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TSR's 2024 Preseason D3 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): #9 Washington U. Bears
- Gavin Struve
- Sep 5, 2024
- 7 min read
DISCLAIMER: One of TSR's writers, Conor Daly, contributed to the crafting of these rankings and currently competes for Washington U. While he did not write this article, he did have a voice as to where the Bears (and other teams) were listed in these rankings.
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
This is the same spot that the Washington U. women occupied entering last fall. It's also coincidentally where their men's team enters the 2024 season in our top-10 rankings.
The Bears' women's contingent did not ultimately finish in the top-10 at last year's cross country national meet, but as this ranking suggests, we think it's more likely than not that they return to that level this fall. After all, this program was a podium fixture throughout the back half of the 2010s.
Washington U. returns four scorers from the national meet (all but their low-stick star) and boasts a core of freshmen and returnees who should be able to capably fill in the rest of the lineup.
With that level of returning experience, this team has a relatively high floor and we expect Coach Jeff Stiles' 2024 group to finish within a few spots of this preseason ranking.
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The Washington U. women made it clear early on last fall that they would not be entering the postseason unprepared. The Bears opened at the Gil Dodds Invitational, which amounted to a three-way battle between them, U. of Chicago and Hope.
A clear hierarchy developed as U. of Chicago had the first five women to cross the line. Julia Patterson, Alexandra Blake and Katie Rector gave the Bears a respectable up-front scoring presence by filling in the back-half of the top-10. Two teammates joined them among the top-20 individuals of the 20-team field, but it largely didn't matter where they placed after the Maroons' top-five sweep.
Washington U. finished a distant runner-up behind U. of Chicago but comfortably ahead of 3rd place Hope. That wasn't a bad season-opening result, but it was further proof of the changing of the guard in the University Athletic Association (UAA).
The Bears stayed in-state for their next test, competing in the Gans Creek Invitational "Open" race against a host of solid Division Two programs. There, the complexion of their scoring structure shifted. Rector finished as the overall runner-up, while Blake placed 6th and Julia Patterson was 9th.
Avery McCammon placing 15th and Abigail Patterson placing 17th to round out the lineup was enough for the Bears to win the race convincingly. If any of those scorers had faltered, it was reassuring to know that the Bears could have fielded another scoring lineup of five more women within the top-26.
While they faced solid opposition in September, Washington U.'s first real test last fall came at the Augustana Interregional Invitational in mid-October. That setting pitted them against conference foe U. of Chicago again as well as a handful of other nationally competitive groups.
In their biggest regular season meet, Blake re-emerged as the Bears' leading woman and provided a low-stick effort by sneaking into the top-10. While it was unfortunate that a gap formed between her and the rest of the team's lineup, the rest of the scorers put on a display of commendable depth.
Rookie Vivienne Larson emerged to fill the second scoring role in 25th place, and Jillian Heth, Abigail Patterson and Helena Teixeira-Dasilva joined her in the top-35 to round out the top-five quickly.
Washington U. ultimately placed a distant 3rd behind the Maroons and Wartburg but topped respectable squads like Colorado College, Calvin, UW-Eau Claire and UC Santa Cruz. Four other Bears sat in the top-50 outside of the scoring positions, which was impressive, but this team needed to convert some of that depth into more potent scoring in the top half of their lineup.
They didn't quite do that once the postseason began at the UAA XC Championships, again finishing behind U. of Chicago as well as conference champion NYU. The scoring structure largely looked the same, as Blake played a low-stick role in 7th place, Julia Patterson was relatively close behind in 12th and Larson, Rector and Heth went 16-17-19.
After finishing 4th at the Midwest Regional XC Championships, it was clear that this team had a ceiling without a complementary low-stick counterpart to Blake.
Washington U. ran differently at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, but not entirely for the better.
Blake was the Bears' lone All-American, placing 28th, but Julia Patterson offered a solid second-scorer effort by finishing 61st. Larson had a really strong end to her freshman season as the third scorer in 79th place.
