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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 50 Rankings: #50-41 (Women)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Jul 26, 2024
- 10 min read
50. Lydia Miller, Senior, Lipscomb
We will admit, we struggled mightily to find the right spot for Lydia Miller in our rankings.
Miller's 2023 cross country season was filled with ups, downs and everything in between. Take for instance her effort at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. A 5th place result in one of the more underrated meets of the year was impressive. And yet, no one whom she beat would go on to be an All-American.
A 68th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite was the slightest bit underwhelming. And after cruising through the ASUN XC Championships with her teammates, an 18th place finish at the South regional meet felt like it could have been better, too.
And yet, in the grand scheme of things, none of that mattered.
That's because Miller would put together an insanely clutch 38th place All-American performance on the national stage. That result gave her team a true low-stick which led the Bison to an 11th place team finish in their season finale.
The goal for Miller this fall is fairly straightforward: Be more consistent at the highest levels of her fitness. That, however, isn't to say that she was running poorly last fall. Outside of maybe the South regional meet (which we rarely review anyway), this Lipscomb ace never had a truly poor effort. And sometimes, that's half the battle when it comes to our rankings.
Now, with a valuable year of high-level experience under her belt, the sky is the limit for the Bison's focal lead scorer.
49. Ashley Jones, Junior, Tennessee
Throughout last fall, you could see that Ashley Jones was on the verge of a major breakout. Since transferring over from High Point, the now-junior has evolved into a lead scorer for a fast-rising Volunteer team.
A 12th place finish at Pre-Nationals, which led to wins over Jenny Schilling and Izzy Thornton-Bott, was a very encouraging result for Jones. However, a 10th place result at the SEC XC Championships, while great, also had the potential to be the slightest bit better.
But Jones' true breakout race came at the national meet where she secured a huge 42nd place finish. And although she was two spots out from All-American honors, she still led the Volunteers to an incredible 6th place finish.
Of course, things have gotten quite crazy since then.
If you (somehow) didn't hear, Tennessee coach Sean Carlson has been hired as Colorado's next Director of Track & Field and Cross Country. And naturally, speculation has shifted to whether or not certain Volunteer athletes (like Ashley Jones) will join him in Boulder.
But regardless of whether Jones stays or leaves, the momentum and consistency she has shown throughout last fall has been very promising. As long as she is able to maintain this ongoing progression, then she'll end up as an All-American favorite in November.
48. Emily Covert, Rs. Senior, Notre Dame
The journey of Emily Covert through the NCAA has been anything but boring.
After joining the Colorado women as a star recruit from the high school ranks, Covert picked up momentum and found great success as a collegian. The former Buffalo earned a 31st place cross country All-American honor in the fall of 2021 and later earned a 10k All-American honor the following spring.
Simply put, Covert could do no wrong.
Covert's 2022 fall campaign was arguably just as good after she placed 16th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 29th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 3rd at the PAC-12 XC Championships. Unfortunately, she would struggle for the remainder of the postseason.
After battling through injuries and illness, Covert returned to the grass last fall and captured plenty of attention with her strong 5th place result at the Virginia Invitational. That, however, would be her main highlight of the season as she went on to place 42nd at Nuttycombe, 12th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 50th at the NCAA XC Championships.
Since then, Covert has transferred to Tennessee for the indoor and outdoor track seasons before transferring yet again this summer to attend Notre Dame.
At her best, Covert is an All-American talent who can lead a team and take down top-tier names. Yes, her consistency in recent seasons needs improvement, especially on the national stage. But if the floor for Covert's performances leads to a 50th place finish at the national meet, then her ceiling is theoretically that of a top-30 runner.
We may not always know what version of Covert we're getting, but we do know that any version of Covert is good enough for her to be a high-impact scorer.
Side note: I thought it was pretty ironic that Covert went from Colorado to Tennessee to Notre Dame while her now-former coach Sean Carlson went from Notre Dame to Tennessee to Colorado.
47. Erin Strzelecki, Senior, Notre Dame
You will not find many women who are as clutch as Erin Strzelecki is in the postseason. If you don't believe me, then just look at her TFRRS resume and compare her regular season results to her postseason results.
