TSR's 2022 D1 XC Top 25 Team Rankings (Men): Update #2

Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
Oct 17, 2022
17 min read

NOTE: These rankings are based on how a team fared throughout the entirety of a season, not just how they ran at the NCAA XC Championships or a singular meet.

KEY

(Unranked):

Was not ranked in our last update.

(#/#):

First number indicates how much the team has moved in the rankings.

The second number indicates where the team was ranked in our last update.

25. Utah State Aggies (Unranked)

One our "Just Missed" teams in our preseason rankings had a really nice race on Friday, snagging a clutch 16th place finish in Madison, Wisconsin. That was a promising result which gave us far greater context about the overall ability of this team that their Paul Short effort didn't exactly offer.

We knew that Camren Todd (26th) was good, but we weren't sure which version of him we would see this season. Luckily for Utah State, it looks like he's returning to top form. And with Yonos Magos (83rd) holding his own, the Aggies were able to close out their scoring with finishes of 106-109-124.

Not amazing, but still fairly solid!

Former All-American Caleb Garnica has clearly not looked like his past self this year, but Utah State has still rallied despite his recent efforts. If he eventually breaks through in the postseason, then the Aggies will be far better than TSR #25 come November.

24. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13 / 11)

Welp...that was bad!

The Bulldogs flat-out struggled at Nuttycombe, finishing 26th overall in a field where they had the potential to be in the top-15. And after finishing 10th at the Cowboy Jamboree with a limited lineup, that seemed like a fairly realistic goal for this crew.

But Gonzaga just didn't have their best day. Almost no one ran well...but there were some positives to take away from this race.

Wil Smith (32nd) had a really solid effort to validate the preseason hype that we gave him. Yacine Guermali (227th) also struggled mightily in what was an uncharacteristically bad day for him. Neither James Mwaura nor Evan Bates ran, leaving Gonzaga with a lot of lost scoring.

If everyone actually runs to their full potential and a full lineup is eventually fielded, then no one can deny that Gonzaga is one of the top teams in the nation.

For now, Gonzaga has done enough to stay around in our rankings. They're certainly not a perfect team, but they are clearly so much better than what Friday's race suggested.

23. Princeton Tigers (-1 / 22)

The Princeton men snagged a fairly easy win at the IC4A XC Championships this past weekend, comfortably taking down Cornell by 27 points, but they fell off a bit at the backend of their lineup. There were roughly three or four guys who should have been higher than they were.

Even so, there's not much to take away from this performance. We'll be fascinated to see what this team does against Harvard in a smaller, more compact field at the Ivy League XC Championships.

22. Washington Huskies (-12 / 10)

Gosh, what a challenging team to figure out.

The Washington men weren't just bad at the Cowboy Jamboree, they were awful. Even so, that was a mid-September race and they didn't have Brian Fay. It was admittedly hard to put too much emphasis on that performance.

And while the UW men were certainly better on Friday, it wasn't necessarily by a lot.

Finishing 15th at the Nuttycombe Invitational is fine, but we've just been expecting so much more from this squad in 2022. Fay (34th) was solid, Isaac Green (52nd) held his own and Luke Houser (73rd) was at least a decent-enough third scorer.

But with the final Huskies finishing 114th and 128th overall, there was only so much scoring support available at the backend of this lineup.

There is still greater scoring potential within this team, and a couple of guys can likely be better, but it's admittedly hard to imagine Washington ending up as the same top-10 team that we thought they would be during the summer months.

21. Virginia Cavaliers (Unranked)

We figured that the Virginia men would eventually crack our top-25, but we just had to wait until they actually toed the line for a nationally competitive race. And sure enough, they did that this past weekend at the Panorama Farms X23 Invitational (which took place on their home course).

Despite Wake Forest earning a somewhat comfortable 21-point margin of victory, the Cavaliers still down a slew of teams including Texas, Charlotte, Eastern Kentucky and Cal Poly. Sure, it wasn't the most top-heavy field ever, but it was still plenty deep.

