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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2024 John McNichols XC Invitational
- Conor Daly
- Sep 20, 2024
- 9 min read
Written by Conor Day, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
Indiana State will be playing host to this year's D3 cross country national meet. Naturally, that makes the John McNichols XC Invitational a prime venue for many of Division Three's top distance programs to collide in an early-season showdown. In fact, Saturday may feature the most competitive Division Three regular season meet of the entire 2024 fall season!
With the "official" D3 Pre-Nationals meet scheduled for the evening of Friday, October 4th, it seems that many teams have elected to come to see the LaVern Gibson cross country course a bit earlier in their schedule.
So just how good is the competition going to be, you ask?
Well, we’re going to see our TSR #1 and TSR #2 ranked teams face-off on both the men's and women’s sides! Not only is this field top-heavy, but it will also feature immense depth as well. Terre Haute welcomes seven of TSR's top-15 men’s teams and six of TSR's top-15 women’s teams (if you're including our "Just Missed" squads).
It’s going to be as electric of a cross country battle as you’re going to find in September.
NOTE: The Stride Report has been informed that these results will NOT be considered for at-large bids for the 2024 D3 cross country national meet as the meet is scheduled outside of the eight-week qualifying window prior to the national meet.
DISCLAIMER: Author Conor Daly currently competes for Washington U. and was responsible for the preview portion of this article. In an effort to limit bias, editor Garrett Zatlin produced the individual and team predictions for the men's and women's races.
Men’s Preview
As we alluded to, the main talking point in this race is the showdown between our top-ranked D3 squad in UW-La Crosse and our TSR #2 team in Wartburg.
As for UW-La Crosse, they enter the season with plenty of depth on their roster, but we’re going to be most interested to see just how potent their front-runners can be. This firepower is likely what will determine their success in November.
We are, of course, talking about the trio of sub-14:10 (5k) talents in Aidan Matthai, Grant Matthai and Adam Loenser. The first two have had glimpses of stardom over the longer distances with both men receiving All-American honors in the indoor 5k. Grant, in particular, has shown us that he could be part of another tier, running phenomenally at the WIAC XC Championships and the North regional meet last fall.
Loenser is one who has had more success in the steeplechase than the grass, but with (flat) track PRs like his, he holds the potential to be a third low-stick as well. It’s very reasonable to think that, on a good day, the men of UW-La Crosse can put three runners ahead of every other team’s second runner.
The 9th place finisher in the 10k at the outdoor national meet, Corey Fairchild, could be closely behind this leading trio.
But we’re more-so interested to see how sub-9:00 steeplechasers Joey Sullivan, Mason Brown, Elias Ritzke and Jayden Zywicki fare over an 8k on the grass. After all, fitness in the steeple does not always correlate to the cross country course. But if just some of that steeplechasing quartet is close to as good on the cross country course as they are over the barriers and water pits, then UW-La Crosse is going to be extremely hard to beat.
Wartburg, on the other hand, will look to silence the whispers that they are a step behind their Wisconsin counterparts. Lead by Tyler Schermerhorn, an individual contender for the win, this race will be a good measure to see whether he can continue his momentum from his surprising and ridiculously impressive track season.
Schermerhorn should have fellow fringe low-stick and cross country All-American Jacob Green accompanying him in the front pack. That’s not to gloss over a pair of “Honorable Mention” names in our rankings, Sam Schmitz and Jack Kinzer.
Add in three more names returning from last year’s national meet and you have a second team that has a fairly convincing back end in just September. Of course, if the Knights are going to be able to secure the overall win, then they need a few scoring scenarios to break in their favor and for certain men to reach peak prior form.
On paper, those two teams are in a league of their own. But behind them is where we’re going to see tons of other highly regarded teams battle for 3rd place.
Favorites for that spot are Lynchburg and North Central. The former is lead by 14:00 (5k) man Chasen Hunt as well as the 1500-meter national champion (and strong cross country runner in his own right), Sam Llaneza.
Even though they return five men from last year’s varsity lineup, there is still doubt as to whether the Hornets will have enough backend stability to keep keep their national-caliber scoring efforts afloat. With a field of this size and caliber, there’s nowhere to hide if you're limited on depth.
