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TSR's 2024 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #17 Stanford Cardinal
- Gavin Struve
- Aug 16, 2024
- 11 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On certain occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Change is abound for the Stanford men entering the 2024-2025 academic year.
For one, conference realignment has uprooted them from their longtime home in the PAC-12 and essentially moved them across the country to an east coast conference that's just as deep with quality cross country teams.
They'll also be confronting a harsh new reality which no longer features long-time superstar (and 12-time All-American), Ky Robinson.
Believe it or not, the Cardinal don't have any men ranked/listed among our top-50 individuals or even in our "Just Missed" or "Honorable Mention" sections, which encompass 20 additional individuals.
A couple of years ago, the Stanford men would have come into the ACC as the league's title favorites and likely would have tipped the scales to their new conference becoming the best in the country. But now, even as the top-heaviness of the BIG 12 has surpassed the ACC (the latter of which is currently full of good men's squads, but holds few truly great ones), Stanford isn't going into this fall favored to win the team title of their new conference.
Of course, it's not all doom and gloom in Palo Alto, California.
Yes, the Cardinal face a lot of unknowns, but they will be doing so with a solid foundation given that they return their second, third and fourth scorers (and five of their top-seven) from a team that finished in the top-10 at last year's national meet. They could also backfill nicely with a handful of star freshmen.
* * *
The men of Stanford entered the fall of 2023 with lofty expectations, sitting as our TSR #4 team at this time last year.
However, almost immediately, we realized that we may need to readjust our preseason predictions. With a young lineup, the Cardinal struggled in their season opener on the national meet course at the Virginia Invitational.
On that stage, Ky Robinson lost only to Drew Bosley and Parker Wolfe, giving Stanford an above-adequate leading man. But from there, their scoring fell apart in a significant way.
Finishing 46th was hardly a bad result for Leo Young in his first collegiate race, but we had (probably unfairly) higher expectations for his twin, Lex Young, (given that he was initially ranked at TSR #41) than a 75th-place result.
Of course, freshmen were hardly to blame for the team's greater disappointment. Cole Sprout, a four-time All-American who has dealt with injuries on and off, finished in 62nd place. Then-sophomore Zane Bergen closed out the scoring in 90th place. However, a more experienced teammate like Evan Burke or Robert DiDonato probably should have occupied that final scoring position rather than dropping out of the top-115.
Beyond Robinson's reliability and modest success from Leo Young, just about everything went wrong for the Cardinal in their 2023 cross country debut. As a result, they faded to 9th in the team standings.
Stanford's challenging 2023 schedule continued a few weeks later with the Nuttycombe Invite. Unfortunately, they didn't fare much better there, dropping to 20th place in what was probably an even more concerning effort for their postseason prospects.
Robinson was excellent as expected, placing 4th, but he again received marginal support. Sprout was the second scorer as one would have expected entering the season, but he was way back in 84th place.
Lex Young fared better in his second race than his first, finishing in 86th place, but another gap formed from there to Evan Burke (who was 120th for a second consecutive race) and final scorer Liam Anderson who was all the way back in 206th place.
To put it simply, we didn't feel confident that Stanford, a historical powerhouse, was a top-20 team in the country at that point in the season.
Fortunately, the Cardinal men flipped the switch for the postseason. In fact, one could argue that they ran well for over half of the season because of how they performed in their final three races (although it's hard to shake the feeling that they could have been even better).
We unfortunately didn't see a vintage PAC-12 in the conference's final season, but there were still several competitive teams for the Cardinal to take on between longtime rivals Washington, Oregon and Colorado (all of whom will sadly be competing in different conferences than the Cardinal this year).
Robinson won the conference title and Sprout finally looked like himself again, placing 4th. Their teammates were able to close out the scoring quickly enough from there as DiDonato placed 9th in one of his better performances as a collegian. Lex Young finished 12th and Burke gave his squad five in the top-15 for the PAC-12 team title.
It was absolutely imperative that none of those men had a bad day, as Stanford's sixth runner at the PAC-12 XC Championships finished in 40th place. Nonetheless, the Cardinal managed to defend their conference title, winning the PAC-12 crown for the fourth time in six years.
Stanford finally started to run like they were the favorites in the postseason, keeping the winning streak going with a West Regional XC Championships title. Robinson and Sprout finished 1st and 4th, respectively, once again. Meanwhile, DiDonato moved up to 7th place, seemingly peaking at the perfect time. Leo Young reintroduced himself into the scoring lineup, placing 26th, and Burke held his role as a serviceable fifth scorer by finishing 35th.
This time, Stanford could have gotten by with one of their backend scorers having an "off" day as Lex Young was waiting in 42nd place. Northern California's preeminent distance program kept its momentum running through the end of the season with a 2023 NCAA XC Championships result that felt closer to its preseason potential than its regular season efforts at large meets.
