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TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #25 Florida State Seminoles
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Aug 9, 2023
- 8 min read
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
Let's not try to sugarcoat things.
The Florida State men were simply not great throughout the 2022 cross country season. Despite having a low-stick in Fearghal Curtin and a handful of high-potential pieces, the 'Noles struggled to put together a cohesive lineup and were marred by numerous lineup gaps.
But as we enter the fall of 2023, those issues are a bit less relevant.
No, the Florida State men aren't expected to be flawless going into the next few months, but their cross country lineup will look almost nothing like what it was last year -- at least, not at the top-half of their varsity seven.
However, in order to understand why that is, you first need to know more about how the Seminoles performed throughout last fall.
* * *
The Joe Piane Invitational was the first true test of Florida State's 2022 cross country season. There, they would debut their lineup which featured transfers such as Fearghal Curtin and Cooper Schroeder as well as veteran returner, Paul Stafford and a few others.
Unfortunately, the 'Noles struggled in South Bend, Indiana that day. Curtin was fantastic with a 5th place finish, but then-sophomore Zach Leachman was the only other man inside the top-50 spots with a 49th place finish.
The rest of Florida State's scorers finished 59th, 65th and 89th. And in the end, the men from Tallahassee dropped to 11th place overall, one spot behind Boise State.
From there, things didn't get much better. At Nuttycombe, the Noles finished 30th out of 33 teams. They later ventured to the ACC XC Championships and faded to 9th place overall. They ended their season at the South Regional XC Championships with a 4th place result, arguably their best team effort of the season.
In all of those races, Curtin emerged as a valuable lead scorer, although he was better on some occasions than others. But with numerous gaps scattered throughout Florida State's lineup, the Seminoles just didn't have the scoring potency necessary to keep pace with the NCAA's more nationally competitive teams.
That, however, could all be changing in the next few months.
* * *
This article isn't going to be as long as a few others that you may see. That's because detailing every flaw and struggle of Florida State's 2022 lineup would be unnecessary. All you need to know is that the 'Noles just didn't have enough scoring support behind Fearghal Curtin to be a top team last year.
Now, as we enter the fall of 2023, Fearghal Curtin is gone and so is Paul Stafford. The former was a borderline star and the latter was an established veteran who has been a key face of the Seminoles' cross country team for the last few years.
And yet, none of that seemingly matters.
That's because Coach Robert Braman has been extremely active in the transfer portal. Over the next few months, this team will look completely different. They will likely hold far greater firepower, significantly more experience and all of the upside in the world.
Sure, we still have plenty of concerns about certain aspects of their projected lineup this fall, but the ceiling of this team is far too tantalizing to leave them out of our top-25 rankings.
* * *
Joining the Florida State men this fall are two established scoring standouts in Abdirizak Ibrahim (via New Mexico) and Ahmed Ibrahim (via Boise State). And no, they are not related.
Abdirizak Ibrahim was a true star during his time with the Lobos, although he was often underappreciated despite his immense talent.
The former New Mexico runner holds personal bests of 3:57 (mile), 3:41 (1500), 7:48 (3k) and 13:32 (5k). However, what truly makes him the full package is the fact that he is (usually) outstanding on the grass, specifically in the postseason.
At the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships, Ibrahim had a breakout race, finishing 35th overall to earn All-American honors. That, however, was a result that needed to be validated; it seemingly came out of nowhere.
But after a 2021 fall cross country season where Ibrahim was 25th at Joe Piane and 5th at the Mountain West XC Championships, the newest Seminole star returned to the national stage and posted an excellent 33rd place All-American finish.
Unfortunately, the fall of 2022 wasn't nearly as kind to Ibrahim who clearly wasn't at 100%. According to one source, the recent graduate transfer was battling an injury last year. And yet, despite that, he still finished 84th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships.
We then come to Ahmed Ibrahim, an incoming distance talent from Boise State.
Admittedly, this former Bronco distance talent doesn't have quite the same resume as his newest teammate with the same last name. Even so, Ahmed Ibrahim is still plenty talented and has the potential to be a secondary low-stick for the Florida State men later this fall.
With personal bests of 7:56 (3k) and 13:48 (5k), this west coast ace is already better than almost everyone from Florida State's cross country lineup from last year (except for Fearghal Curtin). And on the grass, Ibrahim has had moments of promise.
Last fall, Ibrahim finished 17th at Joe Piane, a great result which would have cut off over 70 points from the Seminoles' lineup.
Admittedly, Ibrahim struggled a bit at Nuttycombe (110th). He would then not race at the Mountain West XC Championships and he later settled for a decent 15th place finish at the West Regional XC Championships.
This is also someone who finished 6th at the 2021 Dellinger Invite and was 150th at the 2021 cross country national meet.
Yes, it's true, Ibrahim still has some work to do on the grass if he's going to give Florida State a reliable second scorer. However, this former Boise State runner is also someone who has dealt with injuries over the last few years, more so than Abdirizak Ibrahim.
