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PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 Joe Piane Invitational
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 28, 2023
- 13 min read
I've always been a big fan of the Joe Piane Invitational. It doesn't always get the same attention as Nuttycombe, Pre-Nationals and maybe one or two other races, but it has consistently been one of the more competitive meets in the entire NCAA on an annual basis.
And as such, we have decided to send a TSR contributor out to South Bend, Indiana this weekend to cover the men's and women's races! Yes, like a real website would! You can expect to see some video interviews on the site in the coming days, so stay tuned for that.
In the meantime, we wanted to get you primed for all of the exciting racing ahead with an in-depth preview and of course, plenty of predictions.
Let's get started, shall we?
See below for entries
Women's Preview
Alright, so here's the deal: The NC State women are entered in this field...but I don't know if they are favored to win this race.
Based strictly on the entries that we received, the Wolfpack women will be fielding a fairly competitive lineup on Friday, one that features All-American standouts such as Sam Bush and Kelsey Chmiel, the latter of whom could realistically contend for the individual win.
With just those two women, NC State should have no issues being competitive in this field -- or even contending for the win.
Of course, the two most glaring absences from the entries are Katelyn Tuohy and Amaris Tyynismaa, a Wolfpack duo who are listed in the top-10 portion of our preseason individual rankings. No, I'm not concerned by their omissions (it's still September), but this does leave the door open for one or two other teams to potentially snag the overall win tomorrow.
But let's be very clear: It's not like this NC State team is just going to hand the overall win to another program. Outside of Bush and Chmiel, the Wolfpack have some very strong options, many of whom have some scary-good upside.
Grace Hartman is a redshirt freshman who was fantastic as a true rookie this past winter and spring. The Ohio native ran 4:39 (mile) and 15:49 (5k) on the oval, showcasing quick acclimation to the collegiate realm.
Meanwhile, Leah Stephens is a former high school megastar who looked outstanding in her early-season rust-buster, easily cruising past her teammates by a significant margin. Seeing this Seminole-turned-Wolfpack commit entered for this meet likely signals that Coach Laurie Henes is confident in Stephens' fitness and may not need a redshirt season.
And how about Gionna Quarzo? She placed 16th at the ACC XC Championships last fall and has been a national meet qualifier over 10,000 meters. This rising veteran could very easily have an impactful scoring role on Friday.
There are a handful of other NC State women in the entries, but not having key support scorers such as Brooke Rauber and Abby Loveys probably means that the Wolfpack aren't favored to win this race.
So...who is?
In my eyes, it's the Notre Dame women. They are racing on their home course and it also looks like they'll be fielding their full lineup -- or at least, something fairly close to that.
Olivia Markezich is one of the most "sure things" that any team in this field has. Not only did she gain massive momentum on the grass last fall, but she only got better on the oval. In fact, her avalanching fitness peaked in the summer when she ran 9:17 in the steeplechase to finish 4th at the USA Outdoor Championships!
Depending on who you ask, Markezich may be the individual favorite on Friday or, at the very least, a heavy favorite to finish in the top-three.
As for the rest of this varsity group...well, it requires some projection.
We are VERY high on Siona Chisholm this fall, especially after seeing her run 15:37 for 5000 meters on the outdoor oval this past spring. She also finished 7th at the ACC XC Championships before placing 81st at the national meet.
It would not be a surprise if Chisholm was a top-10 runner in this field on Friday, but we haven't seen her consistently race at that high of a level throughout the entirety of a season before (although she was great in the spring). In my eyes, it's hard to specifically pin point what her ceiling is for this exact meet.
The questions don't stop for a handful of other Notre Dame women.
Andrea Markezich had a handful of brilliant moments with the Washington women throughout last year, but can she translate her best performances to a stage like this? Fellow graduate transfer Ericka VanderLende has proven to be a fairly reliable cross country runner throughout her career, but how high is her ceiling? Sophie Novak posted an incredible 9:48 steeplechase PR this past spring, but will the rest of her resume catch up to that extremely encouraging mark?
To be clear, I'm not questioning the talent of these women -- that part is inarguable.
Instead, I'm simply curious as to exactly how good they'll be.
Other women such as Grace Shager, Charlotte Bednar and Erin Strzelecki have either shown us glimpses of exciting potential or, in the latter case, have given us proof that they can be a legitimate top-five scorer for Notre Dame.
Do I know exactly what this team's lineup is going to look like on Friday? No, not necessarily, but I do know that I like their options way more than any other team in this field.
