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First Thoughts: 2023 Virginia Invitational
- Admin (Garrett Zatlin)
- Sep 23, 2023
- 25 min read
Updated: Sep 24, 2023
Photos via David Hicks (more women's photos are currently being processed)
Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen! The Virginia Invitational is all wrapped up, just in time to get all of the athletes home before the east coast hurricane intensifies. And while today's conditions weren't exactly pristine, we still saw plenty of fascinating results.
Below, I went through every team from the men's and women's races to offer some thoughts and insights. Naturally, that takes a lot of time, so let's not delay any further and get straight into the analysis!
Men's Race
1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (71 points)
Drew Bosley was the individual winner of this race...and it's hard to be surprised. All of our D1 contributors predicted that Bosley would win and that was the case, taking down Parker Wolfe by three seconds.
Of course, that result, as impressive as it was, wasn't surprising.
Theo Quax, however, was probably the biggest reason why NAU won by as much as they did. A 6th place finish is huge for someone who had yet to fully translate his track success to the grass. This is arguably the best cross country performance of his career and it makes him a legitimate low-stick if he can replicate that result in the future.
Santiago Prosser (17th) was pretty much on par with expectations, finishing six spots back from where I had predicted him to place. But after Prosser, I figured that we would see a significant drop-off to the rest of the lineup, barring one exceptionally great performance that caught us off guard.
But in actuality, every other Lumberjack was excellent. Kang Nyoak (22nd), Corey Gorgas (25th) and Colin Sahlman (33rd) offered tremendous depth as each runner had what was debatably their best-ever cross country races.
And for a team that didn't have Nico Young, Aaron Las Heras or Brodey Hasty, this was a surprisingly dominant performance. Of course, it should be noted that most of the other top teams in this field weren't fielding top lineups.
A fun observation from friend of the site, David Hicks: "While other teams go out and circle up, NAU stays in their box and each member hugs each other before they start. Found it super interesting."
2. BYU Cougars (101 points)
For a team that didn't have Casey Clinger, Davin Thompson or Kenneth Rooks, this was a really nice result for the Cougars. I figured their depth would still be reflected in the Stanford brothers as well as a few others -- and I was right!
Joey Nokes (4th) is just so. darn. good. and Aidan Troutner (14th) pretty much matched my expectations. And while it would've been nice for this team to have more firepower, I wouldn't really be worried about that moving forward.
Creed Thompson (26th), Jacob Stanford (27th) and Garrett Stanford (30th) eliminated any excessive point scoring concerns and gave the Cougars a complete top-five void of any flaws.
In reality, none of these results are super surprising and it's hard to find any legitimate deficiencies with this group. BYU may have seven All-American contenders (yet again) once we reach November.
3. North Carolina Tar Heels (157 points)
Sure, UNC's race may not have played out exactly as I predicted it, but what we saw from the Tar Heels on Saturday morning largely matched our expectations.
Parker Wolfe (2nd) is becoming more and more dangerous, Alex Phillip (8th) has instantly evolved into an All-American candidate at the D1 level and Ethan Strand (20th) was able to translate roughly 85% of his success from the oval to the grass.
On paper, that was a fantastic top-three for UNC. We had some questions about how certain men would perform this fall after having success in different divisions, schools and/or seasons. But so far, the transition looks smooth. That's especially true for Indiana graduate transfer Jake Gebardt (37th) who gave this team a high-impact fourth scorer.
But from there, this team saw a significant scoring drop-off. Colton Sands (91st) held his own to close out the scoring, but every other Tar Heel was way back from the top group. For a team that is trying to get on the podium this fall, their backend will need to grow far sturdier.
4. Syracuse Orange (167 points)
Coming into this season, we were told that Paul O'Donnell no longer had any eligibility. Of course, seeing him race on Saturday and finish 19th overall suggests otherwise. If we had known that he was returning to the NCAA this fall, then we would have ranked the Orange higher in our preseason rankings.
Regardless, the rest of this team ran incredibly well, packing together almost exactly like they did last year. They weren't the most overwhelming scoring group, but this team didn't have any major gaps.
O'Donnell (19th) was great, Perry Mackinnon (31st) had a solid debut for Syracuse, Sam Lawler (35th) showed respectable improvement, Assaf Harari (38th) picked up where he left off and Alex Comerford (44th) stepped up to be a significantly improved impact name.
And the best part?