Together, Julia Patterson and Vivienne Larson arguably provided better supplementary scoring in the middle-lineup positions than we'd seen from this team all fall. And they did so on the season's biggest stage.
However, with considerable distance between the top three and Rector (158th) and Heth (169th) in the final scoring spots, the Bears didn't have enough to stay in the top-10. As was the case all season, the Bears had help on the way close behind with two others in the top-185, but they surely would've preferred to convert that into more potent backend scoring.
When all was said and done, Washington U. finished 13th at the 2023 cross country national meet. Truthfully, that was probably one of their better results of the fall, but there was hope entering the postseason that they could still salvage a top-10 season-ending effort for the umpteenth year in a row.
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We went long on that last section because it paints the picture of Washington U.'s recurring struggles to pack enough punch throughout the entirety of their lineup last year. With a considerable amount of continuity, there's still no guarantee that the Bears will improve upon that trend in 2024. That being said, there's ample reason to think they could.
We'll circle back on their two departures, but let's move right to our discussion of Washington U.'s x-factor for this fall: Katie Rector. She was better than what she showed at last year's cross country national meet for much of the regular season and she should improve after running 17:19 over 5000 meters this past spring.
However, the result that most starkly lays out the scoring upside that Rector can tap into is her 46th-place finish as a freshman at the 2022 cross country national meet. She was better throughout that season than she was last fall before finishing over 100 places further back on the national stage. Improvements on the track suggest that Rector should be closer to her freshman form in 2024.
The Bears don't necessarily need Rector to be an All-American to live up to this ranking. But without the lead-scoring presence of now-graduated Alexandra Blake, she'll need to be a more reliable middle-lineup piece now that she's an upperclassman -- and we think she certainly will be.
* * *
With Julia Patterson and Vivienne Larson entering this season as fringe top-50 names, it's plausible that this team will again put three women in the top-80 at the cross country national meet and that one of them will emerge as an All-American.
But what makes us think their backend will be improved enough for a higher finish?
Well, the Bears had a pretty productive 2024 track campaign. That was particularly true for the second half of their varsity lineup.
Jillian Heth, this team's fifth woman to cross the line at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, competed in the mile at the 2024 indoor national meet and then ran 17:18 over 5000 meters outdoors. That's one second faster than Rector's new PR.
Then there's Abigail Patterson. Finishing 181st at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships made her a pretty respectable seventh runner. That being said, this rising senior will need to be higher up in the national meet field if she's to be a scorer for a Bears group that aims to be a top-10 team this fall.
Fortunately, her qualifying for the steeplechase at the 2024 outdoor national meet gives us ample reason to believe that Abigail Patterson will improve in her second NCAA XC Championships showing.
In particular, she and Heth being better when it matters most will be especially important as Helena Teixeira-Dasilva's departure shaves off a portion of Washington U.'s depth.
Riley Clark and Macy Iyer weren't too far from being top-seven runners as sophomores throughout last fall, so they've already effectively auditioned for those final two varsity spots.
However, we can't rule out incoming freshmen Sofia Sheldon and Lauren Raley to make an immediate impact given that both have run under five minutes over 1600 meters, 10:50 (3200) and 18:20 (5k XC) as prep stars.
* * *
Another year brings another overabundance of backend options. We're not too worried about Washington U. forming a respectable lineup.
We feel relatively confident about Julia Patterson and Larson being fringe All-American names. That makes the back-half varsity returners -- Rector, Heth and Abigail Patterson -- the most crucial pieces to this lineup.
The Bears should have enough insurance for one of those women to have an "off" day on the national stage, but this team largely needs to be firing on all cylinders in order to match or improve upon this preseason placement.
Washington U.'s women's cross country program has admittedly struggled to return to "elite" status since their national title victory in 2018. They fell off of the podium in 2021 and out of the top-10 last fall.
Thankfully for them, we anticipate a reversal of that trend in the months ahead.
