KEY (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before. (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. Colors may not show on mobile. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before. 25. NC State Wolfpack (Wasn't Ranked) NC State was a big question mark team (at least in my eyes) as they entered this season. They lost a great low-stick / leader in Sam Parsons and didn’t seem to have an established identity. Then again, maybe that’s why the Wolfpack was the best kept secret in the NCAA this year. Yes, much like UVA, the start of their season was slow with a 9th place finish at Notre Dame. Still, things began to progress. They were 15th at the Wisconsin Invite, snuck into 3rd at ACC’s, and finished 4th overall in a very deep and underrated Southeast region. To cap it all off with a 17th place finish at Nationals? That is something that that Coach Geiger should be very pleased with. 24. Virginia Cavaliers (Wasn't Ranked) You have to respect how far this Virginia squad has come when you look at where they once were earlier this season. After an atrocious finish at the Wisconsin Invite where they placed 30th out of 35 teams, many fans of the sport (including myself) dismissed the Cavaliers for the rest of the season. ACC’s wasn’t much better as they dropped to 4th overall behind Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and NC State. Just when things looked like they wouldn’t get any better, the Cavs came out of nowhere to beat NC State and give Virginia Tech a brief scare in the Southeast region. UVA would finish 3rd overall and get pushed into NCAA’s. The Cavs ended their season by placing 16th thanks to a huge breakout performance from Brent Demarest who tore apart the competition to place 19th as an individual. I suppose the old saying is true, it doesn’t matter where you start, it’s all about where you finish. 23. Texas Longhorns (-6 / 17) Well this was…disappointing. What happened to the Longhorns? They looked so good all season. They had consistent performances, established a few low-sticks, developed plenty of depth, and actually beat a few decent teams. Unfortunately, their Cinderella story ended at NCAA’s as they fell to 30th overall, ahead of only Navy. What ever happened to Sam Worley who was unable to finish at the South Central Regional Championships and didn’t even run at Nationals? 22. Alabama Crimson Tide (Wasn't Ranked) Throughout the season, I looked over the KOLAS projections time and time again. I tried to find a way that Alabama could make it to NCAA’s. It was possible, but I still found that it would be incredibly tough. Of course, as fate would have it, Alabama was granted the final qualifying spot to NCAA’s. Once at Nationals, the conversation about Alabama’s effectiveness as a team drastically changed (from a numbers perspective). When you look at the impact of the top three, not only did they keep things competitive, but they CARRIED the team. The Crimson Tide had the 2nd worst #4 man and the 4th worst #5 man (both in team scoring). But from the top three? Only NAU and Stanford had a better top three in team scoring. The Crimson Tide scored a mind-boggling 41 points with their top three runners while the meet average for a team’s top three was ~182 points. In layman’s terms, Alabama’s top three was 4.44 times better than the average top three of any other team at this meet. That is how you get 14th at Nationals. 21. Washington Huskies (-2 / 19) This Washington squad reminded me a lot of their 2015 team. They had an unexciting regular season, but came out of nowhere for a monster performance at NCAA’s. Sure enough, that was exactly what happened in 2017. In fact, Washington was only two points away from upsetting Portland in the West region. Unfortunately, they couldn’t replicate that same success at Nationals after finishing 22nd overall. Still, the future is bright for the Huskies. Of their the top seven who ran at Nationals, three were freshmen, one was a sophomore, one was a junior, and two were seniors. 20. Boise State Broncos (+3 / 23) The Broncos are resilient. No matter what was thrown at them, they found a way to stay competitive and stay in the mix of any race. Their biggest challenge this season was dealing with the struggles of established ace, Yusuke Uchikoshi. Almost all of Boise State’s lineup had a respectable showing at Louisville, but faltered at Wisconsin with a finish of 21st. After a solid runner-up finish in the Mountain West conference and wrestling with the titans of the West region, Boise State found themselves owning one of the 31 spots to Nationals. Once there, Addison DeHaven (a transfer from Wisconsin) and Miler Haller led the way with huge finishes of 31st and 36th respectively. True freshman Ahmed Muhumed held his own with a 113th place finish. Unfortunately, the final two scorers saw a rather notable drop with finishes of 189th and 196th. Boise State ended the day in 19th overall. Was it the finish they were looking for? No, probably not. But they could at least take solace in the fact that they had two individual All-Americans. 19. Mississippi Rebels (+2 / 21) It was an up and down season for Mississippi. They started out strong by finishing only two points off Oklahoma State at the Cowboy Jamboree and later finished 5th at Pre-Nats. SEC’s, however, was a different story. Ole Miss struggled to gather their depth and not only lost to Arkansas, but also fell to Alabama (by one point). The Rebels would rebound at the South Regional Championships by placing 2nd overall, but the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders still got the best of the Rebels. NCAA’s was a slightly better result as Sean Tobin carried the squad to an 18th place finish in the team standings thanks to his 12th place individual finish. It wasn’t always pretty, but for a team that lost almost the entirety of their 2016 squad, Mississippi handled the big stage relatively well. 18. UCLA Bruins (-4 / 14) After losing a key piece of last year’s squad to graduation (Ferdinand Edman) and a change in the coaching staff, the Bruins desperately needed a low-stick. Luckily, a top-level ace just happened to land in their lap. Cal transfer Robert Brandt was a huge pickup for the Bruins this season as well as the rise of #2 man Garrett Reynolds. These two helped UCLA stay competitive with a 3rd place finish at Roy Griak, an 9th place finish at Wisconsin, 3rd at PAC 12’s, and a 4th in the West region (without Brandt). Unfortunately, the team was simply underprepared for the wave of talent that consumed them at Nationals. The Bruins would end their season 21st overall in the NCAA. The good news? Four of their five scorers are set to return next year. 17. Virginia Tech Hokies (-6 / 11) It wasn’t quite the day that the Hokies were looking for. They had great performances from Seufer (45th) and Joseph (52nd), but the drop off after them was sub-par to say the least with the final scorers placing 119th, 163rd, and 190th. Their finish of 20th place at NCAA’s doesn’t speak justice to the work that Virginia Tech has put into this season. It may not have been the best finish, but they at least proved that they are more than just a middle distance / track school. 16. Michigan State Spartans (-4 / 12) A small home meet at Michigan State showed a little bit of shakiness, but consistent performances of at Roy Griak (2nd), Wisconsin, (11th), and Great Lakes (1st) really catapulted this team to the top of the rankings. Unfortunately, a large field of top-tier talent was too much for the Spartans to handle. Michigan State fell to 25th overall with Morgan Beadlescomb ending the day as the only Spartan finisher in the top 100 (91st). 15. Iona Gaels (+9 / 24) It was an ugly start to the season for Iona, mainly at Wisconsin. Chartt Miller struggled in his season debut, Gilbert Kirui was nowhere to be seen, and the depth failed to produce anything of importance. Yet, Iona is naturally a strong team in the postseason. At conferences, Kirui was back in the lineup. At the Northeast region, they actually kept things competitive with a talented Syracuse team. And at NCAA’s? They came away with a big 12th place finish. Had they not had those early season struggles, they would have been much closer to the top 10. 14. Air Force Falcons (+2 / 16) It was a really solid season for the Falcons who not only made it back to NCAA’s for the first time since 2013, but they thrived while they were there by placing 15th overall. Mickey Davey proved that he was the real deal with his monster 18th place finish while Andrew Johnston continued to be a key scorer for this squad by finishing 59th overall. The Falcons slowly improved throughout this season and to place 15th even when one of their key low-sticks (Jacob Bilvado) faltered is super impressive to me. 13. Southern Utah Thunderbirds (-3 / 10) You have to give a lot of props to the Thunderbirds who placed 11th at NCAA’s and put up strong results throughout this season. They really stepped up and took a few teams by surprise, especially when they upset Colorado at the Notre Dame Invite. Admittedly, they began to fade in the later portion of the season, but they still put up respectable performances throughout 2017 thanks to the development of low-sticks, consistency from their middle scorers, and a slew of depth that began to show a lot of maturity. 12. Michigan Wolverines (+1 / 13) It was a solid season for Big Blue. They had a respectable performance at Wisconsin by placing 10th overall and followed that up with a BIG 10 title. They did, however, fall to Michigan at the Great Lakes region which pushed them back a bit. Still, a 10th place finish at NCAA’s is a heck of a performance. If I could rank this team in the top 10, I would, but the other teams ahead of them just simply accomplished more. 11. Furman Paladins (-4 / 7) Flat-out bad. That’s the best way to describe Furman’s performance at NCAA’s where they finished 26th overall and had no one in the top 120. Their day in Louisville may not have been what they were hoping for, but their season just goes to show that this program is legit. They placed 6th at Wisconsin and dominated the Southeast region. They may have had a rough day at Nationals, but their development this season has been nothing short of spectacular. Templeton became the much needed low-stick that this team needed while the rest of the scorers were able to sustain their pack-running ability. 10. Oregon Ducks (+8 / 18) The Oregon men started off the season strong with a 3rd place finish at Pre-Nats without Matthew Maton. Of course, Matthew Maton wouldn’t be seen in the lineup for the entire season. An explanation as to why is still unclear. The Ducks then entered PAC 12’s (4th) and the West region (5th) where they were upset by UCLA (in both races) for the 2nd straight year. With a freshman as the Ducks top runner and no super-star (i.e. Maton) to lead the team, I was skeptical as to how Oregon would fare on the big stage, especially with a young squad. At NCAA’s, my concerns were quickly put to rest as Oregon executed one of the smartest race plans of any team in the meet with superb pack running and conservative race tactics. Anderson and Teare slowly moved their way up throughout the race with finishes of 41st and 44th respectively. Their three bottom scorers also made some serious moves in the 2nd half of the race with finishes 78th (Brown), 81st (Tamagno), and 84th (Haney). 9. Iowa State Cyclones (+6 / 15) Simply put, it was a beautifully executed race by the Cyclones. Andrew Jordan ran like an accomplished veteran (15th) while Stanley Langat held his own for 53rd overall. The rest of the group stayed together and never put themselves in a position that could damage the team score. Curts was 68th, Rodriguez was 97th, and Pollard was 98th. Having all five scorers in the top 100 (overall) was accomplished by only five teams: NAU, Portland, BYU, Oregon, and Iowa State. 8. Colorado State Rams (0 / 8) Coach Art Siemers entered this Colorado State program in 2012 with very little to work with. In the past six years, he has turned average recruits into NCAA contenders. He has made a once average team into consistent national qualifiers in the toughest region in the nation. That why, as a fan of the sport, you can't help but feel bad for the Rams who were in a position to podium with just 2k to go. Unfortunately, Jerrell Mock fell from 10th to 167th and knocked the Rams back a few spots. While it is certainly disappointing, this is still CSU's best finish in program history since 1978. Props to Colorado State and Coach Siemers. 7. Syracuse Orangemen (-3 / 4) It just wasn't Syracuse's day at NCAA's. Knight's win was huge, but having their 2nd man (Bennie) at 56th overall was far from the result they were looking for. 13th in the team standings may hurt, but this group was solid throughout the season and at least showed us that this program will be remembered for years to come. 6. Colorado Buffaloes (0 / 6) You have to commend the Buffs for all that they accomplished this season. They lost to Southern Utah early in the season and lost John Dressel to an injury during the regular season. Still, Colorado made the necessary adjustments. They finished 2nd at Pre-Nats, lost to Stanford at PAC 12's by only six points, easily secured a spot to NCAA's, and finished it all off with an 8th place finish. Was it a perfect season? No, but when you consider that they did it without their top guy, then it's tough not to be impressed. 5. Arkansas Razorbacks (+4 / 9) Despite an ugly 9th place finish at Pre-Nats, the Razorbacks kept their cool and rebounded. They dominated Alabama and Ole Miss at SEC's by 40 points, cruised through the South Central region, and walked away from NCAA's with a 5th place finish. Being outside of the podium spots for the 2nd straight year must definitely hurt, but when you consider their early season struggles, they came back pretty strong. 4. Stanford Cardinal (-1 / 3) In regards to the overall team finish, I don't think there were too many surprises here. Fisher did what he had to do while Ostberg and Fahy stepped up in a big way by finishing 16th and 17th overall. Unfortunately, that youth and inexperience got the best of Stanford's freshmen. Tai Dinger (a junior) held his own and finished 83rd overall. However, it was the freshmen Callum Bolger and Alek Parsons that finished 138th and 145th overall. 3. BYU Cougars (-1 / 2) 2. Portland Pilots (+3 / 5) I'll admit it, I still think BYU was the better squad throughout this season. They won Pre-Nats and fought off Colorado in the Mountain region despite not running two of their top runners. A lot of people will argue that BYU man-handled Portland at the West Coast Conference Championships, but clearly that doesn't matter when Portland emerges as the 2nd place team at Nationals. I'm not a fan of placing teams in the exact spot of their finish at Nationals, but Portland seemed to have a long-term plan that paid off. When it came down to the 10k, the Pilots were simply the better squad. 1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 1) Utter domination. When you have a lineup as talented as Northern Arizona, it's hard to see them losing. The 1-2 punch of Baxter and Day matched with the breakout performance of Peter Lomong (who placed 8th) was simply too much for BYU or any other team to handle. It was the best 1-2-3 finish since Wisconsin placed 2nd, 4th, and 5th at the 2012 NCAA Championships (where they placed 2nd overall). Having all five scorers become individual All-Americans is super impressive. ADDED Alabama Crimson Tide Virginia Cavaliers NC State Wolfpack KICKED OFF Oklahoma State Cowboys (Formerly #20) Wisconsin Badgers (Formerly #22) Utah State Aggies (Formerly #25) JUST MISS (in no order) Princeton Tigers Illinois Fighting Illini' Wisconsin Badgers Utah State Aggies Mid. Tenn. State Blue Raiders Oklahoma State Cowboys SURPRISE OF THE WEEK Alabama Crimson Tide: For most of the season, a lot of people around the nation (including myself) were convinced that Alabama wouldn't make it to NCAA's. Yet, as of last Friday, they were the 14th best team in the nation. Credit where credit is due. Alabama got the job done. TEAM OF THE WEEK Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: All five scorers are All-Americans and they became the national champions. There isn't much of an argument here. NOTES - Just because a team placed well at NCAA's doesn't mean they will necessarily move up in the rankings. If other teams simply had better overall seasons, they will most likely get the better spot in our top 25. #rankings #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis #Top25 #Nationals