Justin Wachtel (6th) continues to emerge as more of a low-stick rather than middle-lineup scorer. However, it's the overall depth and cohesive pack-running of this group that has allowed them to standout in 2022.

The combination of Rohann Asfaw, Gary Martin, Will Anthony, Wes Porter and Yasin Sado went 15-16-17-18-19 in the overall results on Saturday, giving the Cavaliers a legitimately complete lineup through six runners.

It's really hard to dislike this group. They (potentially) have a low-stick in Wachtel, they've flexed some of the better depth in the country (which is not something that we could say about this team last year) and there are still a lot of guys who could be better in the future.

We still need to learn more about this team, but they're pretty darn solid.

20. California Baptist Lancers (Unranked)

Much like the Virginia men, we figured that the California Baptist men would eventually crack our rankings. But after Saturday's race at Pre-Nationals, where the Lancers finished runner-up to Montana State by a single point, we feel like a TSR #20 ranking is appropriate.

Said Mechaal (6th) continues to be a much better low-stick than some people realize, Giedrius Valincius (9th) had a much better race than he did at the Griak Invitational and Florian Le Pallec (11th) is probably one of the most underrated middle-lineup scorers in the NCAA right now.

With Arturs Medveds (19th) and Matias Reynaga (23rd) closing out this scoring group on Saturday, there is clearly a TON of value throughout this lineup. On paper, they have a nice balance of fringe low-sticks and a solid supporting cast.

Now, admittedly, the only teams of note that the Lancers have beaten this season are Butler, Arkansas and Colorado State. Those are solid groups, but we're still looking for CBU to earn a marquee win over a top team.

But given how good we believe Montana State to be, finishing one point behind the Bobcats effectively puts the CBU men at TSR #20 in our rankings.

19. Montana State Bobcats (+2 / 21)

Well, I thought Montana State would win Pre-Nationals, and they did, but I didn't at all think that it would be as close as it was.

Despite a narrow one-point victory over California Baptist, the Montana State men continue to validate their exciting potential that they flexed on the outdoor oval.

Duncan Hamilton's win on Saturday was everything that we were hoping to see from him this fall, Matthew Richtman's 4th place finish was better than expected, Ben Perrin's 8th place result probably makes him one of the best third-scorers in the NCAA and Levi Taylor's 18th place finish was at least a "good enough" performance.

But the depth that we saw from Montana State at Joe Piane wasn't there on Saturday.

Rob McManus (35th) was fine this past weekend, but he was probably someone capable of being in the top-25. It's similar story for Cooper West (50th) who probably could have finished in the top-35.

And yet, in the end, Montana State still came away with the win. So if the Bobcats are able to have a noticeable scoring drop-off and still take down some nationally competitive teams, then I'm not sure how they don't improve in our rankings.

18. North Carolina Tar Heels (-1 / 17)

I don't want to make it seem like North Carolina's 14th place finish at Nuttycombe was bad, but it felt like they had room to be better than they were. On paper, this team should have beaten NC State and Oregon.

Still, it's not like they were terrible.

Parker Wolfe (6th) looks like he'll eventually contend for an individual national title in the next year or two. He is so, so, so good and just a thrilling runner to watch. It was also nice to see John Tatter (64th) and Marshall Williamson (71st) provide stability in the middle of this lineup.

But with no other Tar Heel in the top-115, the men from Chapel Hill could only finish so high in these results.

The good news is that UNC will likely be better when Patrick Anderson is firing on all cylinders. The Tar Heels' second low-stick didn't have a great day, but if he did, then this is likely a top-10 team on Friday.

So then how do we rank this team? We think that they can be significantly better, but is it fair to rank what we think over what we've seen?

I don't have a good answer for that.

17. Oregon Ducks (Unranked)

Kudos, Oregon! We doubted you, but you still proved us wrong.

Coming into this season, I was majorly worried about the Ducks. They lost so many high-impact veteran scorers, their lineup as a whole was super inexperienced and we weren't even sure if Aaron Bienenfeld was going to return.