Syracuse didn't even field their top low-stick, Nathan Lawler!
This team is going to need a bit more firepower as they venture into the postseason, but gosh, this was a much more impressive performance than I think some people may realize.
5. Villanova Wildcats (169 points)
There were pretty much no surprises here.
Liam Murphy (7th), Haftu Strintzos (11th) and Marco Langon (12th) proved to be the lethal scoring trio that we told you they would be during the regular season.
And those transfer additions? Yep, they delivered just as expected.
Xian Shively (59th) and Ryan Kredell (80th) certainly didn't blow us away, but they didn't have to. They just needed to be good enough which is exactly what happened.
Do we still worry about this team's depth after their top-five? Yes, I know I certainly do. But as far as their scoring contingent is concerned, I don't think the Wildcats are dramatically different from the Tar Heels -- and I think that shows in the team scores.
6. Air Force Falcons (189 points)
You'd think by now that I would learn not to doubt the Air Force men, huh?
Last year, the Falcons were fantastic. They had multiple low-sticks, were highly consistent, had interchangeable scorers and their depth was some of the best in the entire NCAA.
But after losing Ryan Johnson, Sam Gilman and Ethan Marshall -- the top-three scorers for this team at the national meet -- as well as Scott Maison, I just didn't know where this team would find any high-octane firepower. It also didn't help that Luke Combs had been absent from racing since last fall.
Of course, I probably should have given Sean Maison (15th) more respect, although in fairness, I was VERY close to having him in the top-20 of my predictions (which is easy to say now, but you get the point). With Combs (18th) returning to competition, it looked the Falcons had a nice nucleus of scorers to work with.
Max Sannes (36th) and Eli Bennett (43rd) were really solid middle-lineup contributors who brought great stability to this lineup. The Falcons' final scorer (Ryan Child) was a bit further back from that group in 77th place, but considering how many men this team lost from last year, that's a strong backend result.
And heck, Child was a better fifth scorer than what North Carolina or Villanova had.
7. Virginia Cavaliers (214 points)
This 7th place result was roughly on par with what I was expecting from the Virginia men.
However, I'll fully admit, I didn't expect Gary Martin to be the lead scorer for this group. The mile-centric distance talent earned an excellent 13th place finish to give his team some solid firepower to lean on.
Teammate Will Anthony (29th) also proved to be a highly valuable secondary scorer while Nathan Mountain (41st) and Jacob Hunter (53rd) kept the Cavaliers in check. Wes Porter (78th) closed out the team scoring while Conor Murphy (86th) and Justin Wachtel (97th) offered some decent insurance.
Having seven men finish inside the top-100 of this race is fairly unsurprising for a roster that's as deep as what the Cavaliers have. However, the middle portion of this lineup is going to need to improve if the Virginia men want to be favored for a top-10 finish at the national meet in November.
The good news is that I think Mountain, Porter and Wachtel can all make improvements in their next race, each to varying degrees.
8. Butler Bulldogs (259 points)
I tried to tell everyone that Butler is a much better team than people were giving them credit for. And luckily, they made me look good on Saturday, putting together a top-10 team finish with a very impressive top-four.
Florian Le Pallec, the graduate transfer from California Baptist, was due to have a big fall season, but a 9th place finish individual finish on Saturday morning almost perfectly replicates the scoring value that Barry Keane left behind.
And that's more than we needed from him.
Behind him, the Bulldogs stayed compact as William Zegarski, Matthew Forrester and Will Minnette went 45-47-52, respectively. That middle-lineup stability was nice to have in a big field like this. Yes, Jack McMahon (107th) had a bit of an "off" day, but he can certainly be better in the future and be closer to that three-man pack.
But maybe the most impressive part in all of this?
Butler didn't even have Jesse Hamlin, their 3000 meter All-American!
If they have their second lead scorer, then you're looking at a team finish closer to the Syracuse, Villanova and Air Force group. Don't sleep on the Bulldogs for much longer. They have one of the more complete lineups in the nation this fall.
9. Stanford Cardinal (275 points)
Oh boy, where do we even start?
Ky Robinson (3rd) did his job. It would've been nice if he was more closely in contention for the overall win, but a top-three finish is what he was expected to produce.
As for everyone else...well, it wasn't pretty.
Leo Young (46th) and Lex Young (75th) certainly weren't bad, but they didn't produce the scoring potency that we think they need to in order for this team to be on the podium in November. In fairness to them, this is only their first race of the season, so let's not overreact, but there is clearly some work to do for these Cardinal rookies.
