PREDICTIONS & PREVIEWS: 2023 D3 Pre-Nationals

TSR Collaboration
Oct 5, 2023
14 min read

Written by Kevin Fischer, Conor Daly & Gavin Struve

Edits and additional commentary via Gavin Struve & Garrett Zatlin

One of the biggest Division Three regular season meets has arrived right as we enter the second month, and near the mid-point, of the 2023 cross country season!

D3 Pre-Nationals figures to live up to its namesake as an event that will give us a taste of what we can expect on the national meet course in the middle of next month. The field features a small handful of podium-contending teams on both the men's and women's sides as well as some top individuals.

Below, we asked a handful of our TSR contributors to give their thoughts on some of the more interesting headlines and pre-race talking points. Here's what they had to say...

Click here to see entries

Click here to see predictions

Who has the greatest chance at being a breakout team in relation to their preseason expectations (men or women)?

Kevin: Relative to preseason expectations, I like the Claremont-Mudd-Scripps women to impress. We talked about the Athenas last week and their impressive start to the season at UC Riverside and the Master's XC Invitational.

They may be ranked at TSR #10 heading into our first in-season update, but with how they have been performing so far this fall, there aren't nine teams (in Division Three) that are better than them.

Natalie Bitetti has been unsurprisingly great, but the emergence of Elle Marsyla and an improved supporting cast led by Riley Capuano has reshaped how we view this team. If this group continues their momentum, then they will finish no worse than runner-up in this field.

Conor: They’re definitely doing things right over at Claremont-Mudd-Scripps for both the men’s and women’s teams. I think that the CMS men are going to have a breakout day come Saturday. We have the Stags listed as an "Honorable Mention" team in our preseason rankings, but they have already shown that they may be better than that.

At the UC Riverside XC Invitational, the west coast stalwart ran very well. They were in the same race as the Pomona-Pitzer men who fielded a full lineup. And although the Stags were not close to beating the Sagehens, they more than held their own. The CMS men averaged only 19 seconds slower per runner than our TSR #3 team. That’s a reassuring margin for a team that was not even projected to be a top-10 group this fall.

Not to mention, CMS didn’t field their top runner in Adam Sage for that race. If they add in Sage (as they're expected to) and continue their positive momentum, we could see an impressive team performance from them this weekend.

Gavin: Despite a mid-September win over rival Williams (TSR #6) at the Little Three Championships, the Amherst women feel like they’re still flying a bit under the radar. Perhaps that can be attributed to their most recent result which was a 3rd place team finish at the Bard College Fred Pavlich Invitational, but that came without their top group.

The Amherst women also won their season-opener, narrowly out-dueling a respectable WPI program at Smith College. Make no mistake, the Mammoths were already an "Honorable Mention" team for our preseason top-10 team rankings and were most certainly on our radar. But if they can produce another strong team result and perhaps best the Ephs yet again, then Amherst figures to be a top-10 team when our first rankings update comes around.

What’s one question you have about an individual in this men’s field that you look forward to being answered on Saturday?

Kevin: I am curious to see how Gavin Grass of George Fox will perform against a national-caliber field following a breakout track season in which he ran 9:02 for the 3000 meter steeplechase.

So far this fall, we have only seen Grass against Division One competition which, admittedly, isn't the best indicator of where he stands given the lack of equivalent comparisons. The Oregon-based distance runner was 147th last fall at the cross country national meet, but if his success from the spring can carry over, then he has the potential to be an All-American candidate in Division Three.

This weekend should answer some questions as to how legitimate his potential is.

Conor: I’m wondering how John Lucey of Williams is going to stack up against a national-caliber field. Lucey had a breakout day at the 2022 NCAA XC Championships last fall to place 18th. That performance was almost too good relative to expectations, leaving us to wonder if that was closer to his ceiling or a true measure of his ability.

So far this fall, we have seen Lucey win some smaller regional fields, but have yet to see him face a true test. Luckily for us, that’s exactly what he has in store Saturday.

Thus far, Lucey is running over 40 seconds faster than he did last year over the same courses, so I would bet that he is going to validate himself as a top-20 contender once more. Still, I want to see him prove it before I become too sure of that estimation.

Gavin: Forgive me for picking a name off the top of the proverbial stack, but I’m really interested to see another race from Sam Acquaviva (MIT).

