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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2024 Griak Invitational (Gold Sections)
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 19, 2024
- 8 min read
The Griak Invitational has, historically, been one of the top early-season meets in the NCAA each and every fall. The Minnesota-based venue features rolling hills and a great September-time test for many teams looking to face good, but not overwhelmingly elite, competition.
Admittedly, this year's Griak Invitational is on the lighter side of things. Even so, there were a handful of interesting teams still scattered throughout these fields who we found interesting and wanted to talk about.
Let's break down some of the teams in the upcoming races and attempt to figure out what we can expect from these programs come Friday.
NOTE: Our preview is based on the team entries shown for the Griak Invitational's box assignments. We do not have specific entries regarding which individuals will be racing. Our below analysis that each team will be fielding fully stacked lineups.
Men's Gold Section
We'll admit, trying to figure out who is favored to secure the win in this field is a bit tricky. There are a handful of respectable distance programs scattered throughout the box assignments, but none that we expect to be threats to secure a spot to this year's NCAA XC Championships.
Traditionally, a team like Colorado State would be the focal squad to watch going into Friday's race -- and that might still be the case. However, after a highly challenging 2023 fall campaign, questions remain about what this group will be capable of in 2024.
Thankfully, returners Michael Mooney (14:05 for 5k) and Lars Mitchell (13:54 for 5k and 28:54 for 10k) gives the Rams a very solid pair of veteran scorers to lean on. Chris Henry (14:06 for 5k) could also be a solid support scorer as well.
Pairing those men with a D3 star in Cory Kennedy (via transfer) should, in theory, give this team enough experienced talent to fend off whatever their competition is able to throw their way...right?
Well, maybe not.
The Wyoming men are much better than some people realize. In fact, the Cowboys defeated the Rams in an early-season rust-buster at the tail-end of August over 5000 meters. And while it's hard to draw any major conclusions from that race, it's also hard to forget that Wyoming bested CSU at the 2023 Mountain West XC Championships (easily) and were 26 points behind their conference rival at last year's Mountain regional meet.
The longer the distance, the more it (probably) benefits the strength-based Colorado State men. But after seeing the Rams lose Mason Brown and Tom Oates from last year's squad, Wyoming may actually be favored going into Friday given that they return six of their top-seven (including all five scorers) from 2023.
Jacob White (13:47 for 5k) is sneaky-great runner, although he'll need to replicate his fitness from the spring of 2023 in order to counter the scoring of Colorado State. Mason Norman is an accomplished veteran with solid results as well. Last fall, he placed 31st at Pre-Nationals and 13th at the Mountain West XC Championships. And Ryker Holtzer? Well, he ran 13:48 for 5000 meters this past spring as well as 8:41 in the steeplechase. He was also 23rd at Pre-Nationals last fall.
Gus McIntyre is an underrated support scorer while guys like Asefa Wetzel and Trevor Stephen could be decent reinforcements as well. And on paper, I think Wyoming may actually be the better team despite the strong reputation of Colorado State.
A team like Navy could also be fairly respectable, especially with the 1-2 punch of Murphy Smith and Jackson Nguyen. However, after seeing their showing at the Spiked Shoe Invite, it's hard to say that they'll have enough scoring reinforcements to keep pace with Wyoming and Colorado State.
The Utah Valley men have a few solid names as well, although their projected scoring potency does appear to be as thorough or as proven what Colorado State and Wyoming have. In fact, the Wolverines faded last fall at the Arturo Barrios Invite where they placed behind teams like Ohio State, South Dakota State and Youngstown State, each of which they will face on Friday.
Guys like Austin Hone, Gilbert Olivas and Adam Bunker have had a handful of great moments on the track while sophomore Abdulsalam Farah showed promise as a rookie. Even so, it would take an absolute best case scenario for this team to take down CSU or Wyoming. It's possible, but a lot would need to break in their favor.
Speaking of which, SDSU's Carson Noecker could be due for a monster breakout season. He was a fringe low-stick last fall as just a freshman and performed admirably throughout his 2023 fall campaign. They do lose a key name in Daniel Burkhalter, but returning Cody Larson, Josh Becker and Will Lohr should give this team a fairly solid and balanced core to rally around this fall.
How about Youngstown State? They return six of their top-seven from last fall which includes a lead scorer in Hunter Christopher, a respectable secondary scorer in Ryan Meadows as well as a few high-upside sophomores in Blaze Fichter, Sage Varvo and Owen Brady.
Sure, they're not perfect, but this is a squad that finished 9th at last year's Great Lakes regional meet. They should only be better in 2024 and I could see a scenario where they very realistically place 2nd or 3rd on Friday. However, if they want to win, then they'll need to find far greater scoring potency.
Between Noah Kohut-Jackson, D3 graduate transfer Lucas Florsheim and Emmet Anderson, Minnesota could be somewhat competitive in this field. Don't forget about North Dakota State, either. They bring back five of their top-six from a lineup that actually tied with South Dakota State for the Summit League title last fall (although they lost on a tie-breaker).
Finally, keep an eye on the California men. Between Garrett MacQuiddy and Carrick Denker, two top-15 finishers at the 2023 PAC-12 XC Championships, the Golden Bears could potentially crack the top-five.
I would also throw Santa Clara in the mix after seeing how good they were last fall, but the departure of multiple crucial scorers leaves us with tons of uncertainty about their team in 2024.
