TSR's 2022 Preseason D1 XC Top 25 Rankings (Men): #21 Michigan Wolverines

I'll admit, I have a soft spot for the University of Michigan.

Maybe it's because I've had a few great conversations with Ben Flanagan.

Maybe it's because the team as a whole seems super likable.

Maybe it's because I've visited the campus multiple times and even got to see a Michigan vs Michigan State football game...which the Wolverines lost in dramatic fashion by botching a game-winning punt.

However, maybe the biggest reason why I like the Michigan men is because in 2019, I made an absurdly bold prediction that they would finish 6th as a team at the NCAA XC Championships.

At the time, their team was ranked around TSR #15, so my prediction understandably seemed like a stretch.

But Michigan nearly delivered, finishing 7th overall, just two points out from 6th place Stanford, making me look a genius that I am most certainly not.

In 2022, this could once again be a very competitive Michigan squad, one that appears to have a limited ceiling, but also one that could absolutely blow away our expectations...and this ranking.

* * *

Expectations were high for the Michigan men going into the 2021 cross country season. They returned numerous scoring veterans, their younger guys had gained experience and the performances that we had seen from Tom Brady (the runner, not the quarterback) on the track suggested that he could be a low-stick.

In a small field at the Harry Grove Spiked Shoe Invite, the Wolverines were able to earn a promising win over the likes of Syracuse and Georgetown, beating the Orange by seven points and beating the Hoyas by 26 points.

The Minnesota men, a team that eventually qualified for the national meet, were a distance 4th place.

Long-time veteran Devin Meyrer delivered great scoring as always, earning a 3rd place finish. However, the emergence of Aussie ace Oli Raimond gave the Wolverines a 4th place front-runner to pair with Meyrer.

With Colton Yesney, Joost Plaetinck and Zach Stewart closing out their top-five scoring somewhat quickly, earning finishes of 10th, 11th and 13th, respectively, the Michigan men had to be fairly happy with their overall effort.

On paper, that was an encouraging step in the right direction.

Fast forward to Joe Piane and that momentum only got stronger. The Wolverines wowed the country, earning a monster runner-up result behind only Furman, finishing 21 points behind the Paladins and 27 points ahead of Butler.

However, there was a catch: Michigan didn't have anyone finish in the top-20 individual spots.

Instead, the Wolverines utilized incredible pack-running, earning a compact string of results which included finishes of 24-26-29-33-38 from Meyrer, Stewart, Plaetinck, Raimond and Nick Foster, in that order.

Of course, depth and pack-running has been a marquee attribute in many of Coach Kevin Sullivan's squads. With so many runners returning from previous teams, it shouldn't have been surprising to see the Michigan men rely more heavily on depth rather than firepower.

At the Nuttycombe Invitational, Michigan continued to produce strong results. An 8th place finish in the most competitive regular season cross country meet was very encouraging. And sure enough, Michigan utilized their great pack-running once more.

Well, sorta.

Tom Dodd, the English middle distance runner, stepped up to the longer distance and turned out to be a pleasant surprise, earning a key 35th place finish. Dodd turned out to be key low-stick who gave the Wolverine's a little bit of a scoring edge. From there, Plaetinck, Stewart, Meyrer and Raimond finished 54-60-63-73 in the overall results.

While that wasn't the flashiest lineup structure, it was arguably one of the most effective and reliable scoring groups that the NCAA had to offer.

The BIG 10 XC Championships wouldn't tell us anything new about Michigan. Wisconsin was the clear favorite and that showed in the results by their tally of just 27 points. The Wolverines, meanwhile, earned a very unsurprising runner-up result, beating the likes of Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan State.

Once more, Michigan's depth trumped their scoring potency. They had no one in the top-10 individual spots, but all five of their scorers finished in the top-20.

After qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships out of the Great Lakes region, Michigan was primed to do something special. Much like 2019, their lineup structure was extremely well-balanced and their depth theoretically limited their downside at a meet like this.

Plus, with someone like Meyrer holding a reputation for peaking in the postseason, it was hard to think that this team would have a poor showing in Tallahassee...but they did.

A 25th place finish at the cross country national meet was a clear underperformance for a group that had been so darn good all season long. Their only runner in the top-100 spots was Tom Brady, someone who hadn't started racing until the BIG 10 XC Championships.

Brady's 76th place finish was solid, especially for the long-term, but that result could only do so much in a race like the NCAA XC Championships. No other Michigan runner finished in the top-120 overall spots and their fifth scorer fell outside of the top-200.

But for those who had followed Michigan throughout the season, it was clear that they were so much better than what their national meet result suggested.

* * *

As we look into the 2022 cross country season, it's understandable why some Michigan fans would want this team to be ranked higher. After all, they had great depth last year and were excellent in nearly all of their meets...minus the NCAA XC Championships.

But when you compare the Wolverines' 2022 cross country roster to their 2021 lineups, you begin to see a lot of highly valuable scoring potency leaving the team.

That's because Devin Meyrer, Joost Plaetinck, Tom Dodd and Christian Hubaker are all gone from the Ann Arbor program, at least according to Michigan's 2022 cross country roster.

For a team that didn't have a ton of true low-sticks, or only a few instances of them, losing those first three names as well as backend contributor is rough...really rough.