The Engineer star came into this season as a proven multi-time All-American and the preeminent low-stick for a likely podium squad. However, he was a bit underwhelming in his one race to date this fall, finishing behind three Williams runners and a teammate in what was effectively a dual meet at the Williams Purple Valley XC Invite.

He’ll have his hands full both in the individual race and when helping his squad win the team race at Pre-Nationals, but I expect a return to form. While Acquaviva had a lofty placement as our TSR #5 runner in our preseason top-20 individual rankings, I think a top-five finish in this setting would be reassuring progression from his last showing.

On a scale of 1 to 10, how likely is it that the Williams women will avenge their loss to MIT from their home meet two weeks ago?

Kevin: Maybe a "3."

Anything can happen, but I don't really see the Ephs pulling off the victory here, especially since Kirsi Rajagopal, who did not compete at the Purple Valley XC Invite, is listed in the entries for MIT.

The only thing that I think gives Williams a chance is if Ella Ball and Molly Fitzgibbons perform up to our preseason expectations. They both have had slightly underwhelming starts to the season, but if they can finish high up in this field, then the Ephs will have a fighting chance.

Conor: I’m going to say "3" as well.

MIT’s showing on Williams’ home course was a dominant one, and it’s hard to draw up a situation in which MIT would falter this weekend.

Admittedly, their showdown from two weeks ago wasn’t all that close. MIT put their first four runners in front of Williams’ second scorer. The Engineers also had their sixth runner within 10 seconds of their fifth runner, showing us that they were braced for the possibility of a scorer having an "off" day.

This is not to say that Williams could not flip the script. The Ephs have three true low-sticks in Genna Girard, Ella Ball and Molly Fitzgibbons. Unfortunately, the latter duo has not looked like themselves in their first two races. Of course, if all three of them perform as we think they are capable of, then we could even see three Williams runners before MIT’s first scorer.

Even though that outcome could theoretically result in a Williams win, MIT’s depth is more than capable of absorbing that firepower and giving the Engineers the win once again.

Gavin: The Williams women have found themselves behind a couple of regional rivals in the early going this fall. The most concerning development for the Ephs has been the slow start for Fitzgibbons who we largely expected to be this team’s top low-stick this season. She finished outside of the top-10 in three different modest fields in September.

It would be a bridge too far to suggest Fitzgibbons has been “bad,” although she doesn’t appear to (currently) hold the same form she carried a year ago en route to finishing as a top-half All-American. It’s been much of the same, to a lesser extent, for low-stick teammate Ella Ball, although third star Genna Girard looked sharp in her debut last time out.

Of course, it's also fair to point out that the Ephs had a slow-ish start to their 2022 fall campaign and ended up lighting up the results in their postseason races. Could we see a similar scenario in 2023?

All of this is to say, it would take a considerable improvement upon what they’ve shown so far this season to beat MIT. And while that’s far from impossible, it also seems unlikely as we near the season’s midpoint.

But with the idea that a serious field like this one could motivate the Ephs in a new way and bring the potential for a new scoring dynamic, I’ll give them a “4” in terms of the likelihood of beating the Engineers.

Who do you feel most confident about winning this race among the men ranked in our top-10 individuals (preseason): Simon Heys, Sam Acquaviva, Lucas Florsheim, Cory Kennedy or Colin Kirkpatrick?

Kevin: I like Simon Heys to win the men's race. After closing his 2023 spring campaign with a strong PR and a 3rd place result in the 10,000 meter finals at the outdoor national meet, he has carried every bit of that momentum to the grass with a fantastic runner-up result at the All-Ohio XC Challenge.

One of the most experienced high-level talents in Division Three, Heys has proven himself over the years as somebody who performs very well against highly talented fields and I don't think this weekend will be any different.

As far as the other contenders, I don't love how Colin Kirkpatrick and Acquaviva have started their seasons, but their talent is undeniable, so you can't count them out.

I think Florsheim and Kennedy have the best chance outside of Heys to pull off the victory. Both of those guys have been high-end cross country All-Americans and national qualifiers on the track, and neither of them have put a wrong foot forward in September. They will give Heys a serious challenge.

Conor: I think it’s going to be the year of Lucas Florsheim. I’ll take him for the win.

