TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #1 NC State Wolfpack

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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The worst kept secret of our summer rankings is no longer a secret.

The NC State women are our preseason TSR #1 team for the 2023 cross country season.

Shocker, I know.

What Coach Laurie Henes has done with this program over the last few years is remarkable. It started with her legendary recruiting efforts with the Class of 2020 (featuring Katelyn Tuohy) which then sparked a wave of other top recruits and transfers joining this team.

This roster has become an unstoppable cross country juggernaut. They are the definition of excellence in the NCAA. And with an all-time elite talent likely nearing the end of her time with the Wolfpack, the NC State women have a chance to do something incredibly special during the 2023 cross country season.

They could become a dynasty.

* * *

The first major challenge of NC State's 2022 fall campaign came at the Joe Piane XC Invitational where the Wolfpack women would face the likes of New Mexico and Alabama, two heavy favorites for the podium. This was not going to be an easy first race for some of the top women on this team.

Of course, you wouldn't have known that by watching Katelyn Tuohy.

The all-time phenom blew her competition away over the final kilometer of the race, leaving distance star Mercy Chelangat behind. It was an impressive, but relatively unsurprising, win for the NC State ace.

Behind her, we saw teammates Sam Bush and Sydney Seymour, the latter being a graduate transfer, cross the line 5th and 6th place, respectively. Those were also outstanding results, but not totally out of the realm of possibility for either of those women.

After a fantastic 2022 outdoor track season, Marlee Starliper would put together a strong season debut with a 12th place finish. Her race would give this team an overwhelming amount of firepower through four runners which surpassed the top scoring quartets of both Alabama and New Mexico.

Brooke Rauber would fall a bit further back in 31st place, but that was still a strong enough result to give the Wolfpack women a (somewhat) comfortable win. And with Kelsey Chmiel not in the lineup, it was clear that NC State could plug that backend gap with ease at their next meet...right?

Well, they sorta did, but the Nuttycombe Invite didn't go as well as you'd think it would have.

Tuohy was incredible as always by taking home the win while Kelsey Chmiel returned to action and produced a huge runner-up result. We figured that a top-10 finish was in the cards for her, but a 2nd place finish was scoring potency that truly separated NC State from everyone else.

Samantha Bush would post a solid 18th place finish of her own, a relatively unsurprising result for someone who we expected to place among the top-20. Sydney Seymour would settle for a 23rd place finish which was a respectable result, but we felt like she also had a slightly better race in her.

Veteran Nevada Mareno would end up having a huge performance, placing 36th overall in what ended up being one of the better races of her career. In fact, it was her performance that would ultimately save NC State from an upset.

The final results showed that the Wolfpack and New Mexico had actually TIED for the win! The Lobos had put three women in the top-12 and all five of their scorers in the top-26 places of the overall results.

In the end, NC State won on a tie-breaker, but it was also clear that this team was not invincible like we thought they were. With Marlee Starliper out for the rest of the season and the backend of this lineup still developing, the Wolfpack were not the overwhelming national title favorites like we originally thought they were.

And if you thought that was an overreaction, then the ACC XC Championships would prove otherwise.

At the conference level, the Wolfpack were expected to win with relative ease, although the Notre Dame women were beginning to catch fire.

In Charlottesville, Virginia, the combination of Tuohy and Chmiel went 1-2 while Bush placed 5th overall. Yet again, the scoring potency of this squad was overwhelmingly impressive. Through three runners, it was tough to see how this team could lose.

But then the Fighting Irish put five women in the top-14. The final two NC State scorers were Brooke Rauber (10th) and Gionna Quarzo (16th) who did just enough to give the Wolfpack women the conference title by four points.

Yes, Notre Dame deserved massive credit for a great race, but having the necessary depth to win a national title was becoming an increasingly bigger emphasis for NC State as the postseason progressed.

After cruising through the Southeast Regional XC Championships, the NC State women toed the line in Stillwater, Oklahoma. Questions remained about whether or not their depth would come through on the big stage, but in the eyes of most, they were still the national title favorites.

Tuohy took home the individual win in a thrilling battle with Parker Valby while Chmiel had the single-best race of her career to earn bronze. And on a stage as massive as the NCAA XC Championships, two women in the top-three was a huge deal.