Men's Team Predictions (Gold)
Wyoming Cowboys
Colorado State Rams
Youngstown State Penguins
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Utah Valley Wolverines
Men's Individual Predictions (Gold)
Murphy Smith (Navy)
Carson Noecker (South Dakota State)
Cory Kennedy (Colorado State)
Jacob White (Wyoming)
Garrett MacQuiddy (California)
Hunter Christopher (Youngstown State)
Lars Mitchell (Colorado State)
Mason Norman (Wyoming)
Ryker Holtzer (Wyoming)
Victor Neiva (North Texas)
Women's Gold Section
On paper, this should be a fairly comfortable win for the Utah Valley women. They are easily the most complete and most accomplished team in the field. Morgan Nokes is a great low-stick and the depth of the Wolverines is far superior to any other distance squad in the field.
You could argue that women such as Caila Odekirk and Ari Trimble have the potential to be low-sticks alongside Nokes this fall. We also can't forget that Abbie Fuhriman was fairly underrated last fall as far as her consistent scoring presence is concerned. The same could be said for Anna Martin and Oakley Olson.
Tack on a promising new addition in Allie Warner and you could argue that our TSR #22 preseason ranking for this squad was actually too low.
Despite being the clear favorites, other schools like Colorado State, Ohio State and maybe even Minnesota will at least make the Wolverines work for gold.
Colorado State is a team that can be found in the "Just Missed" portion of our preseason rankings. They qualified for the national meet last year, but struggled on that stage and have since lost multiple high-impact scorers.
Quinn McConnell is a better lead scorer than some people may give her credit for while Kensey May and Anna Petr have flashed a few moments of great scoring support that the Rams would be happy to have consistently in 2024. The challenge, however, is that they lose low-stick ace Sarah Carter as well as a crucial support scorer in Yasmin Austridge.
There are a handful of very solid names on this roster, but the upfront scoring potency isn't nearly as strong as it was last year and there are multiple questions about the latter-half of this lineup. They'll find a way to remain competitive, but coming within striking distance of Utah Valley is going to be a big ask.
Ohio State, meanwhile, brings a different kind of threat level to this meet.
The Buckeyes struggled last fall due to injuries and illnesses. And for a team that had very limited depth, that made their 2023 fall campaign extremely tricky. Thankfully, they still have an All-American star in Addie Engel who should be favored to win this race as well as veterans Daniella Santos and Andrea Kuhn. The former is a two-time top-70 national meet finisher while the latter was 75th at the 2022 national meet.
It seems fair to say that OSU has the best scoring trio at this meet, although Utah Valley's top scoring trio shouldn't be as far behind as some people may think. Even so, the top-heaviness of the Buckeyes could lead to them putting three women in the top-five in a best case scenario. And if that happens, then the battle for team gold could be much tighter than expected.
Katie Castelli is Ohio State's newcomer from Santa Clara who recently ran 10:27 in the steeplechase. What kind of role could she play on the grass this Friday? We have the same question for Akemi Von Scherr who gained valuable experience last fall after placing 17th at the Arturo Barrios Invite and 82nd at the Virginia Invite.
If those two women come through for Ohio State, then Utah Valley could absolutely be put on upset alert. Of course, that assumes that Kuhn will be back in top form, that we'll see Addie Engel make her season debut this weekend and that we see the best version of OSU's backend scorers.
We don't expect Minnesota to be the same kind of challenge for Utah Valley that Ohio State could be, but the version of the Golden Gophers that we saw at last year's Midwest Regional XC Championships was encouraging.
Yes, the ladies of Minnesota did placed 9th at last year's BIG 10 XC Championships, but they rallied to place 4th at their regional meet. There, Erin Reidy, Ali Weiner and Emma Atkinson went 29-30-36, respectively, while Taylor Kreitinger and Brianne Brewster closed out the scoring going 44-45 in the overall results.
Of that quintet, the Golden Gophers only lose Kreitinger. And while this team still has a lot of work to do, we really like the scoring value that both Reidy and Weiner could bring to the table.
Yes, we will admit that last year's Midwest regional meet was easily Minnesota's best race of last fall. Even so, adding in someone like Zoie Dundon who ran 9:54 in the steeplechase and qualified for the outdoor national meet should bolster this team in a major way. She could give this team a crucial lead scorer to pair with Reidy and Weiner, making Minnesota a slightly trickier group to battle than if you just looked at last year's results.
We also like Montana State a good bit given that they return a sneaky-good scoring trio in Kyla Christopher-Moody, Grace Gilbreth and Alex Moore. The challenge, however, is that they also lose critical support scorers like Emma Tate and Mya Dube.
If you're looking for a deep sleeper team going into Friday, then take a look at the Wyoming women.
Sure, the Cowgirls didn't necessarily stand out in any major way last fall, but they did have a few moments of promise in 2023. Take for instance the Mountain West XC Championships. Yes, they placed 6th in that setting, but they were just four points out from 4th place.
Abigail Whitman was 6th at that meet last fall after placing 23rd at Pre-Nationals. She'll almost certainly be a great lead scorer in this field and likely a top-10 finisher. Kylie Simshauser, meanwhile, was 17th at the Mountain West XC Championships and had a nice spring campaign of improvements.
With everyone else from last year's squad set to return, the Wyoming women should almost certainly be better in 2024. We see them being a top-five team on Friday, although expecting this group to emerge as a legitimate threat to some of the squads that we have already mentioned would require a lot going right.
Women's Team Predictions (Gold)
Utah Valley Wolverines
Ohio State Buckeyes
Colorado State Rams
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Wyoming Cowgirls
Women's Individual Predictions (Gold)
Addie Engel (Ohio State)
Morgan Nokes (Utah Valley)
Daniella Santos (Ohio State)
Zoie Dundon (Minnesota)
Quinn McConnell (Colorado State)
Abigail Whitman (Wyoming)
Andrea Kuhn (Ohio State)
Kyra Christopher-Moody (Montana State)
Ari Trimble (Utah Valley)
Oakley Olson (Utah Valley)