The 5k/10k specialist is built for cross country, backed by his pair of top-20 marks at the cross country national meet. He’s got a lot riding on this race for his team and I think he’s going to fight for every point to pull out the win. He’s off to a spectacular start with a 12th place finish against quality Division One and Division Two competition at UC Riverside.

I see Heys as a close runner-up. He has comparable experience to Florsheim at past national meets, but I don’t see him as someone who’s off to as quick of a start as Florsheim this fall.

As for the others, they all leave me concerned for one reason or another. Acquaviva just hasn’t looked like himself after missing competition from last spring. Kennedy may not have the same upside that I see in his competitors and Kirkpatrick has not been able to (or at least not yet) fully and consistently transfer his steeple fitness to the grass.

Gavin: While Acquaviva and Florsheim may seem like they hold the most upside in this group, Heys and Kennedy feel like they have the highest floors. I’ll take the latter as my pick to win given that he has no blemishes on his resume this season, if only because he has a smaller sample size than Heys who lost to a top D2 talent at the All-Ohio XC Challenge.

Kennedy went three-for-three in earning All-American honors during the cross country, indoor track and outdoor track seasons during the 2022-23 academic year. This weekend could be his coming out party as one of the absolute best men in the nation, perhaps worthy of an even loftier perch than our TSR #8 ranking that we afforded him during the preseason.

The most overlooked individual in the women’s race is ___.

Kevin: Hope Murphy of Baldwin Wallace.

I didn't list her as one of the candidates to win, but she would have been the next name in line. I think a lot of people don't look at her as an elite cross country talent largely because her greatest successes have come on the track. But despite that, she is more than capable of holding her own in this type of field.

Murphy can be a bit inconsistent at times which was reflected with an underwhelming season debut at the All-Ohio XC Challenge. Even so, she bounced back in a big way with a win at Ohio Wesleyan. If Murphy is at her best this weekend, then she has the ability to be right up there in the front pack, giving some of these preseason top-20 names a run for their money.

Conor: I think Emma Palumbo (St. Lawrence) is a name that doesn’t get as much attention as she deserves. She had a very good cross country campaign last year, and although she didn’t necessarily have the national meet performance to back it up, she did finish 5th at the Mideast Regional XC Championships.

Since then, the St. Lawrence ace has run very solid marks of 10:08 (3k) and 17:59 (5k) along with pursuing the steeplechase on the side. Now that she’s turned her attention back to running on flat land, she’s opened up her season with some very regionally competitive results in the northeast. I look forward to seeing what Palumbo is able to do when she has the chance to toe the line with some of the nation’s best this weekend.

Gavin: Kevin went so far as to list her as a contender to win this race, so I don’t think we’re overlooking her, but I’m not sure much of the country is as aware of Grace Hadley’s cross country chops as they will be after this season.

She truly broke out on the track this past spring, finishing 6th over 5000 meters at the 2023 outdoor national meet, but this is someone who didn’t even reach the 2022 cross country national meet before running strong personal bests of 4:57 (mile) and 16:53 (5k) in the early months of 2023.

Regardless of whether she wins or is close to doing so this weekend, I think it is likely that Hadley, and perhaps the WPI women’s team, will make herself a name that won’t be overlooked going forward.

Which men’s team has the most to prove on Saturday? Why?

Kevin: I think John Carroll has the most to prove. After opening the season as a "Just Missed" team in our preseason rankings, they have had an underwhelming start to the season.

They ran what was largely a "B" team last week at the Ohio Wesleyan Invitational, so not much can be taken from that. But finishing behind an Otterbein team that has lost Cal Yackin and Bill Daily at the All-Ohio XC Challenge wasn't the best sign.

The Blue Streaks have an opportunity this weekend to right the ship and we will hopefully see Ethan Domitrovich and Dominic Delmoro return to racing. That should be a nice boost for this group as they look to spark some momentum.

Conor: You would think that since the MIT men are the defending national champions that they wouldn’t have much to prove, but after a quieter start to their 2023 fall campaign, that’s not the case. The Engineers have only raced against Division Three competition once this fall when they went head-to-head with Williams. And truthfully, the Engineers didn’t look very good that day.

If the MIT men redeem themselves this weekend, then all will be forgotten about their early-season slip up. But if not, then it may be fair to start asking where in the podium conversation this team sits (if at all).