KEY (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before. (#/#): First number indicates how much the individual has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. Colors may not show on mobile. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before. 50. Ben Veatch, Sophomore, Indiana (-4 / 46) - 28th at Wisconsin and back-to-back 4th place finishes at BIG 10's and the Great Lakes Regional Championships is enough to balance his sub-par 87th place finish at Nationals.  49. Aaron Templeton, Rs. Junior, Furman (-2 / 47) - In general, it was just an ugly day for the Furman men. Not a single Paladin broke into the top 120. While I'm sure it's disappointing for most Furman fans, Templeton did enough this season to keep his spot in our top 50 despite placing 148th at NCAA's. Thanks to a 7th place finish at Louisville, 20th place finish at Wisconsin, and a 5th place in the Southeast region, Templeton should still be considered one of the top distance runners in the nation.  48. Miler Haller, Rs. Sophomore, Boise State (Wasn't Ranked) - With Boise State's usual low-stick (Yusuke Uchikoshi) underperforming, the Broncos looked to Miler Haller to lead this team throughout the 2017 season. It wasn't always pretty which is evident by his 63rd place finish at Wisconsin, but 12th at Louisville, 6th in the Mountain West, and 8th in the West region set Haller up perfectly for his All-American performance at Nationals (where he finished 36th). When the team needed a leader, he stepped up and gave them someone to rally around. 47. Luis Grijalva, Freshman, Northern Arizona (-5 / 42) - 10th at Louisville and 21st at Wisconsin were the highlights of Grijalva's regular season. He didn't score for the Lumberjacks at NCAA's, but 60th place at Nationals is a solid finish for any freshman. 46. Nahom Solomon, Senior, Georgia Tech (Wasn't Ranked) - Much like Edwin Kurgat, our focus on other individuals and teams in the same conference or region is what led to talents like Solomon going unnoticed. He never finished outside of the top 10 at any meet he raced in (prior to NCAA's) and ended his season with a 22nd place finish at NCAA's. Hopefully we get to see more of him on the track. 45. Emmanuel Rotich, Junior, Tulane (-10 / 35) - Fun Fact: Emmanuel Rotich was undefeated as he entered NCAA's. Not-So Fun Fact: Emmanuel Rotich finished 191st at NCAA's.  Rotich was an animal all season, but his only notable wins came against Brian Barraza (Houston) and the field at the South Central Regional Championships where most of the top individuals were holding back. He's a talented top runner, but he needs to start competing against better individuals during the regular season. 44. Brent Demarest, Rs. Senior, Virginia (Wasn't Ranked) - After unimpressive finishes of 5th at Panorama Farms and 56th at Wisconsin, Demarest began to find his groove once more after placing runner-up at ACC's, 7th in the Southeast region, and a huge 19th place finish at Nationals. It may have been a slow start, but he was on fire as the season ended.  43. Clark Ruiz, Rs. Senior, Michigan State (-7 / 36) - Ruiz was the reliable veteran that the Spartans leaned on all season. He was 4th at Roy Griak, 15th at Wisconsin, 3rd at BIG 10's, and 8th in the Great Lakes region. Unfortunately, Ruiz just had an off day on the big stage and fell to 126th overall. 42. Aidan Tooker, Sophomore, Syracuse (-15 / 27) - It was a rough day for Tooker who simply didn't have the experience to thrive in a 10k field as intense as NCAA's. Tooker's 109th place certainly doesn't look great, but he had enough solid performances throughout the season to keep him as a relevant part of our rankings. 41. Edwin Kurgat, Sophomore, Tennessee-Martin (Wasn't Ranked) - While most of our attention in the South region were focused on the Alabama trio, the complexity of Mississippi's depth, and the legitimacy of Jacob Choge, no one was paying attention to Edwin Kurgat. The UTM sophomore finished 9th at Louisville, 5th at the Crimson Classic, 8th in the South region, and now 21st at NCAA's. One thing is for sure, he won't be under the radar any longer. 40. Oliver Hoare, Sophomore, Wisconsin (-7 / 33) - Hoare struggled in the larger invites this season after placing 114th at Wisconsin and 185th at NCAA's. Still, you can't discredit his BIG 10 title or 3rd place finish in the Great Lakes region. When he returns next year, he'll give Wisconsin a dangerous 1-2 punch alongside Morgan McDonald. 39. Nadeel Wildschutt, Freshman, Coastal Carolina (-1 / 38) - He was undefeated entering regionals, placed 4th at the Southeast Regional Championships, and ended his season with a 28th place finish. I'd love to rank him better than 39th, but the competition he faced during the regular season wasn't exactly the most competitive. 38. Colin Bennie, Senior, Syracuse (-12 / 26) - 14th at Wisconsin and 3rd at ACC's is enough for Bennie to stick around in the top 40. Still, 56th at NCAA's when Syracuse needed someone to complement Knight is not the kind of performance you'd expect out of Bennie. 37. Cole Rockhold, Junior, Colorado State (0 / 37) - Even when team ace Jerrell Mock faltered, Rockhold rose to the occasion. 32nd at NCAA's is a nice reward for someone who took a backseat to Mock for most of the season. 36. Geordie Beamish, Rs. Junior, Northern Arizona (-11 / 25) - Beamish gave Northern Arizona some stability throughout the season. He never faltered on the big stage and consistently crossed the line with respectable finishes. 40th at NCAA's seems about right for someone of his caliber. 35. Connor McMillan, Rs. Junior, BYU (-5 / 30) - McMillan was the backbone of BYU's success this season. 3rd at Bill Dellinger, 6th at Pre-Nats, 1st at WCC's, 4th at the Mountain Region Championships, and 30th in the nation is an absolutely monster season for a guy who found himself in 84th at the NCAA Championships in 2015. Yes, he probably deserves a better ranking than 35th, but this darn thing called math doesn't allow you to put 50 guys in the top 30. 34. Sean Tobin, Senior, Mississippi (+9 / 43) - Tobin may have been slightly overrated in our rankings this season, but his miraculous 12th place finish at NCAA's finally gave validation to the importance of what he means to his team. Experience is the key to success at NCAA's and Tobin further proved that. 33. Ben Flanagan, Rs. Senior, Michigan (-1 / 32) - Flanagan's postseason racing was absolutely incredible. He finished 6th at BIG 10's, won the title in the Great Lakes region, and secured 20th at NCAA's. He will certainly be missed in Ann Arbor next year. 32. Mickey Davey, Junior, Air Force (Wasn't Ranked) - One of the more underrated individuals in the NCAA this year was Mickey Davey. He was 15th at Notre Dame, 30th at Wisconsin, 9th in the Mountain West, 8th in the Mountain region, and now 18th at Nationals! Davey prospered at the 10k distance and only got better as the season progressed.  31. Alex George, Senior, Arkansas (-15 / 16) - George was solid all season and gave the Razorbacks a consistent low-stick to lean on. Still, he just didn't seem to have the same edge that he did last season. 51st at NCAA's is a great finish, but after placing 15th last year, the expectations that many people had for him weren't quite met. 30. Peter Seufer, Junior, Virginia Tech (-8 / 20) 29. Robert Brandt, Junior, UCLA (-7 / 22) - Seufer's 45th place finish and Brandt's 88th place finish at NCAA's wasn't exactly what we were looking for. Still, they had strong performances all season. It's hard to ignore Seufer's runner-up finish at Pre-Nats and Brandt's 7th place finish at Wisconsin. 28. Nick Hauger, Rs. Junior, Portland (-1 / 27) - Much like Clinger, it pains me to put Hauger in a rank that is a few spots back of where he actually finished at NCAA's. Yet, the other guys ahead of him just had better overall seasons. Still, he was one of the unsung heros of the Portland Pilots this season. He stepped up to a new level of fitness that was much needed if the Pilots were going to make the podium. 27. Casey Clinger, Freshman, BYU (+4 / 31) - The two-time NXN champion entered this season with so much poise. He immediately began running with BYU's top runners and never finished outside of the top 10 with the exception of NCAA's where he placed 24th overall (to lead the Cougars). It's hard to place Clinger three spots away from his NCAA finish, but the others ahead of him just had too many great performances this season. 26. Andrew Jordan, Sophomore, Iowa State (Wasn't Ranked) - Despite great performances throughout the entire season, Andrew Jordan somehow couldn't grab a spot in our Top 50. Now, after his 15th place finish at NCAA's, Jordan has established himself as one of the top returners in the nation.  25. Steven Fahy, Junior, Stanford (Wasn't Ranked) - After an uninspiring finish at Bill Dellinger and a 65th place finish at Wisconsin, Fahy began to find his groove in the postseason with back-to-back 3rd place finishes at PAC 12's and the West Regional Championships. He would later cap off his epic run with a 17th place All-American finish.  24. Jonathan Davis, Sophomore, Illinois (-6 / 18) 23. Hassan Abdi, Senior, Oklahoma State (-8 / 15) - The top two Midwest representatives held their own at NCAA's with finishes of 47th (Abdi) and 49th (Davis) overall. They didn't exactly blow away the field, but when you look at their regular season performances, I think it's fair to say that they did enough to at least maintain a spot in the top 25. 22. Lawrence Kipkoech, Rs. Junior, Campbell (+12 / 34) - The 10k distance has treated Kipkoech well for the past two weeks. After dominating the Southeast region with a huge 28:45 win, the Campbell redshirt junior continued to thrive off of fast paces and ended the day in 9th overall. For someone who had underwhelmed all season, this is a huge performance for him. 21. Jerrell Mock, Rs. Senior, Colorado State (-8 / 13) - I feel bad for Mock who left everything he had out on the course. He was fighting for a top 10 spot throughout most of the race, but locked up in the final 2k in an attempt to respond to the demanding pace. 169th may be a disappointing finish, but it doesn’t tell the story of someone willing to put it all on the line. 20. Alex Ostberg, Rs. Sophomore, Stanford (+9 / 29) - I was a huge fan of Ostberg during his time in high school. I admired his gutsy running and willingness to race the best. After three years of development under Coach Milt at Stanford, Ostberg can now walk away as a team All-American and an individual All-American (16th overall). 19. Jack Bruce, Senior, Arkansas (+2 / 21) - Early in his collegiate racing career, Bruce lacked consistency in his performances. Yet, placing 13th at NCAA's only validates the idea that this guy is a postseason star who can thrive in almost any championship race. 18. Azaria Kirwa, Junior, Liberty (-4 / 14) - 2nd at Paul Short, 4th at Pre-Nats, 2nd at the BIG South Championships, and 3rd in the Southeast region is an impressive string of races for any athlete at any level. Kirwa was probably looking for something a little better than 25th at NCAA's, but his overall season was still incredibly impressive. 17. Joe Klecker, Rs. Sophomore, Colorado (-5 / 12) - It was just an off day for Klecker who finished 67th overall. He wasn't perfect this season, but he ran some gutsy races and began to find his stride in the later portion of the season. For that, he stays in the top 20.  16. Peter Lomong, Junior, Northern Arizona (Wasn't Ranked) - I think we all knew that Peter Lomong was good, but to finish 8th at NCAA's? That is just absurd. His regular season performances were solid, 11th at Louisville and 43rd at Wisconsin, but nothing he had done before indicated that he could finish 8th in the nation. 15. Amon Kemboi, Rs. Freshman, Campbell (-4 / 11) - Youth and a lack of experience on the big stage are most likely the biggest reasons why Kemboi failed to match his TSR ranking. Still, 29th is not bad at all and it only boosts his impressive 2017 resume. 14. Alfred Chelanga, Junior, Alabama (-4 / 10) - 37th at NCAA's. Ideal? No, but he stuck around with that Alabama group for the most year and to say that he's really 30+ spots worse than them would be misleading. 13. Jacob Choge, Sophomore, Middle Tennessee State (-3 / 7) - 34th at NCAA's is probably not the finish Choge was looking for, but he finished ahead of the Crimson Tide trio earlier this season and has shown a lot of consistency. He has struggled on the big stage (relative to his regular season performances), but his overall season is better than what his NCAA finish shows. 12. Jeff Thies, Rs. Senior, Portland (+12 / 24) 11. Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse, Sophomore, Portland (+12 / 23) - My goodness these two were good. ERL's experience in cross country on the global stage paired with the underrated talent of veteran Jeff Thies gave the Pilots a lethal 1-2 punch. Roudolff-Levisse would go to place 11th while Thies wasn't far behind in 14th.  10. Jonathan Green, Rs. Senior, Georgetown (+9 / 19) - What a huge day for Green! After a stellar breakout season in 2015 where he placed 5th overall at NCAA's, Green dealt with injuries throughout 2016 and was essentially a non-factor for the entirety of his junior year. Fast forward to now and Green has regained the role of superstar after cruising to wins in the BIG East and Mid-Atlantic Championships. He capped off his comeback season with a 10th place finish overall. 9. Andy Trouard, Rs. Senior, Northern Arizona (-3 / 6) - Trouard's 35th place finish at NCAA's wasn't exactly what many were expecting, but when you look at his body of work throughout this season, I think it's hard to dismiss his talent. 8. Dillon Maggard, Senior, Utah State (+9 / 17) - He started the season 8th in our preseason rankings, so it's only appropriate that he finishes there. Maggard had a variety of consistent and solid performance throughout the 2017 season, but to come out of nowhere to place 6th overall just goes to show how resilient and experienced he is.  7. Vincent Kiprop, Junior, Alabama (+1 / 8) - Despite all of the madness that took place during NCAA's, Vincent Kiprop quietly put together a 7th place finish. He may not have been the top Crimson Tide finisher, but he was a big reason why Alabama finished 14th in the team scoring. 6. Rory Linkletter, Junior, BYU (-3 / 3) - It wasn't the day that Linkletter or anyone was expecting. The top group was simply putting in too many hard moves and created a gap that even some of the best runners in the nation failed to respond to. Still, Linkletter hung tough and walked away in 39th. Was it ideal for him? No, but if this is the "worst" race of his season then I'm not ready to penalize him too much. 5. Gilbert Kigen, Junior, Alabama (+4 / 9) - What a huge race from the former JUCO star! Kigen was able to react to a variety of moves made by the leaders and even took on some pacing duties earlier in the race. The 10k distance has treated him rather well over the past few weeks. 4. Grant Fisher, Junior, Stanford (-2 / 2) - After getting pinned in the back of the pack and having to work his way up throughout the race, Fisher had to settle for 5th overall. In a post-race interview, Fisher explained that making any gutsy or big move to catch the lead pack could have come back to hurt him and jeopardize the team score. Still, could he have really caught up with that group up front? 3. Tyler Day, Junior, Northern Arizona (+1 / 4) 2. Matthew Baxter, Rs. Senior, Northern Arizona (+3 / 5) - What a gutsy effort by these two men! They weren't leaving anything to chance as they flexed their strength by taking the race out hard from the gun. They had a race plan and they executed it to perfection. 1. Justyn Knight, Senior, Syracuse (0 / 1) - He cramped up at 4k and still didn't relinquish a potential NCAA title. Despite the NAU men moving hard, Knight hung tough and can now walk as an individual NCAA champion. ADDED Peter Lomong (NAU) Steven Fahy (Stanford) Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) Mickey Davey (Air Force) Edwin Kurgat (Tenn. - Martin) Brent Demarest (Virginia) Nahom Solomon (Georgia Tech) Miler Haller (Boise State) DROPPED Brian Barraza (Houston) (Formerly #39) Mike Tate (Southern Utah) (Formerly #40) Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) (Formerly #41) Garrett Reynolds (UCLA) (Formerly #44) Andrew Johnston (Air Force) (Formerly #45) Josh Brickell (Furman) (Formerly #48) Clayton Young (BYU) (Formerly #49) Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) (Formerly #50) JUST MISS (in no order) Joe Hardy (Wisconsin) Ryan Forsyth (Colorado) Eduardo Herrera (Colorado) Kigen Chemadi (MTSU) Gilbert Kirui (Iona) Addison DeHaven (Boise State) Johannes Motschmann (Iona) Tanner Anderson (Oregon) Andrew Johnston (Air Force) Cooper Teare (Oregon) Brian Barraza (Houston) Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) Clayton Young (BYU) Josh Brickell (Furman) Mike Tate (Southern Utah) SURPRISE OF THE WEEK Peter Lomong (Northern Arizona):  Wow. 8th at Nationals, or even an All-American finish, isn't what most people were expecting from Peter Lomong. The training plan that he and Mike Smith put together is the reason why NAU dominated and didn't just "win". RUNNER OF THE WEEK Justyn Knight (Syracuse): It's hard not to cheer for one individual in particular, but you have to be happy for Knight. He worked his way up the ladder and became an elite athlete that had accomplished it all...except an NCAA title. That finally all changed this past weekend. Justyn Knigth can now call himself an NCAA team champion and an NCAA individual champion. NOTES - Despite great finishes from certain runners at Nationals, the overall season is being evaluated. Some individuals may have finished better than their ranking from Week 11, but if there is just too much talent ahead of them, then they will fall in the rankings (whether I like them or not).  - If I had to choose a #51, it would most likely be Kigen Chemadi (MTSU) #rankings #Top50 #gzatlin #analysis #Nationals #XC #ncaa

