TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Women): #20 Villanova Wildcats

Written by Scotty Loughlin and Garrett Zatlin

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The 2021 version of this Villanova team was fascinating.

They had one of the better scoring trios in the country, but their lineup held plenty of scoring vulnerability as well. The Wildcats proved to be nationally competitive at Paul Short, but then faltered a bit in their ensuing meets. The veterans on this squad provided great scoring stability, but the youngsters clearly needed more experience.

However, in 2022, this team returns six women from their top-seven, including all five scorers depending on the meet that you're looking at.

And if there was ever a time to buy stock in the Villanova women, now would be the time.

* * *

After staying local at the Main Line Invitational to shift from summer training to collegiate racing, the Wildcats took on a competitive field at the Lehigh Paul Short Run for their first 6k effort of the 2021 season.

There, the Villanova women faced a very strong Northern Arizona squad as well as highly respectable programs in Georgetown, Utah State and Adams State. In simple terms, the Wildcats' first true test of the 2021 cross country season was going to be far from easy.

But when the results were tallied, the Villanova Wildcats ended up tying with the Lumberjacks at 85 points, although they would settle for a 2nd place finish due to a tie-breaker. In that race, the Wildcats had, without question, the best scoring trio in the field. The 1-2-3 punch of Lydia Olivere (3rd), Sadie Sigfstead (5th) and Maggie Smith (6th) gave Villanova lethal scoring potency that couldn't be matched by any other program.

However, from there, Villanova's fourth and fifth runners faded. Both Kendra Lewis and Anna Helweigh finished 35th and 36th, respectively. And while that scoring gap wasn't ideal, a pair of top-40 finishes kept the Wildcats' team score within a reasonable point total.

But arguably the most impressive takeaway from that race was that Villanova defeated the Georgetown Hoyas, a group that would go on to dominate both the BIG East and the Mid-Atlantic region. Wins over Utah State (eventual national qualifiers) and Adams State (eventual D2 national champions) was also extremely encouraging.

While Villanova certainly had a lot to be happy about going into the latter portion of their season, their next race would prove to be an underwhelming one.

The Nuttycombe Invitational was a rough day at the office for the Wildcats (and many other teams), as they finished 20th overall, nine points behind West Virginia and 10 points ahead of Gonzaga.

The great scoring potency that we saw at Paul Short proved to be far more limited in a much more competitive Nuttycombe race. Sigfstead's 36th place finish was very encouraging and Olivere's 57th place finish was solid as well. Maggie Smith held her own with a 77th place finish.

However, the gaps within this scoring five began to widen after those three. The final two scorers in this lineup would place 136th and 227th overall, leading to runaway inflation of Villanova's team score.

It was a similar story at the BIG East XC Championships where the Wildcats placed 4th as a team. Once again, the trio of Olivere (2nd), Sigfstead (5th) and Smith (14th) carried the weight of this lineup, putting together the second-best scoring trio in the field.

But ultimately, 26th and 33rd place finishes from the 'Cats final two scorers put this team 10 points behind UConn and two points ahead of Providence.

We didn't see much change at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships where Villanova held their own and placed 3rd overall, once again carried by their top-three runners. However, in a brilliant stroke of Kolas luck, the Wildcats advanced to the national meet, riding the high of their Paul Short performance.

Going into the national meet, it was clear that the success of the Villanova women would rest heavily on the shoulders of their first, second and third scorers.

And sure enough, that was the case. Olivere, Sigfstead and Smith would all finish in the top-100, but Sigfstead was the top scorer in 93rd place. After those three, Villanova had no one else in the top-220 overall spots, forcing the Wildcats to finish 27th overall.

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The end of the Wildcats' 2021 cross country season was likely not what they wanted. After showing so much potential at Paul Short, there was high optimism for this team which was never fully delivered on.

But in 2022, this team has the opportunity to bring back the heart of their roster and take the next steps towards finishing in the top-half of the NCAA XC Championships.

And the best part? We have to reason to believe that their backend scoring will be noticeably better over the next few months.

However, let's first start with the main scoring trio who will be leading this group in 2022.

Lydia Olivere enters her final cross country season with the most experience and postseason success of anyone on this roster. The Wildcat ace has a full medal set to her name from the BIG East XC Championships, earning gold in 2019, bronze in the winter of 2021 and silver in the fall of 2021.

Though Olivere has continually imposed her will at the conference and regional level, her results have been mixed in national-caliber fields. She boasts an All-American finish (29th place at the 2019 national meet), but she has also had a few "off" races at Nuttycombe.

But even if Olivere ends up replicating her 2021 performances later this fall, then that would hardly be a bad thing. She was fairly reliable as a top scorer and it's nice to know that she has All-American potential as well.

Luckily, Villanova also brings back the other two runners who complete their "Big Three".

I am, of course, talking about Sadie Sigfstead and Maggie Smith.

