TSR's 2024 D3 "Way Too Early" NCAA XC Preview (Women's Teams)

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Jul 12, 2024
10 min read

Updated: Jul 21, 2024

Last year, the focal headline of the 2023 cross country season was on the Division One side as NC State narrowly defeated Northern Arizona by a single point. And while the drama of that result was certainly entertaining, the final results of the women's NCAA D3 XC Championships were arguably just as wild.

After all, the overall national title winners (Carleton) and the final podium team (Claremont-Mudd-Scripps) were separated by only seven points at that same national meet.

And now, as we enter the fall of 2024, the women's Division Three team landscape has the potential to be just as close and just as entertaining as it was last year...

NOTE: Any analysis offered in this article is not meant to be an indication of where an athlete or team will or will not be ranked in our preseason lists as new information is constantly flowing in. Any eligibility mentioned below is based off of TFRRS and any feedback that coaches have been able to offer us. We also could not get to ALL nationally relevant teams in this article. Just because a team was not mentioned does not necessarily mean that they are less relevant than other teams which were highlighted.

Just like the Division Three men's teams, trying to talk about the Division Three women's teams going into this fall is a bit tricky. That's because each of the main contenders lose high-impact names (some more than others), but still return just enough scorers to remain as one of the better teams in the country.

Let's first start with Carleton, the reigning cross country national team champions.

At first glance, you would think that the Knights return everyone from their national title-winning lineup. However, TFRRS is a bit misleading. That's because Carleton is actually losing key scorers such as Phoebe Ward and Helen Cross as well as backend contributor, Mary Blanchard.

Those are brutal loses, especially for a team that only had two All-Americans last fall. Ward was one of those two All-Americans that Carleton had and Cross was fairly close to reaching that same honor as well. And while there's reason to believe that the Knights' returning core can remain competitive for the podium, especially with Hannah Preisser and Sophie McManus returning, that still requires a few favorable projections for their returners.

How about NYU? The ladies from the "Big Apple" were just three points out from being national champions last fall and actually return six of their top-seven! For most teams, that would make the Violets the national title favorites going into the next cross country season (and that may very well be the case).

The catch, however, is that NYU's top low-stick scorer and top-10 All-American, Grace Richardson, is gone. And while plenty of other women on this team do return with plenty of promise, trying to replace Richardson's scoring is going to be a challenge.

The good news is that last year's NYU team was very deep and fairly young. The team's sixth runner, Lucy Gott, placed 86th at the NCAA XC Championships and five returning women held underclassmen eligibility last fall. On paper, that leaves the Violets with tons of upside and a fairly stable group of scorers.

The only question, however, is if they can find enough firepower to win NCAA gold.

It's a very similar story for the U. of Chicago women. While the core of their returners should help the Maroons remain competitive for a podium spot (or even the title), trying to replace their most impactful low-sticks will not be easy.

Maddie Kelly, last year's 7th place national meet finisher, is heading to Wake Forest as a graduate transfer. Caitlin Jorgensen, a key veteran name who often stabilized the Maroons' scoring, is also out of eligibility.

On paper, those losses are hardly ideal. Even so, there is still enough structure to this returning lineup which leads us to believe that the Chicago-based women can contend for NCAA gold once more in 2024. That's because Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel and Elisabeth Camic (two top-20 All-Americans) are set to return and so is a key support scorer in Sophie Tedesco (who absolutely could have been an All-American last fall).

U. of Chicago will probably still need to find much greater depth if they want to return to truly contend for the team national title in November. Of course, if any coach in the Division Three cross country realm is able to develop nationally competitive depth within a year, it's almost certainly Chris Hall.

* * *

Let's chat about Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, the fourth and final podium team from last fall. This is an interesting squad to chat about for many of the same reasons that we mentioned with U. of Chicago and NYU.

Natalie Bitetti, last year's national meet runner-up, is headed to New Mexico later this fall. And to put it simply, that is a crushing departure who will take a ton of scoring with her. Laura Zimmerman, the team's sixth runner at the national meet, is also not returning.

Thankfully for the CMS women, they bring back everyone else from their 4th place podium squad. And just like U. of Chicago, they still have the core elements to produce a very competitive cross country squad in 2024. They do, after all, return 11th place All-American, Riley Capuano, as well as 27th place All-American, Elle Marsyla. Tack on two top-90 national meet finishers and you get a team that likely won't be shaken from the national title discussion.