Robinson was dependable as ever, earning individual bronze, while DiDonato continued his precise postseason progression to place 49th. Lex Young continued a solid freshman campaign by finishing 74th. Sprout likely hoped to be better, but he salvaged a top-100 result as the fourth scorer and Burke closed it out roughly where we expected him to be in 129th.
That all added up to an 8th-place effort on the national stage, marking Stanford's 10th consecutive top-10 finish at the NCAA XC Championships. The Cardinal had an elite front-runner, solid middle-lineup scoring and good enough backend support to minimize excess scoring.
And all things considered, it felt like Stanford had salvaged a season that looked very ugly before championship season began.
* * *
Ky Robinson was the only true low-stick on this squad last year and he has since turned pro. To put it simply, his departure is crushing.
The amount of scoring value that Robinson carried throughout last fall was arguably more than any other low-stick on any team that finished in the top-10 at the national meet. And if the Cardinal were already struggling at meets like the Virginia Invite and the Nuttycombe Invite with Robinson, then how will the Cardinal fare now that he's gone entirely?
Fortunately, just because Stanford doesn't have any proven lead scorers doesn't mean that they don't have a cupboard stocked with star candidates.
Cole Sprout, who is now a fifth-year senior, has already achieved star status. However, he has placed outside of the top-80 at the past three cross country national meets. One might wonder for all his talent, at what point is that his new reality?
Even as he struggled at the national level, however, he has thrived on the conference stage, placing in the top-eight in each of his four PAC-12 XC Championships appearances.
If Sprout -- who holds gaudy credentials of 3:56 (mile), 7:43 (3k), 13:24 (5k) and 27:42 (10k) -- can regain his footing after not racing since late February, then there's reason to think that he could be a top-10 name in the ACC. After all, he holds one of the fastest 10,000-meter track PRs in the NCAA.
It feels like it's only a matter of time before Lex Young and Leo Young fulfill their potential as singular talents at the NCAA level. You've heard of their older brother, right?
Lex's 13:34 (5k) PR from his senior year of high school gave us the impression that he would make an immediate impact on the collegiate scene. While he wasn't a top-50 talent as we projected, he was invaluable for Stanford from his second race forward.
He was really solid in the postseason with those aforementioned finishes of 12th at the PAC-12 XC Championships and 74th at the NCAA XC Championships. Lex Young was relatively quiet on the track, but an All-American breakthrough would hardly shock us.
Leo Young was better last fall than his 185th-place result at the national meet suggested, but he came in as the more middle distance-inclined of the twins (with a 3:39 metric mile PR). He seemingly improved his aerobic strength with marks of 7:54 (3k) and 13:46 (5k) earlier this year. If he can be a top-80, or even top-100 name, on the national stage in a few months, then that would be a boon for Stanford.
DiDonato was Stanford's second scorer at the national meet last year and was excellent throughout the postseason in placing top-10 at the PAC-12 XC Championships and top-50 at the NCAA XC Championships. Not a bad effort for his first cross country national meet.
Still, after a lackluster couple of track seasons earlier this year, it's hard to envision DiDonato as Stanford's top runner this fall despite being their top returner from the national meet. A slow start to 2024, and poor efforts at the Virginia Invitational and Nuttycombe last fall, are why DiDonato is not ranked in our preseason top-50.
If nothing else, the rising senior should be a key middle-lineup scorer with All-American upside if everything lines up.
Thomas Boyden was in a similar position to DiDonato entering last fall before seemingly redshirting. He placed 75th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships and 7th at the 2022 PAC-12 XC Championships.
Boyden isn't lacking for talent. He holds strong PRs of 3:57 (mile), 13:37 (5k) and 28:44 (10k), although the latter two marks are from 2022 and he contested the middle distance events on the track in 2024. Alongside DiDonato and Sprout, it's conceivable that he could help comprise a veteran-laden scoring structure.
The aforementioned Zane Bergen was a high-octane recruit who has been better over the middle distances as a collegian -- as can be attested to by 1:50 (800), 3:43 (1500) and 8:04 (3k) chops -- but he ran on Stanford's varsity squad last fall.
A pair of 4th-place finishes at two different cross country national meets as a high schooler in 2021 feel like they dispel the notion that Bergen can't move up to the longer distances, but the 10k is a different beast.
* * *
Even if Bergen and Boyden join Sprout, the Young twins and DiDonato in the top-seven, the Cardinal will need to fill another varsity spot. And it feels more likely than not that two spots will be up for grabs. One or two of Stanford's star freshmen could move into those positions.
Let's start our examination of one of the nation's best incoming groups with James Dargan, a rookie from England with 3:44 (1500), 8:04 (3k) and 14:03 (5k) chops. He already faced high-level competition on the grass when he finished 47th (in the middle of the field) at the 2024 U20 World XC Championships this past March, running 25:25 for 8k.