Dodd was Michigan's top scorer at Nuttycombe, Meyrer was the team's top scorer at both Joe Piane and the BIG 10 XC Championships and Plaetinck was anywhere from the Wolverines' second to fifth scorer last fall, often settling into that third and fourth scoring role.

For most teams, losing those three runners would mean near-devastation.

Of course, most teams don't have the depth and historic development that Michigan does.

Most teams also don't have one of the better distance transfers in the country.

Indiana alum Arjun Jha will be joining the Wolverines later this fall as a graduate transfer, making an interesting switch to his conference rival. And for those unfamiliar with his resume, the introduction of Jha to Ann Arbor is a big deal.

Jha has always been a great cross country runner, but last fall was definitely his best season yet. In 2021, he placed 18th at Joe Piane, 25th at Nuttycombe and 6th at the BIG 10 XC Championships. He also advanced to the national meet, but he would place 176th overall.

Historically, Jha is one of the most reliable and most experienced distance runners in the BIG 10. He has toed the line for four cross country national meets throughout his career, has finished in the top-100 twice and has been a top-15 finisher at his conference meet three times.

Looking at last year's results, Jha is likely going to be the top scorer in this Michigan lineup. And while he is a clear upgrade from the fall 2021 version of Devin Meyrer, he won't completely make up for the entire loss of him, Plaetinck and Dodd.

Luckily, that's where Tom Brady comes in.

It's one thing to have the same name as Tom Brady, the famed NFL quarterback.

It's another thing to have the same name as Tom Brady AND go to his alma mater.

But to be all of that and ALSO be a standout athlete in your respective sport...well, that's just incredible.

None of what I just said has anything to do with cross country, but I couldn't just ignore typing that out.

Anyways, Tom Brady is likely going to be the other front-runner for this team. After a breakout 2021 spring track season, where he ran 28:46 for 10,000 meters, he finished 17th at the BIG 10 XC Championships before placing 76th at the national meet.

Then, on the indoor oval, Brady ran an impressive time of 7:55 for 3000 meters, further marking the improvements that he was making the in the latter-half of his collegiate career.

Together, Brady and Jha make a very solid 1-2 punch. Neither runner is currently favored to be an All-American, but it would be fairly surprising to see either of these men fall out of the top-100 at the national meet come November.

* * *

Jha and Brady will probably be the main identity of this Michigan program during the 2022 cross country season. However, trying to assemble the rest of their scoring five will be an interesting exercise.

The next name who is likely to fit into a scoring role is probably Zach Stewart. He was a VERY consistent contributor for this team last fall. He was always in the middle portion of this lineup and never faltered anymore than his team did.

Stewart is still a few big steps away from being in the Jha and Brady conversation, but he's fairly solid. You typically know what you're going to get from him and he feels almost like a lock to be the Wolverines' third option.

From there, the final two scoring spots will likely alternate between three runners: Oli Raimond, Nick Foster and Colton Yesney.

During the regular season, Yesney was likely the most reliable and consistent scoring of that group. He was 10th at Harry Grove, 48th at Joe Piane and 88th at Nuttycombe. Unfortunately, things fell apart from there as Yesney was 48th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and then 88th at the Great Lakes Regional XC Championships where he would end his season.

There is no question in our minds that Yesney can be (and will be) a valuable top-five scorer for this group in 2022. However, his postseason results weren't ideal, leaving us a little unsure what that means for this fall.

It's a very similar story for Raimond. His regular season performances were super promising, but his postseason results just weren't good. Finishing 50th at the BIG 10 XC Championships and then 208th at the national meet certainly left something to be desired.

But Raimond's performances at Joe Piane (33rd) and Nuttycombe (73rd) are just too good to ignore. This is also someone who ran 3:59 (mile), 7:59 (3k) and 13:57 (5k) this past winter and spring, breaking every major distance barrier by the slimmest of margins.

In theory, the Australian distance runner should have some key momentum going into the fall months.

The final name, Nick Foster, is a tricky name to figure out. He has absolutely shown promise on the grass, placing 38th at Joe Piane and 25th at the BIG 10 XC Championships, but he was also 112th at Nuttycombe and 246th at the NCAA XC Championships.

It should also be noted that Foster ran 3:40 (1500) and 3:58 (mile) earlier this year.

To put it simply, the trio of Yesney, Raimond and Foster all hold one thing in common that most backend scorers in these rankings can't say: they're proven.

But those three were also fairly inconsistent throughout last fall. While there's no question about their abilities and scoring potential, that trio will need to deliver on the right days in order for Michigan to replicate their lineup structure from last year.

* * *

There is a VERY good argument for the Michigan men to be listed in our top-20, maybe even somewhere around TSR #17. And I'll admit, as I'm writing this, I'm questioning whether or not we were too harsh on the Wolverines for their loss of top names.

But this is the point in our rankings where we have to start making tough decisions.

Losing Meyrer, Plaetinck, Dodd and Hubaker is incredibly hard to overlook, especially since most of those men were responsible for the already-little low-stick scoring potency that the Wolverines showed last year.

However, at the end of the day, I find myself getting increasingly more excited about what this team could do. On paper, the Michigan men probably have the most upside of any team relative to their ranking.

And who knows? Maybe by November, I'll be predicting another top-10 finish at the national meet for the Wolverines...