We then come to Alabama, a team that is, in a lot of ways, basically the inverse of the Fighting Irish: A bit more firepower, a lot less depth and more predictability, the latter of which is neither a good or bad thing.
There's only so much that we can say about Hilda Olemomoi. The Crimson Tide star was fantastic last fall, finishing 6th at the NCAA XC Championships after a dominant regular season. She later went on to run times of 8:45 (3k), 15:17 (5k) and 32:05 (10k) while racking up a handful of All-American honors on the track.
As far as pure long distance juggernauts are concerned, Olemomoi is among the very best. She is primed to be a top finisher in this field and it's hard to really argue against that.
Of course, there is far more uncertainty with her teammate, Doris Lemngole.
The Kenyan rookie made waves earlier this summer when her recruitment was headlined by personal bests of 9:35 (steeple) and 14:40 (5k road). And while those times are brilliant, it's hard to know how much stock we should put into those performances. After all, the newest Alabama star seemingly struggled in her lone cross country race that we could find of hers prior to coming to the NCAA.
Even so, after an impressive rust-buster, Lemngole should have no issues emerging as a true low-stick star in this field. She clearly thrives in aggressive and fast contests, something that her surrounding competition and this Notre Dame course favors.
There's very little data on the current freshman, but the data that we do have suggests that she's going to be borderline elite this fall.
But in actuality, it's the rest of this Alabama lineup that fascinates me. Seeing how the Crimson Tide are going to complete their scoring five, and who those women are going to be, is something that will ultimately determine how good this team will be in 2023.
Joy Gill is a high-upside transfer who was great against limited competition last fall. In theory, she is an ideal fit at the third spot of this lineup, although we could see returning veteran Elka Marchan take that role after a great race on this same stage in 2022. McKenzie Hogue, a transfer from Samford, is another name who is expected to contribute to this team, although she'll need to continue making improvements like she has over the past year.
Simply put, this Alabama team is structurally no different than they were last year. The only difference is that they had a ton more firepower in 2022 compared to 2023.
The Florida State women are another team that is ranked, but that was under the assumption that Agnes McTighe and Elizabeth Funderburk would be racing. For this weekend, that is not the case.
The 'Noles will have Alyson Churchill to lead their squad with some exciting low-stick scoring potency. However, more importantly, this squad will also give a few women the opportunity to prove themselves in a strong, but not overwhelming, field.
Also, keep an eye on the Washington State women. They have a much better squad than I think some people realize. They'll need Caroline Jerotich, Cristina Molteni, Alaina Stone Boggs and Neema Kimtai to be clicking on all cylinders, but I think the Cougars have a few fairly decent pieces.
Alright, that's the main gist of what I wanted to ramble about. Here are a few other key things to monitor for tomorrow's battle in South Bend...
After racing at the Virginia Invitational last week, I would be surprised if the Charlotte women or James Madison women actually field a top lineup at this meet on Friday. It's a similar story for Minnesota and the Griak Invitational
The Michigan State women aren't fielding a full lineup -- or even anyone from their top-seven -- but we will get to see Taylor Ewert in her second race of the season after finishing 26th overall at the MSU Spartan Invite.
Montana State's Emma Tate is a graduate transfer from Purdue who qualified for the 2021 NCAA Fall XC Championships, individually. Look for her to potentially play a role somewhere in the top-20 of this field.
The UC-Davis duo of Brianna Weidler and Sierra Atkins just had great races at the Dellinger Invite. In fact, Weidler was a name who we heavily considered for a preseason individual cross country ranking. Don't be surprised if both of these women sneak into the top-10 on Friday.
Keep an eye on Emily Brown (Pitt) and Yasmine Abbes (San Francisco). They've had moments of promise on the track, specifically Brown who ran 10:08 in the steeplechase earlier this year.
Women's Predictions
Teams
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
NC State Wolfpack
Alabama Crimson Tide
Washington State Cougars
Florida State Seminoles
Individuals
Olivia Markezich (Notre Dame)
Hilda Olemomoi (Alabama)
Kelsey Chmiel (NC State)
Doris Lemngole (Alabama)
Alyson Churchill (Florida State)
Sam Bush (NC State)
Ericka VanderLende (Notre Dame)
Siona Chisholm (Notre Dame)
Brianna Weidler (UC-Davis)
Andrea Markezich (Notre Dame)
Alaina Stone Boggs (Washington State)
Grace Hartman (NC State)
Sierra Atkins (UC-Davis)
Leah Stephens (NC State)
Erin Strzelecki (Notre Dame)
Gionna Quarzo (NC State)
Caroline Jerotich (Washington State)
Grace Shager (Notre Dame)
Emily Brown (Pitt)
Emma Tate (Montana State)
Men's Preview
The Notre Dame men come into this race viewed as the clear favorites to secure the overall team victory on Friday...right?