Dargan seems to hold a high ceiling and a relatively high floor already, but perhaps one of his similarly talented American classmates will make an even faster assimilation to racing stateside.
Paul Bergeron (our TSR #15 recruit) has already run 8:04 (3k) converted from an 8:39 (two-mile) effort and 14:14 (5k) at the Brooks PR Invitational and New Balance Indoor Nationals, respectively, earlier this year. A top-10 finish at the 2023 Foot Locker XC Championships suggests that he could be a quick contributor on the grass.
Patrick Koon holds even more eye-popping track times for a prep star, having run 8:01 (3k) on his way to an 8:31 (3200). He has also run 13:59 (5k) and was just a handful of spots behind Bergeron at the 2023 Foot Locker XC Championships (finishing 15th) after an undefeated season.
Then there's Byron Grevious who adds to the embarrassment of riches with 1:52 (800), 8:10 (3k) and 14:04 (5k) incoming marks. He placed 11th at Nike Cross Nationals (NXN) in 2023 and 12th at NXN in 2022.
Josh Bell is the lone in-state incoming talent, and he is essentially as impressive, having run 8:42 (3200) and placing 9th at NXN in 2023 and top-20 at the 2022 Champs Sports National XC Championships.
We shouldn't forget about Stanford's contingent of second-year, third-year and fourth-year talents, all of whom were high school stars in their own right. Milo Skapinsky found fast success as a freshman last year after being a less heralded newcomer than the Young brothers. He ran 7:56 (3k) and 14:07 (5k) on the track.
Caleb Boutelle, a junior, holds similar chops -- 8:03 (3k) and 14:03 (5k) -- but didn't race on the grass last year.
Would you believe us if we told you that Stanford has twins in their sophomore, junior and senior classes? Callum Sherry and Gavin Sherry were talented Connecticut kids from the Class of 2022. And while the latter had higher billing before venturing to Palo Alto, it's the former who has found more success on the collegiate scene (at least over the longer distances) with decent marks of 8:09 and 14:07 over 3k and 5k, respectively.
Then there's Nolan Topper and Galen Topper. The former has run 13:54 (5k) and 28:44 (10k) and was decent in the fall of 2022. The latter holds a 14:01 (5k) PR, but is less accomplished on the grass.
Might one or two of these more seasoned men finally fulfill their full potential and make this an upperclassman-heavy varsity group (plus the Young brothers)?
* * *
This roster, even devoid of a proven cross country star, is a veritable "who's who" of recent blue-chip recruits. The Cardinal could field a "B" team that would be competitive in most conferences, but they'd likely trade a glut of backend contributor candidates for a couple of proven lead scorers and/or middle lineup pieces.
They may have that in this year's incoming crop. Stanford went across the country for their 2024 talents, perhaps in anticipation of their move to the Atlantic Coast Conference. Bergeron is from Massachusetts while Koon and Grevious hail from Florida and Connecticut, respectively.
With Bell as well, the Cardinal hold three of our top-20 recruits with another in the top-40.
Each of those newcomers has been elite on both the track and the grass entering the NCAA, but it feels like it may be too early for any of them to emerge as dependable collegiate stars.
This was not a top-10 team for most of last season. Now, they've lost its one true superstar talent. In fact, you take Robinson out of last year's national meet results, then the Cardinal land at, you guessed it, 17th place at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships.
And remember, the national meet was very clearly their best team performance of last fall -- Stanford had struggled quite a bit before then.
Will a new leading man emerge this fall for Stanford? Could Cole Sprout regain the form he displayed earlier in his career? Are one of the Young twins due to a sizable leap? Or will each of those young men collectively improve enough to soften the loss of Robinson?
Could it also be that this year be a continuation of a gradual slide after the Cardinal finally got back to the podium in 2022 (for the first time since 2017)? Does that mean Stanford will fall out of the top-10 at a cross country national meet for the first time since 2013?
This ranking suggests we suspect that may be the case.
Talent-wise, Coach Ricardo Santos' team is almost certainly one of the 10 best casts in the country, but we need to see proven low-sticks and/or lead scorers emerge before making the kind of (mostly deserved) grand proclamations about the Cardinal that we have before other recent seasons.
Stanford appears to be contesting a more forgiving regular season schedule this season, as their biggest meet ahead of the ACC XC Championships is Pre-Nationals hosted by the University of Wisconsin. That may not be a bad strategy for this squad as they enter this year with tempered expectations, but with the potential to blow this ranking out of the water.
An interesting subplot to monitor this season: Stanford's program leader during their strong stretch in the mid-2010s, Coach Chris Miltenberg, oversees what's arguably the preseason ACC favorite in Chapel Hill.
