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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: #40-31 (Women)
- TSR Collaboration
- Jul 27, 2024
- 11 min read
Written by Rachel Hickey & Garrett Zatlin, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
40. Leane Willemse, Rs. Junior, Wisconsin
It's hard to dislike the scoring value of Leane Willemse. This Wisconsin veteran was so consistent and steady throughout last fall. She always showed up for a variety of different races and never fluctuated too much in terms of the impressiveness of her performances.
Last fall, the Badger ace settled for a 10th place finish at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. That was a fine result, but it didn't at all suggest that the Wisconsin runner was a top-50 talent. That, of course, changed when Willemse placed 34th at the Nuttycombe Invite and runner-up at the BIG 10 XC Championships.
On the national stage, we felt that Willemse's steadiness and consistency would result in her earning an All-American finish as more volatile distance talents faded in the madness of the crowd. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, but the Wisconsin ace was close to pulling it off with her 44th place effort.
After a year on the track where she ran personal bests in almost every event, it feels like Willemse is one of the safer non-All-Americans to earn a top-40 spot in these rankings. She proved to be ridiculously consistent last fall and she held her own in a variety of race settings.
The only critique that we have for Willemse is that we aren't entirely sure how high her ceiling is. While she seemingly has an incredibly high floor, it's tough to know if she has enough upside to reach a ranking that cracks our top-30.
Of course, if that's the only critique that we can offer this Wisconsin standout, then that's a very good problem to have.
39. Lucy Jenks, Senior, Georgetown
Lucy Jenks' decision to transfer to Georgetown has ultimately shifted the trajectory of the Hoyas' upcoming season. After showing flashes of being a low-stick talent last fall, Jenks should come into this cross country season favored to be an All-American...we think.
Admittedly, Jenks' performances throughout last fall seemingly fluctuated with each passing meet. Her 20th place finish at the Virginia Invitational was promising, but her 43rd place effort at Nuttycombe, while not bad, left us wanting the slightest bit more.
Thankfully, we got exactly that at the PAC-12 XC Championships where Jenks secured a huge 5th place finish, arguably the second-best cross country performance of her career. However, a 93rd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships left us scratching our heads as we struggled to properly gauge the overall success of Jenks' fall campaign.
Few women are more experienced on the grass than Jenks is. Remember how I mentioned that her PAC-12 performance was her "second-best" cross country result of her career? That's because the former Stanford talent once placed 49th at the NCAA XC Championships back in the fall of 2021.
In fact, Jenks has actually cracked the top-100 of the NCAA XC Championships four times in her career! The COVID season did not count towards her eligibility, but a national meet was still hosted in March of 2021.
That plentiful experience and improved fitness from last fall, paired with a large handful of sub-15:40 performances over 5000 meters, makes Jenks more than deserving enough of a top-50 ranking. Her steadiness on bigger stages will need to improve, but there is no question that she is talented enough to be an All-American.
38. Chloe Foerster, Junior, Washington
When people think of Chloe Foerster, they likely think of Super Bowl weekend when the then-sophomore came out of nowhere and ran a jaw-dropping mile PR of 4:28. But before that career-defining mile race, Foerster had actually proven to be a competitive name on the grass.
In retrospect, Foerster's 18th place finish at the Virginia Invite was probably a better result than we gave her credit for at the time. Despite her inexperience, the Washington runner took down five women who we have ranked in this year's top-50 so far (TSR #31 to TSR #50).
A 40th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite was fine, but a 7th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships was excellent. And funny enough, a 47th place finish at the national meet perfectly matches the sum of those two results.
Foerster, as we already mentioned, would go on to have incredible success on the track, even if she hasn't fared too well on the national stage. Her personal bests of 4:28 (mile) and 4:07 (1500), as well as a recent outdoor 3k PR of 8:58, suggest that she at least has enough pure talent to be an All-American this fall.
Despite some ups and downs that she has experienced on the oval, Foerster has actually been very steady on the grass. And truthfully, we don't have many critiques to offer. If she can simply continue to progress like she has over the last year, then this ranking may end up being too low.
37. Fatima Alanis, Senior, North Carolina
Once a standout Division Two star, Fatima Alanis has handled her transition to the Division One level incredibly well over the last two years. She has made the leap from being a D2 distance juggernaut to a D1 All-American. Now, as we prepare to enter the fall of 2024, can Alanis reach a new tier in the NCAA cross country scene?
90% of Fatima Alanis' 2023 cross country can best be described as "good," but likely nothing more than that. She was 26th at the Virginia Invitational, 41st at the Nuttycombe Invite and 12th at the ACC XC Championships. Her talent and consistency demanded respect, but it was also fair to say that she was likely not favored for an All-American honor.
Or so we thought.