But on Friday, the Ducks snagged a huge 12th place finish to let the country know that they are, in fact, still one of the better teams in the country.

Bienenfeld (24th) probably could have been a bit better on Friday, but seeing his supporting cast finish 75-87-89-94 in the overall results was outstanding. Together, the Ducks looks like they have a complete lineup that can run as a cohesive unit and limit excessive scoring.

Now, admittedly, people may look at this ranking and wonder why Oregon is "only" ranked at TSR #17. But I think we just want to see a bit more.

The other teams ahead of them in these rankings either beat the Ducks at Nuttycombe or, if they didn't (which only applies to Syracuse), then those teams have simply been better throughout the season as a whole.

Still, few teams in our rankings have the same upside that the Oregon men do in 2022.

16. NC State Wolfpack (+8 / 24)

We said not to panic when the NC State faltered to 9th place at Joe Piane...and we were right!

The Wolfpack were so much better on Friday than they were in South Bend, Indiana, finishing 10th in that field. It's amazing the difference that one runner makes.

The return of Robinson Snider changed the entire scoring structure of this varsity group. Brett Gardner (48th) continues to be great, Ian Harrison (53rd) had a really nice outing, Snider (72nd) returned to this lineup to fill a massive gap and Ian Shanklin (79th) was solid on Friday despite having the capability to be SO much better.

Their fifth and final scoring spot (115th) still needs to be cleaned up, but we haven't even seen Hannes Burger race yet (which is both concerning and encouraging).

Despite their excellent performance, we do have to ensure that we don't rank NC State too high. Their Joe Piane performance does hold them back from a top-15 spot at the moment, but a strong showing at the ACC XC Championships could change that.

15. Alabama Crimson Tide (+1 / 16)

There's not a whole lot to talk about here. The Alabama men took care of business on their home course this past weekend against a field that they should've defeated with ease -- and they did.

Victor Kiprop, Eliud Kipsang and Hillary Cheruiyot went 1-4-5 in the overall results while Jacob Harris was a VERY pleasant surprise in 7th place! I have no idea how that performance will translate to larger fields, but that was very encouraging to see.

Jacob Wiggers (17th) was still a bit further back than preferred, but he closed out Alabama's scoring and the Crimson Tide took home a win over a respectable North Florida squad by 60 points.

14. Syracuse Orange (+4 / 18)

The team that I had the most concern about when it came to consistency this season has turned out to be one of the most consistent teams in the NCAA over the last two-ish months.

The Syracuse men may have faltered behind NC State and Oregon at Nuttycombe this past Friday, but they were still really solid and have shown that they can be competitive in numerous races this fall.

They beat Butler in an early-season rust-buster, thrived at the Cowboy Jamboree with an 8th place finish and just finished 13th at Nuttycombe.

Nathan Lawler's 27th place finish on Friday was huge, especially for a team that we knew was deep, but questioned if they would have a true low-stick. Meanwhile, Noah Carey (67th) had one of the better cross country races of his career while Nathan Henderson (86th), Assaf Harari (92nd) and Sam Lawler (99th) closed out the scoring.

This team doesn't have a lot of flashy scoring, but they don't appear to have any true lineup deficiencies which is the most important development. And when you consider that both Nathan Henderson and Paul O'Donnell can be better in the future, then it's hard not to view this team as a top-15 program.

Despite finishing behind a few teams that they are now ranked ahead of at Nuttycombe, few programs have been more consistent this season than Syracuse -- and I'm not sure I would have expected to say that about them coming into 2022.

13. Tennessee Volunteers (+2 / 15)

The Tennessee men have not raced since our last update.

12. Portland Pilots (+2 / 14)

An 11th place finish at Nuttycombe was roughly on par with our expectations and for the most part, the top-four Pilots in this lineup ran up to their potential on Friday.

Matt Strangio (38th) is inching closer to that true low-stick role and Bradley Peloquin (43rd) continues to quietly offer really valuable scoring. With Princeton graduate transfer Jakob Kintzele (65th) and long-time veteran Zak Kirk (82nd) holding their own, the first four scoring spots of this varsity group looked outstanding.