If the rising distance talent can put together a full block of training and a full season of healthy racing, then Ahmed Ibrahim can be a top scoring talent. And if that happens, then the Florida State men will instantly be better than they were last year. In fact, even if he isn't firing at 100%, then may still be better than last year.
Of course, it's not just those two men who will carry the team this fall.
David Mullarkey is a rising distance talent who didn't race on the grass last year. However, the Great Britain native was fantastic on the oval, throwing down some exceptional marks and showcasing tremendous potential for the Seminoles.
The 23-year old Englishman has run strong times of 3:41 (1500), 7:58 (3k) and 13:37 (5k), the latter of which suggests that he could be a legitimate low-stick for the FSU men later this fall. And even if he's not that, then emerging as a high-value third and fourth scoring contributor is a more-than-reasonable expectation for Mullarkey.
And then we come to Martin Prodanov, a graduate transfer from Missouri. If you're an SEC fan, then you may remember this former Tiger as a 3:57 miler who has also run 3:39 (1500) and 1:49 (800) before.
However, Prodanov is more of a middle distance runner than a cross country runner. He also hasn't raced since the spring of 2022, per TFRRS. Even so, this is someone who, in the fall of 2021, was 19th at the SEC XC Championships and 31st at the Midwest Regional XC Championships.
Sure, he may not have the same ceiling as the three men who we already mentioned, but if he simply replicates the caliber of his prior performances at the SEC XC Championships, then this Bulgarian distance talent will add some highly valuable stability.
And for a team that experienced massive scoring chasms within their top-five last fall, that's a huge deal.
* * *
In theory, the Florida State men might have four solid scorers who can carry this team towards being a top cross country squad later this fall. However, there are two key issues that need to be addressed.
The first issue is that those four aforementioned men -- Abdirizak Ibrahim, Ahmed Ibrahim, David Mullarkey and Martin Prodanov -- all have something to prove this fall. And truthfully, none of them are 100% guaranteed to be high-impact names.
Abdirizak Ibrahim needs to prove that he can, a) stay healthy and, b) replicate his All-American performances throughout the entirety of a season, not just on the national stage.
Ahmed Ibrahim needs to prove that he can also stay healthy and offer greater consistency, specifically on larger stages.
David Mullarkey is undeniably talented, but we have yet to see him race on the grass. And when he does, we don't know how effectively he'll translate his 5k success to the cross country course.
Martin Prodanov doesn't need to be a superstar, but we haven't see him race in over a year. We simply have no idea what to expect from him later this fall.
The second issue comes in the form of a question (or two): Who is going to fill out the rest of this varsity lineup? And who is going to be the team's fifth scorer?
If Ibrahim, Ibrahim, Mullarkey and Prodanov all deliver on expectations this fall, then Florida State will simply need one more runner to step in and offer some kind of reliable scoring at the fifth spot in this team's lineup...but it's not entirely clear who that will be.
Zach Leachman showed promise at Joe Piane last fall, placing 49th, but the rest of his 2022 fall campaign left us wanting more. That said, he did run 13:57 for 5000 meters during the winter months.
Cooper Schroeder admittedly struggled a bit last cross country season, but he surprised many of us at The Stride Report when he finished 14th overall at the South Regional XC Championships. That was easily the best result of his career.
Michael Toppi was one of the better high school cross country runners in the Class of 2022. And now that he has had a year to develop, he could play a bigger role for this team in the coming months.
Joe Farley is a former Kent State runner who finished 9th at the 2022 MAC XC Championships and Matt Neill is an Irish distance talent who has run 64:37 in the half-marathon.
Clearly, Coach Robert Braman has options.
Even so, all of those men would need to make significant improvements this fall if they want to keep the gap between them and the top-four men in this lineup fairly small. They would also need to be far more consistent.
Still, when you step back and look at the big picture of this team, it's hard to ignore the incredible potential that they have.
* * *
There is a world where the Florida State men are a top-15 cross country team in the NCAA later this fall. If both Abdirizak Ibrahim and Ahmed Ibrahim are more consistent and stay healthy, if David Mullarkey delivers on his full potential and if Martin Prodanov replicates his efforts from the SEC XC Championships, then this team is going to be underrated at TSR #25.
Of course, there is zero guarantee that all of those things will happen. In fact, there isn't any guarantee that even three of those four things will happen. A higher ranking than this for the Florida State men would require a generous amount of optimistic speculation. The same can be said as to who will take over this team's fifth scoring spot.
On paper, a lot of the support pieces on this roster have the potential to be legitimate close-out contributors for the Seminoles' top-five. But after a tough 2022 fall campaign, we're not entirely sure if that will happen or who that person may be.
And if just one person has an "off" day, then who will be the sixth man to save this lineup?
Even so, it's important to recognize that the Florida State men are in a completely different position than they were in last year. The best case scenario for this team in 2023 is far more realistic than the best case scenario that we outlined for this group in 2022.
A TSR #25 ranking may not be the "right" spot to place the Florida State men (the "right spot has a 15-place fluctuation), but it is the most "fair" spot given the wild range of possible outcomes that the 'Noles could produce this fall.
