TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #1 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.

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Click here to see our "Just Missed" & "Honorable Mention" teams

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Surprise? I guess?

Most knowledgable collegiate distance running fans likely knew that the Northern Arizona men were going to be our TSR #1 team for this fall. Sure, you could make an argument for a couple of other programs like BYU and Oklahoma State, but none of those options were as safe as what the Lumberjacks offer for 2023.

Last year, for the most part, was actually not a great fall campaign from the NAU men, comparatively speaking. Sure, they won the national title, but in terms of their performances leading up to that meet, this aerobic-centric powerhouse just didn't look like themselves.

But if the 'Jacks were able to win NCAA gold (albeit, on a tie-breaker) despite having such a tough season, then what argument did we have against them being listed at TSR #1 if they have only improved their roster since then?

No, Northern Arizona isn't invincible, but on the stages that matter the most, we haven't found anyone (since 2019) who has been able to upend this historic dynasty.

* * *

The Lumberjacks began their 2022 cross country season at the Cowboy Jamboree, an early-season meet in Stillwater, Oklahoma which gave a handful of top programs a look at the eventual national meet course.

While the NAU men were the main stars of the show, it was BYU, Oklahoma State and Stanford who also headlined the field -- and they did not make things easy on the defending national champions.

Nico Young (5th) and Drew Bosley (9th) unsurprisingly gave their team a lethal 1-2 punch. But for as strong as those results were, we did expect that duo to have slightly better races. Of course, any improvements they made would have had a somewhat minimal impact on the overall team standings.

With Ryan Raff securing a strong 19th place finish, the Lumberjacks were doing well, but they were already at a deficit in their terms of their firepower compared to the other top programs. Kang Nyoak (38th) and Santiago Prosser (39th) each had one of their better cross country races, but NAU still needed far greater scoring potency from the backend of their lineup if they were going to compete for the win.

In the end, the Lumberjacks faded to 3rd place. They were well behind BYU and nine points behind a Stanford team that didn't have Ky Robinson. And with Oklahoma State missing three of their top-five scorers, it was hard to be excited about anything that NAU had produced in their first legitimate race of the season.

However, in the Lumerbacks' defense, All-American George Kusche had an "off" day, Brodey Hasty wasn't in their lineup and superstar freshman Colin Sahlman had yet to debut. It may not have been their best effort, but there were still avenues for improvement.

Of course, if there were any, then we didn't see that at the Nuttycombe Invite.

In Madison, Wisconsin, the NAU men continued to struggle at the backend of their lineup. Young (2nd) was fantastic and Bosley (5th) continued to take a step closer to the "elite" tier of collegiate distance runners. But with Santiago Prosser finishing 33rd overall as the team's third scorer, the Lumberjacks were effectively taken out of contention for the win.

Raff (45th) and rookie Colin Sahlman (60th) closed out the scoring, and those were two solid results, but Northern Arizona needed so much more. In the end, they finished way back of both Stanford and BYU in 3rd place. They were only four points ahead of the Air Force men.

Admittedly, the next two meets on NAU's schedule didn't hold much weight in terms of our evaluation of them. The Lumberjacks' cruised through the BIG Sky XC Championships with ease (despite Montana State having a great team) and won the Mountain Regional XC Championships with a clear focus on qualifying for the national meet.

And yet, despite their two postseason wins, very few people (TSR included) gave Northern Arizona a realistic shot at winning the national title. On paper, they just weren't deep enough and their firepower was clearly limited after Young and Bosley.

Or so we thought.

At the NCAA XC Championships, Young and Bosley had a pair of wildly impressive races, settling for 2nd and 3rd place, respectively. Just like they had done all season long, this duo did their jobs exceptionally well.

However, it was what we saw behind that 1-2 punch that stunned us. Santiago Prosser had been having a great season, but his 19th place finish on the national stage was downright shocking. It was also surprising to see veteran Brodey Hasty lock down a 25th place finish after historically being a fringe All-American.

And George Kusche? The All-American veteran? Well, after struggling throughout the fall months, he delivered on the biggest stage, earning a 39th place All-American finish.

With all of those men coming together to have the best races of their careers, the NAU men scored just 83 points. Even better, they tied with Oklahoma State...and won the tie-breaker. For the sixth time in program history, the Northern Arizona men were national champions.

* * *

After six national titles stemming from two separate three-peats, you'd expect the NAU men to experience at least some sort of fall off...right?

Well, if that's ever going to happen, then it's not going to be this year.

The Lumberjacks do lose George Kusche from last year's lineup. And for a team that was clearly limited on reliable scoring depth last fall, it's never ideal to lose a multi-time All-American, even if he was inconsistent leading up to his season finale.

NAU will also be without Ryan Raff in 2023. While he was only an occasional scorer, the long-time veteran always felt like an underrated piece of this team. He offered great depth on a handful of occasions and even stepped up as a top-five scorer when this team needed help.

But for as valuable as those men were for Northern Arizona over the last few years, their departures shouldn't hurt this team too much. With a heavy core of the Lumberjacks' lineup set to return, and a top-tier transfer being added to the mix, this squad should only get better (on paper) over the next few months.

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Nico Young and Drew Bosley are really, really good at this whole, "running" thing. They are true aerobic stars who are built for cross country and it would be no surprise if they went 1-2 at the 2023 NCAA XC Championships. They are truly that good.