Individuals 50. Daniel Carney (BYU) 49. Cooper Teare (Oregon) 48. Luis Grijalva (NAU) 47. Miler Haller (Boise State) 46. Ryan Forsyth (Colorado) The younger guys have been killing it this year. With Matthew Maton absent from Oregon's lineup, Cooper Teare has been a nice replacement as the Duck's ace. Luis Grijalva has given NAU an extra weapon to flex at one of the scoring positions. Admittedly, I don't like to pick younger guys to do well at NCAA's, but it's hard to pick against them this year. Be sure to keep an eye on Miler Haller as well. Yusuke Uchikoshi hasn't been the low-stick that Boise State was expecting, but Haller has stepped up and given the Broncos an extra guy to lean on. 45. Andrew Johnston (Air Force) 44. Clark Ruiz (Michigan State) 43. Jack Bruce (Arkansas) 42. Troy Reeder (Furman) 41. Nick Hauger (Portland) The next set of five are an experienced group that have thrived in the longer distances during their careers. These five have shown great consistency and one of them will most likely break into the top 30. Watch out for Troy Reeder. He could be the x-factor that puts Furman on the podium. 40. Casey Clinger (BYU) 39. Robert Brandt (UCLA) 38. Josh Brickell (Furman) 37. Alex Ostberg (Stanford) 36. Aidan Tooker (Syracuse) There is a lot of uncertainty with this group. Casey Clinger sits as the lone freshman in our predictions to earn All-American, but he has never raced a 10k before. Alex Ostberg has yet to race a 10k as well. He was held out of the lineup in the West region along with Robert Brandt. Aidan Tooker is in a similar boat by only having one 10k under his belt (which was two weeks ago). 35. Geordie Beamish (NAU) 34. Edwin Kurgat (Tenn. - Martin) 33. Ben Veatch (Indiana) 32. Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) 31. Aaron Templeton (Furman) I am a big fan of Edwin Kurgat and Ben Veatch this season. Both of these individuals have quietly put together solid performances all season against some of the best competition in the nation. Aaron Templeton might also be one of the most underrated low-sticks of any team at NCAA's this Saturday. 30. Nadeel Wildschutt (Coastal Carolina) 29. Mickey Davey (Air Force) 28. Dillon Maggard (Utah State) 27. Jonathan Davis (Illinois) 26. Philo Germano (Syracuse) Philo Germano is a postseason star and although his regular season performances haven't indicated that he can place 26th, some individuals are simply better on the big stage. One of the reasons why Air Force has been so successful this season is because of Mickey Davey. He has been consistent all season and was a top 10 finisher in the Mountain region. Also, who is Nadeel Wildschutt? Admittedly, I didn't know who he was before the Southeast Region Championships, but placing 4th in 29:03 in your first collegiate 10k is extremely impressive. 25. Ben Flanagan (Michigan) 24. Connor McMillan (BYU) 23. Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State) 22. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State) 21. Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane) I am banking on the experience and veteran status of this group to step up and be a big reason for why they do so well. A lot of these guys are also 10k oriented and have proven that they can compete with some of the best. Don't be surprised if Emmanuel Rotich has a big race. He may not have raced against elite competition during the regular season, but he is just as good as the other top guys in this field. 20. Clayton Young (BYU) 19. Jeff Thies (Portland) 18. Alex George (Arkansas) 17. Colin Bennie (Syracuse) 16. Amon Kemboi (Campbell) Jeff Thies has been one of the more under appreciated runners this year and his West region race was a great display of his ability to run the 10k. Amon Kemboi has also shown that he can adjust to the competition at any stage, but he is still young which is a (very minor) concern. The rest of this group have great 10k experience and have been on this stage multiple times before. They are almost locks to be All-American. 15. Andy Trouard (NAU) 14. Vincent Kiprop (Alabama) 13. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell) 12. Jacob Choge (Middle Tennessee State) 11. Joe Klecker (Colorado) Is Joe Klecker as good as his Mountain region win showed? How vulnerable is Vincent Kiprop after being the first of Alabama's top three to fall back in the 10k in the South Region Championships? Which Lawrence Kipkoech will we see? The one who ran 28:45 to win the Southeast region? Or the one who finished 23rd at Pre-Nats? Has Jacob Choge matured enough to thrive on the big stage compared to last year? Should we be concerned about Andy Trouard placing 18th in the Mountain region after placing 3rd all year? I like to think that these are all valid concerns which is the only reason why I have them outside of the top 10. 10. Tyler Day (NAU) 9. Jonathan Green (Georgetown) 8. Azaria Kirwa (Liberty) 7. Gilbert Kigen (Alabama) 6. Rory Linkletter (BYU) Let's be clear, Rory Linkletter could easily win the national title on Saturday despite being projected to finish 6th. Others like Azaria Kirwa and Jonathan Green have been extremely consistent all season and hungry to prove that they are stars among the elites of the NCAA. 5. Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse (Portland) 4. Matthew Baxter (NAU) 3. Alfred Chelanga (Alabama) 2. Grant Fisher (Stanford) 1. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) After Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse's monster performance in the West region, I am convinced that he can stick with the top guys in the nation. He has adjusted incredibly well to the collegiate scene and his experience on the global stage in cross country gives him an edge in this meet. Of course, what everyone wants to know is who wins overall. Knight was our preseason pick and we're sticking to our guns for this one. If it comes down to a kick, Knight will most likely have the edge. Of course, we've been wrong before. Teams 31. Washington State Cougars 30. Navy Midshipmen 29. NC State Wolfpack 28. Princeton Tigers 27. Utah State Aggies 26. Boise State Broncos It's obviously never fun to rank teams at the bottom of the list. Unfortunately, it's a necessary evil for prediction purposes. Teams like Princeton, Utah State, and Navy are solid teams that each hold a unique aspect strength. They are, however, inexperienced and young. That could definitely hurt them in the team standings. Other teams like Washington State and Boise State are great on paper, but they just haven't put it together on the same day this season. Hopefully, that will change on Saturday. 25. Ole Miss Rebels 24. Virginia Cavaliers 23. Oregon Ducks 22. Oklahoma State Cowboys 21. Alabama Crimson Tide Oregon could come out and annihilate the field, but their older guys this season haven't done as well as I expected and I don't know how I feel about Cooper Teare leading this squad in a 10k at Nationals. Plenty of Mississippi's squad from last year graduated, so a lot of these guys don't have the experience of running on the big stage. As for Alabama, their top three should be able to muscle them through to a finish near the top 20. Of course, those 4th and 5th are obviously a concern. 20. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders 19. Air Force Falcons 18. Virginia Tech Hokies 17. UCLA Bruins 16. Michigan Wolverines All of these teams are strong through four or five scorers and even have some firepower up front. Michigan, Air Force, and Middle Tennessee State all have a talented top three that helps them give an edge in the team scoring. Virginia Tech and UCLA have a solid 1-2 punch up front and a respectable pack throughout the rest of their lineup. That said, these teams just simply don't have the overall fitness that the teams ahead of them do. 15. Southern Utah Thunderbirds 14. Iona Gaels 13. Arkansas Razorbacks 12. Washington Huskies 11. Texas Longhorns Some may scoff at the idea of Texas placing 11th overall, but I really like the pack that this team has this year along with the underrated talented that they have at the front of their pack. Sam Worley was a DNF in the South Central region last week so if he finishes towards the top with the rest of his teammates then they end up defeating Arkansas for the title. Other programs like Iona and Arkansas are historically great squads and will most likely finish well because of their great experience. As for Washington, they remind me of their 2015 squad which came out of nowhere to place 8th. I see them doing something very similar this year. And Southern Utah? They could place either 7th or 17th. They haven't been as consistent in the later portion of the season, but if Mike Tate and Kasey Knevelbaard return to the level that they were at in the Notre Dame race, then this team has a chance to get into the top 10. 10. Iowa State Cyclones 9. Michigan State Spartans 8. Colorado State Rams 7. Colorado Buffaloes 6. Portland Pilots Some will scoff at the idea of Portland being outside of the top five after having such a dominant run in the West region. However, they only won their region by two points despite placing 1-2-4. As they have been all season, their bottom two scorers will be the difference makers in this meet for the Pilots. Others like Colorado State and Colorado have shown plenty of consistency and promise all season. Unfortunately, Dressel being out of the lineup is enough for me to keep Colorado off of the podium. And what about Iowa State and Michigan State? I mentioned in our Updated Top 25 Teams that Iowa State was out of the top two late in the race at the Midwest regional. Yet, even with the odds against them, they pulled themselves together and got the win thanks to a strong last 2k. Andrew Jordan has not given me a reason to doubt him and Thomas Pollard did very well on this stage last year. Add in another potential low-stick with Dan Curts and this team could really be dangerous. As for Michigan State, they are an experienced squad who runs the 10k distance very well. They're a better team in the longer races and we saw that difference when they lost to Michigan at BIG 10's, but later won the Great Lakes title. 5. Stanford Cardinal 4. Furman Paladins 3. BYU Cougars 2. Syracuse Orangemen 1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks Gosh, there is a lot to digest here. Let's break this down... Stanford is a great team with an abundance of talent. Grant Fisher is an ace, Alex Ostberg looks strong, and Steven Fahy could give this team a lethal 1-2-3. However, the rest of their squad is very young, Thomas Ratcliffe is most likely not running, and the veterans who have raced this season have not been very impressive. If you want to podium, you can't have this many uncertainties. The Paladins are a team that I praised early on in the season and they have only backed me up since then. Templeton and Brickell give this team some talent up front, Troy Reeder is beginning to budge his way up in the pack, and the rest of the team hasn't been too far behind. They may not have the elite talent that the other teams do, but having a tight pack that is experienced and consistent can do some serious damage against teams that have even the most minor hiccups. BYU is a team that could easily win the title (even by a lot). Still, when was the last time you saw everything go exactly as expected on the podium? The answer is usually "never". I don't really have a reason to be picking BYU at 3rd other than I like the experience and firepower that the teams ahead of them have. Syracuse is a darn good team. Knight is an easy pick for top three, Bennie is one of the best #2 scorers in the nation, Philo Germano always peaks in the postseason, Tooker has not given us a reason to doubt him, and they actually have more than one guy who could give them an edge at the #5 spot. Everything would have to go perfectly, but this team is most likely hungry to take back the crown. Northern Arizona. How could we pick against them? They've been at #1 for a heavy portion of the season after their miraculous performance at the Greater Louisville Classic. I would argue that they are even better than their squad last year. The way I see it, they have a top three that no other team except Alabama can match. After that, they have a variety of weapons to choose from. Want a consistent freshman with a lot of upside? Run Luis Grijalva. Won a potential sleeper pick? Choose Peter Lomong. Looking for some stability in the scoring? Pick Cory Glines. Want one of the best #4 scorers in the nation? Geordie Beamish is your guy. When you consider all of the names on this roster, I just don't see the Lumberjacks losing (especially with the experience of winning the title last year). Whatever the result may be, just know that this could be one of the craziest team battles in a long, long time. #preview #predictions #ncaa #XC #gzatlin