I think we also need to bring the ladies of SUNY Geneseo, last year's 5th place team at the NCAA XC Championships, into the fold of this conversation. Why? Well, because their story is largely no different than it is with NYU, U. of Chicago and/or Claremont-Mudd-Scripps.

The Knights lose Rachel Hirschkind from last year's team, a key veteran All-American. They also lose backend contributor, Katherine Vogel (who had a few sneaky-solid results throughout last year).

But individual national meet bronze medalist, Penelope Greene, is set to return. She will continue to give her team a true identity and plenty of firepower even with Hirschkind gone. Of course, it's Greene's fellow returners such as Lilly Fowler-Conner, Kaitlyn Grossman and Sierra Doody who will truly determine the direction of this team in 2024. Each of those women have the potential to make significant improvements and if that happens, then you're probably looking at a squad with three All-Americans.

So...who do I think is actually favored to win it all come November?

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. I'll admit, I struggle to see Carleton returning to the very top of the podium in 2024. And yet, I can't help but respect everything that this team did last year in terms of shattering our expectations. That, in turn, leaves me scared to doubt them once more.

In my eyes, NYU, U. of Chicago, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps and SUNY Geneseo are all plenty capable of winning the national team in November. The safest pick would probably be the Chicago Maroons, but the NYU Violets seemingly have the highest ceiling of this year's title contenders. Of course, I'm not the one crafting our preseason rankings. I'll leave that to our D3 crew to see what they think.

* * *

As we look outside of the top-five of last year's national meet results, it's hard to see how teams like Williams (6th) and Central College (9th) will be able to rebound in 2024. Those squads were simply crushed by expired eligibility or graduate transfer scenarios. The former team loses their entire top-four from the national meet as well as Lucy Gagnon (who was way better than her national meet effort showed) and the latter team loses four of their top-seven (including their top-two low-sticks).

Lynchburg (7th) and Emory (8th) should both be key teams to watch moving forward. While we don't have full confirmation on the eligibility of Emory's roster, TFRRS suggests that both of these teams will return most of their women from last fall.

I really like Lynchburg. Their men's team has garnered tons of attention over the last few years (and rightfully so), but their women's team is beginning to pick up some serious momentum as well.

The Hornets do lose some backend contributors, but they also return their top-four women as well. That includes low-stick Kayla Werner (who was a bit better last season than what her national meet effort showed) as well as three others who both cracked the top-100 at the NCAA XC Championships.

In fact, Warner, Allison Dell and Sarah James all finished inside the top-50 of that meet! Put simply, there is a very real possibility that this group has three All-Americans come November. It also helps that Lynchburg will be one of the more veteran teams in the country this fall.

As for Emory, TFRRS suggests that they return their entire top-five from the national meet: Brigid Hanley, Elizabeth Csikai, Liesl Scherrer, Madison Tiaffay and Natalie Sandlow. That group features two top-22 All-Americans. Scherrer gives the Eagles' three top-51 returners and Tiaffay gives Emory four top-77 national meet finishers.

Both Csikai and Tiaffay were listed as freshmen last year, meaning that, in theory, there is still plenty of remaining upside that they can tap into. Of course, the only knock that we had on the Eagles' 2023 lineup was that there was a fairly major scoring drop-off after those four aforementioned women.

But what you may not know about this team is that they didn't have Jenna Daly for the postseason last year! While she may not have been an All-American-caliber name, she was still a crucial piece for stabilizing Emory's scoring group. Daly placed 66th in the "Brown" race at the Paul Short Invite and was 7th place finisher at the Interregional Border Battle.

If Daly is returning to this team in 2024 and the TFRRS data is accurate, then you're looking at a complete scoring group with multiple All-Americans and few gaps within their top-five. In theory, that could put this squad on the podium.

* * *

UW-La Crosse is going to be a very solid team in 2024, but not having Maddie Hannan and Maddy Vantassel will likely limit how high this team can climb. Those two women were arguably better than what their national meet performances showed, but after them, there were some gaps that opened up.

I still believe that Coach Derek Stanley will find a way to develop another impactful lead scorer. The women who are returning should also be able to improve on their efforts from last year. However, they'll need a bit of spark, something that Katelyn Chadwick could offer with a breakout season.

The MIT women could be scary-good this year. And no, I don't mean, "Well, they may be able to crack the top-10." I mean that they could be on the podium in November...and then some.

