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TSR's 2023 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #14 Arkansas Razorbacks
- Gavin Struve
- Aug 20, 2023
- 9 min read
Written by Gavin Struve, additional commentary and edits by Garrett Zatlin
NOTE: Earlier this summer, The Stride Report reached out to nearly every team that was considered for a possible ranking this summer. While we did receive numerous responses and great clarity, we did not get a 100% response rate. On rare occasions, we are referencing TFFRS in order to talk about returners and athletes who are out of eligibility.
After two-straight podium appearances and a taste of the glory that they enjoyed in the 1990s, the Arkansas men fell back to Earth last fall.
That was largely expected for a team ranked at TSR #20 in our 2022 preseason team rankings, but that likely didn’t make it any easier for a program that is used to dominating the SEC and finishing near the top of the national meet standings.
Fortunately for ‘Hogs fans, this year's iteration of the Razorbacks' cross country squad is set up to be an improvement from 2022 and something in between those recent backend podium squads and the backend national meet finishes from 2022 (23rd), 2019 (30th) and 2018 (25th).
Coach Chris Bucknam has seen a lot in his 16 years leading this program. And this fall, he'll enjoy enough returning production and continuity to get his team back to the top of the SEC and the NCAA.
* * *
It would hardly be fair to say that Arkansas sandbagged their 2022 fall schedule. However, it was admittedly hard to get a true gauge of this team’s mettle throughout most of the season.
The Razorbacks didn’t race at Nuttycombe or the Cowboy Jamboree and mostly finished toward the front of the fields they were placed in. Which is to say, Arkansas didn’t give us much indication of how they would fare at the NCAA XC Championships in November.
Arkansas began the 2022-23 academic year with most of their roster racing a 5k at the Cowboy Preview. In what was mostly a tune-up effort, the Razorbacks placed three runners in the top-10 and all five of their scorers in the top-20.
That allowed them to finish runner-up behind host Oklahoma State in the small four-team meet which is exactly where we would have expected them to land.
Next came the Chile Pepper XC Festival.
The Razorbacks understandably dominated against lesser competition at their home meet. Their top low-stick, Patrick Kiprop, finished runner-up behind JUCO national champion, Sanele Masondo. Meanwhile, Lexington Hilton finished 3rd while racing unattached. Ben Shearer placed 6th in one of the better races of his young career, but the scoring then fell off a bit until Josh Shearer closed it out in 29th place.
However, it was the Weis-Crockett Invitational, often referred to as Pre-Nationals, that raised the first real questions about the ‘Hogs’ venerability last fall.
Kiprop underwhelmed a bit, placing 13th overall, while Elias Schreml led the way in 10th. Ben Shearer and Myles Richter both landed in the top-30 before Josh Shearer was once again was their fifth scorer, this time finishing in 46th place.
Ultimately, the Razorbacks fell to 4th in the team standings during their second trip to Oklahoma State’s course. They finished behind Montana State, California Baptist and Butler, all teams that Arkansas arguably should have beat at its best.
Both the Razorbacks’ depth and firepower were lacking. Kiprop needed to offer greater consistency at the top of this lineup and the gaps behind him needed to be far lesser. Naturally, this team entered the postseason with some newfound uncertainties.
In order to defend their back-to-back SEC team titles, Arkansas was in need of a tangible bounce-back. And even if they didn't win, then they at least needed a confidence boost to shake off a not-so-great effort.
Luckily for them, this group mostly delivered on that last part.
Kiprop finally hinted at the low-stick cross country potential that we knew he held by placing 5th on the conference stage while Elias Schreml snagged a strong 10th place finish. Myles Richter and Jacob McLeod followed in close succession with 12th and 16th place runs, respectively. Ben Shearer came across the line as the fifth scorer in 21st place.
It was a balanced lineup that featured strong firepower, limited gaps and passable backend scoring. Despite having the same personnel, the Razorbacks looked like a different team than what we had seen from them at the Weis-Crockett Invitational.