Lynchburg, of course, won’t be without challenges from a North Central squad lead by Emerald (formerly Max) Svienty. With an incredible run at the Live in Lou XC Classic last September, being ready early in the season is no problem for the Cardinals’ top low-stick.
Now-sophomore BJ Sorg looks to take on an increased role for the team while it will be the progression of numerous sub-15:00 (5k) and sub-31:00 (10k) men over the summer that will be telling as to just how good the Cardinals can be this fall. As we discussed in their preseason ranking, it will just take a breakout from a small portion of these qualified men to lift up this team faced with uncertainty.
Dark horses for that 3rd place D3 spot are Washington U., Johns Hopkins and NYU. They’re each lead by national meet qualifiers on the track who should be in the front pack of this race. In fact, both Washington U. and NYU return at least five men from their national meet lineup last fall which, in theory, makes them more stable options. That's something that could benefit them as the scoring on more volatile teams naturally atrophies in a larger, overwhelming field.
Johns Hopkins, on the other hand, will look a bit different this fall, but that’s not necessarily for the worse. The Blue Jays are an unproven, but high-upside, team based on many breakthroughs on the track, a transfer and what looks like Division Three’s best freshmen class at a quick glance.
To quantify that, Johns Hopkins enters the season with six sub-14:40 (5k) men, an 8:51 (3200) freshman and a 4:08 (1600) freshman. While not in contention for the team win this weekend, this is a group to keep on your radar going forward not only for this season, but also for the years to come. Truthfully, in the same conversation with these Division Three teams is Miami (OH). Patrick Willis and England native Chris Perkins aren't necessarily as established as some of the aforementioned low-sticks over the longer distances, but they'll look to lead the way for this group over 8k. If the coaching staff was to un-redshirt some of their talented freshmen, then this team could have the depth to reach as high as 3rd place on a good day.
Other non-Division Three teams of note include Eastern Illinois as well as University of Illinois-Springfield. The former is led by 14:15 and 14:16 (5k) men, Richie Jacobo and Joseph Stoddard, respectively. For the latter, the loss of Ryan Cortland definitely stings, but Saint Martin’s transfer Isaac Cortes has made great leaps and looks to be an effective lead scorer for them.
In terms of the individual battle, in addition to the some of the other names on top-ranked teams we mentioned, keep a lookout for some of the breakthrough stars during the 2023 track season. We’re talking about sub-14:10 (5k) juniors Isaac VanWestrienen (Cornell College) and Nathan Tassey (Roger Williams) who should each finish in the top-10.
Men's Team Predictions
*Predictions via Garrett Zatlin
UW-La Crosse Eagles
Wartburg Knights
Lynchburg Hornets
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
North Central Cardinals
Men's Individual Predictions
*Predictions via Garrett Zatlin
Emerald Svienty (North Central)
Tyler Schermerhorn (Wartburg)
Emmanuel Leblond (Johns Hopkins)
Chasen Hunt (Lynchburg)
Aidan Matthai (UW-La Crosse)
Adam Loesner (UW-La Crosse)
Patrick Willis (Miami (OH))
Grant Matthai (UW-La Crosse)
BJ Sorg (North Central)
Joseph Stoddard (Eastern Illinois)
Women’s Preview
Before we get into the close Division Three matchups in this race, we need to recognize that the University of Michigan is bringing upwards of 15 women to Indiana State on Saturday. And while the ladies of Big Blue aren't quite as formidable as they've been in the past, it's hard to think that they won't be majorly competitive in this field.
Women who the Wolverines will be bringing to Terre Haute this weekend include runners like Samantha Hastie, Mary Carolin Heinen, Rylee Tolson and Penelopea Gordon. In theory, that should be enough for Michigan to secure the overall win, but it's extremely challenging to compare this group to a slew of established Division Three powers.
Beyond the Ann Arbor-based women, the John McNichols Invite will likely be a battle of UAA standouts NYU and U. of Chicago.