Admittedly, the recent absence of Drew Bosley this past spring (which, based on an Instagram photo, was possibly due to injury) leave us a little hesitant about him for this fall. Nico Young is also continuing to rebound after dealing with a nagging injury from the end of the 2022 cross country season. He was still in All-American form this past winter and spring, but he wasn't anywhere near his best.

There isn't a whole lot more to say about this duo. As long as they are both healthy and firing on all cylinders this fall, there isn't much more that they can do to help their team, mathematically, in the scoring.

And again, that's not an insult, that just means that NAU is getting the most value that they can out of their dynamic 1-2 punch on the grass.

However, this team's third low-stick is expected to be someone who wasn't even in Flagstaff, Arizona last fall! I am, of course, talking about the incoming graduate transfer, Aaron Las Heras from Wake Forest.

Las Heras flashed moments of brilliance leading up to the 2022 cross country season. During the 2022 outdoor track season, the former Demon Deacon ran 28:13 (10k) to secure the overall win at the Raleigh Relays. He later ran 13:38 (5k) at the ACC Outdoor Championships.

All of that led to Las Heras placing 14th at the Cowboy Jamboree, 3rd at the ACC XC Championships and 26th at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships. Not only that, but he would go on to run 3:36 for 1500 meters and 13:27 for 5000 meters this past summer! Those marks came after he finished 22nd overall at the 2023 World XC Championships.

We may "only" have Las Heras ranked at TSR #17 in our preseason individual cross country rankings, but it's very possible that this guy is a top-10 runner by November. He has made massive improvements over the last year and a half and he's very experienced on numerous championship stages.

With many of his best track performances coming in recent months, the Northern Arizona men are likely getting someone who is still reaching the peak of his collegiate prime.

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It seems absurd that we're only now highlighting Santiago Prosser and Brodey Hasty, two veteran standouts who were top-30 All-Americans last fall. However, just because their analysis was delayed to this section doesn't mean that they aren't incredibly important.

Admittedly, both of these men were different runners at the national meet last fall than they were during the regular season. For Hasty, that is largely unsurprising. He's been doing that since he first got to the NCAA, although the 2022 national meet was easily the best race of his career.

But for Prosser, we'll fully admit, his stunning top-20 All-American effort came out of nowhere.

Make no mistake, both Prosser and Hasty are guys who can act as valuable scorers during the regular season. However, if Northern Arizona wants to avoid the same concerns that they developed prior to last year's national meet, then this backend All-American duo needs to consistently replicate their postseason efforts throughout entirety of the fall months.

Trying to balance those two aspects of their resume is what ultimately landed Prosser and Hasty at TSR #33 and TSR #34, respectively, in our preseason individual cross country rankings.

However, there is a very good chance that a different Lumberjack enters NAU's scoring group this fall -- and the options on their roster are plentiful.

It's impossible to ignore the potential of Theo Quax. He has had moments of promise on the grass, but his performances on the track over the last year are what make us excited. With personal bests of 1:49 (800), 3:39 (1500), 7:49 (3k) and 13:29 (5k) all coming this past winter and spring, it feels like this Kiwi standout is in the shape of his career.

Admittedly, Quax has had a few shortcomings in the postseason and his 2022 fall campaign wasn't great. But this is someone who is simply too talented (and too experienced) to be left out of consideration for a possible scoring role.

Also, how about Colin Sahlman? The rising sophomore wasn't amazing on the grass as a rookie, but a 60th place finish at Nuttycombe showed potential. And once he got comfortable, this former high school megastar ran times of 1:46.99 (800), 3:38 (1500) and 13:42 (5k) on the oval this past spring!

Given his pedigree and recent track success, Sahlman could be due for a major breakout cross country season. That's not guaranteed to happen, but it certainly could. For that reason, we listed Sahlman in the "Just Missed" section of our preseason individual cross country rankings.

Other returners such as Kang Nyoak, Cael Grotenhuis, Aidan Puffer and Corey Gorgas have all shown flashes of promise and could absolutely crack NAU's top-seven later this fall. Nyoak has run 13:42 (5k), Grotenhuis has run 28:45 (10k), Gorgas has run 13:45 (5k) and Puffer is a rising sophomore due for a breakout year.

The Lumberjacks are also bringing in a very strong recruiting class in Aaron Sahlman, Zach Munson and Ford Washburn. However, despite that rookie trio being extremely talented, we would expect these men to be redshirted this fall.

Yes, we know Sahlman (the younger brother) won the 2022 NXN Championships, but based on his credentials, it's clear that there are more proven aerobic-centric recruits than him. Of course, we'll happily admit that we're wrong if he shows us otherwise.

* * *

I don't know what I could possibly say about this team that hasn't already been said.

The mentality of this group is just different, but I couldn't distinctly tell you how. It's largely something that you'd have to watch and experience over their last seven years of dominance to truly understand.

There are dynasties, and then there's whatever Northern Arizona is.

Some fans may complain about the monotony of the Lumberjacks' reign in NCAA cross country -- and I can understand where they're coming from. But what you're seeing from this team isn't just historic, it's legendary.

And unfortunately for every other program in the NCAA, that likely won't stop anytime soon.