I’m particularly interested to see how Vedang Lad bounces back. The 10k national qualifier for the 2023 NCAA Outdoor Championships is usually as reliable as can be on the grass, although he settled as the Engineers’ fourth runner in his last time out. Could that have been an intentionally conservative race from him and maybe his teammates?

If Lad is able to show us that he is the likely All-American contender that we first thought, then we will feel much better about the trajectory of this squad.

How many different women can realistically win this race? Who’s your favorite?

Kevin: There are six women who wouldn't shock me by winning this race: Kayla Aalpoel (George Fox), Natalie Bitetti (Claremont-Mudd-Scripps), Genna Girard (Williams), Grace Hadley (WPI), Gillian Roeder (MIT) and Kate Sanderson (MIT).

Ultimately, I see this coming down to Bitetti and Girard who have both started out their seasons with some excellent efforts. However, I have to give a slight edge to Girard.

Not only did she already beat two of the names who I listed, but she did so in dominant fashion. After missing the outdoor track season following a 2nd place finish over 5000 meters at the 2023 indoor national meet, Girard has shown us that she is not only ready to compete this fall, but that she is at as high of a level as she has ever been.

Conor: I agree with Kevin’s six names. I really wanted to add MIT ace, Olivia Rosenstein, to the list, but she’s not entered. Likewise, the Williams duo of Ball and Fitzgibbons have the raw talent needed to win, but both have been off to uncharacteristically slower starts this fall.

I can’t pick against Girard for the individual win for many of the same reasons that Kevin has already articulated. She’s looked untouchable so far this fall.

That being said, it is worth noting that the course is considered fairly hilly which tends to favor true distance-centric athletes. This causes me to foresee a strong challenge from Kayle Aalpoel who typically thrives in more aerobic, strength-based settings. She’s a true cross country specialist and is off to a hot start.

Gavin: My proverbial “winner’s circle” is smaller than that of my colleagues. I think Aalpoel, Bitetti and Girard are the main contenders. And because of how sharp those women have been, I think it’s unlikely that the 2023 women’s Pre-Nationals champion comes from someone outside of those select few names.

While I’m tempted to choose Aalpoel, I’ll join Kevin and Conor in projecting Girard as the winner. It’s hard to bet against someone who recently beat two other women (Roeder and Sanderson) who Kevin listed as worthy contenders by nearly a minute.

Which men’s team has the best chance at playing spoiler to MIT and Pomona-Pitzer in this field?

Kevin: I could potentially see either RPI or Williams pulling off an upset victory, but between those two, I'd give RPI the better chance.

MIT, so far doesn't, look quite as sharp as their TSR #2 preseason ranking would indicate, but Pomona-Pitzer looks to be exactly what we thought they were, so the Sagehens are surely the favorites this weekend.

Even so, RPI has impressed me so far this fall. Even though they haven't run their "A" team against serious competition yet, their sweep of their home meet with a top-five time spread of under 30 seconds was a really solid start to the campaign.

We knew going into the season that RPI would have a deep group, but this meet will be the first true test of whether they can avoid getting broken up by a high-caliber field. If they can pass that test, then they absolutely have a chance to pull off the upset.

Conor: RPI has a serious chance to spoil the party if things fall into place. Coming into the season, we knew that they had the depth to compete with any team in the nation, but we were unsure if they had the requisite firepower to do so.

All of that is still true going into this weekend.

RPI is not going to win via their first three scorers. In fact, it’s more likely than not that RPI will be in a deficit through three runners -- but that's ok. All RPI needs is for their front trio of Cory Kennedy, Mitchell Dailey and Vince Simonetti to hang just close enough to the front pack to minimize scoring losses.

The strength of this RPI squad comes from letting their backend scorers do what they do best and finish ahead of their MIT and Pomona-Pitzer counterparts. If those final scorers finish high enough in the race, then that could ultimately be enough for RPI to pull out the upset win.

Gavin: While RPI’s lineup construction seems most conducive to pulling an upset, I’ll go with Williams as the group most likely to upset Pomona-Pitzer and MIT, largely because we’ve already seen them defeat the latter.

Granted, that was in a much smaller field, but that win had to give Lucey and his Ephs teammates confidence after putting three men ahead of MIT's top scorer at their home meet.

I don’t see the Engineers or Sagehens being beaten by any other team, but the fact that the Ephs have already defeated one of the two favorites in this field this season makes them the most likely to do so again if it does happen this weekend.