TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #2 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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When it comes to Northern Arizona cross country, it's natural for people's minds to immediately jump to their men's program. After all, they have won six national titles in seven years -- and they could win another one later this fall.

However, slowly but surely, the Lady Lumberjacks have built a highly formidable distance group of their own. And as we enter the fall of 2023, this team has a legitimate shot at winning the national title. After a huge breakout fall campaign in 2022, the NAU women only got stronger by adding top-tier low-sticks and bolstering their depth in a major way, all via the transfer portal.

They may not have the same firepower or upside that some of their fellow podium contenders do, but few teams have a floor as high as the Lumberjacks this season. If we were betting money (theoretically, of course) for teams to be on the podium in November, then NAU would be one of our safest choices.

* * *

The NAU women began their 2022 fall campaign at the Cowboy Jamboree, a meet which was headlined by top programs such as BYU, Colorado and Oklahoma State.

However, it was the Northern Arizona women who stole the show, even if they didn't win. The Lumberjacks were led by Elise Stearns (5th) and Annika Reiss (6th), two women who gave their team shockingly great (and unexpected) firepower.

Taryn O'Neill gave her squad a solid result with a 22nd place finish before fellow teammates Bryn Morley, Jesselyn Bries and Meagan Van Pelt went 27-28-29, respectively, in the overall results. They would close out NAU's top-five with some added insurance.

That was an incredible breakout race for a team that wasn't even listed in the top-10 portion of preseason team rankings. To be within 20 points of an Oklahoma State team that was racing on their home was not something that we expected to happen.

However, it was the Nuttycombe Invite where the NAU women needed to prove that their first major race of the season wasn't a fluke.

And sure enough, they silenced any doubters.

Stearns' 3rd place finish was beyond fantastic as she gave the Lumberjacks a lethal low-stick that was even more potent than what we saw from her two weeks prior. Behind her, there were some lineup gaps, but Annika Reiss held her own for a very solid 40th place finish.

But the greatest strength of this team was their depth. With O'Neill, Alexis Kebbe and Bries placing 64-66-71, respectively, in the overall results, the NAU women snagged a monumental 3rd place finish in Madison, Wisconsin.

The verdict was in.

The ladies of Flagstaff, Arizona were the real deal.

From there, the Lumberjacks' road to the national meet was fairly unexciting. NAU won the BIG Sky XC Championships by a very comfortable margin and advanced out of the Mountain Regional XC Championships with ease. Their next race was the NCAA XC Championships.

Upon returning to Stillwater, Oklahoma, Stearns capped off an incredible breakout campaign by finishing 4th overall at the national meet. That low-stick result was paired with Reiss' 47th place finish, giving NAU two women in the top-50.

And once again, the depth stepped up.

Bries (67th), Morley (95th), Kebbe (99th), O'Neill (106th) and Van Pelt (112th) were all fairly close to each other given the massive field size of the NCAA XC Championships. And with so much scoring support, it was impossible to see how the Lumberjacks were going to have a poor outing.

In the end, NAU landed at 6th overall in the team standings. They needed a bit more firepower to truly contend for the podium, but overall, it was a massively successful weekend. The Lumberjacks capped a fall campaign that was far better than what we were expecting.

* * *

Last year's Northern Arizona squad was a fairly easy group to assess. They had a superstar low-stick, a separate fringe low-stick and a ton of depth.

The problem, however, is that multiple women who offered highly valuable scoring last fall are no longer on the team. Not having Taryn O'Neill, Bryn Morley and Jesselyn Bries leaves this roster with far less margin for error than they had throughout the 2022 cross country season.

Well, at least on paper, that is.

Make no mistake, when it comes to returners, there are a handful of veterans on this team who can help the Northern Arizona women remain as a top-10 program this fall. However, in order to match this ranking, the Lumberjacks needed a massive boost in firepower and extra help in the depth department.

And luckily for them, they got both of those things this fall.

The ladies from Flagstaff, Arizona landed four high-impact transfers earlier this summer, two of which were All-Americans while the other two clearly hold All-American potential. As a result, the scoring structure of this team looks drastically different and the expectations for this squad have taken a leap.