Separately, Cole Sprout finished in 62nd place. And if we're just being blunt, that was a pretty poor result compared to the standards that he has set for himself. Do I think it was just a classic "off" day? Yes, I do. We know that he's 1000 times better than that, but his injury history from the last year paired with this performance didn't leave me super encouraged.
Zane Bergen (90th) had a decent race to close out the team's top-five, but Robert DiDonato (140th) is probably someone who should have been in the same range as the Young brothers and Sprout.
Would I hit the panic button if I was Stanford? No, not yet.
Maybe certain guys were sick. Maybe the Young brothers will be better when they get more experience. Maybe a lot of these men just had "off" days like everyone eventually does. Maybe Thomas Boyden can be a true low-stick when he returns to this lineup.
That's all speculation, but it could all be true.
There are a lot of ways that the Cardinal men can rebound over the next few months. However, for a team that was favored to win this race, it's hard to find many positives.
10. Eastern Kentucky Colonels (284 points)
I predicted that EKU would finish 10th and sure enough, they finished 10th!
Eastern Kentucky is a flat-out solid team. In fact, they're probably a bit better than we thought they were this past summer. Of course, we couldn't have known that Taha Er Raouy (21st) would be as good as he was.
Mohammed Jouhari (48th) and Ahmed Kadri (51st) provided great value at the second and third spots of this lineup while Abdelhakim Abouzouhir (69th) and Keeton Thornsberry (96th) did respectable jobs of giving this team a complete top-five.
This team doesn't exactly blow you away, but they've got some really solid talents and it seems like a few men who didn't score could make still significant improvements in their next race as well.
11. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (288 points)
Earlier today, I had a coach at a Power Five school text me, "Wake Forest can be national champions in 2025."
And I couldn't agree more.
This roster is laden with highly accomplished youngsters, many of whom could be scary-good with a couple more years of development. But one name in particular doesn't seemingly need multiple years of refinement to reach an elite level.
I am in complete awe of how Rocky Hansen (5th) ran.
He's a true freshman! He shouldn't be this good! At least not this early! I thought that a top-30 result would be considered a great result for Hansen, but a top-five finish? Losing only to Bosley, Wolfe, Robinson and Nokes?
That is INCREDIBLE company for any true rookie to be in.
Can Hansen replicate this kind of performance later in the season? How will he fare when he moves up to the 10k distance? How consistent can he be? I don't know the answers to those questions, but that result was unbelievably impressive for the Wake Forest ace.
Behind Hansen were Joseph O'Brien, Charlie Sprott and Luke Tewalt, a middle-lineup trio that went 57-61-67, respectively. Those first two men are redshirt freshmen while Tewalt is a prior All-American who can absolutely be better in the future. And if that happens, then the Demon Deacons would have finished much higher up in the team standings.
Gavin Ehlers (99th) was a bit further back to close out the scoring, but he wasn't that much worse than the fifth scorers for a lot of teams that finished ahead of Wake Forest. He also had some insurance with Weber Long placing 105th.
This team is far from a finished product. They still have A LOT of work to do. But a lot of these men, specifically Hansen, are ahead of schedule in terms of their fitness.
12. Colorado Buffaloes (318 points)
It seems weird to see a school as established as Colorado fall back to 12th place in this race. But this team just didn't have enough scoring potency. Austin Vancil (24th) was respectable, but has proven that he can be better. Paul Stafford (39th), meanwhile, had a fairly strong day.
However, from there, the Buffaloes saw a scoring drop-off. No one else on this team cracked the top-70. Noah Hibbard (74th) and James Overberg (76th) did enough to get by and Caleb Niednagel (106th) closed out the scoring before Colorado began to stack excessive points.
For the most part, all of the men in this top-five ran "just ok," and their teammates who finished behind them simply needed to be better.
With rookie star Kole Mathison just beginning to come back from a nagging injury (which he detailed on his Strava page), the rest of this Colorado roster will need to improve if they are going to be a top-10 team in the nation yet again.
13. Iowa State Cyclones (336 points)
I can't tell if this was a good race or a poor race for Iowa State.
Said Mechaal, the transfer from California Baptist, had a great day to earn a 23rd place finish. That was a nice fringe low-stick result that the Cyclones ended up needing. Meanwhile, Silas Winders (62nd) and Gable Sieperda (72nd) posted respectable results of their own.
