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Predictions & Previews: Regionals (Pt. 2)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Nov 9, 2017
- 6 min read
NOTE: These predictions are the same as our KOLAS projections. If these predictions were to be 100% true, they would follow the logic of our KOLAS projections.
Midwest
Analysis
The Midwest is always an underrated region in regards to talent, but it's relatively easy to figure out that Hassan Abdi is the favorite to win it all this year. The Oklahoma State senior enters regionals undefeated and is easily the most successful runner in this field at the 10k distance. After Abdi, I like to think that Thomas Pollard's experience and history of success in the postseason gives him an edge at this meet. With a proven ability to run the 10k, these two individuals should be the names to watch. However, we also need to keep an eye on Luis Martinez who almost pulled off the upset win at BIG 12's. Youngsters like Andrew Jordan and Jonathan Davis are two incredible talents that have been on fire this season, but they don't have quite the same experience that some of these other guys do. Will they be able to handle the expectations of being a low-stick in the 10k?
The headline for the team race is an exciting one as Oklahoma State will look to avenge their three point loss to Iowa State at the BIG 12 Championships. Both of these teams have a strong and reliable top two, but their final scorers haven't always been the most consistent this season. Still, Iowa State looks like they have the advantage as we evaluate the rest of their top five. Dan Curts and Stanley Langat had great finishes at BIG 12's by placing 6th and 11th overall, but you have to wonder if a miler like Curts and a JUCO transfer like Langat will be able to make a smooth transition to the 10k. Oklahoma State has plenty of talent on their side as well, but with Ryan Smeeton being just a freshman and Sylvestar Barus yet to match his performance from the Cowboy Jamboree, it seems as though Oklahoma State doesn't have the firepower to beat out ISU.
Illinois is also a team that could scare for a top two spot, but their final two scorers will need to stick with the top group and their gaps will need be tightened. On paper, they can compete with Iowa State and Oklahoma State, but all five of their scorers will need to run their best on the same day (something we haven't quite seen from them this season). Minnesota is another program that should in the qualifying picture given their history of success at Regionals, but they are also very inconsistent squad which is evident by comparing their performance at Wisconsin to their performance at BIG 10's.
Individuals
1. Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State)
2. Thomas Pollard (Iowa State)
3. Luis Martinez (Oklahoma State)
4. Andrew Jordan (Iowa State)
5. Jonathan Davis (Illinois)
6. Obsa Ali (Minnesota)
7. Jesse Reiser (Illinois)
8. Ben Preisner (Tulsa)
9. Stanley Langat (Iowa State)
10. Dan Curts (Iowa State)
11. Sylvester Barus (Oklahoma State)
12. Wyatt McGuire (Nebraska)
13. Noah Gade (Oklahoma State)
14. Christopher Orlow (Eastern Illinois)
15. Jake Hoffert (Bradley)
Teams
1. Iowa State Cyclones
2. Oklahoma State Cowboys
3. Illinois Fighting Illini'
4. Minnesota Golden Gophers
5. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes
Great Lakes
Analysis
The Great Lakes region has always been one of the more entertaining regions in the NCAA as national contenders like Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Indiana constantly clash and fight for the last few qualifying spots to Nationals. In 2017, the individual battle will not be an easy one to decide even with Morgan McDonald no longer in the picture. Just like the BIG 10 Championships, the champion will most likely come down to Clark Ruiz, Ben Flanagan, and Oliver Hoare. One of the biggest surprises from two weeks ago was seeing Wisconsin's Oliver Hoare and Joe Hardy upset the BIG 10 field and finish 1-2 against a slew of experienced veterans. Meanwhile, Ben Flanagan and Clark Ruiz should theoretically thrive at the Great Lakes regional meet as the racing distance transitions to a 10k. Ruiz has had great success in the 10k before, so this could his year to take advantage of his new-found fitness. Others like Jaret Carpenter, Ben Veatch, and Morgan Beadlescomb have been nice surprises this season, but I'm still waiting for Euan Makepeace to replicate his performance at the Commodore Classic (where he upset Jacob Choge) and for Evan Stifel to regain this 2016 fitness.
I see the team race coming down to Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. In this field, the Wolverines have the best and most experienced top three, the Spartans have the most complete overall squad (in relation to their top runners), and the Badgers have the best 1-2 punch (as well as the fear of potentially missing out on Nationals to keep them motivated). Wisconsin is still a bit younger with Olin Hacker and Morgan McDonald not in the lineup, so I'm not sure how well they will handle such a big stage where so much is being asked of them. As for Michigan and Michigan State, the race will come down to who has the better 4th and 5th scorers. At BIG 10's, that team was Michigan. Can MSU use the extra 2k of racing distance to cover their gaps between Michigan?