Now, admittedly, the final Portland scorer to cross the line finished 142nd overall. And while that certainly didn't hurt the Pilots in any dramatic way, there's clearly room for this lineup to improve.

The good news is that steeplechase superstar Estanis Ruiz has yet to debut this season and there are still a ton of options on this roster. Because of that, I see this team improving before I see them faltering.

11. Villanova Wildcats (+8 / 19)

I cannot believe that the Villanova men placed 9th at Nuttycombe despite crucial scorers in their lineup leaving tons of points on the table. We knew that they'd be a major threat after their Paul Short performance, but this was next-level stuff.

Seeing Haftu Strintzos, Jack Jennings and Liam Murphy go 47-50-51 in the overall result was awesome. That's just flat-out great scoring for any team to have. Charlie O'Donovan (84th) held his own and freshman Marco Langon (112th) came through for this team in a major way.

But for as good as those results were, it's hard to think that this was Villanova's best effort.

Strintzos likely could have been a contender for a top-10 spot individually, O'Donovan is probably 10 to 20 spots better than he was on Friday and Josh Phillips had an uncharacteristically bad day. He is usually a top-five scorer.

I don't know if Villanova racing at their absolute best could have taken down a Colorado team on Friday that was over 100 points better than the Wildcats, but it certainly would have been closer if that was the case.

10. Colorado Buffaloes (-4 / 6)

While the Colorado men are fading a TSR #10 ranking, this is not to say that they've been bad -- they're just not the podium contenders that we thought they would be.

At Nuttycombe, Austin Vancil (21st) and Seth Hirsch (22nd) proved to be two huge low-sticks, each having two of the better cross country races of their careers. Those two results, paired with Andrew Kent's 44th place finish, gave the Buffaloes are fairly dangerous scoring trio.

But with Brendan Fraser finishing 62nd and Charlie Sweeney finishing 74th, there just isn't enough scoring support for the Buffs to contend for the other podium contenders around the NCAA.

If Kent, Fraser and Sweeney are simply better in the future than they are now (and they have shown that they can be), then Colorado can make some serious noise. But for now, they are a high-floor team that is still looking for a bit of a spark in the middle and backend portions of their scoring lineup.

9. Wisconsin Badgers (0 / 9)

No surprises here. Seeing the Wisconsin men finish 7th at Nuttycombe falls right in line with our expectations.

Bob Liking (4th) has now firmly entered the elite tier while Jack Meijer (41st) and Charlie Wheeler (42nd) did an outstanding job in their own rights. With Evan Bishop (66th) and Rowen Ellenberg (68th) closing out the scoring much faster than a few other teams, the Badgers had a complete lineup with an elite low-stick scorer.

However, Jackson Sharp didn't race. If he did, then he's likely finishing around where Meijer and Wheeler placed -- maybe even better.

Running so well without a top scorer would usually send the Badgers up one spot in our rankings. However, when you realize that the Wake Forest men were without a top scorer of their own, then it feels like we need to keep things as they are in our top-25 list.

8. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (0 / 8)

The Wake Forest men got the job done at the Panorama Farms XC23 Invitational, taking home a comfortable-ish win over Virginia by 21 points.

Facioni (2nd) was unsurprisingly excellent, but Vanhoppen (4th) continues to be a much better talent than we expected him to be on the grass. Meanwhile, Luke Tewalt (9th) and Joaquin Martinez De Pinillos (11th) continue to offer great value in this lineup.

Ben Mitchell (22nd) closed out Demon Deacons' scoring fairly quickly, but Wake Forest was without Aaron Las Heras in this race. If he was toeing the line, then the men from Winston-Salem would have had a much more convincing victory than they did on Saturday.

7. Air Force Falcons (+5 / 12)

If you're Air Force, then you're likely upset with me right now.

I imagine that Air Force wanted a slightly higher ranking (and understandably so). But just hang tight and allow me to explain.

The Falcons weren't just good on Friday, they were phenomenal.