However, the two Iowa State men who I thought could crack the top-20, Ezekiel Rop and Sanele Masondo, underwhelmed a bit. The former finished 84th and the latter finished 105th. Kelvin Bungei was the team's final scorer in 94th place.
To be blunt, Rop and Masondo need to be better.
The good news, however, is that I am extremely confident that they can be.
Rop had an unbelievable season on the track (over 1500 meters) this past spring and has a history of elite cross country performances from a few years ago. Masondo, meanwhile, was one of the best JUCO talents in the country last year and was even defeating All-American Patrick Kiprop last fall.
If those two men can run with Mechaal, then this team is going to be far more dangerous than what they showed us on Saturday.
14. Michigan Wolverines (344 points)
Tom Brady (28th) and Nick Foster (32nd) ran almost exactly how I expected them to. However, Luke Venhuizen (81st) was the only other Michigan runner in the top-100 while the Wolverines' final two scorers, Caleb Jarema and Michael Hancock, finished 102nd and 103rd, respectively.
Truthfully, there isn't much to say here. I can only shrug my shoulders and say, "Yeah, that seems about right." Michigan didn't have Oli Raimond, Zach Stewart or Owen MacKenzie this weekend. So while some people may have wanted a better performance, I think this is roughly what we expected to see from the Wolverines given the personnel who they fielded.
15. Princeton Tigers (353 points)
It's really hard to be surprised about anything that the Princeton men did in this race.
The Tigers' top-five scoring combination of Connor Nisbet, Nicholas Bendtsen, Anthony Monte, Daniel O'Brien and Myles Hogan didn't produce much firepower, but they were fairly compact and didn't have much excessive scoring at all.
Those five men who I just listed went 54-56-73-79-92, respectively, while four others crowded the top-135 spots behind them. And for the most part, this team is generally no different than they were last year which is neither a good thing nor a bad thing.
Men's Race: Rapid Fire Analysis
16. Utah State Aggies (364 points)
There's a possibility that the Utah State men earned a Kolas point or two with this result. They didn't necessarily have anyone who stunned us, but no one in their top-five had a legitimately poor race, either.
17. Washington Huskies (378 points)
It's super surprising to see Washington in 17th place given that Luke Houser (10th) and Tyrone Gorze (34th) offered great firepower for the Huskies. But after Leo Daschbach (65th), this team's depth essentially collapsed. Of course, something similar happened to this program last year at the Cowboy Jamboree and they (very slowly) rallied in the postseason. The end of their 2022 fall campaign wasn't amazing, but it was still solid.
18. Duke Blue Devils (456 points)
Austin Gabay (42nd) ran well, but there just wasn't enough backend support for Duke. They had a few decent efforts, but there are still a handful of improvements to be made moving forward. That said, I do think a few of these men have some untapped upside on the grass.
19. Navy Midshipmen (470 points)
With three men in the top-100, including one runner inside the top-50, this was a sneaky-good race for Navy. They had a massive drop-off after their third runner, but at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships, I don't know how much that will impact their lineup.
20. Charlotte 49ers (471 points)
Nickolas Scudder (16th) ran relatively well, although I'm sure he wanted something stronger. And outside of Aaron Rovnak (70th), I feel like a lot of these men probably could have been a bit better than what they showed on Saturday.
21. Providence Friars (490 points)
The Providence men were actually in a great position through three runners as Liam Back, Abdel Laadjel and Michael Morgan went 58-60-66, respectively. However, a huge drop-off to the team's final two scorers made it extremely challenging for the Friars to salvage a competitive result.
22. Georgetown Hoyas (496 points)
This team is probably better than what they showed, specifically because Peter Herold and Jackson Barna recorded DNF results. Those two men were expected to play significant roles for this squad in 2023. However, even if the Hoyas do show progress later in the season, they'll still have their hands full with a Mid-Atlantic region that features Villanova, Princeton and a fairly decent Navy team.
23. Columbia Lions (651 points)
I won't beat around the bush: This was a pretty rough day for Columbia. I do, however, like that they got some experience against high-end competition. I could still see them being somewhat competitive in the Northeast region later this fall.
Women's Race
1. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (48 points)
Was I surprised to see Elise Stearns take home the overall win? No.
Was I surprised to see Annika Reiss place 8th overall? Maybe a little bit, but I was by no means stunned.
