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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: #40-31 (Men)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Jul 27, 2024
- 11 min read
40. Dennis Kipruto, Freshman, Alabama
So...how on Earth do we rank Dennis Kipruto?
When it was first announced that this current Alabama rookie was entering the NCAA, there was understandable awe about what this Crimson Tide talent could be capable of doing over the longer distances. He did, after all, drop an incredible half-marathon time of 60:51, a mark that was reported by Alabama athletics.
Since then, Kipruto has found success at the NCAA...but he wasn't necessarily an unstoppable force over 10,000 meters like some expected him to be. His seasonal best mark of 28:44 was fine, and he did qualify for the outdoor national meet, but the Alabama freshman would end his collegiate season with a DNF on that sage.
But here's where things get tricky.
At first glance, you can look at Kipruto's World Athletics profile and see that it has been updated with a series of collegiate performances that align with his TFRRS profile. All of that seemingly checks out. However, upon review, you would also notice a large handful of races from earlier this year took place in Japan. And in many instances, those races took place on the same weekend of major NCAA invitationals/meets.
In other words, there appears to be an accidental overlapping of two men named Dennis Kipruto. Unfortunately, we find it hard to believe that the Crimson Tide freshman ran a 5k race on May 10th in Japan, a second 5k race on May 11th in the United States and then a third 5k race on May 12th in Japan.
But based strictly on his TFRRS data, Kipruto has proven to be talented enough to be viewed as a threat for All-American honors this fall. He was at least able to make it to the outdoor national meet and we struggle to believe that a 60:51 half-marathoner wouldn't be in contention for a top-40 finish on the national stage in November.
39. Nicholas Bendtsen, Senior, Princeton
Last year, the Ivy League was headlined by the incredible success of Harvard star, Graham Blanks. He was, after all, undefeated throughout the season and the eventual national champion.
But lost in the mix of Blanks' success was Nicholas Bendtsen, a Princeton standout who peaked beautifully for the postseason.
Last fall, Bendtsen started off his fall campaign with a 52nd place finish at the Virginia Invite, a truthfully unexciting result. But then the Tiger veteran finished 42nd at the Nuttycombe Invite. That result wasn't enough to make him a top-50 name, but it was a very strong step in the right direction -- and Bendtsen capitalized on that.
After an admittedly forgettable 4th place finish at the Ivy League XC Championships, Bendtsen had the race of his life at the national meet. On the rolling hills of Charlottesville, Virginia, the Princeton star posted a fantastic 29th place All-American finish. Relative to expectations, he peaked for the postseason better than most men in the NCAA.
Thankfully, Bendtsen proved on the track that his cross country success wasn't a fluke. Encouraging marks of 3:59 (mile) and 7:54 (3k) eventually led to him advancing to the outdoor national meet over 5000 meters (where he unfortunately struggled).
Our hopes for Bendtsen this fall are pretty simple: Be more consistent at the highest tier of his fitness. It's hard to argue against the idea that the resume of this Princeton ace is carried by his incredible All-American result from last fall. If he wants to crack the top-30 of our rankings, then we'll need to see that kind of effort throughout the entirety of this season.
But after flashing multiple moments of encouraging development throughout last year, we feel like our above ask is more than realistic for this rising Ivy League talent.
38. Justine Kipkoech, Junior*, Eastern Kentucky
*Eligibility still unclear
When we started our individual cross country rankings, it had not yet been reported that Justine Kipkoech, a 3:32 (1500) and 7:38 (3k) runner, was joining Eastern Kentucky. Thankfully, on the same day that it was announced that he was joining the Colonels, we realized that a runner in this section was actually out of cross country eligibility.
That, in turn, left a spot open for Kipkoech.
We'll admit, this ranking has the potential to be far too low. The now-former College of the Sequoias athlete has had an unreal summer on the track, dropping his metric mile time down to a mark that is probably just a bit short of being considered world class. Of course, as you all know, we try not to lean too heavily into the idea that milers will be great cross country runners -- we need to success at the longer distances.
Of course, Kipkoech has that area covered as well. His incredible 7:38 (3k) PR, which was run on an outdoor oval, suggests that he can be an All-American talent on the grass. His 5k mark of 13:22 (which was run on the roads) somewhat benefits his resume as well.
In terms of raw talent, Kipkoech is probably a top-10 runner in the NCAA right now. However, trying to figure out how his 1500-meter and 3000-meter performances will translate to the rolling hills of a 10k race is extremely tricky to balance.
Until we have greater clarity as to what Kipkoech can do in that setting, we'll keep him at our TSR #38 spot for now.
37. Evan Jenkins, Rs. Sophomore, Washington
The version of Evan Jenkins that you saw last fall is not at all the same version that you'll see this year. In 2024, we expect this rising Washington ace to be a major threat for All-American honors -- as long as he can translate his recent sucecss to the grass.