When the dust settled, Arkansas finished behind Alabama and tied with Tennessee for a runner-up result, but were pushed to 3rd place on the tie-breaker. In the end, both those teams simply flashed better up-front firepower.
That was a solid result for the ‘Hogs who also took down a rising Ole Miss group. It was a race that likely acted as a spark, but it was also not something that we could get overly excited about. After all, the field sizes (and racing distances) would look very different throughout the rest of the season.
The Razorbacks continued on to the South Central Regional XC Championships where, in hindsight, they put forth arguably their season-best performance. The ‘Hogs won their region and punched their ticket to the national meet by defeating Texas, a team that went on to place five spots ahead of them at the NCAA XC Championships.
Of course, the bigger priority was what lied ahead.
Unfortunately, any momentum that Arkansas built up mostly evaporated in the final race of their season. And no, it's not like they completely fell apart at the NCAA XC Championships, but most of the Razorbacks’ performances left something to be desired.
Kiprop peaked perfectly for the postseason and validated his potential with a 24th place All-American finish to lead the way. But behind him, Richter was the team's second scorer back in 139th place and nobody else landed among the top-150. It all added up to a 23rd place team finish which wasn’t awful, but it didn’t meet Arkansas’ expectations or history.
* * *
While they don’t boast 100% continuity, the Razorbacks enter this season with about everything that they could ask for in order to improve upon last year.
First and foremost, Kiprop returns as the team’s unquestioned top runner.
Arguably the best development of 2022-23 for Arkansas was Kiprop’s evolution into a true distance star and a worthwhile leading man for a team that historically holds ambitious goals and expectations. He finished as a top-25 cross country All-American in the fall and recorded a top-eight All-American finish in each of the next two seasons on the track.
When all was said and done, Kiprop capped his sophomore campaign with PRs of 7:53 (3k), 13:24 (5k) and 28:00 (10k). Our preseason TSR #16 runner’s relative youth suggests that he has even more upside to tap into. While any improvement on his national meet performance from last fall would be welcomed, a top-10 finish isn’t out of the question for Kiprop.
And more importantly, the refinement that we saw from him as far as reliability and tactics are concerned was arguably the most impressive aspect of his winter and spring campaigns.
However, Arkansas’ biggest question mark throughout last fall was who their second scorer would/could be. Luckily, the introduction of Kirami Yego, a top transfer from South Alabama, should ease those concerns.
Yego, who is ranked at TSR #28 in our preseason individual rankings, was an All-American on the grass last fall after a dominant regular season. Then, he backed up that breakout season with new PRs of 13:34 (5k) and 28:22 (10k) and finished 11th in the 10k at the 2023 NCAA Outdoor Championships.
There aren’t many teams, especially those outside of podium contention, with secondary scorers as accomplished as Yego. He is one of the most proven additions for any team that is building through the transfer portal this year, offering an immediate injection of scoring potency.
The introduction of this former mid-major ace gives Arkansas another infusion of low-stick scoring, but also alleviates some of the stress on the Razorbacks' middle-lineup scorers.
That, in turn, should allow Elias Schreml, Arkansas’ most consistent secondary scorer last fall, to build on the flashes of lead scoring potential that he displayed. In theory, he should be able to establish more consistency with less pressure on his shoulders.
And at the very least, he offers great stability at the third or fourth positions of this lineup.
The German middle distance runner led the way for his squad at the Cowboy Opener with a sub-15:00 (5k) effort on the grass. If you wanted to argue that his success in that meet stemmed from it being closer to his optimal racing distance, then Schreml silenced that critique with his performances throughout the rest of the season leading up to the national meet.
The Arkansas veteran placed 10th at both the Weis-Crockett Invitational and the SEC XC Championships before snagging a bronze medal on the regional stage.