Was I surprised to see Gracelyn Larkin place 9th? Nope, not at all.
However, seeing Keira Moore place 14th and Maggi Congdon place 16th was super impressive! We knew that this team had good depth, but having all five of your women finish in the top-16 of this race is something that I just didn't think the Lumberjacks could do without Ruby Smee and Maisie Grice.
With a handful of projected varsity runners missing from their lineup, the NAU women were still overwhelmingly dominant. Moore and Congdon were so much better than anything that their resumes had ever suggested. Sure, maybe Congdon was due for a big fall campaign after running 4:38 in the mile this past winter, but this was still a huge result.
So what's going to happen when NAU brings back Ruby Smee and Maisie Grice? How good will this team be? How close could they reasonably get to NC State?
I still feel like the Wolfpack are in a conversation entirely of their own right now, but just like we said in our preseason rankings, I struggle to see a scenario where the Lumberjack women ever have a poor race this fall.
2. Stanford Cardinal (104 points)
Even without Irene Riggs, the Stanford women were just as dangerous as many of us thought they would be going into this weekend.
Amy Bunnage was as good as advertised, posting a fantastic 6th place finish to act as the Cardinal's lead low-stick. Her firepower was then beautifully complemented by Lucy Jenks, Riley Stewart and Grace Connolly who went 20-22-24, respectively.
With the possible exception of Connolly, those results weren't surprising, but just because something wasn't surprising doesn't mean that it wasn't impressive. We've been saying that Jenks is a fringe low-stick for the last few weeks and I've been very high on the potential of Riley Stewart going into this fall.
But Connolly? Well, she was a really nice development that I wasn't expecting.
True freshman Sophia Kennedy finished 31st overall to close out the team's scoring. That's not too surprising given how strong she was at the prep level. Still, to know that Kennedy ran so well in her collegiate debut and still has room to improve should be super exciting for the Stanford coaching staff.
Things get interesting when we reach the Cardinal's sixth runner, Zofia Dudek. She struggled a bit at the end of the spring months and also underwhelmed at the U23 Polish Championships this past summer.
Going into this fall, it was hard to know if she was at 100%.
It doesn't look like Dudek was firing on all cylinders earlier today, but a 44th place finish is a decent result that should be respected. No, it's not anywhere close to her full potential, but this is a nice starting point for her that she can build from.
Oh, and by the way, Ava Parekh (49th) and Caroline Wells (55th) gave the Stanford women eight runners inside the top-60. That's incredible for a program that is going to be relying on a lot of younger runners this fall.
3. Virginia Cavaliers (123 points)
It may seem like I was insulting the Virginia women by predicting them to finish 6th place overall on Saturday.
That prediction, however, was made under the impression that Colorado would field Ella Baran and that Samree Dishon would have a great race. I also assumed that North Carolina would have Brynn Brown, but she didn't race and neither did Sasha Neglia or Ciara O'Shea.
Had I known all of that, then I would have projected the UVA women to have a stronger finish.
Margot Appleton (3rd) was unsurprisingly excellent, producing a low-stick result that was on the better end of what I thought was possible for her this weekend. She was also supported by Anna Workman (19th) who validated a sneaky-good 2022 fall campaign. Caroline Timm, a top mile-centric transfer from Kennesaw State, had a better-than-expected performance by placing 27th overall.
However, the real stunner for the Cavaliers was seeing Jenny Schilling place 23rd!
And I'll be honest...I have never heard of her before.
Schilling didn't have a single result listed on her TFRRS profile before Saturday. She's listed as a freshman on UVA's roster, but TFRRS shows her as a sophomore. Her high school marks were respectable, but by no means nationally competitive.
Now, Schilling is Virginia's third scorer in a lineup that cracked the top-10 at the national meet last year. That is a huge development for a team that was undeniably talented last fall, but also had certain women showing inconsistency at a variety of different points.
There was a bit of a drop-off to their fifth scorer, but Sophie Atkinson still ran plenty well with a 51st place finish. In fact, with rookies Gillian Bushee and Cate Desousa snagging top-70 results of their own, the Cavaliers' depth may be even better than last fall!
And don't forget, we didn't even see Tatum David, Camryn Menninger or Esther Seeland toe the line on Saturday. In theory, this Virginia cross country squad could be even better than what they showed us on their home course.
4. Washington Huskies (131 points)
Welp, I gotta hand it to the Washington women, they looked pretty strong on Saturday.