Based on our preseason rankings, the Fighting Irish should have very few issues securing gold tomorrow. They are listed at TSR #7 in our top-25 rankings and no other team in this field came in with a preseason ranking better than TSR #18.
Carter Solomon is a true superstar. He was one of the biggest breakout names of the 2022-2023 academic calendar, providing a massive (and in some cases, much needed) scoring boost to his team. He'll be in contention to snag the overall win on Friday.
After him, however, is where things get less clear. That's because a variety of high-upside youngsters and veteran graduate transfers are expected to be scattered throughout this field.
In my mind, this is the PERFECT race for former Arizona State runner, Vinny Mauri.
The newest Fighting Irish talent is a uniquely versatile talent with a 1:49 (800) PR as well as a personal best of 13:39 (5k). And given how quick this Joe Piane course is, I don't know if there is anyone else in this field with a more ideal skillset for this race than Mauri.
Don't be surprised if he finishes in the top-six on Friday.
Other guys like Tyler Berg, Rishabh Prakash, Joshua Methner, Jake Renfree, Tom Seitzer and Quinn Gallagher are all veterans who, at the very least, have been able to offer highly valuable scoring for the Irish over the last few years.
Berg probably has the least variability in his performances across three seasons and is someone who could be an outside contender for an All-American spot later this fall, although we still need to see how he handles higher level competition on a more consistent basis. Methner and Renfree have both been high-octane All-American talents in the past, but haven't been able to return to that fitness since then.
Methner, however, did show signs of that All-American fitness in a handful of races last fall.
Separately, Ethan Coleman, Daelen Ackley and CJ Singleton are high-upside younger guys who ooze potential. Coleman is someone who, with the ongoing development that he showed as a rookie, could be a legitimate low-stick in his second year with Notre Dame.
Yes, that's a bit of an aggressive take, but there are enough subtle aspects of his resume to suggest that Coleman could eventually reach that point.
In case you couldn't tell, trying to piece together a complete scoring five for the Notre Dame men this fall is a wildly challenging task. But just because we don't know how all of these men are going to perform on Friday doesn't mean that the Fighting Irish won't be great.
Simply put, there are way too many talented options for Notre Dame to not win this race.
Let's move to Florida State, an interesting team that has a completely new look, maybe even more so than Notre Dame.
The introduction of graduate transfers Abdirizak Ibrahim and Ahmed Ibrahim (not related) gave the 'Noles a great 1-2 punch on paper. The former is a true All-American-caliber low-stick while the latter has the potential be a top-10 talent in this field, but has seen some fluctuation in his performances over the years.
Even so, if those two men are healthy, then Florida State looks sneaky-good when paired next to David Mullarkey, a 13:37 (5k) runner who has yet to showcase his talent on the grass.
The rest of this lineup has questions, but at least there's more optimism with FSU's backend scoring options this fall compared to last year. There's decent value with returners like Zach Leachman and Cooper Schroeder as well as newcomers Martin Prodanov and Matthew Neill.
Those latter two men are interesting names to monitor. They don't have to be amazing on the grass, they just have to be good enough and give this lineup some stability that the Seminoles were desperately missing last fall.
Funny enough, the NC State men are very similar to Florida State in terms of their projected lineup structure. The only *expected* difference is that the Wolfpack men seem to have a bit more balance than the 'Noles through their first four runners.
Brett Gardner and Ian Harrison showed exceptional improvement throughout the 2022-23 academic calendar. The former ran 3:58 (mile) and 13:47 (5k) before sitting out during the spring while the latter ran 7:53 (3k flat-track) and 13:35 (5k).
I don't know if either of those two men are going to be All-Americans this fall, but they could both come pretty close -- and that would be considered a win for the Wolfpack. And if I'm making some bold predictions, I could realistically see Harrison being a fringe top-30 finisher at the national meet come November. I think he's going to have a huge breakout year.
Meanwhile, long-time veteran Hannes Burger offers fantastic scoring stability at the middle of this lineup. Admittedly, he is far better in the postseason than in the early portion of the fall months, but this should still be a manageable field for him. It also helps that Eastern Michigan graduate transfer Toby Gualter should offer similar value in terms of stability.
I don't need NC State to blow away their competition on Friday. I do, however, need to see who from this team is going to step up and fill their fifth scoring role. That spot may turn out to be a non-issue, but after a summer of uncertainty, Joe Piane should offer us some clarity.