When it mattered the most, Alanis was outstanding. The North Carolina veteran dropped a huge 32nd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships. That result turned out to be one of the very few bright spots for an otherwise brutal cross country season for the Tar Heel women.
Alanis made solid improvements on the track, but she never cracked the 16-minute barrier for 5k and did not crack the 33-minute barrier for 10k. She was also one spot out from qualifying for the NCAA Outdoor Championships in the latter event.
Ultimately, the "worst" version of Alanis as a low-stick scorer is still really good. She'll provide great scoring value for her team throughout the fall months. Her consistency deserves to be rewarded. However, we now know what her upside is after seeing her result at the NCAA XC Championships. To truly take that next leap, Alanis will need to replicate last year's postseason peak throughout the entirety of her fall campaign.
36. Jenny Schilling, Junior, Virginia
Some teams recruit from the top of the high school ranks to find their future star scorers. Other teams go into the transfer portal to find names who are already established. A large handful of others will often go overseas to find the best aerobic-based distance talents who are eager to prove their talent in America.
Jenny Schilling, however, came from none of those areas.
The unexpected Virginia star didn't even run in any formal capacity her freshman year until she joined her school's running club. And after some surprisingly good results, Schilling joined the Cavalier women as a walk-on last fall.
Now, Schilling is an established All-American rather than a little-known walk-on.
The entirety of Schilling's 2023 cross country was highly impressive given her lack of experience. In fact, her consistency was maybe the strongest aspect of her resume.
The first two races of Schilling's fall campaign resulted in a 23rd place finish at the Virginia Invitational and a 13th place result at Pre-Nationals. Those were both strong efforts for someone who was getting increasingly closer to the fringes of our top-50 rankings. A 10th place result at the ACC XC Championships only added to her case.
And then came the national meet, a stage that could have wiped out someone as inexperienced as Schilling. But instead, the exact opposite happened -- she thrived. The newest Virginia ace secured a huge 39th place All-American finish to her first collegiate season of competition.
Schilling would go on to run times of 16:02 (5k) and 32:44 (10k) on the track.
It's truthfully hard to find a flaw on Schilling's resume. She was incredibly consistent, handled a variety of races well, peaked for the postseason and continued to find success on the oval. And in theory, if anyone is going to have a super high ceiling or tons of untapped upside, it's more likely going to be someone who isn't as experienced at this level...like Schilling.
At this point, we can only gauge her talent. And for the time being, we think a TSR #36 ranking seems like a strong and fair spot.
35. Karrie Baloga, Sophomore, Northern Arizona
If you’re a fan of the Blue Oval Podcast, then you know how we (or at least some of us) at TSR feel about steeplechase success translating to the grass.
In short, it doesn’t always.
Take Kenneth Rooks of BYU as a perfect example.
Rooks won the men’s steeplechase national title in the spring of 2023 and posted a blistering time of 8:15 in the event. Some people had him as a top-20 name for the following cross country season. And yet, he only placed 35th at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships in what was easily his best race of the season.
And to be clear, that was not a bad finish by any means -- it was actually a fantastic result -- but many did expect a bit more after his breakout steeple season.
In theory, the same argument may apply to the still-young Karrie Baloga of Northern Arizona. The rising sophomore broke out in a big way this past spring, running a massive 9:42 steeplechase PR to place 8th at the national meet, earning her first All-American honor at the collegiate level.
The difference, however, is that Baloga has already proven to be a valuable scorer on the grass during her short time at Colorado. While some of her races from last fall were better than others, the potential for her to become a true low-stick was almost palpable.
Despite her "just okay" 82nd place finish at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, Baloga’s combination of genuine talent and developmental training from head coach Mike Smith makes her chances of being an All-American this fall plenty feasible. She did, after all, prove herself to be a worthy cross country threat in 2023 by placing 21st at the Virginia Invitational, 39th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 8th at the PAC-12 XC Championships.
Inexperience is probably the biggest obstacle for the young rising star as Baloga is still fairly new to the NCAA racing circuit and has yet to race on the grass with the women in Flagstaff (she transferred from Colorado last winter). We should expect to see her benefit greatly from an experienced training group that includes the likes of Elise Stearns, Maggi Congdon, Ali Upshaw and Alyson Churchill.
As demonstrated by her breakout spring season, Baloga's transition to NAU has only yielded strong results. As such, we at The Stride Report felt that it was only necessarily to reward her with a preseason ranking of TSR #35.
34. Ali Upshaw, Senior, Northern Arizona
Quite possibly the biggest “x-factor” for the Northern Arizona women last fall and this fall, Ali Upshaw enters the 2024 cross country season building on a fantastic aerobic base from her 2024 outdoor track season. The former New Mexico talent posted an impressive 32:53 (10k) PR this past spring and found a spot to this year's outdoor national meet.