Returning Sophie O'Sullivan from her dominant European tour gave this team a low-stick result in 15th place while sophomore Chloe Foerster delivered on her upside to place 18th.
However, maybe the most important part of the Huskies' success this past weekend was seeing the trio of Julia David-Smith, India Weir and Ella Borsheim go 30-33-35, respectively. For each of those women, that was probably the best cross country race of their careers. They gave the Washington women far better depth than I was expecting them to have.
What's even more surprising is Tori Herman, the Kentucky graduate transfer and 2021 All-American, wasn't even a scorer! She had a bit of an "off" day in 78th place.
We've said that Washington's success this season will be determined by the improvements of their current sophomores. And sure enough, the Huskies were able to shatter expectations, despite Herman not being a scorer, thanks to Foerster, David-Smith and Borsheim.
5. Georgetown Hoyas (204 points)
If you had told me that Georgetown wasn't going to have Maggie Donahue in their lineup and that they were still going to place 5th, I don't think I would have believed you.
That, however, is exactly what happened.
I knew that Chloe Scrimgeour would be good this fall...but I didn't realize that she would be THIS good. A 2nd place finish on Saturday morning was monumental. This Hoya star just took down numerous top-ranked talents who are among the very best in the NCAA.
I wouldn't have been surprised if she had finished 9th or 10th, but earning the runner-up spot and keeping things competitive with Elise Stearns is unbelievably impressive.
However, arguably even more impressive was seeing Melissa Riggins, a traditional middle distance runner, post a huge 13th place finish! We knew that this western PA native could hold her own on the grass, but that's a borderline low-stick result which gave this team great firepower despite not having Donahue.
Chloe Gonzalez (39th) and Kelsey Swenson (43rd) offered great scoring stability at the third and fourth positions of this lineup. They did their jobs very well. However, the final Hoya scorer dropped all the way back to 119th place, sending Georgetown's final team score skyrocketing to 204 total points.
In our summer rankings, we expressed concern about Georgetown's limited depth. And at the Virginia Invitational, that exact aspect proved to be a challenge. Luckily, adding Donahue back into the mix will not only give the Hoyas a complete top-five, but it will also give them a significant scoring boost.
6. Iowa State Cyclones (231 points)
For the last few years, the Iowa State women have been rebuilding. They haven't made many flashy transfer moves and they didn't necessarily land any national-caliber high school megastars (although they did bring in a great recruiting class last year).
And yet, none of that seemingly matters nowadays.
The Cyclones were far from the flashiest team at the Virginia Invitational as they had no one finish inside the top-20. However, the Iowa State women fielded a complete top-five that didn't have any significant gaps and they still finished relatively high up in the results.
Both Madelynn Hill (25th) and Janette Schraft (31st) have been making subtle improvements over the last year or so and that showed on Saturday. Meanwhile, Dana Feyen (47th) continues to offer underrated scoring value while California Baptist transfer Maelle Porcher (58th) and Kiki Connell (72nd) closed out Iowa State's scoring group.
What's even better is that the Cyclones had two more women sneak just inside the top-100 to offer some decent depth. I also think that Feyen can be better in the future.
I figured Iowa State would be an improved team this fall, but this is way beyond where I thought they would be (or even could be) in 2023.
7. Michigan State Spartans (243 points)
I feel like we didn't learn anything new about Michigan State this weekend.
And no, I don't think that's a bad thing given how highly we already viewed this team.
Katie Osika (12th) proved to be a great low-stick yet again while Makenna Veen (37th) and Kaitlyn Hynes (46th) were exactly as good as we expected them to be. Through three runners, the Spartans gave us very few surprises.
However, we then saw EIGHT additional Michigan State women finish within 26 spots of each other, all within the top-100. Those runners were Meghan Beute (71st), Eleanor Kendell (79th), Emily Bardwell (80th), Judith Rector (83rd), Lauren Freeland (84th), Sarah Forsyth (87th), Grace Molloy (91st) and Olivia Millen (97th).
That is INSANE depth for any one program to have! The Spartans, in total, had 11 women crack the top-100. I sincerely don't know if there are any other programs in the NCAA that could have done that. And if there are, then I don't think it's many.
Of course, depth can only help a team so much. If Michigan State wants to be any better than they were on Saturday, then they need a few women from that backend group to step up. Luckily, I don't see a scenario where the Spartans have a poor race this fall.