KEY (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before. (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. Colors may not show on mobile. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before. 25. Utah State Aggies (-3 / 22) Unsurprisingly, the Aggies finished 7th in the Mountain region and secured their spot to NCAA's. Luckily, they were in no real danger of an upset as the next closest team (New Mexico) was over 60 points behind. The bottom four scorers kept a close pack, but they'll need to collectively move up throughout the race during NCAA's. 24. Iona Gaels (0 / 24) They may not have won, but Iona showed that they are ready to rebound after placing all five of their scorers in the top 20 at the Northeast region. Gilbert Kirui's absence doesn't appear to be detrimental to the team, Johannes Motschmann and Liam Dee are beginning to run like legitimate low-sticks, and Chartt Miller was able to stick with the top group. If you're looking for a sleeper team at NCAA's, you might want to choose the Gaels 23. Boise State Broncos (-2 / 21) The Broncos showed a bit more consistency with most of their scorers this past weekend. Miler Haller continues to impress with his 8th place finish while Yusuke Uchikoshi is slowly beginning to rebound after placing 21st. It wasn't their worst race of the season, but with their 5th scorer placing 58th overall, they aren't the most stable team in terms of scoring. 22. Wisconsin Badgers (+1 / 23) You have to give some credit to the Badgers who were short-handed for the entire year with Morgan McDonald and Olin Hacker both out for the season. Wisconsin finished 3rd overall in the Great Lakes region after Hoare and Hardy placed 3rd and 6th overall. Unfortunately, the Badgers ended their season early after coming within five points from tying Michigan. 21. Mississippi Rebels (-4 / 17) After their performance at Pre-Nats (where they finished 5th overall), I viewed Ole Miss as a team that could even sneak into the top 15 of our rankings. Although they finished with an automatic berth to NCAA's, the Rebels failed to defeat a Middle Tennessee State team that had a better group of three up front. This team has been very up and down throughout this season. What should we expect from them at NCAA's? 20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (0 / 20) The Cowboys held it together pretty well in the Midwest region and unsurprisingly secured a spot to NCAA's thanks to a 2nd place run by Hassan Abdi and a 10th place finish by Luis Martinez. 19. Washington Huskies (+6 / 25) What an incredible race by the Washington Huskies! Portland may have placed three in the top four, but Washington was only two points off from the upset thanks to a brilliant rebound race from Colby Gilbert who placed 5th overall while teammates Andrew Gardner and Andy Snyder finished 7th and 9th overall. A lethal top three along with a much needed boost in the 4th and 5th positions have made the Huskies national contenders once again. This squad seems very reminiscent of their 2015 team that came out of nowhere to finish 8th at NCAA's. 18. Oregon Ducks (-4 / 14) As expected, Oregon secured a spot to NCAA's with their 4th place in the West region. Tanner Anderson had a huge race with his 6th place finish while Teare and Haney held their own for 23rd and 32nd place. However, the Ducks will need to see some improvement at the 4th and 5th scoring positions after underclassmen Reed Brown and Austin Tamagno finished 42nd and 46th overall. 17. Texas Longhorns (+2 / 19) The Longhorns got the job done in the South Central region after placing 2nd overall, only 14 points behind Arkansas. It's important to note that Sam Worley was a DNF in this race. 16. Air Force Falcons (+2 / 18) The Air Force men got the job done in the Mountain region with a strong performance from low-stick Mickey Davey who finished 8th overall. The Falcons were only 15 points off from Colorado State and even showed some improvement in the 4th and 5th scoring. If you're looking for a sleeper team, Air Force might be the team to watch. 15. Iowa State Cyclones (+1 / 16) Much like Virginia Tech, Iowa State was out of an automatic berth spot late in the race at the Midwest region. Yet, an incredible last 2k put the Cyclones back into mix and got them into Nationals. Had they not finished in the top two, Iowa State most likely would not have secured an at-large bid. If their two races have shown us anything, it's that this team is very resilient. 14. UCLA Bruins (0 / 14) The Bruins opted not to run their star low-stick (Robert Brandt) at the West Regional Championships this past weekend, but they still walked away with a trip to NCAA's. Oregon did finish 15 points ahead of UCLA, but if Brandt had run, then UCLA is beating Oregon (soundly). 13. Michigan Wolverines (-1 / 12) 12. Michigan State Spartans (+3 / 15) At BIG 10's we saw Michigan get the best of their in-state rivals by 11 points. At Great Lakes, the tables were turned and Michigan State earned the win this time, also by 11 points. As I mentioned in my predictions, the difference in this race was going to come down to the 4th and 5th scorers. Sure enough, that is what happened. In fact, the Spartans had the better #3 as well. It looks like the 10k distance is doing only good things for the men from East Lansing. 11. Virginia Tech Hokies (0 / 11) The Hokies definitely scared a few of their fans throughout most of the race after being outside of the top two through 8k. Yet, Virginia Tech gathered themselves and made a hard move in the last 2k to cover a 30 point difference between them and UVA. In the end, VT came away with 2nd place overall and defeated their in-state rivals by over 20 points. It wasn't the best race ever by the Hokies, but they did show that they could cover a point deficit in the final moments of the race. 10. Southern Utah Thunderbirds (0 / 10) It wasn't the race I was hoping for from the Thunderbirds as many of their top runners didn't have their best days. Still, the teams behind them just weren't impressing me (as much) and 5th place in the Mountain region is still pretty solid. If Mike Tate and Kasey Knevelbaard can run like they did at Notre Dame, then Southern Utah will almost be definitely be locks for a top 10 spot. 9. Arkansas Razorbacks (0 / 9) As expected, the Razorbacks took control of the race at the South Central conference and secured the win. 8. Colorado State Rams (0 / 8) No surprise here as the Rams got the job done by finishing 4th overall. Jerrell Mock continues to excel, Cole Rockhold continues to produce consistent performances, and Grant Fischer is thriving at the 10k. All of these signs point to good things from Colorado State at NCAA's. 7. Furman Paladins (0 / 7) Can we begin to give Furman the respect they deserve? The Paladins took the Southeast win by 54 points over a strong Virginia Tech squad. They placed two in the top 10 and all five in the top 20. Believe it or not, this team could definitely podium on Saturday. 6. Colorado Buffaloes (0 / 6) Rumors suggest that John Dressel is out for the season after being spotted in a boot at PAC 12's (although that is unconfirmed). Nonetheless, the Buffaloes are beginning to enter postseason form. Joe Klecker just won the individual regional title and the Buffs were only one point off from tying BYU for the 2nd automatic berth. Sure, BYU didn't run their full lineup, but Colorado has shown that they are postseason studs every year. 5. Portland Pilots (-1 / 4) My goodness, Portland's top three were on FIRE this past weekend! After Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse established a brutal pace early on (which eventually led to a win), he was able to pull Jeff Thies to a 2nd place finish while Nick Hauger finished 4th. However, Caleb Webb and Noah Schutte finished 27th and 29th respectfully which isn't the best sign ever from a depth standpoint. Still, the Pilots are in a great position to succeed at NCAA's this Saturday. 4. Syracuse Orangemen (+1 / 5) After their performance at Wisconsin, questions began to arise about how reliable Syracuse's 5th scorer was going to be this season. Yet, at ACC's, that skepticism was quickly put to rest. The Orangemen placed five in the top 10 and actually outscored the rest of the ACC field 27 to 28. It's just another lesson that we should never doubt Syracuse. 3. Stanford Cardinal (0 / 3) Stanford made it clear that they were simply trying to qualify for NCAA's. After moving their pack up throughout the first 8k of the race, Stanford began to make moves in the final 2k to establish themselves as one of the top teams in the field. No, they didn't place in the top two, but their 3rd finish without Ostberg and a limited effort is a pretty good sign. 2. BYU Cougars (0 / 2) 1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 1) Most of the teams in the Mountain region were simply trying to qualify for NCAA's. NAU walked away with the regional title with a 30 point win over 2nd place BYU. However, it's important to note that neither Casey Clinger nor Jonathan Harper ran for the Cougars. ADDED N/A KICKED OFF N/A JUST MISS (in no order) Eastern Kentucky Colonels Campbell Camels Princeton Tigers Illinois Fighting Illini' Alabama Crimson Tide Eastern Michigan Eagles Purdue Boilermakers WHO TO WATCH (in no order) Washington State Cougars Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders NC State Wolfpack SURPRISE OF THE WEEK Washington Huskies: In a field of elite talent and national powerhouses, Washington emerged at the top of the West region and secured an automatic berth to NCAA's. Most people expected the Huskies to qualify for NCAA's, but I don't think anyone expected them to do it in this fashion. TEAM OF THE WEEK Furman Paladins: For a team that is known for their depth and pack running, they showed incredible firepower and low-stick potential this past weekend at the Southeast region. They quietly dominated a solid Virginia Tech squad as well as a slew of other talented teams. NOTES - Middle Tennessee State's upset of Ole Miss would most likely put them at 26th in our rankings. #XC #rankings #ncaa #gzatlin #Top25 #regionals #analysis

KEY (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before. (#/#): First number indicates how much the individual has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. Colors may not show on mobile. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before. 50. Jacob Thomson, Senior, Kentucky (-2 / 48) It was an unfortunate finish to the Kentucky senior's collegiate cross country season as he faltered to 27th overall and missed out on NCAA's for the first time in his career. It was a tough finish, but you have to commend Thomson for some of the strong races he's had with the Wildcats during his cross country career. 49. Clayton Young, Junior, BYU (-2 / 47) Young finished 27th overall in the Mountain region, although even he made it clear that the race was not at 100% effort. 48. Josh Brickell, Rs. Senior, Furman (+2 / 50) 47. Aaron Templeton, Rs. Junior, Furman (+2 / 49) In the Southeast region, we saw Templeton put together a strong finish of 5th overall while Brickell held his own to snag 13th overall. The consistency these two have brought to Furman is extremely valuable. In all honesty, I am probably under ranking them at 47th and 48th. 46. Ben Veatch, Sophomore, Indiana (Wasn't Ranked) 28th at Wisconsin and back-to-back 4th place finishes in a conference and region known for its depth in the long distances is extremely impressive. The sophomores have been killing it this year and Ben Veatch is one of the leaders of this pack. 45. Andrew Johnston, Senior, Air Force (-1 / 44) It wasn't the best day for Johnston who finished 22nd overall in the Mountain region, but he has been so strong for the entire season. One slightly below average race is not something I'm too worried about. 44. Garrett Reynolds, Sophomore, UCLA (-1 / 43) In a race where there was no low-stick to lean on (Robert Brand was did not run), Reynolds took the reins as the squad leader and finished 14th overall to help the Bruins snag a spot to Nationals. 43. Sean Tobin, Senior, Mississippi (+2 / 45) If Ole Miss wanted to lock down the regional title, then they needed Tobin to have a big day. Sure enough, that is exactly what happened as Tobin put together a stellar performance to finish 6th overall. It is arguably the best race he has had this season. 42. Luis Grijalva, Freshman, Northern Arizona (0 / 42) Did not run. 41. Kasey Knevelbaard, Junior, Southern Utah (-4 / 37) The Southern Utah junior finished 21st in the Mountain region this past Friday. I'm still waiting for that breakout race from him... 40. Mike Tate, Rs. Senior, Southern Utah (-6 / 34) While I do believe that many of the Mountain region's best were taking it easy, I am still a little concerned about the 30th place finish from Mike Tate who was Southern Utah's 4th scorer on the day. What should we expect from him as we enter NCAA's this weekend? 39. Brian Barraza, Rs. Senior, Houston (+2 / 41) It was deja vu for Barraza at the South Central Regional Championships as he once again battled Emmanuel Rotich and once again settled for 2nd. Many of the top names in this field were conserving their best efforts for NCAA's, but 2nd in any region is still super impressive. 38. Nadeel Wildschutt, Freshman, Coastal Carolina (Wasn't Ranked) Whoa! Where did this guy come from? Wildschutt entered the Southeast region undefeated, although all four of his wins came at small, low-level meets. The Coastal Carolina South African recruit finished 4th in the Southeast region and earned a spot to NCAA's. His time (29:03) was also very strong for a freshman who had never raced a collegiate 10k before. 37. Cole Rockhold, Junior, Colorado State (+3 / 40) Another day, another under the radar finish from Colorado State's Cole Rockhold. The CSU junior finished 14th in the Mountain region this past weekend, and continued to cement himself as one of the most consistent and reliable runners in the western portion of the nation. He consistency has earned him a spot in the top 40. 36. Clark Ruiz, Rs. Senior, Michigan State (-1 / 35) After a strong 3rd place performance at BIG 10's, I thought the 10k distance would give Ruiz even more of an edge in the Great Lakes region. Unfortunately, Ruiz was able to close hard enough with the rest of the pack and fell back to 8th overall. It's not the most ideal finish for a low-stick like him, but 8th is hardly a poor finish itself. 35. Emmanuel Rotich, Junior, Tulane (-2 / 33) After grabbing a win over Houston's Brian Barraza at the AAC Championships, Rotich went back to work this past Friday where he once again defeated Barraza and took the South Central title. 34. Lawrence Kipkoech, Rs. Junior, Campbell (+2 / 36) After a season of average and unexciting finishes, Lawrence Kipkoech exploded at the Southeast Regional Championships and ripped off a monster time of 28:45 to take the Southeast regional crown. Clearly, adding an extra two kilometers only benefitted the Campbell veteran. 33. Oliver Hoare, Sophomore, Wisconsin (-1 / 32) After pulling off the upset win at BIG 10's, Hoare could no longer stay under the radar at the Great Lakes Regional Championship where he finished 3rd overall. For a sophomore who is racing experienced veterans who train specifically for the 10k, this was a great race for Hoare. With McDonald returning in 2018, Wisconsin could have one of the best 1-2 punches in the NCAA next year. 32. Ben Flanagan, Rs. Senior, Michigan (+7 / 39) You have to be happy for Ben Flanagan who missed the entirety of last cross country season with an injury and had a (somewhat) disappointing finish at BIG 10's where he finished 6th. Now he's a Great Lakes regional champion and is bringing his team to NCAA's with him. It just goes to show what kind of difference a 10k vs an 8k can make for some of these guys... 31. Casey Clinger, Freshman, BYU (-1 / 30) Did not run. 30. Connor McMillan, Rs. Junior, BYU (-1 / 29) With Clinger and Harper not in the lineup, the BYU men needed to be at their best. Sure enough, McMillan stepped up and delivered with a huge 4th place finish overall. Regardless of how conservative some racing styles became, a top five finish in the Mountain region is not something to ignore. 29. Alex Ostberg, Rs. Sophomore, Stanford (-1 / 28) Did not run this past weekend. He was most likely resting for NCAA's. 28. Nick Hauger, Rs. Junior, Portland (-1 / 27) see #22 & #23 27. Aidan Tooker, Sophomore, Syracuse (-2 / 25) 26. Colin Bennie, Senior, Syracuse (0 / 28) The 10k distance is a distance that the Syracuse men thrive at and we certainly saw that this past weekend after Bennie finished 2nd and Tooker finished 6th in the Northeast. Tooker has never raced the 10k distance before, so to place 6th overall is a solid finish for the youngster. Hopefully he won't be overwhelmed by the incredible mass of talent at NCAA's. 25. Geordie Beamish, Rs. Junior, Northern Arizona (-1 / 24) Beamish quietly finishes 12th overall in the Mountain region to help secure NAU's berth to NCAA's. 24. Jeff Thies, Rs. Senior, Portland (-1 / 23) 23. Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse, Sophomore, Portland (+14 / 37) The Portland men went to work in the West region this past weekend by taking three of the top four spots. ERL took the pace hard from the gun and was rewarded with an individual regional title while Thies finished 2nd overall. Hauger rounded out Portland's lethal top three with a 4th place finish overall. These men are clearly at another level and are ready to go at NCAA's. 22. Robert Brandt, Junior, UCLA (-2 / 20) Did not run this past weekend. Maybe the Bruins are simply just resting him for NCAA's? 21. Jack Bruce, Senior, Arkansas (-1 / 20) See #16 20. Peter Seufer, Junior, Virginia Tech (-3 / 17) Admittedly, it's going to be hard for Seufer to match his brilliant 2nd place finish at Pre-Nats. However, after placing 9th at the Southeast regional, it's safe to say that Seufer is a reliable low-stick who will at least produce a solid result in any race that he runs. 19. Jonathan Green, Rs. Senior, Georgetown (0 / 19) After winning the BIG East title, Jonathan Green went back to work this past Friday with another win at the Mid-Atlantic regional. This time, it was a three second win over Villanova's Casey Comber. 