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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): #18 Portland Pilots
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 15, 2024
- 9 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
We don't usually like to make excuses for teams, but...Portland is an exception.
Over the last two years, the Pilots have been hit with old fashioned bad luck. Last fall, in particular, was a challenging season as illnesses and injuries plagued this group.
But we're now preparing for a new cross country season and with a new season comes an entirely clean slate of expectations for the Portland men. Coach Rob Conner has been a masterful curator of depth on the grass and his teams almost always peak perfectly for the regional meet (something that we saw yet again last fall).
And, as always, this group has no shortage of lineup options.
Once again, the depth of this team looks outstanding. Sure, they'll need to better throughout entirety of the fall months compared to last year, but that's more than reasonable to ask given the reinforcements on this team.
* * *
The first notable meet of Portland's 2023 cross country season was the Griak Invitational. And going into that race, we expected this group to be favored for the win, even with teams like California Baptist, Gonzaga and New Mexico also in the field.
That, however, didn't happen.
In fact, Portland wasn't even close to winning.
The Pilots struggled mightily during their time in Minnesota. Daniel Abdala, Jona Bodirsky and Matt Strangio had fine outings, going 12-13-14, respectively, in the final results. And while we certainly expected that group to offer more potent up-front scoring, the real issue stemmed from the fact that Portland didn't have anyone else crack the top-30.
In the end, that led to this west coast stalwart dropping to a disappointing 4th place. It was hardly an ideal start to their season.
The Nuttycombe Invitational, however, had the chance to be far better. The Pilots were set to bring back a complete lineup with their best names and their scoring was likely going to be more impactful in a larger field than it was a smaller field.
Or so we thought.
Daniel Abdala and Jona Bodirsky did crack the top-100 during their time in Madison, Wisconsin, but only barely. The former took 95th place while the latter settled for 99th place. From there, Jonas Gertsen finished in 131st place while Thomas Chaston secured 163rd. Nate Lantz would close out the team's scoring in 180th place.
Matt Strangio (188th) would unfortunately fall out of scoring, Estanis Ruiz did not race (or least, was listed as an unattached DNF) and we didn't see Tristan Peloquin, either.
The final result? A truthfully grim 30th place team finish.
To be blunt, things weren't looking good for the Pilots going into the postseason. They lacked firepower, there were numerous gaps throughout their top-five, key names remained absent and they simply weren't competitive with the top teams in the country. None of that got any easier at the West Coast Conference XC Championships when the Pilots fell to Gonzaga by 11 points for the title.
Going into the West Regional XC Championships, not many were picking the Portland men to qualify for the national meet. Their entire fall campaign had looked like a wash at that point. Of course, the regional stage is where Coach Rob Conner and the Portland men are at their absolute best -- and that showed last fall.
At the West Regional XC Championships, the Pilots came through with an exceptionally clutch performance. Strangio, who showed tons of promise after winning the WCC title earlier that month, earned a massive 2nd place finish. Meanwhile, Abdala (18th) and Bodirsky (20th) put together very stable scoring efforts of their own! You could maybe argue the same thing about Jonas Gertsen (33rd).
Admittedly, Portland's fifth and final scorer dropped to 53rd place. That wasn't ideal, but the Pilots were still able to muster up a total of 125 points. The only catch? The California Baptist men also scored 125 points. This meant that the two teams had tied. And after winning the tie-breaker, Portland took 3rd place in front of CBU.
That tie-breaking result turned out to be the deciding factor in whether or not the Pilots were going to qualify for the national meet. The below graphic should best explain what happened...
With the Portland men shockingly advancing to the national meet, it felt like new life and new momentum had been pumped into the Pilots' lineup.
Admittedly, that newfound momentum only yielded a 23rd place team finish at the NCAA XC Championships. Matt Strangio (76th) rallied fairly well to post a decent lead scoring result while Abdala (117th) and Bodirsky (124th) were respectable enough. The same could be said about Gertsen (144th).
However, with the team's fifth man dropping to 186th place, the Pilots simply had too many backend lineup gaps to overcome, therefore settling for a spot outside of our top-20.
* * *
We'll admit, writing about Portland each year in these preseason rankings is exhausting. Part of that is because their up-and-down performances over the last couple of years are clearly not proper indications of how strong this group actually is.
As such, it is our job to prove to you why they deserve to be in our top-25.
But the other reason why it is so challenging to evaluate this team is because of the massive number of viable lineup options that they have spread throughout their roster. On an annual basis, it feels like the Pilots have some of the most overwhelming depth that the NCAA can possibly offer.
Before we dive into the bulk of this roster, let's quickly highlight who they are losing.
While the Pilots are seeing a handful of men exit their program, the only name who truly stands out as a lost impact scorer is Daniel Abdala. His rise throughout last fall was quietly very strong. He was one of the few constants that this group had, offering metronomic middle-lineup consistency while holding his own in a variety of fields.
Sure, Abdala wasn't going to be a low-stick ace for this team, but his value as a scorer should not be overlooked. For a group that had a lot of shakiness last year, his lineup presence will be missed.
Teddy Buckley and Thomas Chaston are gone, but the backend of this lineup was likely going to look fairly different anyway.
When it comes to focal scoring, there are three men who we feel that we need to discuss.
Let's first start with the most obvious name: Matt Strangio.
The long-time veteran from California has been the main guy to watch on this team for a while now. And more importantly, he had a monster breakout season on the indoor oval this past winter, dropping huge times of 3:55 (mile) and 7:39 (3k). As far as experience, raw talent and pedigree are concerned, Strangio is a great name to have as your lead low-stick.