8. Providence Friars (246 points)
While Providence may have fallen back from where I had predicted them to finish (5th), I actually believe that Saturday was a massively successful day.
Kimberly May (10th) gave this team a surprisingly great low-stick result that I don't think anyone was expecting her to produce. If she can keep that up throughout the rest of the season, then Providence could be a legitimate top-10 team.
Meanwhile, Shannon Flockhart (36th) and Lily Tuck (38th) offered great scoring value in their own right. Veteran Laura Mooney, while still not back to her top form, posted a respectable 68th place finish.
There was a big drop-off until the Friars' final scorer, Reese Fahys (102nd), crossed the line. But for a true freshman, that was a fairly solid result. And more importantly, this is a team that didn't field Annabelle Eastman or Jane Buckley!
On paper, the Providence women can cut down on a massive amount of points by adding those two women back into their projected lineup.
9. Colorado Buffaloes (254 points)
Alright, everyone calm down. This is not nearly as bad of a result as you think it is.
Yes, we thought the Colorado women would be FAR better than 9th place on Saturday. Heck, we even thought that they could win this meet!
But we also thought that they were going to have Ella Baran on Saturday, someone who was viewed as a top-20 talent in this field. And of course, who would have guessed that Samree Dishon would have a tough "off" day and leave Colorado with one less low-stick?
Emily Covert (5th) was fantastic as expected and Karrie Baloga (21st) had a very strong collegiate debut despite her rookie status. Katie Doucette (57th) also ran fairly well.
However, this team didn't have Bailey Hertenstein, Natalie Cook, Marlee Starliper, Ella Baran, Hannah Miniutti or Abbey Nechanicky. And again, Dishon is an All-American who was expected to be SO much better than she was.
To be blunt: There is zero reason to worry about Colorado...at least for now.
10. Syracuse Orange (269 points)
I gotta hand it to Syracuse, they put together a great race on Saturday. While I still have significant concerns and questions about this team's postseason viability, I did like how compact everyone in their top-five was.
Savannah Roark (41st) could have been 20 spots better, but she still held her own. However, what was more surprising was seeing how close her teammates were to her.
The combination of Rylie Lusk, Olivia Joly, Sophia Jacobs-Townsley and Baneet Bains went 50-54-59-67, respectively, in the overall results. For a team that lost so many key runners after last fall, Coach Raynee Revard was able to reload this team fairly quickly; three of those four listed women were transfers or graduate transfers.
I would still like to see what this team can do throughout the rest of the season, but there is clearly enough scoring value for the Orange to return to the national meet in November.
11. North Carolina Tar Heels (288 points)
In the grand scheme of things, the North Carolina women actually ran fairly well. Fatima Alanis (26th) and Eva Klingbeil (28th) looked like fringe lead scorers while Kelsey Harrington (63rd) and Ava Dobson (65th) allowed the Tar Heels to stay competitive.
North Carolina's fifth runner finished 120th overall, but that largely doesn't matter much. The Tar Heels didn't field Brynn Brown, Sasha Neglia or Ciara O'Shea. Plus, Harrington could have been 50 spots better!
Don't hit the panic button with this team, it's not necessary. If anything, Chapel Hill fans should be thrilled to see Alanis and Klingbeil offer great scoring value at the front of this lineup.
12. Duke Blue Devils (298 points)
This was a pleasant surprise! Everyone knows how good Amina Maatoug is (she placed 7th), but the rest of this lineup was better in a variety of areas than they had previously shown.
Emily Cole (42nd) finally translated her steeplechase success to the grass while Charlotte Tomkinson (62nd) had the best cross country race of her career despite being a middle distance-centric runner.
Karly Forker (90th) was fairly solid in her season debut while Julia Fenerty (110th) did just enough to keep Duke competitive. But frankly, it would have taken a lot of excessive scoring for this team to fall any lower than 12th place.
The Blue Devils are far from perfect, but they are clearly a team that has significantly improved. They likely picked up some extremely valuable Kolas points and may now have a shot at qualifying for the NCAA XC Championships.
13. Elon Phoenix (359 points)
Whoa! Elon! Who saw this coming?
Last fall, the Elon women had a decent team. They were not at all threats to qualify for the national meet, but they finished 10th at Paul Short and 7th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships, 10 points behind Kentucky.
The Phoenix had respectable distance talents, but we didn't see anything suggesting that this group of women were going to be this competitive on Saturday!