18. Jonathan Davis, Sophomore, Illinois (+4 / 22) After struggling at the BIG 10 Championships (although 9th isn't exactly "struggling"), I had my concerns as to how well Davis would do at the 10k distance. As it turns out, racing for two kilometers actually helped the Illinois sophomore who pulled off a huge win over Oklahoma State's Hassan Abdi. 17. Dillon Maggard, Senior, Utah State (+1 / 18) Just like I mentioned with Jerrell Mock, Dillon Maggard did enough to get himself and his squad into NCAA's after placing 7th overall in the Mountain region. 16. Alex George, Senior, Arkansas (0 / 16) While the rest of the field fought for placement, Jack Bruce and Alex George did what they had to and finished 5th and 7th overall and secured the Razorbacks a spot to NCAA's. I imagine there will be a greater sense of urgency in their racing on Saturday. 15. Hassan Abdi, Senior, Oklahoma State (-2 / 13) It was a great matchup between Abdi and Illinois' Jon Davis who both fought to the line in the Midwest region. In one of the bigger upsets of the weekend, Davis edged out Abdi to take the overall win. This is the first loss Abdi has had this year, but when it comes to a special talent like Davis, there isn't much to be upset about. 14. Azaria Kirwa, Junior, Liberty (+1 / 15) Kirwa has been a pleasant surprise for many fans of the sport this season. He has had top finishes in some of the most competitive meets in the nation. Now, he has been rewarded with a trip to the NCAA Championships after running 28:57 for 10k and finishing 3rd in an ultra deep Southeast region. As we enter NCAA's, this guy has shown no signs of slowing down. 13. Jerrell Mock, Rs. Senior, Colorado State (-1 / 12) 6th overall in a crazy deep Mountain region is something to be proud of. Admittedly, I don't think too many of the Mountain region's top low-sticks were going all-out for this race. Many were most likely trying to secure a spot to Nationals for themselves and their team. 12. Joe Klecker, Rs. Sophomore, Colorado (+2 / 14) The Colorado ace finished runner-up to Fisher and took down a deep field behind him. Klecker has had a really solid season, but PAC 12's was finally the race I was looking for him to have. 11. Amon Kemboi, Rs. Freshman, Campbell (0 / 11) The Campbell freshman continues to impress us with a 28:53 10k to finish 2nd overall to teammate Lawrence Kipkoech. I was a little concerned about how he would handle the longer distance, but with a sub-29 minute time in cross country, there don't seem to be any concerns. 10. Alfred Chelanga, Junior, Alabama (0 / 10) 9. Gilbert Kigen, Junior, Alabama (0 / 9) 8. Vincent Kiprop, Junior, Alabama (0 / 8) Yes, Choge did finish ahead of Vincent Kiprop (who was 4th), but the message is clear that this group is still elite at the 10k distance. 8th, 9th, and 10th may be a slight under-ranking for such a talented trio. 7. Jacob Choge, Sophomore, Middle Tennessee State (0 / 7) Leading up to the Regional Championships, no one had ever finished between the Alabama trio. Choge did defeat them earlier this season at the Crimson Classic, but the South region was the first time we saw the Alabama trio have three runners cross the line together. Choge's 3rd place finish was enough to get himself and his team into NCAA's. 6. Andy Trouard, Rs. Senior, Northern Arizona (-2 / 4) 5. Matthew Baxter, Rs. Senior, Northern Arizona (0 / 5) 4. Tyler Day, Junior, Northern Arizona (+2 / 6) It was just another day at the office for this NAU trio who finished 3rd (Day), 5th (Baxter), and 18th (Trouard) overall. It wasn't the best finish for Trouard who has been at the top of the results for most of the season, but when the Lumberjacks toe the line at NCAA's, all of them will be ready to perform at their highest level. 3. Rory Linkletter, Junior, BYU (0 / 3) BYU made it clear that their goal was to simply qualify for NCAA's. In this past Friday, they did more than that thanks to Rory Linkletter leading the way with a 2nd place finish (behind Colorado's Joe Klecker) to help the Cougars earn the 2nd automatic berth. 2. Grant Fisher, Junior, Stanford (0 / 2) 1. Justyn Knight, Senior, Syracuse (0 / 1) While Knight cruised to an easy win in the Northeast region, Fisher tempoed the West region with a conservative effort to place 11th overall. None of these are surprising results. With preliminary stage done, the real showdown between these two will take place this Saturday. ADDED Ben Veatch (Indiana) Nadeel Wildschutt (Coastal Carolina) DROPPED John Dressel (Colorado) (Formerly #31) Alex Palm (New Mexico) (Formerly #46) JUST MISS (in no order) Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) Thomas Pollard (Iowa State) Sam Worley (Texas) Nahom Soloman (Georgia Tech) Steven Fahy (Stanford) Mahmoud Moussa (Washington) Brent Demarest (Virginia) Lachlan Cook (Virginia) Hyluner Andresson (Eastern Michigan) Edwin Kurgat (Tenn. - Martin) Joe Hardy (Wisconsin) Cameron Griffith (Arkansas) Yusuke Uchikoshi (Boise State) Philo Germano (Syracuse) Ryan Forsyth (Colorado) Eduardo Herrera (Colorado) Kigen Chemadi (MTSU) WHO TO WATCH (in no order) Colby Gilbert (Washington) Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan) Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State) Conor Lundy (Princeton) Andrew Marston (Villanova) Michael Williams (Washington State) Thomas Ratcliffe (Stanford) Sylvester Barus (Oklahoma State) Colin Abert (Penn State) SURPRISE OF THE WEEK Hyluner Andresson (Eastern Michigan): Despite unimpressive finishes at Notre Dame and Wisconsin, Eastern Michigan's Hyluner Andresson came out of nowhere to have a huge 2nd place finish at the Great Lakes region. Can he repeat that performance five days from now? RUNNER OF THE WEEK Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse (Portland): In an interview with Flotrack following the Wisconsin Invite, Coach Conner talked about the Pilots new star transfer from France and how he had experience racing the 10k in cross country on the world stage. This past Friday, that was very much evident as ERL established a hard pace that he never relinquished. It will be very exciting to see what this guy can bring to the NCAA field on Saturday... NOTES - Rumors suggest that John Dressel is out for the season after being spotted in a boot. #rankings #Top50 #XC #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis #regionals

NOTE: These predictions are the same as our KOLAS projections. If these predictions were to be 100% true, they would follow the logic of our KOLAS projections. Midwest Analysis The Midwest is always an underrated region in regards to talent, but it's relatively easy to figure out that Hassan Abdi is the favorite to win it all this year. The Oklahoma State senior enters regionals undefeated and is easily the most successful runner in this field at the 10k distance. After Abdi, I like to think that Thomas Pollard's experience and history of success in the postseason gives him an edge at this meet. With a proven ability to run the 10k, these two individuals should be the names to watch. However, we also need to keep an eye on Luis Martinez who almost pulled off the upset win at BIG 12's. Youngsters like Andrew Jordan and Jonathan Davis are two incredible talents that have been on fire this season, but they don't have quite the same experience that some of these other guys do. Will they be able to handle the expectations of being a low-stick in the 10k? The headline for the team race is an exciting one as Oklahoma State will look to avenge their three point loss to Iowa State at the BIG 12 Championships. Both of these teams have a strong and reliable top two, but their final scorers haven't always been the most consistent this season. Still, Iowa State looks like they have the advantage as we evaluate the rest of their top five. Dan Curts and Stanley Langat had great finishes at BIG 12's by placing 6th and 11th overall, but you have to wonder if a miler like Curts and a JUCO transfer like Langat will be able to make a smooth transition to the 10k. Oklahoma State has plenty of talent on their side as well, but with Ryan Smeeton being just a freshman and Sylvestar Barus yet to match his performance from the Cowboy Jamboree, it seems as though Oklahoma State doesn't have the firepower to beat out ISU. Illinois is also a team that could scare for a top two spot, but their final two scorers will need to stick with the top group and their gaps will need be tightened. On paper, they can compete with Iowa State and Oklahoma State, but all five of their scorers will need to run their best on the same day (something we haven't quite seen from them this season). Minnesota is another program that should in the qualifying picture given their history of success at Regionals, but they are also very inconsistent squad which is evident by comparing their performance at Wisconsin to their performance at BIG 10's. Individuals 1. Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State) 2. Thomas Pollard (Iowa State) 3. Luis Martinez (Oklahoma State) 4. Andrew Jordan (Iowa State) 5. Jonathan Davis (Illinois) 6. Obsa Ali (Minnesota) 7. Jesse Reiser (Illinois) 8. Ben Preisner (Tulsa) 9. Stanley Langat (Iowa State) 10. Dan Curts (Iowa State) 11. Sylvester Barus (Oklahoma State) 12. Wyatt McGuire (Nebraska) 13. Noah Gade (Oklahoma State) 14. Christopher Orlow (Eastern Illinois) 15. Jake Hoffert (Bradley) Teams 1. Iowa State Cyclones 2. Oklahoma State Cowboys 3. Illinois Fighting Illini' 4. Minnesota Golden Gophers 5. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes Great Lakes Analysis The Great Lakes region has always been one of the more entertaining regions in the NCAA as national contenders like Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Indiana constantly clash and fight for the last few qualifying spots to Nationals. In 2017, the individual battle will not be an easy one to decide even with Morgan McDonald no longer in the picture. Just like the BIG 10 Championships, the champion will most likely come down to Clark Ruiz, Ben Flanagan, and Oliver Hoare. One of the biggest surprises from two weeks ago was seeing Wisconsin's Oliver Hoare and Joe Hardy upset the BIG 10 field and finish 1-2 against a slew of experienced veterans. Meanwhile, Ben Flanagan and Clark Ruiz should theoretically thrive at the Great Lakes regional meet as the racing distance transitions to a 10k. Ruiz has had great success in the 10k before, so this could his year to take advantage of his new-found fitness. Others like Jaret Carpenter, Ben Veatch, and Morgan Beadlescomb have been nice surprises this season, but I'm still waiting for Euan Makepeace to replicate his performance at the Commodore Classic (where he upset Jacob Choge) and for Evan Stifel to regain this 2016 fitness. I see the team race coming down to Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. In this field, the Wolverines have the best and most experienced top three, the Spartans have the most complete overall squad (in relation to their top runners), and the Badgers have the best 1-2 punch (as well as the fear of potentially missing out on Nationals to keep them motivated). Wisconsin is still a bit younger with Olin Hacker and Morgan McDonald not in the lineup, so I'm not sure how well they will handle such a big stage where so much is being asked of them. As for Michigan and Michigan State, the race will come down to who has the better 4th and 5th scorers. At BIG 10's, that team was Michigan. Can MSU use the extra 2k of racing distance to cover their gaps between Michigan? Individuals 1. Clark Ruiz (Michigan State) 2. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin) 3. Ben Flanagan (Michigan) 4. Joe Hardy (Wisconsin) 5. Jaret Carpenter (Purdue) 6. Ben Veatch (Indiana) 7. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan) 8. Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State) 9. Euan Makepeace (Butler) 10. Connor Mora (Michigan) 11. Curt Eckstein (Purdue) 12. Bryce Stroede (Oakland) 13. Hyluner Andresson (Eastern Michigan) 14. Ryan Robinson (Michigan State) 15. Kyle Mau (Indiana) 16. Ben Eidenschink (Wisconsin) 17. Billy Bund (Michigan) 18. Jesse Hersha (Michigan State) 19. Evan Stifel (Ohio State) 20. Barry Keane (Butler) Teams 1. Michigan Wolverines 2. Michigan State Spartans 3. Wisconsin Badgers 4. Purdue Boilermakers 5. Eastern Michigan Eagles 6. Indiana Hoosiers 7. Butler Bulldogs South Central Analysis The individual race in the South Central region is a difficult one to predict. With Arkansas and Texas looking like locks to place in the top two, we may see them put together a more conservative effort in preparation for NCAA's. If Arkansas and Texas were to give less than 100% effort, then it is very possible that Tulane's Emmanuel Rotich could find an opening to take the win, a scenario that actually took place last year. Of course, other top-tier individuals like Alex George, Jack Bruce, and Brian Barraza have shown glimpses of brilliance this season. If the race is honest, then those three names could also be contenders for the title. As we shift our conversation to the team race, it seems rather obvious that Arkansas and Texas will be the top two teams in this field. No other team in this field has the firepower or the depth that these two powerhouse programs have. Individuals 1. Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane) 2. Alex George (Arkansas) 3. Jack Bruce (Arkansas) 4. Brian Barraza (Houston) 5. Andrew Ronoh (Arkansas) 6. Alex Riba (Texas A&M) 7. Stanley Limoh (UT-Lafayette) 8. Cameron Griffith (Arkansas) 9. Sam Worley (Texas) 10. Alex Rogers (Texas) 11. Justin Domangue (UT-Arlington) 12. Christian Farris (Texas A&M) 13. John Rice (Texas) 14. Austen Dalquist (Arkansas) 15. Connor O'Neill (Texas) Teams 1. Arkansas Razorbacks 2. Texas Longhorns 3. Texas A&M Aggies Mountain Analysis The final race we have left to address is the Mountain region. It is so difficult to figure out how this race will play out for a variety of reasons. Some teams may not run certain individuals ( see BYU rumors here ) while other squads may not race at 100% effort if they believe that they will get into NCAA's regardless of where they finish (within reason). At the same time, we are also left with a massive group of elite long-distance runners that we must sort through. With so much firepower in one regional race, we could potentially see some of these superstars thrive or crumble under the pressure. NAU's top three will most likely be fighting with the BYU duo of Linkletter and Young as each group looks to secure their team's berth to NCAA's early on in the race. Others Jerrell Mock, Dillon Maggard, Joe Klecker, and Andrew Johnston are low-sticks that will also have the pressure of keeping their teams in qualifying contention. As we evaluate the team race, BYU and NAU seem like the obvious candidates to take the top two spots. Of course, if BYU is actually resting three of their top seven like some rumors suggest, then we could see other teams like Colorado, Colorado State, or Southern Utah potentially scare the Cougars for the 2nd automatic berth. Then again, BYU is arguably the deepest team in the nation. There is still a very good chance that they snag a top two spot even without Clinger, Harper, and Carney. Most of the top teams in the Mountain region seem relatively safe in their quest to make it to NCAA's. In fact, The Stride Report's Kolas projections have five of the first six "at-large" selections going to teams in the Mountain region. Out of the potential qualifiers in this region, the New Mexico Lobos are the only team that should really be concerned. Unless they finish ahead of at least one of seven teams listed below, it doesn't look like they'll qualify for the Big Dance. Their only hope is to get pushed into NCAA's by defeating a team with more Kolas points. Individuals 1. Rory Linkletter (BYU) 2. Clayton Young (BYU) 3. Matthew Baxter (NAU) 4. Tyler Day (NAU) 5. Andy Trouard (NAU) 6. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State) 7. Dillon Maggard (Utah State) 8. Joe Klecker (Colorado) 9. Andrew Johnston (Air Force) 10. Geordie Beamish (NAU) 11. Mike Tate (Southern Utah) 12. Connor McMillan (BYU) 13. Casey Clinger (BYU) (?) 14. Luis Grijalva (NAU) 15. Daniel Carney (BYU) (?) 16. Ryan Forsyth (Colorado) 17. Alex Palm (New Mexico) 18. Cole Rockhold (Colorado State) 19. Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah) 20. Jacob Bilvado (Air Force) Teams 1. NAU Lumberjacks 2. BYU Cougars 3. Colorado Buffaloes 4. Colorado State Rams 5. Southern Utah Thunderbirds 6. Air Force Falcons 7. Utah State Aggies 8. New Mexico Lobos #gzatlin #analysis #predictions #preview #XC #ncaa #regionals