Bush would save her best race of the season for the national meet as she posted a fantastic 15th place finish. In a year where so much attention was given to the top and backend portions of NC State's lineup, Bush's reliability felt a bit underrated.

However, the real hero of this team was Nevada Mareno. The NC State veteran had the race of her life, blowing away expectations to earn a 29th place All-American finish. And even with NC State's final scorer, Rauber, placing 90th overall, the Wolfpack women were still able to beat a New Mexico team that had five All-Americans.

If Mareno hadn't been in the lineup, then the Lobos would have won gold.

In the end, Coach Laurie Henes' team won the 2022 cross country national title. Despite a few scares in their lead up to the national meet, the NC State women still emerged as back-to-back national champions with some wildly lethal upfront scoring.

* * *

As we approach the 2023 cross country season, the NC State women have a chance to win their third-straight national title. Doing so would unofficially solidify them as an all-time dynasty, although some may suggest that they're already at that point.

However, maybe more importantly, this is potentially the last year where we will see Katelyn Tuohy in the NCAA. While no known decision has been made about her pro career, it's possible that the all-time NCAA megastar will depart the collegiate realm after this year (or even this fall) despite having another season of cross country eligibility for 2024.

Again, nothing is set in stone, but that's what the expectations are.

In other words, the NC State women may not be favored for a national title in the fall of 2024 once Tuohy and Kelsey Chmiel leave the program. But for now, both of those veteran stars are set to return and the same can be said for All-American ace, Sam Bush.

However, the Wolfpack are expected to lose both Nevada Mareno and Sydney Seymour from last year's lineup. And if you read the above seasonal recap, then you know how insanely important both of those women were to this team in the fall of 2022, specifically Mareno.

Admittedly, Seymour was slightly "off" in the postseason last fall, but she offered great middle lineup value for NC State at meets like Joe Piane and Nuttycombe. The Wolfpack women will have strong options to replace her, but there's no guarantee that they'll find a fifth runner who was quite as good as Seymour when she was racing at her best.

As for Mareno, she was the true hero of this team last fall. If it wasn't for her efforts at the two biggest meets of the year, then you're likely looking at a season where NC State loses to the New Mexico women...twice.

And for a team that didn't necessarily have the greatest depth in the world last fall, losing a backend All-American as good as her is a hard pill to swallow.

But what if I told you that depth may not even matter for NC State in 2023? And what if I told you that their firepower may actually be significantly better this fall compared to last year? Well, believe it or not, that may actually be the case for the women of Raleigh, North Carolina later this fall...

* * *

Truthfully, I don't think we need to talk much about Katelyn Tuohy or Kelsey Chmiel. They were easily the best 1-2 punch in the NCAA last fall and that shouldn't change in 2023. This veteran duo was as elite as they could get and no matter how much they improve, they will have nearly zero impact on the team's overall score.

Someone is probably going to misinterpret that above paragraph as jab, but it is sincerely the biggest compliment anyone can give to a cross country runner. These two women are so good that, broadly speaking, they mathematically can't get much better.

Yes, Chmiel had a slight "off" season this past spring, but if an "off" season still ends with an All-American honor, then we're not concerned about her at all.

As for Sam Bush, it felt like she was often overlooked for how good she was last fall. The middle lineup scorer was super consistent and offered results that would make her a top scoring option on teams that are currently listed inside the top-10 of our rankings this summer.

With tons of experience and multiple All-American honors on her resume, it's hard not to be high on Bush. However, her recent lack of racing this past spring was slightly concerning. Not toeing the line for any races after the month of April is obviously not a great sign.

But with five months to reset and rebuild her fitness until the Joe Piane Invite, our writing staff didn't have much of an issue with listing Bush at TSR #16 in our preseason individual cross country rankings.

And the craziest part?

Bush may not even be this team's third scorer this fall.

Instead, that honor may go to Amaris Tyynismaa, the Alabama transfer who gives this program potentially the best top-four in the NCAA this fall. In fact, this former Crimson Tide runner may end up giving the Wolfpack one of the greatest scoring trios ever. She is, after all, listed at TSR #7 in our preseason individual cross country rankings.