Last fall, Jenkins' top cross country result was a 10th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships. However, it wouldn't be until the winter and spring months that this now-redshirt sophomore would truly blossom.
On the oval, Jenkins captured our attention with times of 3:59 (mile) and 7:46 (3k). However, his biggest statement would come at the Stanford Invitational where the Husky star secured a monster 10k win (apparently on his birthday) in a time of 28:04. He also ran 13:34 for 5000 meters at the Payton Jordan Invitational last year.
Unfortunately, the end of Jenkins' spring campaign proved to be challenging as he struggled at the West Regional Championships. Even so, one thing was abundantly clear after watching him race: Evan Jenkins is going to be a problem for his opponents on the grass.
It feels incredibly obvious to us that Jenkins has a ton of potential and untapped upside remaining within him. He's now a more experienced runner who just had a breakout year on the track. And in our eyes, it would be stunning if a 28:04 (10k) runner didn't pose as a legitimate threat to be a top-40 talent this fall.
Yes, this ranking does require some projection, but we feel like there is more than enough evidence to justify this spot.
36. Adisu Guadia, Sophomore, Oklahoma State
This is yet another incredibly tricky name to rank.
Adisu Guadia didn't make his NCAA debut until the BIG 12 XC Championships from last fall. On that stage, he struggled a bit, fading hard to 22nd place. But after a top-five finish at the Midwest regional meet, Guadia salvaged his season with an admirable 50th place result at the NCAA XC Championships. Of course, that collection of results was not enough for him to be a ranked name.
But what we saw from Guadia on the oval only added to the obvious raw talent that we could so clearly see that he posses. An excellent 28:10 PR for 10,000 meters at the beginning of the season led to the Oklahoma State underclassman qualifying for the outdoor national meet (where he truthfully struggled).
Yes, it's true, we don't have many results to analyze for Adisu Guadia. We also don't have many results from him which suggest that he is a top-50 name. And yet, it feels wrong to not rank someone who has run 28:10 (10k), was a top-50 runner at the national meet last year, was an outdoor national meet qualifier in the spring and clearly holds tons of raw talent.
We don't know if this is the "correct" spot for Guadia, but it does feel like the "right" spot for him...if that makes any sense at all.
35. Rodger Rivera, Senior, Texas
Throughout last fall, you could see that Rodger Rivera was brimming with upside and was ultimately due for a breakout race. The Texas veteran had been so solid for the Longhorns throughout his career and after seeing multiple flashes of promise, it felt like he was overdue for a statement performance.
Unfortunately, we didn't see a breakout race happen at the Cowboy Jamboree (5th), the Nuttycombe Invite (50th) or the BIG 12 XC Championships (10th). Although, make no mistake, those were all respectable results, especially the latter meet given how top-heavy the BIG 12 has become in recent years.
Even so, there wasn't much on Rivera's resume which suggested that he would be an All-American last fall.
Of course, Rivera paid no mind to that fact.
At the NCAA XC Championships, Rivera had the single-greatest race of his career...and it wasn't even close. The Texas star scorched the grass in Charlottesville, Virginia to land a monumental 23rd place All-American result. Rivera, along with Devin Hart, would give the Longhorns a 7th place team finish at the national meet.
So why is a guy who was 23rd at the national meet ranked at TSR #35?
Well, for a couple of reasons.
The first reason is because Rivera simply didn't look like an All-American-caliber runner until the national meet last fall. And as we have stated multiple times before, we look at the entirety of someone's resume, not just the national meet.
The second reason is because we haven't seen Rivera race since last fall. We have confirmed that he is returning, but that's not necessarily the most encouraging thing to see (or in this case, not see) going into a brand new academic year.
Regardless, Rivera has proven that his talent ceiling, at least when it comes to cross country, is better than all but two (and maybe three) men in this section of our rankings. If the Texas star is able to replicate even half of that postseason magic throughout the entirety of this season, then he'll likely move up in our rankings.
34. Sam Lawler, Junior, Syracuse
We feel like Sam Lawler is a fairly underrated cross country talent. Sure, some of his results from last fall didn't always leave your jaw on the floor, but this Syracuse runner made tons of progress throughout last year and was incredibly reliable. And instead of the Orange having a strong 1-2 punch, Lawler gave them a "Big Three" identity.
Lawler's 35th place finish at last year's Virginia Invitational was a solid result for him at the time. It didn't suggest that he was a top-50 talent, but it was a good way for him to start his season. That momentum would only pick up at the Nuttycombe Invitational where he placed 34th overall.
And suddenly, Lawler had our attention.
A 10th place finish at the ACC XC Championships was respectable. It didn't boost his stock in any significant way, but it was still another commendable result that further built towards his reputation of having great reliability.