Sure, we could go through each race of Strzelecki's 2023 season and talk about whether or not certain results were good or not. But when it comes to this Fighting Irish veteran, the larger picture is what truly matters.
In her three cross country national meet showings, Strzelecki has placed 80th (2021), 54th (2022) and 37th (2023) with the latter result earning an All-American honor. Not only that, but she was also a surprise 2023 outdoor national meet qualifier in the 10k as well as the ACC indoor 5k champion this past winter.
Make no mistake, Strzelecki's regular season performances have also improved. However, if you were to take last year's national meet result out of her resume, then I'm not confident that she would have made our "Honorable Mentions" list. As a website that values someone's entire body of work, we're still hoping that Strzelecki will replicate her postseason magic before the championship portion of the upcoming season. But even if she doesn't, it's hard to be too critical of someone who always shows up for the single-most important meet of the year.
46. Maggi Congdon, Junior, Northern Arizona
I imagine that a lot of people are reading this article and thinking, "They just ranked Maggi Congdon at this spot because she ran 4:02 (1500) at the Olympic Trials."
And to some extent, yes! That's true!
But as we all know, one race cannot make up someone's entire athletic identity. And given how different cross country usually is from the middle distances on the track, it would be silly lean on that lone PR and only that PR.
That's why it's important to also highlight the fact that Congdon was strong across the board last fall, showcasing promising consistency. Her 16th place result at the Virginia Invite was arguably the best result of her season, but a 47th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite was also a really solid performance as well. Congdon then capped her season with a 60th place result at the national meet.
If you were strictly looking at Congdon's 2023 cross country season (and only that season), then that wouldn't be enough for her to be ranked. Similarly, if you only looked at Congdon's fantastic success on the track this past year, specifically her 4:02 (1500) mark, then we wouldn't see enough aerobic-centric results for her to be ranked.
Of course, when you combine her already-strong cross country prowess with an obvious jump in fitness from the track, one has to think that Congdon is at least capable of threatening for an All-American honor this fall.
Yes, this ranking does require a bit of projection, but we feel like we've seen enough to comfortably justify putting Congdon at TSR #46.
45. Sophia Kennedy, Sophomore, Stanford
Sophia Kennedy's best result last year was either a 33rd place finish at the Virginia Invitational or a 95th place effort at the NCAA XC Championships. And yes, I can already hear what you're about to ask.
"But Garrett, those results aren't anywhere close to others who are being ranked! Why did you guys rank this relatively unproven sophomore?"
Well, for a variety of reasons.
Kennedy was a true star at the prep level and probably had one of the best rookie years of anyone in her national high school class. Sure, a few of her cross country results were respectable, but it was the jumps that she made on the track that caught our attention. The Stanford runner posted a 15:43 (5k) mark on the indoor oval and then advanced to the outdoor oval where she ran a new 5k PR of 15:33 to place 11th at the outdoor national meet.
Between the pedigree, the flashes of cross country promise and the statement 5k performances made on the oval, Kennedy is 100% primed to have a monster year on the grass. The Cardinal athlete is brimming with tons of upside and has the potential to exceed this ranking if her freshman-to-sophomore-year jump is as effective as we think it will be.
Sure, Kennedy is still unproven and she will most likely have at least one hiccup this fall. But if the end result comes anywhere close to matching this ranking, then that should be considered a highly successful season.
44. Sadie Sigfstead, Rs. Junior, Villanova
I would argue that Sadie Sigfstead is one of the more underrated women's cross country runners in the NCAA. The Villanova talent was so incredibly steady throughout last fall and earned some quietly great finishes. She even got better on the track!
Here's a fun fact: Sigfstead never finished outside of the top-10 of any cross country meet last year until the NCAA XC Championships.
She won the Main Line Invitational (rust-buster), was 2nd at the Battle in Beantown (encouraging), placed 8th at Pre-Nationals (very strong), settled for 4th at the BIG East XC Championships (which was expected), was victorious at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships (great) and then took 71st place at the NCAA XC Championships (not ideal, but not awful).
The Wildcat veteran later went on to run 32:45 for 10,000 meters and qualify for the outdoor national meet this past spring.