Individuals
1. Clark Ruiz (Michigan State)
2. Oliver Hoare (Wisconsin)
3. Ben Flanagan (Michigan)
4. Joe Hardy (Wisconsin)
5. Jaret Carpenter (Purdue)
6. Ben Veatch (Indiana)
7. Aaron Baumgarten (Michigan)
8. Morgan Beadlescomb (Michigan State)
9. Euan Makepeace (Butler)
10. Connor Mora (Michigan)
11. Curt Eckstein (Purdue)
12. Bryce Stroede (Oakland)
13. Hyluner Andresson (Eastern Michigan)
14. Ryan Robinson (Michigan State)
15. Kyle Mau (Indiana)
16. Ben Eidenschink (Wisconsin)
17. Billy Bund (Michigan)
18. Jesse Hersha (Michigan State)
19. Evan Stifel (Ohio State) 20. Barry Keane (Butler)
Teams
1. Michigan Wolverines
2. Michigan State Spartans
3. Wisconsin Badgers
4. Purdue Boilermakers
5. Eastern Michigan Eagles
6. Indiana Hoosiers
7. Butler Bulldogs
South Central
Analysis
The individual race in the South Central region is a difficult one to predict. With Arkansas and Texas looking like locks to place in the top two, we may see them put together a more conservative effort in preparation for NCAA's. If Arkansas and Texas were to give less than 100% effort, then it is very possible that Tulane's Emmanuel Rotich could find an opening to take the win, a scenario that actually took place last year. Of course, other top-tier individuals like Alex George, Jack Bruce, and Brian Barraza have shown glimpses of brilliance this season. If the race is honest, then those three names could also be contenders for the title.
As we shift our conversation to the team race, it seems rather obvious that Arkansas and Texas will be the top two teams in this field. No other team in this field has the firepower or the depth that these two powerhouse programs have.
Individuals
1. Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane)
2. Alex George (Arkansas)
3. Jack Bruce (Arkansas)
4. Brian Barraza (Houston)
5. Andrew Ronoh (Arkansas)
6. Alex Riba (Texas A&M)
7. Stanley Limoh (UT-Lafayette)
8. Cameron Griffith (Arkansas) 9. Sam Worley (Texas) 10. Alex Rogers (Texas)
11. Justin Domangue (UT-Arlington) 12. Christian Farris (Texas A&M) 13. John Rice (Texas) 14. Austen Dalquist (Arkansas) 15. Connor O'Neill (Texas)
Teams
1. Arkansas Razorbacks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Texas A&M Aggies
Mountain
Analysis
The final race we have left to address is the Mountain region. It is so difficult to figure out how this race will play out for a variety of reasons. Some teams may not run certain individuals (see BYU rumors here) while other squads may not race at 100% effort if they believe that they will get into NCAA's regardless of where they finish (within reason). At the same time, we are also left with a massive group of elite long-distance runners that we must sort through. With so much firepower in one regional race, we could potentially see some of these superstars thrive or crumble under the pressure. NAU's top three will most likely be fighting with the BYU duo of Linkletter and Young as each group looks to secure their team's berth to NCAA's early on in the race. Others Jerrell Mock, Dillon Maggard, Joe Klecker, and Andrew Johnston are low-sticks that will also have the pressure of keeping their teams in qualifying contention.
As we evaluate the team race, BYU and NAU seem like the obvious candidates to take the top two spots. Of course, if BYU is actually resting three of their top seven like some rumors suggest, then we could see other teams like Colorado, Colorado State, or Southern Utah potentially scare the Cougars for the 2nd automatic berth. Then again, BYU is arguably the deepest team in the nation. There is still a very good chance that they snag a top two spot even without Clinger, Harper, and Carney.
Most of the top teams in the Mountain region seem relatively safe in their quest to make it to NCAA's. In fact, The Stride Report's Kolas projections have five of the first six "at-large" selections going to teams in the Mountain region. Out of the potential qualifiers in this region, the New Mexico Lobos are the only team that should really be concerned. Unless they finish ahead of at least one of seven teams listed below, it doesn't look like they'll qualify for the Big Dance. Their only hope is to get pushed into NCAA's by defeating a team with more Kolas points.
Individuals
1. Rory Linkletter (BYU)
2. Clayton Young (BYU)
3. Matthew Baxter (NAU)
4. Tyler Day (NAU)
5. Andy Trouard (NAU)
6. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State)
7. Dillon Maggard (Utah State)
8. Joe Klecker (Colorado)
9. Andrew Johnston (Air Force)
10. Geordie Beamish (NAU)
11. Mike Tate (Southern Utah)
12. Connor McMillan (BYU)
13. Casey Clinger (BYU) (?)
14. Luis Grijalva (NAU)
15. Daniel Carney (BYU) (?)
16. Ryan Forsyth (Colorado)
17. Alex Palm (New Mexico)
18. Cole Rockhold (Colorado State)
19. Kasey Knevelbaard (Southern Utah)
20. Jacob Bilvado (Air Force)
Teams
1. NAU Lumberjacks
2. BYU Cougars
3. Colorado Buffaloes
4. Colorado State Rams
5. Southern Utah Thunderbirds
6. Air Force Falcons
7. Utah State Aggies
8. New Mexico Lobos