The Alabama men are such a head-scratching team to analyze. They have three star-caliber distance runners, but limited depth after that trio. Of course, this is a story as old as time when it comes to the Crimson Tide's cross country team.
Victor Kiprop is likely favored to win the individual title. Meanwhile, Hillary Cheruiyot, depending on which aspects of his resume you like, is likely someone who you would predict to be in the top-10 of a field like this (he was 6th at this meet last year).
Admittedly, I do have questions about Eliud Kipsang, someone who I have constantly said is one of the most naturally gifted distance runners in the NCAA.
However, when it comes to consistency, this Crimson Tide star has struggled as of late, partially due to some injuries that he experienced over the last 10 months (which is somewhat understandable for a guy who is 6'5" and races like he does).
In theory, this course is perfect for Kipsang. He's an aggressive, all-out runner who specializes in the mile -- and that speed often translates incredibly well to this ultra-fast course. He also placed 3rd at this meet last fall.
Do I love how his 2023 outdoor track season ended? No, it wasn't great and it was fairly abrupt, but his raw talent alone makes it hard not put Kipsang near the top of this field...
Oh, and the rest of this team? Well, as always, we just need to see who is going to make up the backend of the Crimson Tide's lineup. They should be just as good as last year, but the biggest question is if they can get any better and consistently close the middle lineup gaps.
Let's wrap up with Montana State and Furman, two teams that I have very easily talked myself into liking quite a bit this fall.
The Montana State men lost star ace Duncan Hamilton from last year's team. That's a crushing blow given how top-heavy the Bobcats' lineup was in 2022. It also doesn't help that Cooper West, a key middle lineup contributor who offered scoring stability, is also gone.
The good news is that Rob McManus had a breakout year in the steeplechase and can theoretically offer more potent scoring next to established veterans such as Ben Perrin, Matthew Richtman and Levi Taylor.
It wouldn't surprise me if the Bobcats had three men in the top-20, but depth is something that remains a bit of question mark. Harvey Cramb, Sam Ells and Owen Smith are key names to look to as Montana State looks to put together yet another complete top-five.
As for Furman, we know how good Dylan Schubert is -- he feels like he has an outside chance of taking home the individual win on Friday. And while I like a lot of the other Paladins in these entries, I can't help but also have a handful of questions for them.
What is Cameron Ponder's fitness like after remaining out of competition for so long due to an injury (and ensuing surgery)? Brayden Seymour was a stud at the prep level, but what should we expect from this rookie in a field like this? Carson Williams was excellent on the track this year, but didn't fully translate that talent to the grass last fall. Will that be different in 2023?
But...what if all of those puzzle pieces come together for Furman?
Truthfully, that would be asking a lot, although I do think there is a somewhat realistic avenue for the Paladins to crack the top-five tomorrow.
Alright, let's wrap this up with some quick points...
Other teams to watch in this race include Charlotte, Southern Utah, Michigan State and maybe a limited Michigan team. However, the Charlotte men just ran at the Virginia Invitational, so I would be a little surprised if they actually field a top lineup on Friday. Also, don't sleep on Southern Utah, they could pull off a few upsets if certain teams aren't careful.
Name to watch who I did not mention: Chandler Gibbens (Kansas), Max Murphy (Iowa), Jack Miller (Pitt), Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte), Travis Feeny (Southern Utah), Bradley Makuvire (Tulane), Jack Jennings (Tulane), Brian Masai (Akron) and Bronson Winter (Weber State).
From that above group, Scudder is the most proven, Gibbens is the most interesting, Masai has the most upside and Makuvire is the most underrated.
Men's Predictions
Teams
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Florida State Seminoles
NC State Wolfpack
Alabama Crimson Tide
Montana State Bobcats
Individuals
Victor Kiprop (Alabama)
Carter Solomon (Notre Dame)
Dylan Schubert (Furman)
Ian Harrison (NC State)
Abdirizak Ibrahim (Florida State)
Vinny Mauri (Notre Dame)
Brian Masai (Akron)
Hillary Cheruiyot (Alabama)
Eliud Kipsang (Alabama)
Nickolas Scudder (Charlotte)
Josh Methner (Notre Dame)
Ben Perrin (Montana State)
Brett Gardner (NC State)
Chandler Gibbens (Kansas)
David Mullarkey (Florida State)
Matthew Richtman (Montana State)
Tyler Berg (Notre Dame)
Ethan Coleman (Notre Dame)
Bradley Makuvire (Tulane)
Rob McManus (Montana State)