Just like we go on to mention with Yasna Petrova below, Sigfstead is a super reliable name who is going to deliver impactful scoring value at pretty much any meet she toes the line for. Yes, we would agree that her national meet results needs to be better. That, however, shouldn't take away from her entire body of work.
43. Silan Ayyildiz, Sophomore, Oregon
We'll admit, this is a bit of a controversial ranking.
Silan Ayyildiz transferred from South Carolina to Oregon last winter -- and the move has (for the most part) been a success. During the winter months, Ayyildiz posted times of 4:30 (mile) and 8:54 (3k). She also helped the Ducks earn All-American honors in the DMR.
Of course, it was the outdoor oval where Ayyildiz caught everyone's attention.
At the Bryan Clay Invitational, Ayyildiz moved up to the 5000-meter distance. And yet, despite that being only her second-ever 5k on the track, the newest Oregon runner threw down a jaw-dropping time of 15:15! That mark put her at NCAA #14 all-time for the outdoor track season.
The problem, however, is that Ayyildiz struggled (a lot) in that event throughout the postseason. She failed to score a point in the 5k at the PAC-12 Outdoor Championships and she barely qualified for the outdoor national meet in that event (she was the final woman in). On the national stage, Ayyildiz faded to 16th place.
Historically, Ayyildiz has built her reputation over 1500 meters and she has proven to be far more comfortable with that distance than the 5k. Sure, her Bryan Clay Invitational performance was absolutely brilliant and she even placed 7th at the SEC XC Championships last year (one of her two cross country races). Even so, the comfort with the longer distances still feels like a work in progress.
And yet, despite all of that, there was zero chance that we were going to leave Ayyildiz out of these rankings. Being among the top-15 outdoor 5k runners in NCAA history and not being ranked in our top-50 cross country rankings seems pretty ridiculous. We still need to see her prove herself on the grass, but we at least know that the talent is very much there for her.
42. Yasna Petrova, Senior, California Baptist
When people think of California Baptist, they likely think of Greta Karinauskaite, the team's steeplechase star. But the woman who has offered so much valuable scoring and support behind Karinauskaite has been Yasna Petrova.
Sure, Petrova's upside doesn't seem to be as high as a few others in this section. That, however, shouldn't really matter. The CBU veteran has been fairly consistent and very reliable throughout her career.
Last fall, for instance, Petrova placed 6th at the Griak Invitational (solid), 35th at the Nuttycombe Invitational (really encouraging) and 45th at the NCAA XC Championships (on par with expectations). Yes, she did have an odd flukey day at the WAC XC Championships, but for the most part, Petrova was incredibly steady last fall.
And if you need more evidence of Petrova's scoring value, then just look back at the fall of 2022 when she placed runner-up at the Weis-Crockett Invitational (Pre-Nationals) and was 77th at the national meet. It was also promising to see Petrova throw down a strong 10k PR of 32:36 at the Stanford Invite in the spring.
Petrova is probably not going to spark many major headlines this fall. In fact, I would argue that she is going to be overlooked by many. But thankfully, you read The Stride Report, so you won't surprised if you look at the national meet results in November and find her in the top-40.
41. Carmen Alder, Senior, BYU
No one left us scratching our heads last fall more than Carmen Alder did. The BYU runner showcased multiple moments of incredible fitness in 2023. But on the stage that mattered the most, her performance was...well, bad.
Alder was one of last year's more pleasant surprises when she took down women like Maddy Elmore, Paityn Noe, Margot Appleton, Sadie Sigfstead, Sydney Thorvaldson and all of her teammates to win gold at Pre-Nationals. And for those who needed to see more from Alder, the Cougar low-stick mostly validated her effort with a 7th place finish at the BIG 12 XC Championships.
Unfortunately, Alder fell victim to an old-fashioned bad day (well, awful day) at the national meet, finishing second-to-last among finishers. But in a weird way, it was almost better that Alder finished in 246th place rather than 100th place. At least with the former result, no one is going to look at that performance and think that it was anything other than a fluke -- because it was.
We're not going to overreact to a clear outlier performance and suddenly suggest that Alder doesn't deserve a ranking inside of our top-50. We do, admittedly, need to pull her back on our list and find a good middle ground which rewards her Pre-Nationals win, but also requires a stronger national meet performance in the future.
Thankfully, we're not too worried about that last part.