* * *

Elise Stearns is likely going to be the focal star of this group yet again in 2023. She was flat-out fantastic last fall, making a massive jump in her fitness that we didn't see coming at all.

This NAU veteran was 5th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 3rd at Nuttycombe and 4th at the NCAA XC Championships. Despite those stages becoming increasingly more challenging, Stearns didn't waiver. Despite her inexperience at such an elite level, she was still incredibly reliable.

We should note that in December, Stearns ran a fantastic 5000 meter personal best of 15:33 at Boston University. She went on to place 11th overall at the indoor national meet in that event, but remained absent in the spring.

Not racing on the outdoor oval earlier this year wasn't a great development, but it's hard to put much stock in her hiatus. At the end of the day, Stearns just needs to return to her form from last year as she enters the fall of 2023 -- and we believe that she will.

As for Annika Reiss, she is someone who we have high hopes for after an encouraging year of competition on both the track and the grass.

A 6th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree last fall was an excellent result that we were not at all expecting to see from Reiss. Her 40th place finish at Nuttycombe was great, but not quite as impressive. The same could (maybe) be said for her 47th place finish on the national stage.

Regardless, we still opted to list Reiss at TSR #49 in our preseason individual cross country rankings. She was consistent last fall and (briefly) showed signs of being a legitimate star low-stick. On the track, Reiss ran a 4:40 mile PR at altitude to earn 8th place All-American honors at the indoor national meet. She would later venture to the spring months where she earned a new 15:49 (5k) PR.

We have every reason to believe that Reiss can be an All-American this fall. She still needs to make additional improvements, but she can clearly offers great firepower on the right day -- her performance at the Cowboy Jamboree showed that.

However, Reiss might not be the second-best low-stick on this team. In fact, she might even end up as this team's fourth scorer!

That's because the Northern Arizona coaching staff is bringing in two established All-American cross country standouts to their roster this fall.

Gracelyn Larkin, a graduate transfer from New Mexico, has been one of the most reliable low-stick stars in the NCAA on championship stages. At the cross country national meet, Larkin has finished 21st, 25th and 26th -- that is incredible reliability.

Not only that, but this Canadian distance standout also ran 15:23 (5k) earlier this summer after a spring campaign where she ran 32:32 (10k). Not only is she going to be a consistent focal star for this lineup, but she could exceed her TSR #17 preseason ranking and possibly crack the top-10 on the national stage.

Larkin gives this team exactly what they needed last fall -- more firepower. In fact, she gives them some of the best raw firepower that any woman in the transfer portal could offer their team in 2023 (outside of a healthy Natalie Cook). And with a strong core of women set to return from last fall, the introduction of Larkin immediately puts them in the All-American conversation.

Of course, as we mentioned earlier, Larkin isn't the only All-American transfer who is joining this program in 2023. That's because the Lumberjacks also added Ruby Smee from the University of San Francisco.

The veteran distance talent placed 34th at the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships, but had a slightly quieter fall campaign in 2022 which was capped with a 58th place finish on the national stage.

Even so, a recent streak of personal bests on the track earlier this year, including a 32:30 (10k) PR, suggests that Smee could very easily return to her All-American ways come November. And at the very least, this veteran has proven to be highly reliable. She rarely has a truly poor race and even if she's not an All-American, she'll still stabilize the latter-half of this lineup.

Suddenly, when you take a step back, you'll see that Northern Arizona now has four legitimate All-American contenders for later this fall, including two women who could be among the top-10. And we haven't even gotten to their supporting cast yet...

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The rest of this roster is loaded with talent. We couldn't possibly highlight everyone who could potentially contribute to this team in 2023. If we did, then we would just end up listing 90% of Northern Arizona's roster.

However, the two main returners to keep an eye on this fall are Alexis Kebbe and Megan Van Pelt. Those women had moments of great scoring stability throughout the 2022 cross country season.

Kebbe entered last fall with an admittedly limited collegiate resume. She was clearly a developmental piece and we had yet to see her emerge as someone who could contribute to this team. But after a fairly solid 56th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree, Kebbe went on to earn a strong 66th place finish at Nuttycombe and a 99th place result at the national meet.