The trio of Katie Blount, Hattie Reynolds and Jette Beermann were surprisingly great, going 48-52-56, respectively, in the overall results. And sure, they didn't have a true national-caliber low-stick, but that didn't seem to matter.
Madison Synowiec (73rd) provided sneaky-good value at the fourth scoring position compared to a few others. And while the Phoenix did have their fifth runner drop to 155th place, the top-four of this lineup was simply good enough to get them past other nationally competitive programs (and beat Northwestern on a tie-breaker).
I have no idea what to expect from this team moving forward, and I don't imagine that they have a super high ceiling, but this Elon squad has certainly captured my attention.
14. Northwestern Wildcats (359 points)
If you're Northwestern, I think you gotta be pretty happy about this result. After losing two highly valuable lead scorers in Rachel McCardell and Ari Marks, snagging a top-15 finish in this field is very respectable.
Just like a handful of other teams who we have spoken about, Northwestern didn't have any flashy firepower, but you were still able to find many/most of their scorers in the top-100 of the results.
Katherine Hessler (45th), Ava Earl (66th), Anna Delgado (69th), Maddy Whitman (88th) and Kalea Bartolotto (104th) gave this team a fairly complete top-five. And while they didn't have any focal low-stick leading the way, Bartolotto has proven that she can be so much better than she was on Saturday.
There's still some untapped upside remaining within this Northwestern program. Don't sleep on them, especially when they reach the BIG 10 XC Championships.
15. Ohio State Buckeyes (370 points)
Is this a good result for Ohio State?
No.
Am I worried about them?
Also no.
The Buckeyes have been battling some team-wide illness over the last week or two. And for a team that has zero margin for error when it comes to their top-three runners, that is a major challenge to overcome.
For example, Addie Engel (11th) and Daniella Santos (26th) were about as good as we thought they would be. Sure, we thought Engel would be better, but generally speaking, the scoring structure of this team looked great through two runners.
Usually, Andrea Kuhn is the third runner who finishes next to (or near) Santos. However, she was absent from Saturday's race and the same could be said for Morgan Schmitt, a projected scorer for this team in 2023.
So sure, maybe Ohio State didn't have a great day, but when they have a full lineup that is healthy, they are not a team that you can take lightly.
Women's Race: Rapid Fire Analysis
16. Columbia Lions (405 points)
Wow, Phoebe Anderson (4th) was awesome! I knew she would be good, but her result on Saturday far exceeded my expectations. Overall, Columbia ran well. I don't know if they'll get a ton of Kolas points from this race, but they should be even more competitive in 2023 than they were last fall despite losing Victoria Patterson.
17. Air Force Falcons (446 points)
Not having anyone in the top-75 is certainly going to limit how far any team in this field could realistically go. However, four women in the top-100 is still pretty strong and it seems like there's still room for Halle Hamilton to improve after showcasing some flashes of brilliance throughout last fall.
18. Utah State Aggies (476 points)
Not having Anna Weaver for this race was a pretty big hit and it showed in the results. But if she does come back at/near top form, then the Aggies should become more competitive.
19. Liberty Flames (535 points)
Sure, 19th place was probably not the team result that Liberty was looking for. Even so, I was happy to see Adelyn Fairley (34th) back in action. She's a sneaky-good talent and someone to keep an eye on.
20. Navy Midshipmen (548 points)
There's not much to talk about when it comes to the Navy women, but my goodness, Emily Boutin had a fantastic race! A 17th place finish is huge considering that she was 11th at the Mid-Atlantic Regional XC Championships and 39th at Joe Piane last fall, two meets that were not nearly as competitive as the Virginia Invitational.
21. Charlotte 49ers (551 points)
Nice effort by Lauren Johnston who placed 75th, but this team lost so many women from last fall. They're in a bit of a rebuild and are also being tasked with switching conferences from the C-USA to the AAC -- this is a big transition year for the 49ers.
22. Eastern Kentucky Colonels (596 points)
Not a whole lot to talk about here, but Bahiya El Arfaoui did post a solid 74th place finish as just a freshman. The good news for Eastern Kentucky is that they were still within reasonable striking distance of ASUN rivals, Liberty.
23. James Madison Dukes (637 points)
You can't really blame JMU. There was a nationally competitive meet happening less than an hour away. For a team that doesn't seem to have a massive budget for traveling (which is just speculation), taking advantage of local competition and this kind of experience was understandable.
