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TSR's 2024 Preseason D2 XC Top 10 Team Rankings (Women): #9 Lewis Flyers
- Gavin Struve
- Sep 5, 2024
- 6 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
It's not like 2023 was the Lewis women's cross country team's first season being nationally competitive under Coach James Kearney. They were, after all, a top-20 team at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships.
Even so, last fall redefined what we thought this group was capable of.
With an uber-experienced core of returnees leading the way in 2024, the Flyers should continue to gradually fly up the national hierarchy. We anticipate that culminating in a top-10 finish at the cross country national meet after they hinted at that potential last fall.
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After showcasing their depth and competing favorably against Division One competition over 5000 meters at the 2023 National Catholic Invitational, the Lewis women really broke out at their home meet: the Lewis XC Crossover.
Racing on a familiar course, the Flyers put themselves right in the mix of a national-caliber field via up-front firepower and complementary backend depth.
Hannah Smrcka, an impact transfer from Seton Hill ahead of last year, placed 8th among over 300 women to beat a cast of stars from RMAC and GNAC teams. None of her teammates could match her low-stick abilities, but Caroline Pacer-Ryan (22nd), Abbey Kozak (23rd) and Anna Kozak (30th) more than held their own through the middle portion of the scoring lineup.
A small gap formed to the final scorer -- 49th-place Madilyn Calloway -- but her finishing right behind Anna Kozak would not have moved Lewis any further up the team standings than they already were. Plus, four other Lewis women occupied the next 13 spots after Calloway.
Ultimately, the Flyers finished 3rd, behind only podium teams Colorado Mines and Grand Valley State, and they beat squads like Winona State, Colorado Christian and Western Washington.
That effort changed our perception of this squad and their potential entering the postseason.
Lewis predictably won the GLVC XC Championships with ease. Smrcka took the individual conference title, Pacer-Ryan finished 4th and four other Flyers fit into the top-10 to easily win the conference's team title.
A 3rd-place effort at the Midwest Regional XC Championships was enough to advance to the national meet. The Flyers used a similar scoring structure to the Lewis XC Crossover on the regional stage, as Smrcka again placed 8th, Abbey Kozak and Anna Kozak finished 14th and 17th, respectively, and Pacer-Ryan joined them in the top-20.
Naylah Allen introduced herself as a fifth scorer, closing it out quickly enough in 32nd place.
The top five's hierarchy didn't change too much at the cross country national meet, but it felt like the Flyers left a decent amount of scoring on the table.
Smrcka, an All-American favorite, still led the way with a respectable 56th-place finish. However, the Flyers didn't have a low-stick leader with the same scoring potency as the other top-10 teams (which is where they were ranked at the time) in that setting. The Kozak sisters were dependable as ever, finishing 104th (Anna) and 105th (Abbey).
Pacer-Ryan followed close behind in 110th place, but the revolving door of fifth scorers took another spin, as Kate Guderjan fortunately closed the gap relatively quickly in 144th place.
Truthfully, it didn't feel like any of the Lewis women ran poorly at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. The Flyers' 15th-place finish was their best cross country national meet result in years. Even so, it felt like they left some points out on the course after how well they had performed weeks earlier against many of the same teams at their home meet just one state over.
Specifically, it felt like Smrcka and Pacer-Ryan each could have finished at least 20 to 30 places higher on the national stage. Fortunately for the Flyers, they'll have another opportunity to run up to their full potential in 2024.
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This space is usually where we detail teams' losses and their impact. When evaluating the Lewis Flyers in 2024, however, you'll find that they only lost one woman from their 2023 varsity lineup, and that would be their seventh runner (Rachael Morrison).
That's right, every scorer is back from a team that sat in our top-10 rankings for much of last fall.
Hannah Smrcka is again expected to be Lewis' low-stick star. Coming off of a 13th-place finish over 10,000 meters and a 16th-place effort over 5000 meters at the 2024 NCAA Outdoor Championships, we think it's more likely than not that she'll become a first-time All-American this fall.