Sure, Kebbe isn't expected to be a low-stick for this group in 2023, but she offers tremendous scoring value and stability. She seemed to fare incredibly well in larger meets and could still make improvements this fall, further strengthening the backend of this lineup.

As for Van Pelt, her 29th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree was a quietly excellent result. For some ranked teams, a performance like that would have made her a borderline low-stick. However, Van Pelt would go on to place 84th at Nuttycombe and 112th at the national meet, performances that weren't quite on par with her September-time race.

Van Pelt clearly has the potential to be so much better in 2023 than she was in 2022. A top-30 result at the Cowboy Jamboree puts her in some strong company. If she can tap into that fitness throughout the entirety of the fall months, then I don't know how Northern Arizona doesn't emerge as a podium team in November.

But for as valuable as Kebbe and Van Pelt are, it's plenty possible that two newcomers will instead take over the final few spots of this lineup. I am, of course, talking about New Mexico transfers, Maisie Grice and Aliandrea Upshaw.

Grice is somewhat new to the NCAA, coming over the from UK last year and developing into a top steeplechaser this past spring. With a personal best of 9:48 over the barriers and water pits, the raw talent is clearly there if this former Lobo wants to emerge as a scorer this fall.

The 2023 outdoor national meet qualifier has yet to truly showcase her newfound fitness on the grass. And we'll admit, we don't totally know how she'll fare this fall. It's totally possible that Grice is a non-factor in November and we see her return to a nationally competitive level on the track in 2024.

However, if you look at all of the D1 women who ran under 9:50 in the steeplechase this past spring (including at the regional and national meets), then you'll find that roughly half of them have been All-Americans. And many of the women who weren't All-Americans didn't have their breakout seasons until this past year and they haven't been able to (or wont be able to) translate that fitness to the grass (yet).

In other words, don't sleep on Grice this fall.

Fellow teammate, Ali Upshaw, is another woman who we are (and have been) very high on. We believe that this true long distance talent has yet to translate her full aerobic prowess to the grass. And when she does, we think she has All-American potential.

In the spring of 2022, Upshaw had a streak of personal bests, producing times of 15:54 (5k) and 33:18 (10k). Those marks, paired with her (brief) moments of promise on the grass, leaves us to believe that she could be a legitimate breakout name for this squad in 2023.

Of course, we still need to see that happen first.

Other names to monitor include Nikita Moore, Emma Stutzman, Anna Fenske, Samantha Blair and Maggie Congdon. Each of those women have shown that they have potential to be varsity contributors for this team, even on a squad as deep as NAU's.

Moore ran 16:04 (5k) this past spring and earned a solid 57th place finish at the Cowboy Jamboree last fall. Meanwhile, Congdon ran a strong 4:38 mile PR this past winter and also placed 59th at the Cowboy Jamboree.

Both Fenske and Blair have nationally competitive high school pedigree. As for Stutzman, she is a true rookie who finished 17th at the NXN Championships and has run 9:52 for two miles and 16:44 for 5000 meters.

Out of all of those women, it's Stutzman who should put the other podium contenders on high alert. This rookie is still young and inexperienced, but her raw fitness in the longer distances is among the best in the nation. Being a Colorado native, she's already familiar with altitude, so her transition to Flagstaff, Arizona could be seamless.

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Yes, you could argue that Colorado and/or Florida deserve to be ahead of the Northern Arizona women in our preseason rankings. And truthfully, we wouldn't argue with you (too much). Those teams probably have more firepower than the Lumberjacks currently do going into this fall, at least on paper.

The difference, however, is that this team is void of flaws. We don't see a legitimate weak point in their lineup. They have a ton of firepower across the All-American spectrum, they return core veterans who can stabilize their top-five and they have talented newcomers who hold tons of upside.

Plus, all of those women have championship experience.

Unlike Colorado, health and availability hasn't been as big of an issue for many of these NAU women and their depth is clearly stronger than what the Gators will field this fall. While they may not be quite as flashy as those teams, Northern Arizona still feels like the safest pick to go with at our TSR #2 spot.

And who knows? If everything breaks their way, then maybe this team could win a national title in Charlottesville, Virginia come November...