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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #19 Colorado Buffaloes
- Mike McKean
- Aug 14, 2024
- 11 min read
Written by Mike McKean, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Over the decades, we’ve seen the Colorado Buffaloes reload year-in and year-out.
Even when losing top veteran scorers, they seemed to always remain nationally competitive no matter who was toeing the line for them. Of course, this pseudo-phenomenon is known as the “Wetmore Factor” by most distance running fans.
But now, it's a completely new era in Boulder, Colorado.
Coach Mark Wetmore and Coach Heather Burroughs are both out. In comes a brand new and fast-rising distance coach in Sean Carlson. The cross country firepower that once headlined this program has since dissipated, but the introduction of new talent has reshaped our expectations from just a month ago. And the PAC-12? Well, that conference is (mostly) gone, leaving the Buffaloes returning to their former conference, the BIG 12.
In other words, everything that you once thought you knew about this Colorado program should be erased. Now, it's time for the next chapter of collegiate cross country to unfold in Boulder. And, of course, it will be the fall of 2024 that ultimately sparks which direction this program will head towards in the near future.
* * *
In their first legitimate meet of the 2023 cross country season, we saw the Buffaloes take to the Virginia Invitational, an early-season preview meet for the NCAA XC Championships.
While their performance may not have been indicative of their TSR #10 preseason ranking, the Buffaloes still had a respectable enough showing as they finished 12th overall as a team.
Austin Vancil led the way as a certified low-stick via a noteworthy 24th place finish. Another bright spot for the Buffs came in second man, Paul Stafford. His promising 39th place finish was huge for his team. However, Noah Hibbard (74th), James Overberg (76th) and Caleb Niednagel (106th), who each had serviceable efforts, didn't provide enough scoring value to allow the Buffaloes to stand out in any significant way.
Admittedly, a 12th place team finish for a top-10 preseason team wasn’t necessarily exciting. The firepower felt limited beyond Vancil (and maybe Stafford) and their scoring support had gaps which inflated the Buffaloes' scoring. However, the scoring structure of this group was very different at the next major test of the team's 2023 fall campaign.
At the Nuttycombe Invite, Colorado looked far stronger with an excellent 7th place team finish. This time around, we saw a new Buffalo step up in a massive way.
Freshman Isaiah Givens came out of nowhere to finish a shocking 24th place as the top runner for Colorado. And frankly, to say that his result was unexpected would be an understatement. Givens wasn’t even in scoring position for the Buffaloes at the Virginia Invitational as he finished in 117th place. Plus, he was still an inexperienced youngster!
Simply put, the odds were (supposed to be) stacked against him.
That, of course, was not the case. And as such, it seemed as though Colorado’s potential for the ensuing fall months had skyrocketed.
After Givens, Austin Vancil once again showed his reliability as an experienced leader, producing a strong 35th place finish. Sophomore James Overberg (79th) showed experience beyond his years as he delivered another consistent performance while Paul Stafford (88th) and Noah Hibbard (89th) capped off the scoring for the Buffalo men.
A mostly mistake-free day from Colorado’s top-five was very encouraging to see. And while it wasn't enough for us to view them as legitimate podium threats or anything of that nature, they did seemingly validate our preseason ranking. And of course, the rise of Isaiah Givens had us wondering how high this team’s ceiling actually was.
After a highly encouraging team performance at Nuttycombe, the Colorado men ventured into their conference meet weekend. And given the state of the PAC-12, many would have said that the Buffaloes were favored to win gold. Unfortunately, the high that the Buffaloes may have been riding from Madison quickly came to a screeching halt.
A disappointing 4th place finish from Colorado was discouraging enough, but being handily defeated by Stanford, Washington and Oregon was an added blow. Just two weeks prior in Wisconsin, the Colorado men wound up besting the likes of Stanford and Washington by 170+ points.
Clearly, the smaller PAC-12 field was not kind to the Buffaloes.
Despite their team struggles, Austin Vancil led his team with a respectable 8th place finish. Noah Hibbard was a lone bright spot as his 11th place finish was by far his best performance of the season. Paul Stafford (17th) was respectable, but Isaiah Givens’ 18th place result was not what we were expecting after his Nuttycombe showing. Jake Derouin (27th) wrapped up the team's top-five.
Following a disappointing result at the PAC-12 XC Championships, we looked to see how the Buffaloes would rebound after facing some adversity. Unfortunately, they left us with another uninspiring result at the Mountain Regional XC Championships as they finished in 6th place. And although out of an automatic qualifying position, Colorado had still done enough in the regular season to qualify for the national meet.
After two-straight sub-par performances, the Colorado men had left us uneasy about what their expectations for them should be heading into the NCAA XC Championships. While their recent postseason efforts were underwhelming, we struggled to forget about how strong they looked at the Nuttycombe Invite.
And yet, the latter meet didn't seem to matter.
