TSR's 2024 "Way Too Early" NAIA XC Preview (Men's Teams)

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What? You thought we forgot about NAIA?

Nope! We most certainly did not.

Our NAIA team is hard at work crafting their preseason summer rankings just like the rest of our writing crew. Of course, this is still a fairly new and young area of coverage for us, so those rankings will look a bit different compared to our D1, D2 and D3 team lists.

But before we unveil those rankings, I thought it would be a good idea to have a broader discussion on the NAIA scene. And while I am still relatively new to this area of coverage, I made sure to also consult with one of our NAIA writers beforehand.

Let's begin, shall we?

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NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists as new information is constantly flowing in. Any eligibility mentioned below is based off of TFRRS and any inside information that we have been able to collect. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.

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It would be odd to begin our analysis with any team other than the defending national champions, Milligan. The Buffalo men secured the NAIA team title last fall by scoring 93 points at the national meet, inching just five points ahead of St. Mary (KS).

But...who from that team actually returns?

Well, unfortunately for the Tennessee-based distance program, they are expected to lose plenty of firepower going into this fall. That's because both Aaron Jones and Will Stockley, two top-10 finisher at last year's national meet, are no longer with the team.

And to put it simply, those are brutal departures.

Those two men, along with returning low-stick ace Bryn Woodall, gave the Milligan men a three-headed scoring monster throughout the entirety of last fall that other NAIA programs weren't quite able to match. And now, with two-thirds of their identity essentially gone, the rest of the Buffaloes lineup will need to rally and collectively make up those lost points by cutting down on the gaps in front of them.

Video via X.com // @NAIA

Thankfully, Bryson Lewis is a high-upside returning All-American while Zimri Kuhn wasn't far off from an All-American honor, either. I am also of the opinion that Alex Brittain can be better on the grass this fall. Not only that, but both Winston Telford (via Eastern Oregon) and Blake Hipkiss (via Marian) are two incoming transfers who cracked the top-90 at the national meet last year!

In other words, the floor of this team should still be fairly high going into this fall.

Is that group going to be enough to defend the national title? Truthfully, I would be very surprised if it was. Of course, I have also learned to never doubt the often-incredible development that we have seen from the Milligan men training under Coach Chris Layne.

We then come to St. Mary's, the Kansas-based squad that has a lot to like about them going into this upcoming fall season...if you can look past the loss of their top scorer.

Last year's NAIA individual bronze medalist at the national meet, Emad Bashir-Mohammed, was outstanding throughout last fall. Not only did he find major success in the postseason, but he was also the 8th place finisher at the Cowboy Jamboree. Unfortunately, he is not returning.

It also doesn't help that the Spires lose backend All-American scorer, Brig Merritt. His departure, paired with the expired eligibility of Bashir-Mohammed, leaves the St. Mary men with a lineup that is likely more volatile than they were last year (in theory).

The catch, however, is that the trio of Dominick Beine, Ryan Heline and Chris Metz were all top-30 All-Americans last year and they all return. At the very least, they give their team the requisite firepower to contend for the national title, especially if they each make marginal improvements.

But at the end of the day, this team will only go as far as the backend of their lineup allows them to go. Snagging a JUCO cross country All-American in Aleksandr Krikov should certainly help with that and Liam Neidig is a middle distance talent who has boasted solid value on the grass in prior seasons.

We also can't forget about the return of guys like Tommy Baker, Austin O'Dwyer and Dawson Adams who could be enough to help this team go after gold. There were a few occasions last fall where those latter three men had some sneaky-good results and O'Dwyer was ill for the latter-half of the season. His return will definitely boost this team.

However, for as good as both Milligan and St. Mary were (and will be), the team that is easily the most fascinating to dissect is, of course, the Cumberlands (KY) men.

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Now, on paper, you would think that the Patriots return everyone from last year's national meet lineup...but that's not actually the case.

While they do return star low-stick Serhii Shevchenko, their 16th place All-American Cornelius Kipkogei is seemingly now at Oral Roberts University. And their 27th place All-American, Luca Santorum? Well, he is also gone, recently making a transfer move to Texas A&M. Oh, and Collins Kipkosqei Rop? Their 36th place All-American? We don't officially know what his status is, but we do know that he wasn't on Cumberlands' track and field roster this past spring. It should also be noted that Gustav Bendsen transferred to Louisville.

If Kipkosqei Rop is actually gone, then that leaves Shevchenko with just one other returning All-American cross country teammate in Luca Madeo.

Of course, it's not like Cumberlands is going to be completely void of new high-octane scorers on the grass this fall. They did, after all, add Youssef Asslouj to their team earlier this year. And despite being a freshman, Asslouj was one of the single-most valuable distance runners in the entire country. It would frankly be a surprise if he was not a top-10 finisher at the NAIA XC Championships in November.

The other key name to consider is Dennis Kipkurui, the long distance specialist who has run as fast as 13:25 (5k) and 28:11 (10k) overseas, per World Athletics. The 19-year old distance star competed for Cumberlands this past year on the track. And while tactical racing didn't seem to be his forte, the cross country course should theoretically allow him to better display the full extent of his raw fitness.

The only caveat, however, is that we're not entirely sure if Kipkurui is returning. For now, we are going to act under the assumption that he is. But if he's not, then that's going to make Cumberlands' pursuit for a national title a touch trickier.

And yet, regardless of whether or not we see Kipkirui this fall, it's probably safe to assume that Coach Bradley Sowder will continue to find international distance stars for later this year. In fact, we don't need to assume anything -- we already know that he has three new names from overseas.