With regionals week upon us, most men’s teams are preparing to race their first 10k of the season. For those that advance to NCAA’s, they will run a second 10k just eight days later. Unless a team ran at the Arkansas Chile Pepper Festival this year, most athletes have been running no more 8k up until this point. Yet, in two of the most important races of the season, they will have to run 2k longer. This element of racing has always intrigued me as one of the more underrated elements of teams that exceed or fail to meet expectations. It appears that the teams that best handle this change tend to run their best at NCAAs regardless of who they have running or what the conditions are. Sometimes you will see a team struggle if they are filled with more middle-distance and mile specialty athletes, or if they raced someone two weeks in a row who was just not ready to run a 10k. With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at our top 10 teams and give each a grade on how ready they appear, from an outsider’s perspective, to run two 10k’s in eight days. NOTE: This article is based purely on past XC and Track results with an attempt to predict fitness based on current season results (if they haven’t run a 10k before). This is not necessarily a prediction of where teams will finish since some guys have gained a lot of fitness since this past track season. 10. Southern Utah: C+ Southern Utah has been one of the nicer surprises on the NCAA this year after their big upset win over Colorado at the Piane Notre Dame Invitational and a solid 7th place showing at Wisconsin. Looking ahead, however, they may struggle a bit at 10k solely based on their lack of experience. Only their second man at BIG Sky’s (Matthew Wright) has ever broken 30 minutes for a 10k on the track. Yes, Mike Tate did run 13:34 over 5k last track season and was conference champ at 10k over NAU’s top runners, albeit in 30:28, but you would have to assume that he is worth at least 29:20 given what NAU’s distance guys ran last year. After those top two, the Thunderbirds top five has Josh Collins and George Espino who are both more middle-distance type athletes. They also have Kasey Knevelbaard who has run 13:50 for a 5k, but has never run a 10k on the track. Knevelbaard has been Southern Utah’s 2nd man at two big invitationals this year, but he struggled down the stretch last year coming in 47th and 180th at regionals and NCAA’s respectively. If we are going by these numbers, then it is clear that SUU is going to need to have done the necessary training to ensure their fitness in 2017 can handle the 10k’s if they are going to make a top 10 finish at Nationals truly possible. 9. Arkansas Razorbacks: A When you look at Arkansas on paper, it is very easy to see why many had them ranked in the top five pre-season and even as high as #1 in some polls. The only reason I didn’t give them an A+ is because some of their guys lack the fast 10k times you’d expect they’re capable of. Still, just take look at this roster: Alex George: 13:40 5k (15th) @ 2016 NCAA XC Jack Bruce: 13:38 5k (19th) @ 2016 NCAA XC Cameron Griffith: 13:52 5k (48th) @ 2016 NCAA XC Andrew Ronoh: 28:36 10k Austen Dalquist: 13:58 5k, 30:12 10k @ 2017 Chile Pepper XC Wow, that lineup is loaded with guys that have 10k ability on the track or grass. The x-factor is really Andrew Ronoh who has yet to follow up his lightning fast 10k time with an equivalent performance on the grass. If he is able to match that 10k performance, that would put him in the top 20 at Nationals and most likely match the finishes of his teammates Alex George and Jack Bruce. If that happens, then the Razorbacks suddenly have a potent top three. One thing to note is that Cameron Griffith did not run at regionals last year, but still placed 48th at NCAA’s. It seems like that was some smart decision making by the Arkansas coaching staff, which is encouraging as we head into the final stretch of this season. 8. Colorado State: B+ In reality, this grade is really carried by CSU’s top two guys (on the track): Jerrell Mock (28:11 10k) and Grant Fischer (28:45 10k). Both of those times are elite at the national level and both runners have shown an ability to run with the NCAA’s best on the grass as well. Eric Hamer is the only other top five guy with 10k experience as he ran 30:00 last outdoor season. Other guys like Cole Rockhold and Trent Powell have a history of being middle-distance oriented. Ultimately this team is diverse in distances, which means, if handled correctly, the Rams may either run at or above their talent level and challenge for a top five finish. Then again, they could also fade down at NCAA’s with two straight 10k’s and find themselves on the outside of the top 10 at Nationals. 7. Furman: A- Although they may lack a sub 29:00 performer in the 10k (which keeps them from getting an A), the Furman Paladins understand that depth can be the name of the game in cross country. Josh Brickell, Tanner Hinkle, and Frank Lara have all run sub 29:35 in the 10k which gives the Paladins a solid contingent of pure distance guys that should be ready for the longer distances at Regionals and Nationals. We also can’t forget Aaron Templeton who has historically run much better than his track times would suggest, and Troy Reeder who has run 8:36 in the steeple and 13:59 in the 5k. This team looks primed and ready for the big time 10k’s and if they can run to their potential, this #7 ranking will look smart, and who knows? Maybe even a little bit of an underestimation… 6. Colorado: B- As we evaluate the Buffaloes, we have to look at Joe Klecker who has never run a 10k on the track, but his 28th place performance at Nationals last year helps. Colorado's grade was rounded up from a C+ almost entirely due to the “Wetmore Factor”. On this year’s top five, only Ryan Forsyth has run a “good” 10k with his 29:32 performance from last outdoors. After him and Klecker, it’s guys like Eduardo Herrera, Adam Peterman, and Zach Perrin who are more 3k steeple and below types based on their past cross country performances at 10k. The apparent absence of John Dressel also hurts this team. If Dressel were to return at regionals and Wetmore work his magic once again, then this grade becomes purely meaningless and the Buffaloes will find themselves on the podium once again. 5. Syracuse: A Unsurprisingly, one of the best teams in the NCAA over the past four years earned a grade in the A range. Their top three of Justyn Knight, Colin Bennie, and Philo Germano have all run sub 29:05 in the 10k (if you assume Knight could do it, which based on his 29:27 at NCAA XC last year seems reasonable) and have been All-Americans in XC. Those three have the experience and will be ready to go when they hit the 10k. Their next two guys, Aidan Tooker and Joe Dragon, are why they did not get an A+ grade since these two add some uncertainty. Tooker is a fantastic steepler with an 8:39 personal best while Dragon has been running well above his track personal bests this season, so it seems like Coach Fox might have these guys ready to go for the 10k. Fox is also a coach who has historically rested his guys at regionals, and given how much better the Orangemen appear than the rest of the Northeast field this year, that may happen again. Potentially resting some of their athletes could set ‘Cuse up for a great shot at the podium. 4. Portland: B- The Portland Pilots always seem to be a surprise team every year. I think part of people’s surprise is that they somehow manage a top 10 team finish with a bunch of guys who, on paper, have no business being on a top 10 team. It is the magic from Rob Connor that really kept their grade above a C. Historically, he has made the most of what little he has had (on paper). Only Nick Hauger has ever run a 10k on the track where he ran 30:09 last outdoor season (so not exactly spectacular), and yet, he finished 9th at Wisconsin. Similarly, Jeff Thies and Emmanuel Roudolff-Levisse may lack superb 10k times on the track, but they were both in the top 15 at Wisconsin as well. It would appear that Connor has those three ready to run much better than their times would suggest. The problem appears to be at the 4th and 5th men with Caleb Webb and Logan Orndoff who have never run anything above a 5k on the track and are not running as well as the top three. Of course, Connor controversially rested everyone here expect Thies and Hauger at the West Coast Conference Championship meet. Perhaps he has a trick up his sleeve to ensure that the Pilots will find themselves on the podium in Terre Haute. 3. Stanford: B Given all the talent that Stanford has, and combined with their great performance at PAC-12’s, I could not justify giving them lower than a B. Grant Fisher has run 13:30 for 5k on the track and 29:55 for 10k in XC, so really it’s safe to assume he is at least worth 29:00 for 10k on the track and that is most definitely an underestimation. Stanford also has Blair Hurlock who ran 29:50 last outdoor season. That’s two guys under 30 minutes who should be ready to handle the big boy 10k for the last two meets of the season. After them, however, Stephen Fahy, Alex Ostberg, and Tai Dinger are all inexperienced with anything longer than 5k on the track or 8k on the grass. After seeing Ostberg’s 4th place finish at PAC-12’s, it appears that he is beginning to peak at the right time, which should help Stanford’s chances at NCAA’s. If Jack Keelan and Sam Wharton were running like their past selves, this would be a totally different conversation and the Cardinal would have gotten an A- or even an A. Yet, even with them struggling, Coach Miltenberg and the Cardinal have the talent and depth to mix and match at the next two meets to find the right formula to get back on the podium at Nationals. 2. BYU: A+ This top grade for BYU is really due to both performances on paper and also their fantastic performances this year. On paper the Cougars have 4 guys who have run under 29:15 for the 10k on the track. Even more impressive is that 29:05 Jon Harper has not been in the top 5 at either of BYU’s last two races, and to me, that says more about guys like Casey Clinger and Daniel Carney being super fit rather than a slight on Harper. With Rory Linkletter and Clayton Young running up to the 28:58 and 28:45 potential that they have respectively shown, the pair are now leaders of a very fit and tightly compressed pack that Coach Ed Eyestone has developed. Unlike BYU teams that may have struggled over the final stretch in the past, this team looks primed to be peaking at the right time. As this grade suggests, they are very serious contenders to dethrone NAU and walk away from Terre Haute as national champions. 1. NAU: A- This grade may seem a bit surprising to many people who consider NAU and BYU as teams that are both deserving of the #1 spot this year. However, when you look at where NAU is vulnerable compared to BYU, 10k depth becomes an area of concern. The Lumberjacks do have three guys in Matt Baxter, Tyler Day, and Cory Glines and who have run under 29:15 in the 10k, but the problem is that Glines does not appear to be in that type of fitness based on his results this year which knocks NAU’s grade down a bit. What brings that grade back up has been the breakout season from Andy Trouard (who fun fact, has been 3rd in all four races he’s run in this year). He has shown he is not just a good miler and 5k guy on the track, but he looks ready to be a sure fire All-American in cross country as well. The reason they still grade out lower than BYU ultimately comes down to uncertainty surrounding Luis Grijalva, Geordie Beamish, and Peter Lomong. All three of these guys have not shown the versatility to step up to 10k quite yet. Although Grijalva has been very impressive as a freshman this year, you just never know how younger guys will react to the 10k (just look at Justyn Knight in 2014). Nonetheless, Mike Smith has assembled enough talent and depth to keep me confident in this grade. They may have grade below BYU in this element of the race, but if NAU’s top guys can maintain what they have been doing and pull their pack along with them, then there is no reason that the Lumberjacks can’t defend their national title. #XC #analysis #jboyle #ncaa #regionals #Nationals

NOTE: These predictions are the same as our KOLAS projections. If these predictions were to be 100% true, they would follow the logic of our KOLAS projections. NORTHEAST Analysis Admittedly, the Northeast region is rather predictable this year. Justyn Knight is the clear-cut favorite to take it all while his teammates are expected to flank him for most of the race. The goal for these Syracuse individuals is to simply pull away from the field and secure their spot to NCAA's. Iona's Chartt Miller and Gilbert Kirui are two experienced veterans who have had success at the longer distances. However, Kirui is (apparently) coming off of an injury that held him back from competing during the entire regular season. Will he be fit enough to be an impact runner at the 10k distance? Other names to keep an eye out for will be Ryan Thomas (Columbia) and Paul Luevano (Boston U). Both of these athletes walked away as conference champions two weeks ago. Hopefully, they'll be able to continue that momentum on Friday. From a team perspective, this race is also pretty easy to decide when talking about the top two automatic qualifying spots. Syracuse has simply been the better team throughout the 2017 season with firepower that very few teams can match. At the Wisconsin Invite, many questioned the reliability of their 5th scorer. However, at ACC's, the skeptics were quickly dismissed as their 5th scorer (Joe Dragon) finished 9th overall. Iona hasn't looked as strong as they have historically been (especially after their Wisconsin performance), but with Gilbert Kirui back in the lineup and Chartt Miller expected to rebound, the Gaels seem to be in a good spot to secure the 2nd automatic berth to NCAA's. Behind Syracuse and Iona is where things get interesting. Columbia had an impressive showing at the Ivy League Championships by placing four in the top 10, but fell to Princeton who simply had too much firepower. If the Lions can replicate that kind of pack running at regionals, then they could be primed for a huge upset. Individuals 1. Justyn Knight (Syracuse) 2. Colin Bennie (Syracuse) 3. Chartt Miller (Iona) 4. Aidan Tooker (Syracuse) 5. Gilbert Kirui (Iona) 6. Philo Germano (Syracuse) 7. Ryan Thomas (Columbia) 8. Sean Burke (Boston College) 9. Kevin James (Syracuse) 10. Kenny Vasbinder (Columbia) 11. Johannes Motschmann (Iona) 12. Liam Dee (Iona) 13. Paul Luevano (Boston U) 14. Andrew Tario (Iona) 15. Dominic DeLuca (Cornell) Teams 1. Syracuse Orangemen 2. Iona Gaels 3. Columbia Lions 4. Army West Point SOUTHEAST Analysis The Southeast region is an exciting region to talk about this year. There are so many new up-and-coming names that are beginning to emerge as legitimate contenders on the national stage. Because of this, the Southeast region will be very competitive and very deep. In reality, almost anyone could walk away with the regional crown. However, the most consistent performer this season has been Campbell's Amon Kemboi who has been closely followed by Liberty's Azaria Kirwa on multiple occasions. Kemboi got the best of Kirwa at the BIG South Championships, but it was only by two seconds. Could we see the roles reversed on Friday? In-state rivals Brent Demarest and Peter Seufer will be another great matchup to watch. After struggling at Wisconsin, Demarest pulled out an incredible 2nd place finish at ACC's to once again establish himself as a true ace. Seufer, who was 2nd at Pre-Nats, didn't have his best day at ACC's where he placed 7th overall. We also can't forget about Jacob Thomson who has been very consistent throughout this entire season. An experienced veteran like Thomson should do well at the 10k distance and give him an edge against a field that is relatively young. From a team perspective, Furman and Virginia Tech are the favorites to grab the top two spots. Furman's depth is arguably the best in the NCAA when you consider how experienced they are and how consistent they have been. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech can attribute much of their success to low-stick Peter Seufer and #2 man Dan Jaskowak. With a strong top two and slew of reliable scorers, the Hokies have been able to thrive in some of the most competitive meets in the nation this year like the Greater Louisville Classic, Pre-Nats, and ACC's. They are deep through seven scorers, but they'll need to close their gaps to compete with Furman. Other programs like Campbell , Eastern Kentucky , NC State , and Virginia are all programs that will be fighting for a spot to NCAA's. Campbell has arguably the best top four in the field, but their 5th man is lacking. Eastern Kentucky is a complete squad through five men, but they haven't been all that consistent. NC State is deep and experienced, but without a low-stick, they may not be able to separate themselves from the field. Virginia's top three runners are some of the best in the Southeast region, but their underclassmen at the 4th and 5th scoring positions have not been reliable. Individuals 1. Amon Kemboi (Campbell) 2. Azaria Kirwa (Liberty) 3. Brent Demarest (Virginia) 4. Peter Seufer (Virginia Tech) 5. Jacob Thomson (Kentucky) 6. Erick Rotich (Eastern Kentucky) 7. Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell) 8. Aaron Templeton (Furman) 9. Josh Brickell (Furman) 10. Lachlan Cook (Virginia) 11. Dan Jaskowak (Virginia Tech) 12. Tanner Hinkle (Furman) 13. Tom Nobles (Charlotte) 14. James Quattlebaum (Clemson) 15. Meshack Kipruto (Campbell) 16. Frank Lara (Furman) 17. Troy Reeder (Furman) 18. Vincent Ciattei (Virginia Tech) 19. Jamaine Coleman (Eastern Kentucky) 20. Justin Moakler (Morehead State) Teams 1. Furman Paladins 2. Virginia Tech Hokies 3. Campbell Camels 4. Eastern Kentucky Colonels 5. NC State Wolfpack 6. Virginia Cavaliers WEST Analysis Sure, Edward Cheserek has graduated, but Grant Fisher is still a top-tier ace who will be the heavy favorite when he toes the starting line on Friday. After Fisher crosses the line, any spot is up for grabs. Alex Ostberg has looked awfully good this season after placing 12th at Wisconsin and 4th at PAC 12's. He will once again battle against the men from Portland who have proven to be one of the bigger surprises of this season. We may have him at 7th in our predictions, but Emmanuel Rouldolff-Levisse is someone who could make some noise this weekend. The french transfer has experience on the global cross country championship stage back in Europe and based on comments made in interviews by the Portland team, ERL has apparently run 29 minutes and change in the 10k before. With this information in mind, he should be able to handle the transition to 10k quite well. Others like Cooper Teare and Garrett Reynolds have had strong performances all season, but their youth and lack of experience could be an interesting factor to consider when they race 2000 meters longer. The top two teams in this meet will most likely be Stanford and Portland. These teams have a strong group of scorers up front and haven't shown too much weakness at the 4th and 5th scoring positions (although Stanford's last few scorers have been inexperienced freshmen). Both of these teams would need to tragically fall apart during the race to not place in the top two. As we transition to the other teams, things begin to get a bit more crowded. For the 2nd year in a row, UCLA pulled off an upset against Oregon at PAC 12's to establish themselves as the favorites to place 3rd this Friday. With Matthew Maton no longer in the lineup, UCLA's combination of Robert Brandt and Garrett Reynolds gives the Bruins a low-stick advantage that the Ducks simply don't have. Boise State is in a similar situation as UCLA, but they have lacked consistency, especially from their top ace Yusuke Uchikoshi has not been himself this season. On paper, Boise State is a team that can place 3rd at this meet, but now we just need to see it. Washington and Washington State are also two teams that will battle it out with the rest of the field. They have the experience and depth on their side, but gaps and inconsistency will be their biggest weakness in a large race like this. Individuals 1. Grant Fisher (Stanford) 2. Alex Ostberg (Stanford) 3. Jeff Thies (Portland) 4. Robert Brandt (UCLA) 5. Nick Hauger (Portland) 6. Emmanuel Rouldolff-Levisse (Portland) 7. Miler Haller (Boise State) 8. Steven Fahy (Stanford) 9. Michael Williams (Washington State) 10. Yusuke Uchikoshi (Boise State) 11. Troy Fraley (Gonzaga) 12. Cooper Teare (Oregon) 13. Garrett Reynolds (UCLA) 14. Thomas Madden (UC Davis) 15. Trent Brendel (California) 16. Tanner Anderson (Oregon) 17. Ben Alcock (San Francisco) 18. Jack Keelan (Stanford) 19. Andrew Gardner (Washington) 20. Chandler Tiegen (Washington State) Teams 1. Stanford Cardinal 2. Portland Pilots 3. UCLA Bruins 4. Oregon Ducks 5. Boise State Broncos 6. Washington Huskies 7. Washington State Cougars 8. California Golden Bears 9. San Francisco Dons MID-ATLANTIC Analysis The individual battle will most likely be won by Jonathan Green who is on his 2017 comeback tour by consistently stringing together strong performances. Hopefully, Colin Abert and Andrew Marston will make Green work for his title. Those three will be the candidates primed for a potential upset. At the same time, you can't count out Conor Lundy. His performances in 2017 haven't been quite as strong as his 2016 results, but he is certainly an x-factor that can never be ruled out. The Mid-Atlantic region will most likely be the region where we see the most Kolas points given out to other teams. In my mind, Georgetown's history of success paired with their depth and superstar low-stick gives them the edge that others teams just don't have. Sure, they haven't been super impressive this season, but have enough to defend their regional title. After Georgetown, the 2nd automatic berth that becomes a little more uncertain. After such a dominant performance at the Ivy League Championships, Princeton is looking like the team that is favored to grab the 2nd spot. Princeton may have impressed many of us at Heps, but the other teams in this field simply failed to show a "wow" factor. Penn State fell to 8th at BIG 10's, Penn dropped to 91 points and 3rd overall at Heps, Navy was edged out by Army at the Patriot League Championships, and Villanova was upset by Butler at BIG East's. Individuals 1. Jonathan Green (Georgetown) 2. Colin Abert (Penn State) 3. Andrew Marston (Villanova) 4. Casey Comber (Villanova) 5. Conor Lundy (Princeton) 6. Noah Kaupila (Princeton) 7. Reilly Bloomer (Georgetown) 8. Jack Van Scoter (Georgetown) 9. Garrett O'Toole (Princeton) 10. Patrick Reilly (Lehigh) 11. Tim McGowan (Penn State) 12. Cory Donley (Navy) 13. Kevin Murray (Navy) 14. Spencer Brown (Georgetown) 15. Christopher Luciano (Penn) Teams 1. Georgetown Hoyas 2. Princeton Tigers 3. Penn State Nittany Lions 4. Navy Midshipmen SOUTH Analysis Any time Alabama races, it seems rather obvious that their top three will secure six points. On Friday, I don't see that scenario changing as the 10k distance only benefits these three even more. Of course, they will not have an easy time trying to stay together. They lost to MTSU ace, Jacob Choge, earlier this season and will need to battle him again. I'd also like to point out that Edwin Kurgat deserves plenty of respect in this race. He has quietly been one of the best performers in the southern portion of the NCAA this season after finshing 9th at the Greater Louisville Classic, 5th at the Crimson Classic (behind the Alabama trio and Choge), and later went on to win a very underrated Ohio Valley Conference title. Others like Sean Tobin, Nahom Solomon, and Bryan Kamau have all shown that they can be contenders at any big-meet, but there are plenty of sleepers that could potentially upset them. The South region team race is where the biggest debate of the season is finally answered. Ole Miss has looked strong throughout most of the season after placing 5th at Pre-Nats while Middle Tennessee State has been quietly finished 6th at the Greater Louisville Classic and 1st at the Crimson Classic over Alabama (on a tie-breaker). Of course, it's hard to forget that the Crimson Tide pulled off a huge upset at SEC's where they upended Ole Miss by one point to finish 2nd overall. The team race between these three is close and unfortunately, one team is going to be left outside of the top two. If that team is Mississippi, it won't be much of an issue due to the amount of Kolas points they already have. If it's Middle Tennessee State or Alabama, then one of them may not make it to the Big Dance. At the end of the day, I just don't see Ole Miss losing. They are too deep and too experienced for teams without a complete top five to upset them (again). As we transition to the 10k distance, I trust MTSU's final two scorers more than Alabama's final two scorers. For that reason alone, I have Alabama placing 3rd overall. Individuals 1. Vincent Kiprop (Alabama) 2. Gilbert Kigen (Alabama) 3. Alfred Chelanga (Alabama) 4. Jacob Choge (MTSU) 5. Edwin Kurgat (Tenn. - Martin) 6. Sean Tobin (Mississippi) 7. Nahom Solomon (Georgia Tech) 8. Bryan Kamau (Georgia) 9. Arsene Guillorel (Samford) 10. Derek Gutierrez (Mississippi) 11. Zach Long (Tennessee) 12. Gilbert Boit (Tenn. Tech) 13. Kigen Chemadi (MTSU) 14. Parker Scott (Mississippi) 15. Austin Sprague (Georgia) 16. David Barney (Florida State) 17. Kevin Wyss (Auburn) 18. Parker Scott (Mississippi) 19. Wesley Robinson (Tennessee) 20 Stanley Linton (Florida State) Teams 1. Mississippi Rebels 2. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders 3. Alabama Crimson Tide 4. Florida State Seminoles COMING ON THURSDAY . . . SOUTH CENTRAL MIDWEST WEST GREAT LAKES #XC #ncaa #gzatlin #predictions #preview #regionals

Northeast Top 4 teams in regional rankings (USFTCCCA): 1. Syracuse 2. Iona 3. Columbia 4. Army On the surface this region may not appear to have many points at stake, but the 2nd place finisher will more than likely be dishing out a fair share of points thanks to Iona’s and Columbia’s performances at Wisconsin. Syracuse is the clear favorite in this region. They should have no problem finishing in the top two and will more than likely rest a guy or two because they have distanced themselves greatly from this field. Behind them is perennial power Iona and Heps 2nd place team Columbia. After the Wisconsin Invite, most would have scoffed at the idea that Columbia could possibly sneak ahead of Iona, but after Columbia’s bounce back at Heps an upset can’t be ruled out. Iona, which has almost always finished in the top 10 at Wisconsin and NCAAs over the past decade, does not seem to be on the same track after a 17th place finish at Wisco (where Columbia was 33rd). More troubling is the possible lack of depth that we saw from their conference results. They appear to only go five men deep as they swept 1-5 at MAAC's, but their 6th man was a little further back in a conference not known for its depth. The good news for Iona is that they return Gilbert Kirui to the lineup (who has not raced all year) and it looks like Chartt Miller is slowly rounding back into form after struggling at Wisconsin. Columbia will try to counter with a similarly strong top four led by Heps individual champ Ryan Thomas. The Lions put four in the top 10 at Heps and if they can shrink the difference between their 4th and 5th men and hope that one of Iona’s guys has an off day, an upset could be brewing. If this were to happen, Columbia would be giving away A LOT of points from their 33rd place showing at Wisconsin. Mid-Atlantic Top 4 teams in regional rankings (USFTCCCA): 1. Georgetown 2. Princeton 3. Penn 4. Villanova Following Georgetown’s rough run at Pre-Nats, it became clear that there was really no longer a clear favorite in this region, and conceivably there are many different scenarios that could play out where several teams find themselves in one of the first two positions. Georgetown did bounce back with a win at Big Easts and still appears to be in the driver seat for the Mid-Atlantic Region. Led by possible individual champ Jon Green and filled with a slew of talent, the Hoyas have the greatest allowable margin of error which makes them the safest bet to get an auto berth. Before Heps, most would have thought that Penn would be the 2nd place team in this region followed by Princeton in 3rd. However, after Princeton’s dominant run at Van Cortlandt Park, these teams have most certainly flip flopped. With Conor Lundy (3rd at Mid-Atlantic Regionals last year) leading the way, the Tigers have developed depth. Both Garrett O’Toole and Noah Kauppila have transferred success on the track over to the grass. If they can keep their pack compressed and running well then they should finish in the top two, but if the 10k distance proves too much for a team with more miler type runners, then they could lose out on a berth to Nationals. Penn was 24th at Wisconsin so if they do get an auto berth a fair share of teams will happily take some points because of them. With Kevin Monogue and Chris Luciano leading the way, this team has some experienced distance runners who have had success over 10k. However, the Quakers did not run as well as many expected at Heps and will need a bounce back performance to finish in the top two. Both Villanova and last year’s second place team Navy cannot be discounted, but ultimately this may end up being the most difficult region to predict because most of these teams have not yet run up to their preseason expectations. Instead, they have struggled at different times during the season. Great Lakes Top 4 teams in regional rankings (USFTCCCA): 1. Michigan 2. Michigan State 3. Wisconsin 4. Purdue The top of the Great Lakes region will pretty much be a rematch of the Big Ten Meet as it tends to be. If those results hold true and Michigan and Michigan State take the top two spots, then very few points will come out of this region. The results at Big Ten's, however, do suggest that an upset could be in the works. The culprits most likely will be the Wisconsin Badgers. After a 25th place showing at their home invite and confirmation that Morgan McDonald would be redshirting all in the same weekend, many wrote off these Badgers and said they would most likely miss NCAA's for the second time in three years. Although Wisconsin may not have the points to get an at-large bid (depending on the scenario), they cannot be discounted as a possible top two team in this region. At Big Ten's, Wisconsin was led by a 1-2 finish from Oliver Hoare and Joe Hardy which was good enough to lead their team to a third place finish, just six points behind 2nd place Michigan State. Michigan and Michigan State are experienced teams led by seasoned cross country runners such as Ben Flanagan and Clark Ruiz, respectively. Both programs appear to have the depth to run past the Badgers for the auto berth spots, but if Hoare and Hardy run like they did at Big Ten's and one of the other young, talented Badgers step up, then we could see Wisconsin sneak ahead of either Michigan or Michigan State. If that were to happen, the Badgers would give out a lot of points to the teams that beat them at the Nuttycombe Wisconsin Invitational. Southeast Top 4 teams in regional rankings (USFTCCCA): 1. Furman 2. Virginia Tech 3. NC State 4. Virginia The Southeast region over the past few years has always been filled with a number of high quality teams and this year is no different. Furman looks like a solid bet to finish in one of the top two spots and earn and auto berth to Nationals. After them, it's the next three teams that all have a great deal of intrigue. Virginia Tech, which has had a few very good individuals and a great middle distance program on the track, have put together a formula for success in cross country. As a result, they have become one of the biggest surprises in the NCAA this season after their 4th place finish at Pre-Nats. It will be interesting to see how this team handles the move up to the 10k as they still have a number of more miler types on the roster. Both NC State and Virginia could become viable challengers at regionals after they both finished within 30 points of Tech at ACCs. NC State has shown to have a strong and tight pack through five runners this 1-5 this year which gives them more of a margin for error as their depth makes up for off races. With that in mind, they may lack the low-stick necessary to place in the top two. Virginia, on the other hand, was highly ranked to start the year, and ran okay early, but really had a tough day at Wisconsin placing 30th. The Cavaliers bounced back well at ACCs as Brent Demarest and Lachlan Cook finished 2nd and 5th respectively. If Chase Weaverling can join those two up front and give UVA a lethal trio, then that could pack a punch at regionals and allow them to possibly take down their in-state rivals. If the Cavaliers can get solid performances from the rest of their pack and earn an auto berth, then a lot teams that beat them at Wisconsin will happily accept the points coming their way. Although they are not ranked in the top four in the region, both Campbell and Eastern Kentucky cannot be underestimated in this region. Campbell finished 8th at Pre-Nats even though their fifth man finished 251st (and they only ran five guys). They were able to put four guys in the top 40 which helped them to avoid finishing any lower. Led by low-sticks Amon Kemboi and Lawrence Kipkoech, the Camels will most likely put a few guys near the top at regionals and if their fifth man can improve, then they could challenge for a top two finish. Eastern Kentucky had a somewhat disappointing finish at Wisconsin with Erick Rotich leading the way in 23rd and no one else place in the top 80, which led them slipping down the leaderboard. Based on conference results, it looks the Colonels have the potential to compress their 1-5 gap a bit more. If they can accomplish that, then they will definitely have the talent to surprise for an auto berth and give the teams that finished ahead of them at the Wisconsin Invite some Kolas points. #jboyle #ncaa #regionals #XC #analysis #kolas