In their return to Charlottesville, the Buffaloes struggled for the third-straight race.
Senior leader Austin Vancil was strong yet again via his 39th place finish, earning All-American honors. It was a fitting ending for "Mr. Reliable." However, after Vancil, we had to wait over a minute for the next Colorado runner to cross the finish line. Noah Hibbard (142nd), Paul Stafford (152nd), Isaiah Givens (164th) and James Overberg (178th) capped off the Buffaloes' scoring to result in a truthfully grim 25th place team finish.
A wildly inconsistent season was capped off with the worst team performance in the Wetmore reign, one that spanned almost 30 years. And oddly enough, the worst team performance in the Wetmore era would end up being the last one.
* * *
When we came into the 2023 cross country season, we expected to see more of the same from the Buffaloes. Unfortunately, the “Wetmore Factor” wasn’t much of a factor that time around. In fact, the team seemed like a shell of their former selves. And for Colorado, being a shell of their former selves took on an even deeper meaning this past offseason.
A bomb was dropped this past summer in Boulder, Colorado. Mark Wetmore, one of the greatest collegiate long distance coaches of the 21st century, was not returning to Colorado for the 2024 cross country season.
One of the most storied and dominant cross country programs of all-time was left directionless for the first time in decades.
That, in turn, led to the announcement of Coach Sean Carlson taking over at the helm, a move that, on paper, had the potential to bring some life back into this program. After developing a reputation for turning programs into national powers, Carlson will now aim to fill Wetmore’s massive shoes as he looks to revitalize the Buffaloes.
And while we don't know for sure how he'll fare in his newest coaching chapter, one thing is for certain -- he'll have his hands full.
That being said, Carlson has already gone ahead with making immediate patches and amends to his men's and women's cross country programs. With recent transfer additions from Knoxville and high school commitment flips from top recruits, the Buffaloes have added immediate firepower to their team as Carlson potentially repositions this squad on a path back to greatness.
Wetmore’s departure aside, the worst blow of all has to be the departure of Austin Vancil. He was, for all intents and purposes, the lone positive for Colorado this past season, especially during championship races. The accolades that Vancil collected are hard to replicate, but what’s even harder to lose the steadiness that he provided.
There are a number of men who could provide a low-stick scoring presence for the Buffaloes this fall, but few would have been nearly as reliable as Vancil was.
Colorado also seemingly lost a key team scorer in veteran Paul Stafford. That is another tough pill to swallow. Although his results weren’t always raising eyebrows, he was a consistent top-five scorer for the Buffaloes last fall. His performance at the Virginia Invitational also showed us how promising his ceiling was and his reliability as a scorer was quietly great.
We'll admit, losing two crucial scoring members from a lineup that was already underwhelming is hard to stomach. Vancil and Stafford were two vital pieces of Colorado's top-seven and they gave their team a true scoring identity throughout last fall.
Not only that, but Noah Hibbard, Caleb Niednagel and Jake Derouin are also gone! They are not listed on the team's 2024 cross country roster. Those are another series of challenging departures, especially Hibbard who flexed an 11th place finish at the PAC-12 XC Championships last fall. And while certain races of theirs were better than others, each of those men at least filled varsity roles that, truthfully, other members of this program likely weren't able to.
* * *
Thankfully, not all is lost in Boulder, Colorado. Although the team only returns two of their top-seven men from last year’s national meet, they also bring in a large handful of key transfers as well as bring back a redshirt freshman who was great on the track this past spring.
One returner who intrigues us more than most is Isaiah Givens, a rising redshirt sophomore.
The raw talent and upside is very clearly there for Givens. In fact, it was on full display at the Nuttycombe Invitational last fall with his brilliant 24th place low-stick performance! That result was by far the best of his young cross country career. A run like that at the second-most competitive meet of the year is first-class.
With another year under his belt, we’ll need to see more consistency from Givens. Becoming an increasingly more reliable lead talent is a must for a team that just lost a ton of scoring stability and steadiness. And we won't lie, that's a big ask for someone who has only had one collegiate cross country season under his legs.
Givens holds great potential which was made even more evident after an impressive redshirt freshman campaign on the outdoor oval. The young Buffalo ace will look to build off of the momentum that he gained from his 3:40 (1500) personal best. And don't forget, this is a guy who ran 3:55 in the mile during the 2023 indoor track season.
James Overberg is a name that has a ton of upside. During his 2023 outdoor track campaign, we saw him post noteworthy personal bests of 13:49 (5k) and 28:38 (10k). Those are very strong marks that, in some cases, suggest that Overberg could be a lead scorer for a nationally ranked team!
Admittedly, it seems that Overberg is still chasing that success that he once had on the oval. If Carlson can help Overberg translate that success to the grass, then he’s in a great spot to be a valuable scorer for the Buffaloes. Of course, we still need to see that happen before we can rely on the Colorado talent to be an impact scoring member of this team.