After sitting out during the winter months, Tyynismaa ran 15:30 for 5000 meters in the spring and earned 4th place All-American honors in that event at the outdoor national meet. She also ran 8:55 (3k) back in December and ran 4:09 (1500) back in the spring of 2022.

However, more importantly, Tyynismaa is a two-time top-10 finisher at the NCAA XC Championships. She finished 3rd at the 2021 winter cross country national meet and then after sitting out of the fall of 2021 with an injury, came back last year to place 9th at the 2022 cross country national meet.

For a team that is in "win now" mode, Tyynismaa was probably the best possible name who the Wolfpack could have landed from the transfer portal. And when you start doing the math of where these individual rankings correlate to points at the national meet, it's easy to see why NC State sits at TSR #1 in our preseason list.

* * *

Here are the four preseason individual rankings that we gave to NC State's top-four women for this fall: Tuohy (TSR #1), Chmiel (TSR #4), Tyynismaa (TSR #7) and Bush (TSR #16). If those rankings were placements at the 2022 national meet and we scored the Wolfpack through four runners, then you're looking at 24 team points (28 points in total).

In order to get to last year's winning score of 114 points, the Wolfpack women could have had their fifth runner place 111th overall -- and they would have still beat New Mexico by 26 points.

Obviously, that methodology is far from perfect when evaluating how good a certain team is (or is expected to be). There are tons of different factors that could happen at a national meet and last year's teams around the NCAA could look very different from one year to another.

Even so, that example should at least give you a very rough idea of how good this top-four could be for the Wolfpack this fall. And with plenty of reliable backend scoring options (who will likely be way better than 111th at the national meet), we don't know how this team is going to lose in 2023.

Abby Loveys, a graduate transfer from Princeton, could be a key name to watch this fall. She finished 34th at the Nuttycombe Invite last fall and was 3rd at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships. We didn't see the Tiger veteran race at the national meet due to illness, but on the track, we saw her run times of 9:11 (3k) and 16:05 (5k).

For someone who just needs to be a passable fifth scoring option, Loveys is a fantastic runner to have. She was fairly consistent over the last year and showed the ability to be a lead scorer for some teams at the backend of our rankings.

Yes, she still needs to prove herself a bit more, but it's hard to dislike anything that she did in her final year with Princeton. And for an NC State team that has a lot of younger and developmental runners, having a veteran like her could be an incredible asset.

Speaking of younger runners, we're struggling to see how redshirt freshman Grace Hartman isn't going to be a future All-American, either this fall or in later seasons. She ran 4:39 (mile) and 15:49 (5k) this past year as just a rookie.

Sure, we don't perfectly know how Hartman is going to respond in her first season on the grass, but her recent results are incredibly encouraging. If she catches fire this fall, then you could be looking at a fifth All-American for NC State with tons of youth-based upside.

In our eyes, she's the biggest x-factor on this roster.

It's also wild that we have reached this point in the article and we're only now mentioning Brooke Rauber. As just a redshirt freshman, this former high school star saved NC State on a handful of occasions.

A 10th place finish at the ACC XC Championships was a better-than-expected result that helped fend off Notre Dame. And by snagging a 90th place finish at the national meet, it was hard to not be encouraged about what this New York native could eventually do with another year of racing experience.

We haven't see Rauber race since March, but given her pedigree and subtly-great success last fall, we would be surprised if she's not in this lineup over the next three months.

Other women to watch include rookie stars such as Leah Stephens, Kate Putman, Jolena Quarzo and Angelina Napolean. Each of those freshmen have excellent long distance credentials, although it's Stephens (who recently decommitted from Florida State) who we think has the best shot at contributing to this team in 2023.

Other returning veterans due for a big year include Jenna Schulz and Mariah Howlett.

* * *

My parting message for this article is fairly similar to how I concluded our analysis of the Northern Arizona men: Enjoy this while you can. This kind of success is extremely rare.

It's one thing for a team to go after their third-straight national title. But to do that with a runner who is among the greatest to ever (in the NCAA) makes this recent string of dominance even more special.

When it comes to the Wolfpack women, you're witnessing the rise of a cross country dynasty. A third-straight national title would cement this Raleigh-based program as one of the all-time greatest collegiate distance squads on the grass.

And frankly, you're just lucky enough to see it.