Sure enough, that reliability was fully shown on the national stage. At a meet that could have easily overwhelmed someone new to the highest tiers of competition, Lawler still delivered, placing 34th overall for his first-ever All-American honors.
We absolutely love what Lawler brings to the table. He never let his team down last fall and, for the most part, he only got better as the season went on. It's still unclear what his ceiling is, but we do know that his 2023 fall campaign was hardly a fluke after he qualified for the outdoor national meet.
We don't know how high he'll ultimately rise in these rankings, but we would be surprised if Lawler ended his season outside of our top-40.
33. Ethan Strand, Senior, North Carolina
We are very big fans of Ethan Strand. He has been so impressive in every season of competition that he's been in, especially when he touches the track. His range has made him lethal across distances, but his raw talent over 1500 meters and the mile can be seen in his 3:35 metric mile PR from earlier this year.
But when you go back and review his results from last fall, we couldn't help but notice how steady and reliable Strand proved to be on the grass despite stepping up in distance. The North Carolina earned a very solid 20th place finish at the Virginia Invitational, an even more encouraging 27th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite, a strong 6th place result at the ACC XC Championships and a commendable 43rd place effort at the national meet.
You could argue that Strand's "worst" race of the 2023 cross country season came on the national stage where he was just three spots away from All-American honors. That, or him placing 20th at the Virginia Invite. Regardless, that's a very good problem to have if you're Coach Chris Miltenberg.
Strand showed last fall that he can be a true low-stick for a nationally competitive team. He was incredibly reliable and took down some sneaky-good names at each meet. We're strong believers that he's an All-American talent, but there's also not a lone cross country result on his resume which screams that Strand is undoubtedly a top-30 runner on the grass.
We expect that to change this fall, but until then, we'll keep him at TSR #33.
32. Ben Shearer, Rs. Junior, Arkansas
You could make the argument that, among nationally competitive names, no one had a bigger breakout season than Ben Shearer did in the fall of 2023.
The Arkansas talent had been a respectable contributor to the Razorbacks in the few years that he had been with the program. However, saying that he was anywhere close to be a "low-stick" going into last fall would have been a fairly big stretch.
A win at the Cowboy Preview was nice to see and a runner-up effort at the Chile Pepper XC Festival was also solid. Of course, Pre-Nationals would be the far more important race to monitor. And at one of the bigger regular season meets of the year, Shearer thrived, securing an outstanding individual win. The newest Arkansas star took down the likes of Yaseen Abdalla, Kirami Yego, Chandler Gibbens, Patrick Kiprop and more.
Of course, with such a shocking (and impressive) result coming out of nowhere, we wanted Shearer to validate his Pre-Nationals win. Thankfully, he did exactly that with an applause-worthy 5th place run at the SEC XC Championships.
The verdict was in: Ben Shearer is the real deal.
A 42nd place finish at the NCAA XC Championships truthfully felt a bit underwhelming for a guy who had looked so strong over top stars at Pre-Nationals. Even so, that was still a strong result which provided great scoring value for an Arkansas team that got onto the podium.
If there were still any doubts about Shearer's status as a top-tier name, then his newest personal bests of 3:59 (mile), 7:46 (3k) and 13:32 (5k) likely silenced any remaining critics.
In the grand scheme of things, it's hard to truly find a flaw on Shearer's resume. He won a major invitational and was a top-five finisher at a top-heavy Power Five conference meet. The only thing he needs to do now is deliver on the national stage...and even then he was still pretty solid.
31. Devin Hart, Senior, Oregon
Alright, before you all raise your torches and pitchforks, allow me to explain why we opted to place Devin Hart at this spot.
Yes, Devin Hart was absolutely brilliant last fall for Texas. The former Longhorn placed 17th at the Nuttycombe Invite, 4th at the top-heavy BIG 12 XC Championships and then scored a fantastic 11th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships.
Simply put, Hart wasn't just a star-caliber runner for his team or conference. Instead, he was a legitimate nationally recognized star.
Hart would go on to leave Austin, Texas in favor of Oregon earlier this year. Unfortunately, his performances on the oval were not encouraging. While he did run as fast as 28:36 for 10,000 meters, Hart was a non-factor at the PAC-12 XC Championships and was unable to get out of the West region.
Trying to reconcile the insane cross country firepower of Devin Hart with his highly underwhelming spring campaign is a near-impossible task. Truthfully, we have no idea where to rank Oregon's newest low-stick weapon.
We don't necessarily believe that Hart is the 31st-best cross country runner in the NCAA and we also don't believe that he'll finish his season at this spot. But in an attempt to find a proper middle ground between his two seasons of racing, we felt like this was a reasonable compromise.