Even if we thought she was capable of more, Smrcka's 2023 NCAA XC Championships effort was a considerable improvement from an already-solid 113th-place performance at the 2022 cross country national meet. Considering that she finished 136th in that setting in 2021, it feels fair to suggest that Smrcka has enjoyed the kind of linear improvement that most athletes dream of.
They weren't stars to the same extent, but Anna Kozak and Abbey Kozak were just as much of fixtures in Lewis' 2023 scoring lineup as Smrcka was. The former holds back-to-back top-110 finishes at the cross country national meet and seems poised to break into the top-100 in 2024.
She hinted at that upside with her top-30 finish at the Lewis Crossover and in running 4:28 (1500) and 17:17 (5k) on the oval in the time since.
Abbey Kozak, meanwhile, is slightly less proven on the grass outside of a top-25 effort at the 2023 Lewis XC Crossover. That being said, she ran 17:07 (5k) on the track earlier this year.
Caroline Pacer-Ryan was similarly reliable last fall. She was actually the Flyers' second scorer heading into the national meet and may occupy that status again this fall after winning the 2024 GLVC 10,000-meter title in addition to running 17:20 (5k) on the indoor oval.
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The four women we just outlined form a steady returning contingent, and we largely know what to expect from that group. However, one of the Flyers' only issues last fall was that they didn't have a constant final scorer to lean on week in and week out.
Someone always stepped up into that role to some extent, but we think this team should be far more complete at each scoring spot and beyond this fall. That's in part because the 2024 track season was also quite friendly to Kate Guderjan and Naylah Allen.
Guderjan, the team's fifth runner at the 2023 cross country national meet, ran 4:58 (mile) and 17:15 (5k), and Allen -- who has two top-180 efforts at the NCAA XC Championships under her belt -- ran 16:55 (5k) earlier this year. That's a no-joke effort which suggests that she could be in store for a breakout senior season.
Don't forget about Madilyn Calloway, either, after she was a varsity fixture for portions of last fall and ran multiple PRs earlier this year.
With all of that in mind, the most likely fifth figure in this team's 2024 lineup may be someone who wasn't on the team in 2023. Sarah May joins the Lewis women this year from Grand Valley State, the reigning D2 national team champions. It's understandable that she couldn't crack the Lakers' national meet lineup, but May is still plenty proven on the grass.
She placed 8th at the 2021 Lewis XC Crossover and was among the top-18 at the last three GLIAC XC Championships. She wasn't as strong at the 2023 Lewis XC Crossover, but she still would have been the Flyers' fifth scorer on the day, which is all they need her to be this fall.
Of course, May's true forte is racing on the track. She ran 9:52 (3k) and 16:44 (5k) in 2022, and it's not like she has fallen off since then. She was the GLIAC runner-up over 5000 meters this past spring, a week after running 16:46 over that distance.
In our eyes, May is the ideal transfer addition for the Lewis women. They won't be asking too much of her, but her star potential will elevate the Flyers should she find her stride in her new home of Romeoville, Illinois.
Another lineup option is Josephine Bober, who ran 17:20 (5k) this year and was part of the Flyers' varsity contingent at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships. Mary Edwards figures to be a future factor for this team on the grass after winning a conference title in the 3000-meter steeplechase as a freshman this past spring.
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Just as was the case last year, Lewis has a wealth of options to round out a robust varsity lineup. We anticipate that whoever fills the fifth-runner role won't have much trouble bridging the gap to the rest of the scorers in the months ahead.
It's possible that May could be the kind of impact addition that Smrcka was last year, but this team won't need her to be in order to meet its expectations. May only raises the Flyers' ceiling while bolstering their floor.
This is a team that returns all five scorers (who all finished in the top-145) after finishing in the top half of the team standings at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships despite not having their best day.
With a similar roster and race schedule in 2024, it's hard to imagine the Lewis women not improving in the months ahead.