However, the one name who some may forget about is Kole Mathison. The former high school superstar won the 2022 Champs Sports XC National Championships national title (formerly called and now once again called Foot Locker) and was a stud over the longer distances. He didn't race last fall, but he did compete in the steeplechase this past spring. In that event, Mathison qualified for the outdoor national meet and ran 8:47 over the barriers and water pits.
Mathison is a massive name who should/could give this team some legitimate firepower. While he is still unproven on the grass at the collegiate level, his pedigree is outstanding. He has already shown tremendous promise on the oval and his youth should only lead to even greater growth.
At the end of the day, there may not be a runner on this team who is more important than Mathison.
* * *
Now, those are all solid returners, but you may be asking yourselves, how does just three men make up a scoring contingent that is worthy of our TSR #19 preseason ranking? But rest assured, Sean Carlson isn’t coming to Boulder empty-handed.
With Carlson comes added firepower from Knoxville, Tennessee. New additions such as Dean Casey, Simon Kelati and Chris Cherry will easily slot into key scoring positions for the Buffaloes.
After news of Carlson venturing to Colorado broke, Simon Kelati somewhat quickly flipped his commitment from Tennessee to Colorado after the news of Carlson’s transition. The NCAA D2 champion over 3000 meters is now set to spend his graduate transfer year in Boulder.
The D2 ace from Western Colorado holds numerous accolades. Most notably, a runner-up finish at the 2023 NCAA D2 XC Championships, an indoor 3k national title and multiple D2 All-American honors. He also boasts a 13:34 (5k) personal best.
Kelati is a seasoned veteran who’s no stranger to success. In theory, his transition to D1 collegiate racing should prove to be a seamless one. He holds fringe low-stick potential, has clearly made a leap upwards in his fitness over the last year and, at the very least, can be an impactful middle lineup scorer who gives this team the stability that they lacked in 2023.
And yet, perhaps the most likely candidate to become Colorado’s newest low-stick is Irishman, Dean Casey. The former Volunteer comes to Boulder with high expectations as he enters his sophomore year. His pedigree, proven aerobic talent and promising rookie campaign suggests that he still has more to offer.
As a freshman at Tennessee, Casey showed us just how talented he was with an excellent 8th place finish at Pre-Nationals. After earning All-Conference honors at the SEC XC Championships with his 11th place result, he had a somewhat tough showing at the NCAA XC Championships (151st).
Of course, an “off” day in Charlottesville won’t fool us -- the potential is very much there with Casey. After his 28:39 (10k) personal best on the oval this past spring, we’re eager to see what Casey can do with another year of experience under his belt. His familiarity with Carlson’s training will be incredibly valuable as he adjusts to life in Boulder and his natural growth given his youth should only help in his rise.
Chris Cherry provides additional value for the Buffaloes. While his 2023 cross country season was a pretty quiet one, he made some decent noise on the oval. Cherry is also coming off of a spring campaign that brought marks of 13:55 (5k) and 3:41 (1500). He also possesses a solid 29:24 (10k) PR.
Those times are certainly much more indicative of his potential on the grass. He’ll get his shot to show us this fall as he dons the black and gold of Colorado. And at the very least, he'll be a nice depth piece who can offer valuable backend scoring stabilization while guys like Mathison, Givens, Casey and Kelati attack the bulk of the scoring impact for this squad.
Of course, if we’re discussing big-time additions for the Buffaloes, then we can’t fail to mention the high school commits who Coach Sean Carlson has flipped to Colorado. A recruiting savant in his own right, Carlson has managed to bring in two high school studs who are capable of making an impact right away.
Jake Liebert and Ethan Edgeworth join the group with jaw-dropping accolades. The former possesses times of 8:57 (two-mile) and 14:06 (5k XC) which pair well with an admirable 11th place finish at the 2023 Foot Locker XC Championships. The latter owns head-turning times of 4:02 (mile), 8:38 (3200) and 14:34 (5k XC).
* * *
We’ll admit, the bulk of this team's success and scoring will be placed on the shoulder of the team's newest additions. It’s also unclear if Colorado’s returners from last fall’s 25th place team can make another jump under Carlson and as of right now, there's no guarantee that this group will have an individual All-American in November.
Naturally, you can see why we opted to place this group at TSR #19.
Here’s what we do know, though: Sean Carlson’s reputation proceeds him. He’s known to inject life into programs that were, quite frankly, lifeless in terms of being nationally competitive. And while Colorado wasn't in nearly as poor of a position as the Notre Dame men or Tennessee men once were, they still needed a new spark.
And this offseason, they seemingly got one.
We’ve become so used to a team like Colorado achieving success. Now, almost 30 years later, there’s a new sheriff in Boulder. Can the Buffaloes get back to the standard that we’ve been so accustomed to seeing?
I guess we're about to find out...
