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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Women): #18 Furman Paladins
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 15, 2024
- 9 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Last year, the Paladins entered the 2023 cross country season as a grown up and developed group of distance standouts. They were experienced, boasted great depth, had an interchangeable lineup and boasted one of the more reliable postseason low-sticks in the country.
For the most part, last fall can be viewed as a success for Furman even if they didn't have their lead ace for most of the season and they didn't fare too well on the national stage. But the year is now 2024 and the expectations are as high as they have been since we listed this group at TSR #10 in our 2019 preseason rankings.
Make no mistake, there is still going to be room for this team to be nationally competitive even after the upcoming cross country season concludes. But this fall is arguably the best opportunity that the Furman women will have for a while to truly maximize (and deliver on) their potential.
* * *
The first test of Furman's 2023 cross country season took place at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational. That meet would feature a handful of nationally competitive teams such as Ole Miss, Wisconsin, Lipscomb and more. And as the season progressed, those same teams would prove to be arguably even more competitive than we had initially expected.
Even so, the Paladins thrived, putting together a complete team performance that was largely unmatched by their competition. Carly Wilkes (6th) and Kaylie Armitage (7th) led the way with a highly valuable 1-2 scoring punch. Those performances were, at the time, potentially the best efforts that we had ever seen from either of those women. Bethany Graham (11th) was expected to be contending for a top-five finish, but a solid and stable middle-lineup result was welcomed as well. With Abigail Robertson (15th) and Sierra Bower (19th) closing out the Paladins' top-five, the Furman women were able to snag a strong eight-point win over a talented Ole Miss team.
The Paladins were excellent in their season-opener, putting together a complete and balanced lineup which had great depth. That scoring structure, however, would then be given an even more challenging test at the Nuttycombe Invite.
Of course, that meet would be more challenging beyond the simple fact that the competition was better. It was also because Bethany Graham, the team's two-time All-American, was sidelined.
In Madison, Wisconsin, Carley Wilkes extended her stretch of great racing by earning a quietly excellent 37th place effort. And given the absence of Graham, having her step up like that to provide the scoring potency that she did was huge. Kaylie Armitage (71st) was yet another very strong and underrated secondary scorer while Abigail Robertson (82nd) and Sierra Bower (84th) had surprisingly great days.
Those were arguably the best performances that we had ever seen from each of the four above-mentioned women. They had a lead scorer, their middle lineup group brought just as much value (relatively speaking) and the floor of this team had seemingly raised quite a bit.
However, Furman's final scorer would fade to 170th place. And while the Paladins had a fantastic top-four, that group could only hold down their team score by so much. That was especially true given that they didn't have anyone crack the top-30 and only one woman crack the top-70.
In the end, the Paladins faded to 18th place at the Nuttycombe Invitational. But anyone who sat down and looked at the final results in-depth could clearly see that this team was actually fantastic.
Remember, the team's top runner, Bethany Graham, didn't even toe the line for that race! If she was in that field and had placed 40th overall, then Furman would have finished 7th in that field. In fact, even if Graham had placed 100th overall, then the Paladins would have still snagged an 11th place finish and, in turn, the narrative surrounding this group would have changed quite a bit.
All things considered, the Nuttycombe Invitational was mostly a success. And after cruising through their conference meet and their regional meet, the Paladins aimed to end their season on a high note.
That, however, didn't quite happen.
Wilkes (80th) wrapped up a cross country campaign that, in retrospect, was far better than we gave her credit for at the time. During a season where her team badly needed firepower with Bethany Graham out of commission, Wilkes stepped up clutch. Sure, she wasn't an All-American star, but she at least mitigated the damage that Graham's absence could have had.
It's a similar story for Kaylie Armitage (97th) who was so steady and solid. She was incredibly reliable as a secondary scorer last fall. And even though she didn't emerge as a low-stick ace, Armitage was still a valuable name who brought stability to her team.
After a few shaky regular seasons efforts, Jenna Mulhern (132nd) ended her season with a somewhat decent national meet finish. Even so, the Paladins' final two scorers settled for 153rd place and 178th place. And while those are far from catastrophic finishes, Furman was going to need a MUCH tighter pack given their limited firepower.
In the end, the women of Greenville, South Carolina wrapped up their 2023 fall campaign with a 24th place finish on the national stage.
* * *
If you're a fan of the Paladins, then I have very good news for you. And if you're an opposing team in the Southern Conference and/or the Southeast region, then I have some (very) bad news for you.
Furman is expected to return six of their top-seven runners from last year's national meet lineup.
Their lone departure is Abigail Robertson who didn't even score for her team during last year's season finale. Although, in fairness to Robertson, she was quietly great last fall, placing 82nd at the Nuttycombe Invitational and winning the Southern Conference individual title.
Not having Robertson shouldn't be brushed aside as inconsequential. She was a key scorer for this group up until the national meet. She provided a ton of stable scoring and it's no guarantee that a returning support piece will simply be able to step into Robertson's prior role.
And yet, with everyone else set to return, the natural growth of this team should lead to even greater results in 2024...right?
Truthfully, this team's ceiling will almost certainly be dictated by what kind of shape Bethany Graham is in. She has been an absolutely brilliant low-stick for this program over the last few years and she has also been a two-time All-American on the grass.
Unfortunately, Graham has been battling injuries in recent seasons. She didn't race at all during the spring of 2023, she was absent for most of last fall, she didn't race at all during the winter months and her most recent spring campaign was, well...not encouraging.
