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PREDICTIONS: 2024 BIG 12 XC Championships
- Rachel Hickey
- Oct 30, 2024
- 7 min read
Written by Rachel Hickey, edits & additional commentary via Garrett Zatlin
The BIG 12 XC Championship has always been a strong and respectable conference meet for the last few years. However, schools such as Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Texas have mostly dominated the conference.
However, following the recent wave of conference realignment, new long distance powers have entered the BIG 12. In turn, this weekend's meet has suddenly become one of the most top-heavy meets that you'll see all year -- regular season or postseason.
The men's race features three of our top-four teams in the nation while the women's race features three of our top-10 teams in the country. Simply put, the level of talent in the BIG 12 is arguably the best in the NCAA between both the men and the women -- and you can expect to see plenty of fireworks on Friday.
Women’s Individual Race (6k)
Ceili McCabe (West Virginia)
Lexy Halladay-Lowry (BYU)
Juliet Cherubet (Texas Tech)
Jenna Hutchins (BYU)
Joy Naukot (West Virginia)
Erin Vringer (Utah)
Judy Chepkoech (Arizona State)
Carmen Alder (BYU)
Maelle Porcher (Iowa State)
Mckaylie Caesar (Utah)
Ruth Kimeli (Baylor)
Anastasia Chepkorir (Texas Tech)
Tecla Lokrale (West Virginia)
Riley Chamberlain (BYU)
Victoria Lagat (Oklahoma State)
Sivan Auerbach (Oklahoma State)
Taylor Lovell (BYU)
Abbey Nechanicky (Colorado)
Morgan Jensen (Utah)
Taylor Rohatinsky (BYU)
Analysis: Numerous heavy-hitters in this field will battle up-front in the newly refurbished BIG 12 conference. The addition of teams such as Utah and Arizona State bring even more individual talent to the forefront of this already-loaded race.
Ceili McCabe (TSR #5) should, in theory, be the favorite to take home the individual crown. Of course, she is certainly not without highly-talented company.
In McCabe’s last BIG 12 showing on the grass in 2022, she stormed away with the title and has placed as high as 3rd individually at the NCAA XC Championships. The West Virginia superstar is a highly experienced veteran who rarely ever has a truly poor outing. And with the performances that we have already seen from her this fall, McCabe appears to be rounding into top form quite nicely.
However, McCabe will likely not be alone in this race as nationally-ranked standouts such as BYU’s Lexy Halladay-Lowry and Texas Tech’s Juliet Cherubet are more than capable of earning gold. Both of those women have flexed the aerobic strength and the sustainable speed that are necessary to run away with the crown.
Halladay-Lowry took home the individual win at the Joe Piane Invite back in September. In turn, she proved that she is fully capable of reigning victorious in hotly-contested fields such as this.
Cherubet, meanwhile, also pulled out an individual victory this season at the Arturo Barrios Invite. There, she took down the course record held by none other than NCAA legend, Parker Valby!
Other women such as Joy Naukot (West Virginia) and Judy Chepkoech (Arizona State) are still new to the NCAA. Even so, it's clear that both ladies exude tons of raw talent and fitness. Don't be surprised if one of those women stays with the top pack for longer than expected.
This could also be a big race for BYU's Jenna Hutchins and Utah's Erin Vringer as they attempt to further validate their highly impressive performances from earlier this fall.
Men’s Individual Race (8k)
Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)
Solomon Kipchoge (Texas Tech)
Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)
Ernest Cheruiyot (Texas Tech)
Casey Clinger (BYU)
Robin Kwemoi Bera (Iowa State)
Patrick Kiprop (Cincinnati)
Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State)
Victor Shitsama (Oklahoma State)
Joey Nokes (BYU)
Joash Ruto (Iowa State)
Creed Thompson (BYU)
Laban Kipkemboi (Oklahoma State)
Aidan Troutner (BYU)
James Corrigan (BYU)
Sanale Masando (Iowa State)
Said Mechaal (Iowa State)
Ryan Shoppe (Oklahoma State)
Dean Casey (Colorado)
Isaiah Givens (Colorado)
Analysis: This men’s individual race will be ELECTRIC!
Out of the 20 men listed here, 17 were featured in our recent TSR individual rankings update. That means that 17 of the top-50 names in the country are vying for one conference title!
Two additional names made our "Honorable Mentions" section or our "Just Missed" list, leaving this overwhelming field with even more crazy depth. Simply put, we would expect this race to become a very fast bloodbath on Friday.
On paper, Brian Musau likely comes into this race as the individual favorite...depending on who you ask. He currently sits at our TSR #2 spot. However, more importantly, this is the same guy who defeated Habtom Samuel in a head-to-head matchup earlier this season. If Musau is able to replicate that kind of result on Friday, then there is a very good chance that he walks away with the title.