Truthfully, in her lead up to the 2023 NCAA XC Championships, Upshaw had only one legitimate test against top-tier competition. That meet, of course, was the Nuttycombe Invite where posted an outstanding 12th place finish seemingly out of nowhere. And yet, despite the wildly impressive result, Upshaw would eventually settle for a 57th place finish at the national meet, a placement that fell a bit short of expectations.
Even so, the Nuttycombe Invitational proved to us that Upshaw has a ridiculously high ceiling. And if a 57th place finish at the national meet is her "floor," then that's a very good problem to have. When she is at her best, Upshaw has the ability to be a top-half All-American this fall, as shown by her multiple flashes of brilliance and obvious aerobic base.
Of course, before we can put her in that range, we will need to see a few more data points and also a strong result national meet -- something she is more than capable of.
If Upshaw can replicate that mid-season burst of top-tier performances in the postseason, then the women from Flagstaff should be in great shape to snatch a national title. Until then, we felt like this was a good spot which acts as a middle ground for her two major 2023 cross country results.
33. Brianna Weidler, Senior, UC-Davis
If Weidler were to return to the national stage this fall on the grass, it would be her third-consecutive time qualifying for the national meet as an individual, a truly impressive feat on it's own.
And when you add in the fact that Weidler has finished in 51st place and 31st place in her last two NCAA XC Championship appearances, you begin to feel better and better about placing her at this spot in our rankings.
Weidler's consistent ability to show up on the big stage is admirable, especially given that her regular season schedule is much weaker than many others at the cross country national meet. With UC Davis being a member of the BIG West Conference, the only meet outside the postseason where Weidler faced nationally competitive teams and individuals last fall was at the Joe Piane Invitational (and she fared well, placing 7th overall).
The UC-Davis veteran also had an excellent spring season to back up her performances on the grass, having posted a 15:38 (5k) PR to qualify for the West Regional Championships. However, Weidler finished just four spots out of qualifying for the national meet in a tactical race.
It's admittedly hard to analyze Weidler's resume deeper than we already have. She is a steady and reliable postseason performer who is seemingly still improving. And yet, her limited racing schedule makes it challenging to compare her to other top-tier names.
Even so, we would never bet against this UC-Davis star in the postseason, regardless of her regular season slate. Her consistency paired with the fitness that she flexed in the spring makes Weidler a dangerous competitor come November and a genuine two-time All-American threat.
32. Laura Pellicoro, Senior, Portland
Pellicoro might be more talked about for her range and success on the track rather than her accolades on the grass. That, however, does not mean that this veteran Portland star should be ignored when we reach October and November.
The Pilot veteran has been quietly consistent in her years representing the Portland women, especially on the national stage. Pellicoro placed an excellent 25th overall at the 2022 national meet and barely missed All-American honors last fall with a 41st place effort.
Only one of those may have been an All-American honor, but both results show tremendous reliability on an often unnerving stage.
Pellicoro can handle her own on the cross country course, but her true talent is best highlighted on the oval. The Portland ace boasts PRs of 2:03 (800), 4:11 (1500), 4:31 (mile) and 9:00 (3k) to go along with her aerobic strength in the fall. In theory, that should give at least some flexibility in different styles of races.
Obviously, Pellicoro is no stranger to the NCAA Championships and she will likely lean on that experience once more to navigate her races in October and November. She also has plenty of experience racing in Madison, having contested the Nuttycombe Invite the past three years.
Pellicoro will surely be hungry for another first-team All-American finish on the grass after falling just short in 2023 by a single spot. And as one of the most experienced and reliable postseason runners in the NCAA, we felt it was only right to place her at TSR #32.
31. Mckaylie Caesar, Rs. Senior, Utah
Having joined the Utes last fall as a graduate transfer from Cal State Fullerton, Mckaylie Caesar had a breakout cross country season.
The collegiate veteran truly proved herself to be an upper-echelon talent on the grass throughout last fall, finishing 5th at the Griak Invitational in her Utah debut and 9th at the PAC-12 XC Championships leading up to the national meet. Even so, none of those results could have prepared us to see Caesar post an incredible 26th place All-American finish in her season finale. That, in turn, made her one of the biggest breakout stars in the NCAA last fall.
Yes, we'll admit, Caesar's resume isn't entirely void of imperfections. Her track times do not reflect her current fitness as she only competed three times during the winter and was absent during the spring. We also can't ignore that she settled for a somewhat underwhelming 76th place finish at last year's Nuttycombe Invite.
Truthfully, those were the major factors holding her back from being a top-30 name this preseason.
Even so, the Utah women will rely on Caesar's years of racing experience and momentum from last fall to lead the Utes to another impressive finish at the NCAA XC Championships. And of course, the BIG 12 XC Championships will now pose an entirely new and different threat than what this team faced last year.