We have no idea what version of Bethany Graham were going to see this fall. A lot of progress can be made between early May and mid-October, but that doesn't necessarily guarantee anything. And even if she's not in All-American form this fall, that may not matter. If Graham can simply emerge as a scorer in the same way that Abigail Robertson was in 2023, then the Paladins seemingly go back to having a mostly-complete cross country lineup.
But if Graham does rediscover her peak level of fitness? Well, if that happens and the rest of the team stays healthy, then the Paladins are almost certainly going to be better than what this ranking would suggest.
Carly Wilkes is likely going to be the team's other lead scoring talent just like she was in the fall of 2023. And if she takes another step up in her fitness like she did last fall, then it will be firepower -- not depth -- that acts as the identity of this team in 2024.
Wilkes was super reliable and steady last year, placing 6th at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational, 37th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 80th at the national meet. Sure, none of those performances leave your jaw on the floor, but they're all very strong efforts that provide great scoring value.
The rise of Wilkes as a lead scorer makes her a great complement to Graham should the latter get back up to full speed. And together, the best version of those two women makes for a very underrated 1-2 punch.
* * *
You could argue that Kaylie Armitage is closer to the tier of fitness that Wilkes resides in rather than the next-best tier below her. In fact, in many of Furman's biggest challenges last fall, Armitage wasn't far behind her teammate, placing 7th at the Loyola Lakefront Invitational, 71st at the Nuttycombe Invitational and 97th on the national stage.
On a handful of other teams in the backend of these rankings, Armitage would have a shot to be a lead scorer going into the fall of 2024. She was exceptionally steady on big-time stages and her scoring value was not far off from Wilkes.
Unfortunately, Armitage didn't race this past spring after minimal racing during the winter which isn't super encouraging.
However, the rest of this lineup is where the projections become a bit more muddied. That's not to suggest that there aren't good options for the rest of this team's top-seven, but trying to figure out which women will go in which spots and how good they'll be is far less clear than it seemingly is for Graham, Wilkes and Armitage.
Take, for instance, Jenna Mulhern. The Pennsylvania native was expected to be a major contributor to this team going into last fall. However, the Furman runner didn't emerge as a scorer until the postseason. And when she did crack the team's top-five, she took 132nd place at the NCAA XC Championships.
Mulhern's 2023 end-of-season result was fine, maybe even respectable, but it didn't reflect the aerobic strength and the potential that we believe she has. It also doesn't help that her recent efforts on the track have been borderline non-existent.
We're confident that this West Chester Henderson product is going to be a top-five scorer for this team in 2024. We're also confident that she at least has enough talent to reach the level that both Wilkes and Armitage are at. That, however, is something that we still need to see happen before we can move up Furman any higher in these rankings.
Nicole Matysik, a long-time veteran of this program, has been slowly chipping away at her personal bests. The jumps in her fitness haven't necessarily been massive, but she has become a little bit better with each passing season.
We're not quite sure if Matysik will even emerge as a scorer this fall. But if she needs to step into a scoring role should someone have an "off" day, then she'll be a respectable option who can potentially limit a truly catastrophic day from happening.
However, the one support piece who needs to be on your radar is Sierra Bower, a long distance talent who made great strides on the track this past spring. With a new 5k PR of 16:03, plenty of experience and a prior 84th place finish at the Nuttycombe Invite, Bower has tons of sneaky-good scoring value.
Bower's consistency has admittedly been up and down in recent seasons, although her talent is undeniably promising. There's a very realistic scenario where she emerges as the team's focal scorer this fall, especially if Graham is still rebuild her fitness.
As for everyone else, there is a nice contingent of developmental pieces and incoming youngsters who have shown promise.
Emma Jones, Meghan Marvin and Camryn Wennersten are solid names who have built up good experience. The former has national meet experience while the latter two have proven to be fairly solid milers, especially Marvin. Sure, cross country hasn't exactly been Marvin's forte throughout her competitive career, but one has to believe that a 4:37 miler can at least provide some valuable depth on the grass.
Let's also not forget about Madelynne Cadeau who has run 16:11 for 5000 meters. Truthfully, that mark came in the spring of 2021, but a recent 16:16 mark this past winter signals promise and a return to form.
There is a very large group of incoming distance talents who have some great potential. Frankly, it would surprise us if none of these women became top-seven varsity names for the Paladins later this fall.
Australian Nysa Males has run 4:25 for 1500 meters. Rory Sullivan is the Rhode Island cross country state champion who qualified for NXN as an individual. Katie Sobieraj is a Massachusetts native who also qualified for NXN as an individual last fall.
Those are just a small handful of the newcomers joining this program in 2024.
* * *
Trying to find an appropriate middle ground for Furman in our rankings was a tough challenge, mainly because there is a pro for every con (and vice versa).
The Paladins struggled at least year's national meet, but they didn't have Bethany Graham for that race. Yes, Bethany Graham has raced sparingly and has been battling injuries, but she was competing once again this past spring and will have had five to six month to get back near top form.
Losing a key name in Abigail Robertson stings a bit, but Jenna Mulhern and/or Sierra Bower feel like great options to replace her scoring. We'll admit that there are questions about the backend stability of this lineup, but there's also a realistic possibility that Furman has three lead scorers this fall.
Regardless, if everything comes together, then this is a scary group that could pull off some upsets. Many of their women seemingly race extremely well next to each other and the overall development in the fitness of these runners was obvious throughout last fall.
And if that trend continues in 2024, then the Paladins are not a team that I would want to toe the line next to come October and November.