The Engineers return EVERYONE from last year's lineup that placed 11th at the national meet. That includes All-American ace, Kate Sanderson, and near-All-American, Lexi Fernandez. However, another woman who is returning is Gillian Roeder. She was unable to race at the cross country national meet last fall.

At her best, Roeder is a true Division Three star. Last fall, she placed 4th at D3 Pre-Nationals and before that, she was a multi-time All-American on the track! The best version of Roeder is probably that of a top-15 name in Division Three. And if the MIT star had placed 15th at last year's national meet, then the Engineers would have cut off more than 110 points from their team score and placed 6th overall.

Admittedly, the health and availability of Roeder will ultimately decide how high the MIT women can rise this fall. Thankfully, they should still make progress even without Roeder in their lineup. That's especially true after a few up-and-coming names began to show tremendous promise on the track.

* * *

I think it would be odd if we didn't discuss Wartburg, a team that came into last fall as our national title favorites.

The Knights truthfully struggled at last year's NCAA XC Championships, fading to 14th place after their typical low-stick standouts failed to remain as a cohesive All-American group. Of course, anyone who followed the Wartburg ladies last fall knows that this team, at their very best, was good enough to be a podium squad (despite some backend depth challenges).

However, things will only get trickier for Wartburg in 2024 as low-stick Aubrie Fisher is not expected to have any remaining cross country eligibility. Fellow teammates Lexi Brown, Shaelyn Hostager and Ellie Meyer, each of whom were high-impact scorers last fall, are all expected to return this fall based on TFRRS eligibility.

At the very least, Wartburg is going to remain as a nationally competitive squad even without Fisher. The low-stick scoring trio of Brown, Hastager and Meyer will likely keep the Knights in contention for a top-10 finish at this year's national meet as long as they stay healthy. Of course, as was the case last year, the Knights' depth is going to be a major point of emphasis in 2024...except now, they need two names to step up instead of one.

I want to conclude our lengthy discussion by chatting about a deep sleeper team (if I could find one). And after some review, I can't help but feel incredibly optimistic about what the Amherst women could this year.

"But why, Garrett? Why does last year's 18th place team at the NCAA XC Championships who had zero women crack the top-100 leave you feeling optimistic?" Great question, reader! Allow me to explain.

Yes, it's true, this team lacked firepower at last year's national meet. Not having a single woman crack the top-100 isn't exactly encouraging. However, every. single. woman. from last year's national meet is expected to return. And when they do, only one of them will still be considered an underclassman.

I'm also of the belief that the Mammoths simply did not run well at the NCAA XC Championships. Remember, this is a team that placed 4th overall at D3 Pre-Nationals last year, taking down George Fox, Hope College and WPI in the process.

The other aspect to consider is that Coach Hannah Chappell-Dick took over for this group in 2023. And you know what happened shortly thereafter? The Amherst women had our TSR #3 ranked rookie class back in December.

This year's group of incoming freshmen also looks very strong, especially with Flora Biro who has run 17:47 (5k track) and Audrey Seeger who is a 4:59 miler. Frankly, it would surprise me if one of those women wasn't an impact scorer for the Mammoths this fall.

On paper, I struggle to see how this team won't be noticeably better in 2024. While it's true that they still need to find more potent scoring (and develop a long-term low-stick), the overall progression of this team should naturally lift them into the top-15 and maybe even push them towards the top-10.

Phew! That was a lot of analysis. Alright, here are a few last-minute notes before I sign off...

The Johns Hopkins women were just decimated with departures from last year's team. They'll be rebuilding a bit this season, but they are bringing in some solid transfers and recruits. Plus, I've learned to never doubt Coach Bobby Van Allen.

Washington U. returns five women from their lineup that placed 13th overall at the NCAA XC Championships. The only challenge is that they lost All-American, Alexandra Blake. But outside of her departure, this team should be able to rally behind strong returners, a very solid core of freshmen and a coach in Jeff Stiles who has proven to be one of the better develops of talent in Division Three over the years.

If you're looking for a deep, deep, deep sleeper, then I'd suggest reviewing Middlebury's lineup. They return six of their top-seven, including a true star in Audrey Maclean and a respectable-enough secondary scorer in Bea Parr. The rest of their returners weren't exactly great at the national meet, but they were probably closer to the caliber of the 16th place team rather than the 21st place team...I think.