However, the grass hasn't always been as kind to Strangio as the track has. While he has certainly had exciting moments throughout his career, it has felt a bit surprising that someone such as himself has yet to obtain an All-American honor.
But after placing 76th place at last year's NCAA XC Championships despite battling illness last fall, there is good reason to believe that this guy will be in the hunt for a top-40 finish come the national meet in November.
At the very least, the Pilots have a star-caliber name and we know that his ceiling most likely extends beyond what he has already shown -- and that's fairly rare for someone as seasoned as Strangio.
The other key returning veteran on this roster is Bradley Peloquin. A former high school standout who thrived over the longer distances just like his brother Tristan, Peloquin's skillset has theoretically made him a perfect match for an aerobic-centric program like Portland.
On paper, Peloquin is a name who has the potential to be just as impactful as Strangio this fall. He has run 13:45 for 5000 meters and placed 43rd at the Nuttycombe Invitational. The problem? Those performances came in 2022, not 2023 or 2024.
Peloquin was seemingly redshirted last fall and his most recent outdoor track campaign was highlighted by four 5k efforts, none of which dipped under 13:50.
To put it simply, this Portland veteran is a major wild card. He has always been someone who has been better on the grass than the track, so that is certainly encouraging, but his recent fitness hasn't exactly been awe-inspiring and he didn't run on the grass last fall.
In other words, your projections about what he could do this fall are as good as ours.
The third name who we should aim to highlight is Estanis Ruiz. The former Loyola Marymount runner had a huge breakout season in the steeplechase during the spring of 2022. Shortly thereafter, he transferred to Portland where he was a non-factor on the grass. He didn't race last fall, but his latest spring campaign was very encouraging.
After becoming a 6th place All-American in the steeplechase back in June, Ruiz ventured to Spain where he ran a head-turning PR of 8:21 over the barriers and water pits.
Truthfully, we have essentially zero evidence which directly suggests that Ruiz can be a focal scorer for a nationally competitive cross country team on the grass. In fact, his cross country resume is almost non-existent.
And yet, it's going to be very hard to convince anyone that someone with an 8:21 PR in the steeplechase won't translate their fitness (to some extent) to the grass.
If Ruiz is able to carry the momentum of his brilliant spring/summer efforts over to October and November, then that is huge. Doing so will give this team a massive scoring spark that they simply lacked last year. And if Strangio is firing on all cylinders, then a once depth-heavy roster may begin to look a bit top-heavy.
* * *
Trying to go through each and every one of these men who could be lineup contributors to Portland would leave me sitting behind this keyboard typing all day. In fact, the options are so plentiful that there is a good chance we may not mention one or two names who may end up as scorers this fall.
However, two men who we feel very good about are Jonas Gertsen and Jona Bodirsky. Those two veterans, when they're at their best, can be extremely important scorers. If these two guys are going to be the ones who close out the Pilots' top-five in 2024, then this preseason ranking should be plenty valid.
Bodirsky, for instance, was 13th at the Griak Invitational, 99th at the Nuttycombe Invite and 124th at the NCAA XC Championships. Gertsen, meanwhile, struggled a bit throughout last fall and his 2022 fall campaign was abbreviated. However, he was also someone who has excellent in the fall of 2021, placing 64th at the NCAA XC Championships and 79th at the Nuttycombe Invitational.
The best version of both Bodirsky and Gersten make this team better than where we have them listed in our rankings (assuming that the other men deliver on their potential as well). Gertsen, specifically, is someone who could swing Portland's spot in our rankings five spots in either direction.
Speaking of crucial stabilizing scorers, the Portland men have also added Jonathan Carmin to their team via the transfer portal. The former New Mexico talent was the man who was theoretically supposed to bridge the gap between the Lobos' lethal top-three and the rest of the team.
That, however, is not something that we saw at either the Griak Invitational or the Nuttycombe Invite last fall. But at the Mountain West XC Championships, Carmin arguably had the race of his life, placing 8th overall. That was enough to give New Mexico a huge conference title victory over Air Force.
We'll admit, Carmin's consistency leaves more to be desired. And yet, we've seen how effective he can be when he's firing on all cylinders. If he can replicate his performance from the Mountain West XC Championships on a more consistent basis, then that will be huge for Portland.
Of course, we just need to see him do that first.
Kgadi Monyebodi, Nolan Hosbein, Cameron Stein, Alex Baca and Ahmed Sado are all similar-level talents (depending on who you ask), although their backgrounds are fairly different and their upside is most certainly not the same. We would suspect that you'll see these five men in some capacity this fall, although their impact could range anywhere from being the third-best scorer on this team to not inside the team's top-seven by season's end.
* * *
Few teams in our preseason cross country rankings hold more upside and downside than the Portland men. There are so many uncertainties about what certain men may or may not be able to provide from a scoring standpoint, making this already-hard-to-gauge distance program even more challenging to analyze.
Matt Strangio, Bradley Peloquin, Estanis Ruiz, Jonas Gertsen and Jonathan Carmin all have fairly substantial question marks next to their names (albeit, for varying reasons). If each of those men deliver on their potential, then the Pilots could be flirting with the top-10 portion of our rankings. But if each of those men fall short of our baseline expectations, then I'm not even sure if this team cracks our rankings.
We don't always know what we're going to get out of Portland -- their roster options are so plentiful that it feels like we could draw out of a hat to craft their top-seven. And yet, what we do know is that few coaches in the NCAA are more reliable and proven in the postseason than Rob Conner is.
And if you couldn't keep Portland out of the national meet last year, then you're most certainly not going to keep them out of the national meet anytime soon.