Joining Musau could be a large host of his teammates, many of whom are capable of racing with the elite star for most of this race. Look out for Denis Kipngetich as he is likely the one whose skillset favors how this battle may play out.
Some may argue that the Red Raider duo of Solomon Kipchoge and Ernest Cheruiyot could produce the individual title winner. Kipchoge did, after all, soundly defeat Cheruiyot at the Arturo Barrios Invite earlier this year in an insanely fast times of 22:01 for 8000 meters.
Even so, we still don't know much about Kipchoge other than he is an ultra-fast half-marathoner. Seeing him go up against the best field that he has faced this season (by far) will be a very interesting subplot.
It feels odd to only passively mention other men such as Casey Clinger (BYU), Joash Ruto (Iowa State), Robin Kwemoi Bera (Iowa State) and Patrick Kiprop (Cincinnati). Each of those men will likely make their presence known up front. In fact, the latter two may opt to be aggressors while the former is arguably the most experienced distance star in this field.
Women’s Team Race
BYU Cougars
Utah Utes
West Virginia Mountaineers
Oklahoma State Cowgirls
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Analysis: This should be a somewhat dominant victory for the women of BYU.
Following their (slightly) surprising win at Pre-Nationals a few weeks prior, the Cougars took our TSR #1 team ranking slot ahead of conference championship weekend -- and deservedly so!
The Cougars will be led by low-stick Lexy Halladay-Lowry who will certainly be in the hunt for the individual win. Behind her, both Jenna Hutchins and Carmen Alder have run fantastically so far this fall, offering more upfront scoring potency on a more consistent basis compared to last year.
Further scoring potency from Riley Chamberlain (who had a quietly clutch race at Pre-Nationals by placing 27th) and rookie Nelah Roberts, as well as tons of great depth, makes this team seemingly untouchable in this more condensed field.
That said, the Utah women could provide a challenge, albeit a distant one.
Erin Vringer has been a reliable low-stick up front for the women from Salt Lake City. Behind her, All-PAC-12 performer Mckaylie Caesar will provide a secondary low-stick ace for this team to counter the firepower of West Virginia.
However, the firepower that those two women bring to the table is simply no match for BYU in a head-to-head battle. Morgan Jensen and Katarzyna Nowakowska should offer enough scoring stability, but we'll be interested to see if Anna Peters can get back to the All-American form that she showcased last year.
West Virginia, meanwhile, will be hungry to further validate their shocking 4th-place finish from Pre-Nationals where they only had five women finish the race!
Ceili McCabe and Joy Naukot are two of the best low-sticks in the nation right now, giving the Mountaineers an elite 1-2 punch. But how will the remainder of their lineup fare in this condensed field? Can they keep up with the scoring reinforcements of Utah?
And what about Tecla Lokrale? She entered the NCAA earlier this summer with head-turning credentials, but she produced a DNF in her last outing. What does a return, and a complete race, look like for her? She is still a major x-factor.
Oklahoma State isn't expected to contend for a top-three finish, but they have a fairly complete lineup. That, in theory, should be good enough to fend off Texas Tech's potent low-stick duo of Cherubet and Anastasia Chepkorir...I think.
Men’s Team Race
1. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2. BYU Cougars
3. Iowa State Cyclones
4. Colorado Buffaloes
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Analysis: Unless something catastrophic happens, Oklahoma State is winning this race...right? Sure, they'll need to battle top-tier teams in BYU and Iowa State, but the Cowboys have simply proven to boast too much overwhelming firepower.
A sea of orange will likely pack the front of this race. In fact, it is very possible that all seven (or eight) Cowboys will place within the top-20 in this field. That's especially possible when you consider that their top-seven individuals all fall within our top-50 individual rankings.
There are simply too many low-sticks and too much firepower to see any team other than Oklahoma State emerging victorious in Waco, Texas on Friday.
However, another team with truly impressive depth that could split the Cowboy’s pack just enough to sneak what would be a massive upset victory. Of course, we are referring to the Cougars of BYU, who also have a highly potent top-five spread.
Led by the experience of Casey Clinger, the Cougars’ supporting pack of Joey Nokes, Creed Thompson, Aidan Troutner and James Corrigan offers lethal firepower in a less saturated field. BYU could also put all five scorers within the top-20 of this field, but even on a perfect day, it is hard to imagine the men from Provo upsetting the Cowboys.
There is a legitimate avenue for the Iowa State men to beat BYU, especially with the 8:22 steeplechaser Joash Ruto finally listed in the entries. If he does run, then he gives the Cyclones one more low-stick ace to lean on. He also gives BYU less margin for error.
Of course, beating BYU would also require nearly everyone on Iowa State to have their very best day -- and hope that the Cougars slip up somewhere in their top-five.