KEY (Wasn’t Ranked): Was not ranked the week before. (#/#): First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings. A plus (with green) means they have improved in the rankings. A minus (with red) means they have regressed in the rankings. Colors may not show on mobile. The second number indicates where they were ranked the week before. 25. Washington Huskies (Wasn't Ranked) The Huskies held their own this past weekend at PAC 12's by placing 5th overall, only five points behind Oregon. Mahmoud Moussa (Ammar Moussa's little brother) was the team's surprise low-stick for the day with his 5th place finish while Andrew Gardner was close behind in 11th. After those two, we saw a considerable gap with Colby Gilbert and freshman Talon Hull placing 27th and 29th while their 5th scorer (Andy Snyder) was back in 47th. This team has enough talent to be a top program in the nation, but they can't be effective if they have these gaps in their top five. Still, they ran well and nearly scared Oregon in the team standings. Because of that, they'll earn a spot in our Top 25. 24. Iona Gaels (-1 / 23) It was a perfect score for the Gaels at the MAAC Championships. No one is really surprised that they put up 15 points, but seeing low-stick Gilbert Kirui back in the lineup is a huge development for a team that struggled at Wisconsin. 23. Wisconsin Badgers (Wasn't Ranked) One of the biggest surprises this past weekend was seeing the Badgers rebound from the Wisconsin Invite to place 3rd at BIG 10's. Not only was their team performance surprising, but seeing Oliver Hoare and Joe Hardy taking the top two spots was certainly not expected. Relative to teams like Michigan State and Illinois, their final three scorers weren't all that bad (they finished 20th, 32nd, and 33rd). Much like Michigan State, I'd like see that gap narrow, but when you consider where the Badgers were two weeks ago compared to now, they are certainly moving in the right direction. 22. Utah State Aggies (-3 / 19) The Aggies struggled against a deep field of top-tier talent at the Mountain West Championships. Despite finishing 4th behind three very solid programs, their team score was slightly concerning (93 points). In fact, New Mexico almost pulled off the upset with a team score of 97 points. As expected, Dillon Maggard was exceptional with a 3rd place while sophomore James Withers held his own for a respectable finish of 16th. However, the rest of Utah State's top seven finished 23rd, 24th, 27th, 28th, and 31st. Those aren't necessarily bad finishes, but pack running like that isn't going to have an impact on a smaller field of just 65 individuals. Sure, their performance may not have been ideal, but if there was a time to have an "off day", conference championships was probably the best time to have it. 21. Boise State Broncos (0 / 21) The Broncos finished 3rd at the Mountain West Championships behind Colorado State and Air Force. Miler Haller had a great day with a 6th place finish while their middle three scorers finished 11th, 13th, and 14th. Unfortunately, the man that was typically their reliable ace (Yusuke Uchikoshi) was their 5th scorer for the day in 20th. Had he performed like he was expected to, then not only does Boise State beat Air Force, but they come awfully close to a solid Colorado State team. Yet, until I actually begin to see any progress from Uchikoshi, this team will be held outside of the Top 20. 20. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3 / 17) It's tough to say that Oklahoma State had a bad race. In the big picture, they actually did quite well at BIG 12's with a team score of 44 points. Unfortunately for them, Iowa State and Texas were just the better teams when you compare the 3rd, 4th and 5th scorers. Hassan Abdi did what was expected of him (he won) while Luiz Martinez had a breakout performance to finish 2nd overall. However, Sylvester Barus needs to be better. The Cowboy Jamboree champion should be placing in the top 10, not 17th. It's easy for me to sit behind a computer and criticize a team that has done so well for so long. They may not have won the conference title, but their loss did allow many of us to realize just how good they've been over the past decade. 19. Texas Longhorns (+1 / 20) You really have to feel for Texas. After years of rebuilding, the Longhorns finally have a program capable of pulling off upsets and fighting for championships. They were one point off from grabbing the BIG 12 title, but they can at least say that they contributed to breaking up Oklahoma State's title streak. Sam Worley looks like a true ace after his 3rd place finish while Connor O'Neill and Alex Rogers look like excellent support pieces. Others like John Rice and Charles Mills continued to show that they were consistent and reliable scorers that are only improving as the season goes on. Overall, Texas has a ton of depth and that will likely benefit them as they transition to the 10k distance. 18. Air Force Falcons (0 / 18) The Air Force men had a strong showing at the Mountain West Championships this past weekend with their runner-up finish to Colorado State. The team score may show the Falcons 28 points behind the Rams, but don't mistake that difference as a poor performance. The Falcons placed three in the top 10 while their bottom two scorers both finished in the top 20. With victories over Utah State and Boise State, Air Force is now in a great position to qualify for the Big Dance. They can thank the consistency of Johnston, Davey, and Bilvado for helping them get to this point. 17. Mississippi Rebels (-2 / 15) The team scores at SEC's certainly wasn't what I expected. I felt confident that Arkansas would do well, but I at least thought that the Rebels could pull within 20 points of them. Unfortunately for Ole Miss, that was not the case. Instead, Arkansas tallied a score of 41 points to take the title while Alabama barely edged the Rebels for 2nd, 81 to 82. It was a surprising upset for Mississippi who had done so well all season. Tobin held his own by placing 8th while the middle three scorers finished 14th, 15th, and 18th overall. Unfortunately, that 5th scorer proved to be their main weakness as he fell to 27th. When you look at overall season performances, I'm not ready to say that Alabama is the better team. Still, it does make you wonder how Ole Miss will handle another matchup against them at the South Regional Championships. 16. Iowa State Cyclones (+6 / 22) After a surprisingly poor performance at Wisconsin, the Cyclones entered BIG 12's with a chip on their shoulders. In what was arguably the most exciting meet of the weekend, Iowa State emerged victorious, narrowly defeating Texas by one point and Oklahoma State by three points. Andrew Jordan and Thomas Pollard did what was expected of them by placing 4th and 5th overall, but an incredible race by Dan Curts (who was 6th) is most likely the reason why Iowa State walked away with the win. Of course, others would argue that freshman Milo Greder placing 14th was real the difference maker. Initially, Coach Smith had planned to redshirt his star freshman, but his decision not to earned his program the BIG 12 title. 15. Michigan State Spartans (+1 / 16) The Michigan State men put up a good fight at BIG 10's. Ruiz and Beadlescomb were huge in this meet as they placed 3rd and 5th overall. Unfortunately, the gap between them and their final three scorers (who placed 19th, 24th, and 31st) was far too great to overcome and it was the main reason why they fell to Michigan. 14. Oregon Ducks (-6 / 8) 13. UCLA Bruins (+1 / 14) Stanford and Colorado may have gained all of the attention at this meet, but one of the more surprising results was seeing UCLA get the best of Oregon by six points at the PAC 12 Championships. As usual, Brandt gave the Bruins another great finish by placing 6th overall, but the rest of their squad was relatively spread out with finishes of 14th, 23rd, 26th, and 35th. When we look at the Ducks, we saw a huge performance by freshman Cooper Teare (who placed 8th overall), but the rest of the squad relied on pack running to get the job done by placing 22nd, 24th, 25th, and 31st. It looks like the 2nd scorer is where things really made a difference in the team scoring. It just goes to show how much Matthew Maton means to this squad. 12. Michigan Wolverines (+1 / 13) There were multiple teams that could've threatened for the BIG 10 title, but Michigan's low-sticks proved to be the deciding factor. The Wolverines put three in the top 15 while their final few scorers kept the team point total in control by placing 18th and 22nd. In fact, Big Blue even had some backup at the 6th and 7th spot with runners placing 23rd and 25th. Overall, nice pack running by the bottom half of Michigan's lineup kept them competitive. 11. Virginia Tech Hokies (0 / 11) The Hokies had a decent race at ACC's by finishing 2nd overall, but their team score of 73 points doesn't seem to match the performances they've had this season. Expect this squad to rebound with a stronger result at the Southeast Regional Championships in two weeks. 10. Southern Utah Thunderbirds (0 / 10) The Thunderbirds could only do so much as Northern Arizona used elite front-running to get the win at BIG Sky's. However, I will say that the team score was closer than I expected. 9. Arkansas Razorbacks (+3 / 12) After a horrendous performance at Pre-Nats, the Razorbacks bounced back with a comfortable team win at SEC's over Alabama and Ole Miss by over 40 points. George and Bruce looked like the low-sticks I thought they would be while Andrew Ronoh's addition to the lineup helped the Razorbacks pull away from the field. There are still a few things this team needs to fix, but this past weekend was a great way to regain momentum. 8. Colorado State Rams (+1 / 9) In one of the more underrated meets of the weekend, Colorado State scored an outstanding 31 points at the Mountain West Championships thanks to a 1-2 finish by Mock and Rockhold. The Rams put four in the top 10 while their final scorer placed 15th. CSU just trounced a deep Mountain West field like it was nothing. Look out for this team as we enter the later portion of the postseason. 7. Furman Paladins (-1 / 6) As expected, the Paladins dominated the Southern Conference Championships with a perfect score and a 23:57 average. They actually took eight of the top nine spots. Unfortunately, Colorado's strong performance without Dressel has led me to believe that the Buffs have the edge right now which is why I'm pushing Furman back to 7th. 6. Colorado Buffaloes (+1 / 7) Colorado put up a tough fight against Stanford, but fell to 2nd by only six points. Joe Klecker had a great day by earning runner-up honors while Ryan Forsyth and Eduardo Herrera both finished in the top 10. Adam Peterman and Zach Perrin rounded out the top five by placing 12th and 16th. Overall, this was a solid performance, but if John Dressel was in this lineup, do the Buffs emerge victorious once again? It wasn't unusual for Wetmore to leave Dressel out of the lineup at Pre-Nats, but in a big postseason meet like PAC 12's, his absence does raise a few concerns. 5. Syracuse Orangemen (0 / 5) After their performance at Wisconsin, questions began to arise about how reliable Syracuse's 5th scorer was going to be this season. Yet, at ACC's, that skepticism was quickly put to rest. The Orangemen placed five in the top 10 and actually outscored the rest of the ACC field 27 to 28. It's just another lesson that we should never doubt Syracuse. 4. Portland Pilots (0 / 4) As I mentioned in my analysis of BYU, I'm not looking too heavily into the West Coast Conference Championships. Portland coach Rob Conner said at the Wisconsin Invite that they weren't going to run a full squad and that the Pilots would be focusing on regionals. Sure enough, that seems to be the case. 3. Stanford Cardinal (0 / 3) After six straight years of Colorado being PAC 12 champions, Stanford emerged victorious after placing three in the top five with Grant Fisher leading the way. Still, there are a lot of cautionary signs that are beginning to develop with this team. Their final two scorers were 15th and 18th in the team scoring, Thomas Ratcliffe has yet to make his season debut, and veterans like Wharton and Keelan haven't been the reliable scorers that I thought they could be. Yet, even with all of these potential issues (emphasis on potential), Stanford still made a statement by defeating Colorado. They've got the depth and talent to be a podium team once again. 2. BYU Cougars (0 / 2) The biggest storyline of the weekend was BYU throwing down a perfect score at the West Coast Conference Championships to defeat Portland. Putting five men ahead of Portland's top guy is incredibly impressive, but Portland made it clear before the meet that they really weren't putting an emphasis on this meet. In fact, in an interview with Flotrack, Portland coach Rob Conner even predicted that BYU "could score 15 points". Whatever your thoughts were on this meet, I think it's still pretty clear that BYU is legit. The race between them and NAU will be a lot closer than I originally thought... 1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (0 / 1) No surprise here as the Lumberjack men defended their BIG Sky title placing 1-2-3-8-10 and defeating a talented Southern Utah squad by 12 points. ADDED #25 Washington Huskies #24 Wisconsin Badgers KICKED OFF Eastern Kentucky Colonels (Formerly #25) Minnesota Golden Gophers (Formerly #24) JUST MISS (in no order) Eastern Kentucky Colonels Campbell Camels Illinois Fighting Illini' Alabama Crimson Tide Washington State Cougars Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Minnesota Golden Gophers NC State Wolfpack San Francisco Dons WHO TO WATCH (in no order) Princeton Tigers Georgetown Hoyas Liberty Flames New Mexico Lobos Georgia Tech Purdue Boilermakers Indiana Hoosiers Penn State Nittany Lions Eastern Michigan Eagles SURPRISE OF THE WEEK Iowa State Cyclones: For 10 straight years, Oklahoma State dominated the BIG 12. History was against Iowa State, but they finally upended their powerhouse rivals and took home the crown. This team has all of the necessary talent to do some damage at NCAA's, they'll just all have to run well on the same day. TEAM OF THE WEEK BYU Cougars: No matter what your thoughts were on the West Coast Conference Championships, the fact of the matter is that BYU put five guys ahead of Portland's #1. That in itself is incredibly impressive and not something that many people outside of Provo probably expected. NOTES - Let's give some love to Princeton. Columbia put four men in the top 10, but the Tigers responded by placing all five of their scorers in the top 10. When you run like that, you aren't going to lose. - Alabama is such a difficult team to figure out. When was the last time we've seen a top three like theirs mixed with a bottom two that are so noticeably far away in the results? In a way, the Crimson Tide have essentially put their team score entirely on just two men. Some days it works (SEC's), other days it doesn't (Notre Dame). The real test will be seeing how this team is able to transition to the 10k distance. - What happened Minnesota? They were 12th at Wisconsin, but fell to 6th at BIG 10's. I mentioned that the Gophers have had a history of inconsistency, and the BIG 10 results this past weekend only solidify that argument. #rankings #XC #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis #Top25