Our top-ranked NYU Violets are fairly new to the scene, first qualifying for the national meet in 2022. The loss of standout Grace Richardson hurts, but look for 2023 cross country All-Americans Morgan Uhlhorn and Vivian Kane to replace that presence at the front of the race.
With Kate Cochran and Janie Cooper holding experience at the national level on the track, they add a pair of names that are strong middle-lineup names who most teams would be happy to have as their front-runners. With Lucy Gott just steps behind Cooper last fall and Olivia Jackson placing in the top-110 at the 2023 cross country national meet as a freshman, this stands to be the more complete team, at least on paper.
We’ll be interested to see if the freshman-to-sophomore leap is kind to Uhlhorn and Jackson, which could elevate this already hyper-talented group.
Like the men’s race, there does not stand a clear favorite in the team battle, a message that the U. of Chicago women would like to echo. Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel, arguably the favorite for the individual win, will easily take care of scoring single digits up front.
The Maroons will also field sub-17:00 (5k) talents Estelle Snider and Sophie Tedesco. With both acting as fringe low-sticks, U. of Chicago has some room for error on the backend. Much of that room for error, unfortunately, is eliminated due to the absence of 2023 cross country All-American Elisabeth Camic, who is not on the start list. That adds pressure to the roles of rising star Nora Holmes and their middle distance stars to manage the 6k well enough (which the program has a good track record of) to get the better of NYU and the field.
Beyond that UAA battle are four teams that follow who look to solidify top-10 credentials in the early stages of the fall months.
There could be an opening for the Washington U. women to pick up a 3rd place team finish. With 2022 cross country All-American Katie Rector and three track national meet qualifiers (two in the steeplechase), the Bears could be a bit better than expected if this team is able to operate at their full potential. However, it is fair to say that those three national meet qualifiers on the track have not yet eclipsed that same success on the grass.
We can also look to Wisconsin power UW-La Crosse to field a quietly solid lineup from top to bottom. Katelyn Chadwick and Madelynn McIntyre hold the potential to be lead scorers, while there are realistically an additional seven women who could score for them. And in September, it’s a good problem to have so many rising talents on your roster.
We mustn’t forget the Johns Hopkins women, either. Even after losing their top-four women from last year, it looks to be far from a “rebuilding” year from them. Their lineup is set to feature a lot of new faces, making them one of the more interesting teams in this women’s race to keep an eye on. They’re not a squad that features any individual stars, but are with a handful of reliable distance talents, they seem to be a team with a high floor.
Potentially just as good as Washington U., UW-La Crosse and Johns Hopkins are Division One programs Indiana State and Miami (OH).
Indiana State has a solid 1-2 duo in Emma Gresham and Erica Barker. The real variability in this group will be the three freshmen who contributed to the Sycamore's top-six in their season opener. Miami (Ohio) will also be represented in the top-20 individuals, bringing 16:29 (5k) talent Annie Christie to compete for the win.
We still need to give some love to our “Honorable Mentions” teams that could turn some heads. Don’t be surprised if Wartburg, DePauw or Coast Guard sneak into the top-five among D3 programs.
If one of those teams were to accomplish that feat, then it could very well be Coast Guard. Claire Semerod was nearly a cross country All-American last fall while Paige Phillips holds sub-17:00 (5k) credentials, although the latter hasn’t looked to be at her best in her first two outings.
Of course, that could be a harsh judgement to make in the middle of September, and we recognize that. If these two (as well as their four other varsity returners from last year) are on point, Coast Guard could very possibly vault through our rankings by the end of the weekend.
Women's Team Predictions
*Predictions via Garrett Zatlin
Michigan Wolverines
U. of Chicago Maroons
NYU Violets
Washington U. Bears
Johns Hopkins Blue Jays
Women's Individual Predictions
*Predictions via Garrett Zatlin
Evelyn Battleson-Gunkel (U. of Chicago)
Annie Christie (Miami (OH))
Morgan Uhlhorn (NYU)
Kate Cochran (NYU)
Samantha Hastie (Michigan)
Ellie Meyer (Wartburg)
Rylee Tolson (Michigan)
Mary Carolin Heinen (Michigan)
Erica Barker (Indiana State)
Sophie Tedesco (U. of Chicago)