Those new additions are Shashi Singh (via India), Ali Benzem (via Morocco) and Cuauhtemoc Fitiao (via Salt Lake CC and Cyprus). Admittedly, those first two names are more middle distance-centric runners. Even so, all three of those runners are talented enough to have a legitimate impact for the Patriots this fall, especially Singh who has run 3:41 for 1500 meters.

The only question is...how much impact?

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As we continue to go down the list of top teams from last year, I want to offer more high-level analysis so that we can touch on more programs.

Last year's final podium team, The Master's, are set to return Jack Anderson, last year's 8th place finisher from the national meet. Connor Ybarra is also way better than his national meet effort showed while both Hunter Romine and Jacob Fredricks showed enough flashes of promise over the last year to suggest that they can potentially be backend All-Americans later this fall.

Sure, those are solid names that the team can lean on. However, the departures of two low-stick talents in Daniel Rush and Brint Laubach is far from ideal. Not only that, but Coach Zach Schroeder has also stepped away from the team, leaving the Mustangs in a very delicate spot of their roster lifecycle as they try to reestablish and revamp their team identity.

I'll be fascinated to see how Indiana Wesleyan recovers. They're set to lose a mass number of veterans from a 5th place national meet team that was fairly balanced. TFRRS suggests that four of their top-five runners from last year are out of cross country eligibility, including their entire top-three.

Oh, and by the way, they have a brand new coach in Brody Beiler following the retirement of Coach John Foss, a guy who was with the Wildcats for over 35 years.

Even so, I do really like the potential that both Eli Fullerton and Braden Vernot have. The former had a great year on the track and the latter is much better than what his national meet effort would suggest (just look at his regular season results).

Those two men are both All-American-caliber athletes and we can't forget that Braden Sweet still has eligibility. He was easily IWU's top scorer throughout last fall until he stopped racing in early October. If he's back at 100% and near the same form as last year, then the Wildcats could remain as a nationally competitive group via a very top-heavy lineup.

I can't help but really like the College of Idaho men this year. They return a heavy portion of their top-10 national meet lineup from last fall and TFRRS suggests that all of those returners are going to be seniors.

By retaining their two low-sticks in Daniel Butler and Hayden Bostrom, as well as a stable backend keeping this lineup together, I feel like the Yotes have a fairly high floor going into this fall. Yes, it is fair to point out that they have some noticeable gaps within that lineup which can often create some vulnerability at larger meets. But for whatever reason, I'm just not worried about that.

And yet, for as much as I like the COI men this year, I have to admit that I like Eastern Oregon even more. On paper, this group was set to return their entire top-six from last year's national meet! That group placed 7th overall and their entire top-six finished inside the top-100.

However, as we mentioned earlier, Winston Telford has transferred to Milligan. That departure leaves the Mountaineers without a valuable scorer who got even better on the track. Thankfully for EOU, they still have five top-100 national meet returners as well as a true low-stick in Justin Ash.

Moving forward, if this team wants to be on the podium, then they'll need to find more firepower to pair with Ash. But if that does happen, then this is going to be a very tricky squad to take down.

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I think the Dordt men will be better this season, I just don't know how much better. Sure, losing Peter Shippy hurts, but they return most of their core from last fall. And given how young this team was beyond their top-two or three, I can't help but think that the general racing maturation of guys like Isaac Davelaar, Luke Swanson and Craig Becker will lead to measurably better results.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is also why I think Taylor could have a huge year.

The Trojans were a top-10 team at last year's national meet despite TFRRS suggesting that they had five underclassmen! One of those five men was a freshman low-stick in Nathan Burns. Everyone else on that team finished in the top-140 of the national meet results and of those seven runners, only one of them is out of eligibility.

The Taylor men have A TON of upside. They could be a massive problem if these young guys continue to catch fire and become increasingly more comfortable with NAIA competition.

Now, admittedly, the national meet felt like a slight outlier result compared to their other major race from last fall, the Louisville XC Classic. That isn't to say that the Taylor men had a fluke race, but they almost certainly outperformed expectations after losing to a large handful of NAIA programs in Louisville earlier that fall. That said, the Trojans did make noticeable improvements after that race and they were accurately rewarded for that progression in the coaches poll going into the national meet.

This fall, the Trojans will be aiming to validate their national meet performance and show that it was an accurate representation of just how good they truly are. And regardless of that, I don't see how this team doesn't improve (overall) in 2024.

Let's wrap up this article with a few rapid-fire takes...

• Everything that I said about Eastern Oregon and College of Idaho largely applies to Montreat, last year's 10th place national meet team. Losing Dylan Branch is obviously not a good thing, but bringing back low-stick Ethan Stamey and a slew of men who are going to be seniors should make the Cavaliers a fairly safe team when making pre-race predictions. We should also note that former Tabor coach Rylan Hincher is now taking over the lead coaching duties at Montreat. With him comes a handful of his former athletes, including 5k All-American standout, Ryan Stade. He will be much better on the grass this fall compared to last year.

• The Oklahoma City men are seemingly returning everyone from last year's 11th place national meet effort. That was a young team that held their own, but they lacked firepower and their usual top scorer, Ayenew Devany, didn't have a great national meet showing. Of course, the addition of Evert Silva changes the structure of this lineup in a fairly dramatic way.

• Schools like Shawnee State, Goshen and Aquinas were fantastic at the Louisville XC Classic last fall and they were probably stronger than how they fared at the NAIA XC Championships. The only issue, however, is that (according to TFRRS) Shawnee State loses a star low-stick while Goshen loses a lot of valuable depth. And Aquinas? Well, frankly, they should still be really good in 2024. They just had a flat-out bad day at the 2023 national meet.