PREDICTIONS: 2024 Woodbridge XC Classic

Donald Speas
Sep 18, 2024
5 min read

Predictions & analysis by Donny Speas, additional edits & commentary via Garrett Zatlin

Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen. One of the single-best regular season high school cross country meets of the year is taking place this Friday and Saturday! That, of course is the Woodbridge XC Classic.

This year's rendition of Woodbridge has 15 teams ranked in our TSR Preseason High School Cross Country Rankings (six boys teams and nine girls teams).

Another consistent theme at Woodbridge is the blazing-fast times. The temperate California weather and an absolutely electric environment (which I can personally vouch for) make for a wonderful setup for the nation's top high school athletes to showcase their skills.

Boy's Individual Race (Three-Miles)

Tayvon Kitchen (Crater) - 13:41
Josiah Tostenson (Crater) - 13:42
Evan Noonan (Dana Hills) - 13:42
Owen Powell (Mercer Island) - 13:47
Caden Leonard (Southlake Carroll) - 13:54
Corbin Coombs (Organ Mountain) - 13:57
Maximus Cervi-Skinner (Coeur D'Alene) - 14:04
Jack Paradise (Great Oak) - 14:08
Owen Whitney (Rock Canyon) - 14:12
Bradley Arrey (JSerra) - 14:12

Analysis: This race is incredibly top-heavy with six athletes who have a realistic shot to secure gold on Friday. My personal pick for the win is Crater senior Tayvon Kitchen, who recenlty pulled off an insane double, running 14:31 (5k) and 14:24 (5k)...on the same day. The crazy thing is that he may not even finish as his team's top runner as fellow senior Josiah Tostenson has run 8:39 for 3200 meters and went back and forth with Kitchen as Crater's top runner seemingly every weekend during the 2023 cross country season.

Outside of that Crater duo, there is a large host of athletes who I view as mile specialists going up in distance. Those names consist of Evan Noonan, Owen Powell, and Corbin Coombs. All three young men are more than capable of winning on a great day. Out of that group, I'm most confident in Evan Noonan, as he is the defending Woodbrige champion.

The last athlete to highlight is Southlake Carroll junior, Caden Leonard, who placed 21st at NXN and won the Texas Cross Country state title in 2023. He has been slowly, but surely become a true top-10 threat, nationally, and Friday could end up being a statement performance to validate that suspicion.

Girl's Individual Race (Three-Miles)

Jane Hendengren (Timpview) - 15:32
Sadie Engelhardt (Ventura) - 15:33
Rylee Blade (Santiago Corona) - 15:37
Holly Barker (Trabuco Hills) - 15:40
Hanne Thomsen (Montgomery) - 15:41
Jordan Banta (Air Academy) - 15:45
Sophia Rodriguez (Mercer Island) - 15:56
Alexandra Fox (Flower Mound) - 16:00
Payton Meineke (Riverdale Ridge) - 16:01
Elle Lomeli (Buchanan) - 16:01

ANALYSIS: There are two athletes entered this Saturday who are head and shoulders above the rest of the other athletes in this field. That's not meant as a disrespect to any other of the athletes in this race, most of them are wonderful talents in their own right, but Jane Hedengren and Sadie Engelhardt simply reside in a different tier.

Hedengren hasn't lost a cross country race since November of 2022 and is the defending Woodbridge champion after running 15:35 (three miles) to triumph over the eventual Foot Locker national champion, Elizabeth Leachman.

At this point, nearly everyone knows the talent that Sadie Engelhardt possesses, running 4:08 for 1500 meters this past summer. The question, however, is how well can she translate her fitness to the grass? Luckily for her, the flat and fast Woodbridge course should play to her strengths.

If either of the projected top-two women falter in this race, look for an athlete such as Rylee Blade or Hanne Thomsen to capitalize. Blade was 4th at this meet last year and Thomsen has gone sub-10 for 3200 meters. Both distance stars are tremendously talented and boast great upside.

Boy's Team Race

Herriman Mustangs
Southlake Carroll Dragons
Crater Comets
Great Oak Wolfpack
Buchanan Bears

ANALYSIS: This is Herriman's race to lose. The Mustangs are the two-time defending champions and have looked unstoppable so far this season, picking up wins at the highly competitive Timpanogos Invitational and UIAAA Invite over a handful of ranked teams.

In fact, at that latter meet, the quintet of Micah Tang, Jonah Tang, Noah Manwaring, Tayshaun Ogomo and Eli Jarvis went 1-2-3-4-7 to secure the overall win. Other squads may have stronger low-sticks, but Herriman is simply the more complete team by a large margin.

Don't get any ideas though, as this will be far from a cakewalk for the Mustangs. Southlake Carroll possesses a ton of firepower and they have a massive roster. They're bound to have someone come out of the woodwork and have a big race for them. Caden Leonard is a true low-stick star and the support trio of Blake Bullard, Griffin Cords and Alex Severson are better than some may realize.

Great Oak and Buchanan have both had some good signs during the early season and it wouldn't shock me to see Dana Hills or Rocky Canyon sneak into the top-five. Crater, of course, can't be counted out. Having the best firepower in this field can go a long way and the rest of the team just needs to do enough to get by. I'm not picking them for an upset, but their low-sticks are tremendously valuable.

Girl's Team Race

Buchanan Bears
Air Academy Cadets
JSerra Lions
Santiago Corona Sharks
Fossil Ridge SaberCats

ANALYSIS: Are we in store for a national meet this preview? We very well might be. That's because on Saturday night, we get to see our TSR #1, TSR #3, and TSR #4 teams face-off, a rare treat, especially at the high school level in the middle of September.

On paper, the Air Academy Cadets are the favorites after a strong performance at the Liberty Bell Invite in Colorado, especially with a massive race by junior Jordan Banta who ran a blazing 17:15 (5k) personal best. Expect Banta to be challenging for a top-10 individual spot this weekend and for Tessa Walter to continue being one of the more underrated low-sticks in the country.

Admittedly, the Cadets didn't look their best after losing to our TSR #2 team at the Liberty Bell Invite, but we're confident that multiple key names in their lineup are capable of being better than what they showed. We're still very high on this team.

The next group of schools are the California powerhouse programs, Buchanan and JSerra. While we don't have a ton of of new data on JSerra (they have yet to race in 2024), Buchanan has looked wonderful, dominating the two early-season rust-busters that they've entered.

Don't let Elliana Lomeli "off" day at NXN last fall fool you, she's a true lead scorer who can give this team a low-stick result. Other runners such as Avery Hutchison, Molly Sundgren and Sierra Cornett had fairly encouraging openers and showed promise throughout last year. They may not be low-stick superstars, but they could end up being a bit better than some people may realize.

In addition to the three squads ranked in our top-four, there are a large number of programs looking to make a statement, including (but not limited to): Southlake Carroll, Ventura, Timpview, Santiago Corona, Herriman, Fossil Ridge, Flower Mound and Great Oak.

This is one of those races where simply making the top-five (or top-10) will be a huge achievement.