Sam Gilman (10th) was certainly better than we expected, but his result wasn't outside of the realm of possibility. However, it was the rest of this team that blew us away with jaw-dropping results.

Luke Combs (29th), Ethan Marshall (31st), Ryan Johnson (39th), Scott Maison (40th) and Sean Maison (49th) all had the best races of their lives. Even Bryce Lentz placed 76th! That's a level of scoring prowess and depth that some podium contenders can't boast.

It's hard to put into words just how good this team was at Nuttycombe. We knew that they would be good this season, but we didn't realize that they would be this good. In fact, they didn't even have Nick Scheller in this lineup! He was the 19th place finisher at this same meet in 2021.

But let's remember that Air Force finished a solid, but modest, 9th place at the Cowboy Jamboree. And if these rankings are based on what a team has done throughout the entirety of the season, then we have to factor that last result in.

Because truthfully, nothing that we saw from the Falcons three weeks ago suggested that they'd be four points away from a historical dynasty on Friday.

For that reason, they settle at "only" TSR #7...for now.

6. Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (-1 / 5)

Believe it or not, the Tulsa men had the four-best scorers at Nuttycombe other than Stanford. As a result, they ended up finishing 6th on Friday.

The combination of Michael Power, Shay McEvoy, Isaac Akers and Cormac Dalton went 11-14-18-19, respectively, in what was probably some of the best racing of their collegiate careers, especially for McEvoy.

That group of four was incredible, but this was also what we envisioned for this team if/when everyone ran at their best on the same day.

The problem, however, is that Tulsa's fifth scorer was all the way back in 155th place...and that's not great.

If the Golden Hurricanes' top-four scorers continue to run at this level, then this team will go as far as their fifth man takes them. But at the same time, if I told you that Tulsa wasn't a podium team with four realistic All-Americans, would you believe me?

Honestly, I'm not sure I'd believe me.

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+2 / 7)

This feels like the right spot for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. They may have lost to Air Force on Friday (settling for 5th place overall), but their season as a whole has been a bit better thanks to their win at the Joe Piane Invitational.

And not only were they outstanding at Nuttycombe, but they even left room for improvement.

Seeing Carter Solomon lock-down a monster 9th place finish is huge. After losing so many superstar scorers this past summer, the need for another elite low-stick was very-much needed -- and it looks Solomon is that guy.

Freshman Izaiah Steury (28th) also looks so. darn. good. He's probably going to win our "Freshman of the Year" award, huh? His promising rise this fall completes this lineup in a way that we weren't expecting to see.

Josh Methner (35th) and Kevin Berry (36th) were also really solid on Friday, but their past performances might actually suggest that they can be better, especially Methner. The same goes for Matthew Carmody who wasn't even a scorer this past weekend.

And with Quinn Gallagher (78th) providing better-than-expected depth in the wake of Carmody and Jake Renfree not being scorers on Friday, I don't think I can be critical of this team at all.

The Irish will almost certainly be contenders for the podium come November, especially if everyone actually run at their best on the same day.

4. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (-3 / 1)

Things don't look great for the Northern Arizona men right now.

Nico Young (2nd) and Drew Bosley (5th) are elite low-sticks, but everyone already knew that. It's even nice to see Santiago Prosser (33rd) having a breakout season. However, no one on this team had a good race on Friday...at all.

Theo Quax, Ryan Raff, Brodey Hasty, George Kusche and Colin Sahlman all underwhelmed at Nuttycombe. There were significant lineups gaps throughout their entire top-five and even though Prosser has been great, his 33rd place finish can't fill the third spot in this lineup if NAU wants to seriously contend for a national title.

The Lumberjacks only beat Air Force by four points on Friday, but the Falcons clearly had the better depth which is not something that I thought I would say this season.

Do I think NAU can still win the national title? Yes, I do, mainly because we know that so many of these men can be so much better in future races.

But between the Cowboy Jamboree (where they also weren't amazing) and Nuttycombe, the Lumberjacks have seemingly regressed...and that's not a great sign.

3. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+1 / 4)

Some may argue that the Northern Arizona men deserve our TSR #3 spot and truthfully, I don't think I would argue with those people. Especially since Coach Dave Smith has suggested that one of his varsity runners may not toe the line this fall (although we don't know who that is yet).

But even if the Cowboys lose one standout name from their top-five, then they still have four realistic All-Americans contenders. And after seeing Ryan Schoppe finish 7th overall at Pre-Nationals (while most of the top varsity men sat out), it looks like Oklahoma State has a good enough fifth scorer to keep them in contention with the top programs in the country.

For that reason, they move up on spot in our rankings.

2. BYU Cougars (+1 / 3)

I can't properly express how good the BYU men were on Friday.

Their runner-up performance at Nuttycombe was highlighted by a jaw-dropping 1.9-second time-spread which had Joey Nokes, Brandon Garnica, Aidan Troutner, Creed Thompson and Davin Thompson finish 15-16-17-20-21, respectively, in the overall results.

And what's crazier is that they scored 89 points without their top-two low-sticks, Casey Clinger and Christian Allen! That's insane! Why does it feel like I'm the only one freaking out about how impressive that is?

Now, that said, this performance does deserve some context. I think a lot of people will assume that BYU would have won this race if Clinger and Allen had run...but that still would have been pretty unlikely.

If Clinger had won the individual title at Nuttycombe and if Allen had finished 7th overall, then BYU and Stanford would tie (after displacement) and the Cardinal would still win the tie-breaker.

And truthfully, expecting Clinger to win that race and for Allen to be a 7th place finisher is more on the generous side of expectations of those two men. It's not unrealistic, but it is a lot to ask for.

Regardless, what we can take away from Friday's race is that BYU is very much in the national title conversation with a fully-loaded lineup. While they may not be favored, don't be surprised if they end up winning gold in November.

1. Stanford Cardinal (+1 / 2)

Ky Robinson (1st), Charles Hicks (3rd) and Cole Sprout (7th) are really good at this whole running thing, but I'm not going to sit here and type paragraph after paragraph explaining how incredible they are.

I've done that in pretty much every other article we've ever posted on this site.

But seeing Devin Hart place 13th at Nuttycombe was beyond phenomenal. That result was, unquestionably, the single-best result of Hart's career -- and he's had good some performances throughout his time with Stanford!

That fourth low-stick result more-or-less gave Stanford the win before their fifth scorer even crossed the line. And with Meika Beaudoin-Rousseau finishing 30th overall, there was simply no team that could touch the Cardinal men at Nuttycombe as they won by 35 points.

Is Stanford the best team in the country right now? Yes.

Is Stanford now favored to win the national title in November? Yes.

Is Stanford unbeatable? No.

If the Cardinal are going to win it all this year, then their bottom-two scorers MUST come through. And truthfully, they may have to run as well as they did on Friday if BYU still has more scoring to unleash.

Hart was amazing at Nuttycombe, but was only 75th at the Cowboy Jamboree. We knew Beaudoin-Rousseau was due for a breakout race on Friday, but there's no guarantee that he'll replicate that result in the future. Thomas Boyden and Robert DiDonato were excellent backend scorers for Stanford at the Cowboy Jamboree, but they struggled a lot at Nuttycombe.

Stanford just needs two of their bottom-four scorers to come through in the clutch. And while the odds certainly favor the Cardinal, there's no guarantee that just two of those men will have their best races when it matters the most.

And yet, despite all of that, it's impossible to suggest that, at this moment, any other team in the NCAA is better than Stanford is right now.

ADDED

Virginia Cavaliers

Oregon Ducks

California Baptist Lancers

KICKED OFF

Texas Longhorns

Michigan Wolverines

Charlotte 49ers

JUST MISSED (in no particular order)

Texas Longhorns

Butler Bulldogs

Georgetown Hoyas

Colorado State Rams

Duke Blue Devils

Michigan Wolverines

Iowa State Cyclones

Harvard Crimson

Arkansas Razorbacks