a day-rested Mercy Chelangat, a fresh Elly Henes and (maybe) a fresh Ella Donaghu. Others like Wayment, Steelman, Prouse and Jennings may also double back from the steeplechase. In all, I think the 5k is just going to be too crowded at the top and I think Wasserman has more experience of racing at a high level in mile distance from the 2020 indoor track season. So, based on all of that logic, I think the 1500 is her best choice.

Sam: This is tough, but doubling down seems like the right move. Wasserman is in that position where she’s not a favorite in either event, but could force an upset in both. Given that she’s not a strong favorite, it seems in her best interest to take as many shots as possible and hope one goes in. Run the 1500, maybe make finals, and then see what happens when the 5k comes around.

Maura: Both Garrett and Sam make good cases here, but I’m going to side with Garrett. Wasserman has clearly improved her 5k abilities since arriving at Notre Dame from Columbia, but her experience in the middle distance events could play into her favor. The 5k field is headlined by notable names that have been proving themselves for the past few seasons, whereas the 1500 is seeing the rise of numerous women. Wasserman hasn’t contested the 5k since the Raleigh Relays at the end of March and has rather focused on two 1500’s. Her 4:10 from the ACC Championships places her amongst the top of the NCAA leaderboard.