Unfortunately, Schreml slipped outside of the top-200 at the cross country national meet. His 201st place result didn’t match the success that he enjoyed over the 10k distance just one race prior, but it aligned with the learning curve that we should have expected in his first full NCAA cross country season.
For a guy who ran new PRs of 1:49 (800), 3:39 (1500) and 13:43 (5k) in the months after, we aren’t worried about Schreml’s progression or high-level potential. An All-American finish seems like too lofty of an expectation for this fall, but it may be fair to suggest that a top-80 result wouldn’t be a surprise.
Any questions about his ability to toggle between distances are mostly unfounded, and all Schreml needs now is a strong performance on the biggest stage.
* * *
Those three men are expected to be the lead scorers of this team -- and there may be one other man who could work his way into a low-stick role by November. But before we get to him, let's talk about Arkansas' supporting cast.
We now come to Myles Richter who returns to this team with experience and reliable scoring, even if it appears he’s past the point of significant year-over-year progression.
The Texas native never had a truly poor race in 2022. He was the team's second scorer at the national meet and third scorer at the SEC XC Championships for the Razorbacks last fall. All Arkansas realistically needs from him is to replicate, or perhaps slightly improve upon, his 139th place finish at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships.
Beyond him, Ben Shearer has the potential to be a scoring constant. The former blue chip recruit showed progression during the winter and spring months with marks of 3:42 (1500), 7:54 (3k) and 14:07 (5k). Plus, his 155th place result at last year’s national meet was not a bad result for a redshirt freshman.
However, the biggest x-factor on this team, depending on what you think Elias Schreml is capable of, is someone who spent last year in Fayetteville, but did not race for the ‘Hogs.
I am, of course, talking about Lexington Hilton.
The Arkansas State transfer would have been his new team’s second scorer at their home meet last fall. He also displayed his thrilling upside during an indoor track campaign where he ran a 3:58 (mile) and 7:49 (3k) -- those are highly encouraging results.
There was a point in the past year where we viewed Hilton as a legitimate threat to be an individual qualifier for the indoor national meet. However, we never saw him finish a race after those impressive debuts and he now enters this season as a considerable question mark.
If he can replicate what we saw from him the last time that he raced a full cross country season (finishing 105th at the 2021 NCAA XC Championships), then he’ll be a massively valuable addition for Arkansas.
And if Hilton can sustain the progression that we saw from him during the winter months and pair himself with Schreml as a quasi-low-stick, then Arkansas could scare top-10 status at the national meet.
Beyond those six men, Josh Shearer projects to have a spot in the varsity lineup yet again. Other names like Ruben Reina, Tommy Romanow or Jack Williams have talent, but all are more slated for the middle distances than the 10k on the grass, and it doesn't feel like any are ready to slot into Arkansas’ varsity lineup based on what we’ve seen so far.
Ryan Murphy and Jacob McLeod, two veteran lineup mainstays, have both graduated.
* * *
The Razorbacks haven’t exactly dominated domestic recruiting the past couple of years, particularly after landing Ben Shearer and Reina in 2021, which makes them relatively thin beyond their projected lineup.
Yes, Arkansas’ biggest question mark entering this fall may be depth, but not necessarily among it's projected top-five scoring group. If this team wants to go beyond our current expectations, then they can't have anyone sustain an injury or have an "off" day.
We also don't know if certain men will translate their recent success to the grass. And as we saw at times last fall, a few of these Arkansas runners battled with inconsistency.
Even so, a more strongly-defined lineup structure should be one of the Razorbacks' greatest strengths this year. Kiprop and Yego are genuine low-sticks, Schreml and Hilton can be strong middle-lineup options (and potentially more) and Richter and Shearer are reassuring backend contributors.
The Arkansas men probably won’t be back on the podium in 2023 like they were in 2020 and 2021. They should, however, improve on last year's results and come closer to returning to that top level.
And in a deep, but relatively wide-open SEC, Arkansas can reclaim its conference supremacy if everything comes together.