Last fall, as a freshman, Sigfstead was respectable at her worst, and absolutely stellar at her best. From the first crack of the starting gun, Sigfstead asserted herself into Villanova’s top-three, showing no issues adjusting to the 6k distance. With top-10 finishes at Paul Short, the BIG East XC Championships and the Mid-Atlantic XC Regional Championships, Sigfstead proved that she could be a true low-stick.

While also putting together a top-40 result at Nuttycombe and a top-100 finish at the national meet, Sigfstead flexed veteran composure on the grass despite her rookie status. If she can be noticeably better at both Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships, then the pressure on the backend of this lineup will ease up, but only slightly.

Then there is Maggie Smith who has been competing for the Wildcats since the 2019 cross country season. However, she still holds multiple years of remaining eligibility.

Of Villanova’s front-runners, Smith was arguably the strongest on the track this past winter and spring, posting encouraging marks of 4:20 (1500), 4:41 (mile) and 9:21 (3k). It would also be foolish to disregard Smith’s consistency on the grass last year which was on par with that of Sigfstead and crucial to the overall success of this roster.

But for as good as those top-three women are, they won't be the focal point of this team in 2022. We all know what Olivere, Sigfstead and Smith are capable of...but what about those final two scoring spots?

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The biggest x-factor for how high this Wildcat team can climb is their final scoring returner from the 2021 national meet: Anna Helwigh.

Despite providing some scoring stability in smaller meets, the gap between Villanova’s third and fourth runners was clearly a major issue for this team throughout last fall. Meets like Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships compounded the Wildcats' limited depth and emphasized a gap that needed to be closed.

But in 2022, Helwigh could end up cutting that gap by at least half...and likely more!

After a breakout outdoor track season which featured a sub-10:00 mark in the 3000 meter steeplechase (9:58), there is no question that Helwigh has reached a completely different (and better) level of fitness.

She was also the 2021 BIG East champion at 1500 meters, an event in which she holds a lifetime best of 4:19.

If Helwigh can translate that firepower from the oval to the grass, then she could strengthen her role as Villanova’s fourth runner. If that were to happen, then we’re looking at a significant reduction in points, potentially up to 100 points at the national meet and likely more than 100 points at Nuttycombe.

That's not just an optimistic outlook, either. That's a very realistic scenario for someone who has a 9:58 steeplechase PR. And if Helwigh delivers on that potential, then our TSR #20 ranking begins to make much more sense.

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Of course, it takes more than just four runners to assemble a complete lineup. And while Villanova's varsity options do feel a bit limited, the upside of this group in 2022 is far greater than what we saw in 2021.

The one mainstay who the Villanova women lose from last fall's scoring lineup is McKenna Keegan who was perhaps the Wildcats’ most noteworthy athlete last year after finishing less than a second away from a national title in the 800 meters at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.

However, despite her elite resume on the oval, Keegan was on the lower side of Villanova’s scoring gap last year in cross country, typically finishing as a backend scorer or as a sixth/seventh option.

With that in mind, the 2022 Wildcats will look to bolster the remaining three positions on their varsity team with a plethora of young talent.

It's a tall task in theory (and in reality), but fortunately for Villanova, they’ll be able to call up Margaret Carroll and Emma McGill, two athletes who were both redshirted last year. Carroll is someone who ran 16:50 for 5000 meters in high school while McGill placed 6th at the pandemic-altered 2020 East Coast XC Championships.

On paper, at least one of those women should crack the top-seven of this lineup. And frankly, it would be surprising if neither Carroll nor McGill ended up as a scorer. Their potential in high school was extremely exciting and one has to think that one of those youngsters could translate that past success to the collegiate level.

We also need to highlight Elizabeth Vaughn and Emily Robinson, two additional youngsters who gained experience racing at NCAA XC Championships during their freshman campaigns last fall.

Kendra Lewis, who showed promise last year as the fourth Wildcat to cross the finish line at Nuttycombe, is another young talent in contention for a varsity spot. While we haven't seen her race since then, one has to believe that she'll simply improve with age. To what extent is our biggest uncertainty.

* * *

There’s a lot to be excited about on the Main Line of Pennsylvania this fall.

But that excitement also hinges on a series of questions.

Will Lydia Olivere replicate last year's strong results? Or will she be closer to her All-American form that we saw nearly three years ago?

Could Sadie Sigfstead and Maggie Smith follow their veteran teammate to a top-60 finish (or better) at meets like Nuttycombe and the NCAA XC Championships?

Is Anna Helwigh going to translate her steeplechase and spring season success to the grass?

Which of these younger distance talents are going to step up and fill-in that fifth scoring spot? And for whoever does, how much can they cut down on the gap between them and the team's top scoring trio?

If only a few of those questions are answered favorably, then the Wildcats should improve upon their 27th place finish at the NCAA XC Championships last year...maybe by a lot!

But if everything breaks Villanova's way this fall, then then you’re looking at a team that could be finishing in the top-half of the national meet come November.